Till von Wachter: Prevent the Damage of Unemployment Before Workers Get Laid Off

May 24, 2012

In this week’s installment of the Next American Economy breakfast series, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter hosted Columbia economics professor Till von Wachter for a discu

In this week’s installment of the Next American Economy breakfast series, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter hosted Columbia economics professor Till von Wachter for a discussion of the serious damage unemployment can have on workers. Wachter points out that severe job losses during recessions harm not only short-term earnings but also lifetime career earnings, health, family, and even “short- and long-term mortality.” Those laid off during a recession can lose about 20 percent of their earnings over their lifetimes. And “it’s not just middle-aged men in durable goods manufacturing,” Wachter points out. Children of job losers and young people entering a depressed labor market also face grimmer futures. Watch here as Wachter outlines his findings:

All workers, even those who find new jobs relatively quickly, “suffer lasting and substantial adverse consequences from job destruction," he says. The key reason is the loss in human capital. “Workers had skills particular to that employer or that occupation,” so if they have to switch industries they will likely lose those skills and may get stuck in lower wage positions. New workers also face this problem, as their first jobs may be worse and they often become stuck in less attractive career tracks.

But what about “creative destruction"? Does job destruction during recessions have a cleansing effect on the overall economy, as it enables resources to be allocated to more productive enterprises? Wachter's answer: not really. He argues that human and physical resource reallocation occurs predominantly in stronger economic times, not during recessions. So the majority of job destruction is a cost without a benefit. “There’s not much cleansing fire” in recessions, he says.

So what can policy do about all of this? He suggests that given the severe and long-term consequences of lay offs in a recession, policies should focus more on preventing job losses, rather than just ameliorating the short-term effects of unemployment. The idea is to hang on to workers – which is better for them, their employers, and the economy overall.

For more, watch Wachter’s full presentation below:

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Mark Schmitt: Are Romney and the GOP All Talk on Spending Cuts?

May 21, 2012

In the latest episode of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats", Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Mark Schmitt and Jamelle Bouie, writing fellow at The American Prospect, discuss

In the latest episode of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats", Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Mark Schmitt and Jamelle Bouie, writing fellow at The American Prospect, discuss whether Mitt Romney is conservative enough to actually go through with the cuts to social welfare programs that Republicans have long demanded. In the clip below, Mark points out that Republicans love talking about spending cuts, but they're not so big on implementing them. In the clip below, he notes, "We’ve all the seen the game where the Republicans talk of budgets and cuts, but in fact they don’t really want to pay the price of having those things becoming a reality" and that "actually making the cuts and particularly making the cuts that affect the middle class is a huge political risk."

While there are a lot of Tea Party conservatives who have been successful in moving the Republican Party farther to the right in the past few years, Mark and Jamelle argue that there is a difference between them and more mainstream conservatives, like John Boehner, who just want to have their tax cuts. Referring to the latter group, Mark says that "if they have the low taxes they don’t really care about the rest." However, he argues that there are now a significant number of conservatives in power who adamantly believe that there is a difference between Social Security and Medicare, which people have paid into, and other programs, which are "just giveaways."  If Romney is elected, Jamelle believes that these members of the GOP will seize the opportunity to push for cuts.

Mark also points out that the rhetoric from the Republican Party and Mitt Romney keeps changing, so it's hard to know exactly what they will ultimately do. Regardless, Mark notes that Republicans are focusing on a limited group of people. He says "we’ve never really seen a party that actually draws such a sharp generational line." Since older folks are more affected by Medicare and Social Security, "It also puts yourself on the side of people who are less likely to be around in the future." He concludes that "it’s a big gamble politically."

Check out the rest of the video to listen to Mark and Jamelle talk about the changing rhetoric of the Republican Party, the demise of Americans Elect, and a crazy new Republican Super PAC.

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Jeff Madrick on JP Morgan: "We’re Underwriting Profits So That Individual Bankers Can Make a Fortune"

May 18, 2012

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick joined host of Bloomberg Law Lee Pacchia and Chris Whalen of Tangent Capital Partner to discuss JP Morgan's massive trading loss and how to prevent too big to fail banks from

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick joined host of Bloomberg Law Lee Pacchia and Chris Whalen of Tangent Capital Partner to discuss JP Morgan's massive trading loss and how to prevent too big to fail banks from making mistakes that threaten the whole economy. Something's got to give, because as it stands, taxpayers are "underwriting these profits so that these individual bankers can make a fortune," Jeff says.

It may not even be an issue of too big to fail, however. As Jeff puts it, "Too interconnected to allow to fail is really the issue here." So what to do about this kind of speculative activity with FDIC-insured deposit money? Despite the enormity of the system, Jeff has some solid solutions. "Higher capital requirements would make a difference, separating this kind of activity from more plain vanilla banking would make a difference," he says. "If we made these derivatives transparent, if they were in a clearinghouse and somebody knew the prices…that would help enormously." We need a "different kind of Glass Steagall," he says, one that is modernized to fit our times.

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Matt Stoller: Romney Could Be Better Than Obama for Wall Street Reform

Apr 27, 2012

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Matt Stoller joined Cenk Uygur last night on Current TV's

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Matt Stoller joined Cenk Uygur last night on Current TV's Viewpoint with Eliot Spitzer, where they discussed the presidential race and how it may effect efforts to end financial fraud and crack down on Wall Street. Surprisingly, Stoller thinks Wall Street reformers might have more success with Mitt Romney in the White House than they would if Barack Obama wins a second term. In the video below, he argues that "if you look at Mitt Romney's career, it's been about moving where the political winds are, and the interesting thing is that Barack Obama is far less flexible in terms of his policy approach than Mitt Romney has been." 

Matt says that there would be no surprises in Obama's second term when it comes to his relationship with the big banks. "We know what Barack Obama's policy architecture is, and it's to perpetuate these sort of fraud machines and to help them and to bail them out and to overrule and steamroll anyone in office who wants to take them on." He explains that while he doesn't believe Romney's policies would be any better, "I'm putting my hope in the public. The public has shown an unwillingness to take on Barack Obama. I think the public is far more willing to take on Mitt Romney, because Mitt Romney looks like a plutocrat, and they may say 'No, you have to justify your policies.'" In other words, while Romney might be naturally inclined to support his friends on Wall Street, he's also far more likely to bend to the will of the outraged electorate or pragmatic advisors. Matt argues that by contrast, Obama is "unwilling to be pushed in the right direction by people who know what they're doing" because he's "a neoliberal ideologue. He has a strong, rigid view on what is right, and he doesn't move, evidence be damned."

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Dorian Warren: Criminals, Conservatives, and Oligarchs Are Deepening Inequality

Apr 27, 2012

This week, Roosevelt Institute Fellow Dorian Warren joined a panel on America's growing inequality crisis 

This week, Roosevelt Institute Fellow Dorian Warren joined a panel on America's growing inequality crisis hosted by The Century Foundation and featuring TCF's Greg Anrig, Daniel Alpert, and Robert Hockett along with Timothy Noah, author of The Great Divergence. In the video below, Dorian lays out three points that need to be included in any discussion of what's causing inequality and how we can address it: lawless employers, race-based political polarization, and the rise of an American oligarchy.

On the first point, Dorian notes the recent Wal Mart bribery scandal and says that when you think of "the lawlessness of Wal Mart when it comes to unionization, I think that's a great example to think about the other ways in which employers have pretty flagrantly violated the law in the last 20 years or so. So when you think about minimum wage, when you think about health and safety, we're in a new environment, and activists who work on this call this 'wage theft.'" He highlights some shocking statistics from a 2009 study that shows how badly low-income workers have been ripped off by their employers and points out that there is a "basic principle of the social contract that when you work at a job you have an agreement with the employer for how much you're going to make... There is a pretty systematic violation of that contract, and that explains at least part of the wage stagnation that we've seen in the low-wage service sector specifically." While updating and modernizing labor laws is important, "monitoring and enforcement of existing wage and hour laws are really important."

Where race is concerned, Dorian argues that while it doesn't explain the rise of inequality by itself, "there is a story where race does play a role, and it's a political story." He points out that "for 80 percent of our country's history, the majority of Americans weren't classified as citizens," and that Lyndon Johnson's signing of the Civli Rights Act caused an exodus of white southerners from the Democratic Party to the GOP. He says that "there is a difference between Republican administrations and Democratic administrations, but how you get to a Republic administration has to be part of that story, and that's very much about race and the response of southern whites to greater inclusion into American democracy." This racial backlash in turn helps to shape the policies that further inequality.

Finally, Dorian says that it's difficult to find solutions to the problem of inequality, as even the best policy solutions may not be politically viable. Citing political scientist Jeffrey Winters, he asks, "How do we make sense of the fact that we live in both a democracy and an oligarchy at the same time?" Wealth has become highlighy concentrated in the U.S. while also granting the wealthy a disproportionate level of political influence and a number of methods to safeguard their wealth and prevent redistribution. He notes that "the expectation of democracies is that non-rich people would outnumber rich people and therefore demand through their vote the one thing that makes everybody equal, greater redistribution." He concludes with the toughest question of all: "From the 1960s to the present, when we've expanded our democracy, how is it the case that we've also seen more redistribution but actually less and greater inequality?"

 

Image courtesy of Shutterstock.com.

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Andrew McAfee on the Quickly Encroaching (Economic) Dominance of Our Robot Overlords

Apr 26, 2012

Last week, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter’s latest installment of the Next American Economy breakfast series featured Andrew McAfee, prin

Last week, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter’s latest installment of the Next American Economy breakfast series featured Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for Digital Business, discussing his book The Race Against the Machine. A self-proclaimed technology optimist, McAfee lays out in stark and sobering terms the workforce displacement that has already taken place and will continue as the speed of technological innovation only increases. Watch here as McAfee relates how chess, rice, and, an Indian emperor help explain why computers keep getting twice as fast every year:

While computers are able to take on increasingly complicated tasks (like becoming a Jeopardy champion), McAfee notes that there are still a few places where humans can hold their own against their soon-to-be cyber overlords, namely complex communication, advanced pattern recognition, and entrepreneurship. However, examples of “science fiction becoming reality,” like the Google Car and nearly pitch-perfect language translation software, make clear that computers “are eating away at those advantages very quickly.” Bottom line: As a result of this “unprecedented digital encroachment,” the bundle of skills that the typical American worker has to offer potential employers is dwindling.

On the upside, McAfee makes clear that technological progress will continue to make us a more productive and rich society. But with the way things are wired right now, not everyone will get to enjoy the party. McAfee points out that while GDP and even mean income is generally increasing, median income has actually declined.

So what can we do about all this? McAfee offers up three places to start. First, invest in America’s infrastructure. Second, use appropriate policy tools (read: taxes) to deal with what we know will be increasing distance between haves and have-nots. Finally, increase innovation in our education system at all levels. McAfee believes our fate is in our own hands and that “the choices that we make as a society and an economy over the next generation are really going to strongly determine whether it’s a utopian or dystopian future that we head into.” 

For more, watch the full roundtable discussion below:

 

Image courtesy of Shutterstock.com.

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Mike Konczal: "The Police Are Not There To Solve Crimes"

Apr 23, 2012

In an episode of our weekly Bloggingheads "Fireside Chats" series, Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal talked to Aaron Brady from The New Inquiry about how James Q.

In an episode of our weekly Bloggingheads "Fireside Chats" series, Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal talked to Aaron Brady from The New Inquiry about how James Q. Wilson's famous "Broken Windows" essay has changed the way the police force acts. The two discuss the purpose of the police and ask why policing has become so aggressive, as seen in the Occupy movement when the police escalated situations before any of the protesters were a threat or legally doing anything wrong. While many attribute police behavior to racist attitudes and economic incentives, Mike reveals another story. He points out that "the police are not there to solve crimes, the police are there to maintain order, and that involves determining who is an insider, who is an outsider, and strictly policing those boundaries."

How did it get this way? Mike argues that while the classical liberal idea used to be "that things that should be crimed are things that cause direct harm," broken windows theory has emerged as a combined effort of neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism. He notes that the main point of the theory "is to create a kind of logic for going after squeegee men in New York, to go after the homeless, to go after people carrying minor amounts of drugs and... these kind of nuisances or obnoxious public behavior create the conditions for disorder."

While most middle class americans have a perception of cops developed from shows like Law and Order, where police come to the scene after a crime and carefully assess what went wrong, Mike says that the force now does the opposite. He says they are "freaked out about this imagery of lurid people" and that "when you see this imagery of lurid Occupy Oakland people showing up even if they’re not directly breaking the law, they’re creating the conditions for disorder." Police see protesters at UC Davis as starting a slippery slope toward violence, aggression, and more people showing up in the future -- so they pre-emptively act violently to prevent a worse situation. Mike also argues that James Q. Wilson "takes it for granted that the police will always be pushing the boundaries of the law and that the law will always be improvisational at the edge," as though the police only ever engage in crisis situations where the law can get swept under the rug.

Check out the full video below for Mike and Aaron's discussion of the campus protest origins of the Occupy movement, the newly released report on the pepper spraying of UC Davis students, and for their take on capitalism, The Wire, and Teddy Roosevelt:

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Mark Schmitt: Why We May Want America to Decline

Apr 16, 2012

In the latest episde of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats," Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Mark Schmitt and Edward Luce o

In the latest episde of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats," Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Mark Schmitt and Edward Luce of the Financial Times ask whether the American decline we hear Republicans bemoaning on the campaign trail is really such a bad thing. In the clip below, Mark notes that as we fall, others rise. "One part of it is simply relative economic growth compared to China and India, and some of that is either that's just how life is going to be, or maybe you even want it to be that way."

Given that the economic dominance of the U.S. and Europe was never a natural state of affairs and that something truly awful would need to happen to keep countries like China and India from gaining power at this point in their development, Mark argues that "a certain amount of relative decline is not in itself the end of the world."

Mark and Edward also examine some of the growing disfunctions in America's political system, from rising inequality to political gridlock brought on by Republicans. Mark notes that "it's a poltiics in which paralyis benefits certain players, and they're going to use that." He explains that "we tend to think of paralysis in sort of game theory terms," as a "tragedy of the commons with two people each trying to do good things," but "that's not always true. Sometimes that's exactly what people want to create and benefit from." For more, including Mark and Edward's thoughts on the benefits of the German education system and the inside dirt on Larry Summers, check out the full video below:

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Dorian Warren: "Employers Are Mini-Dictators"

Apr 10, 2012

In a new episode of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats," Roosevelt Institute Fellow Dorian Warren sits down with labor journalist Josh Eidelson to discuss

In a new episode of our weekly Bloggingheads series, "Fireside Chats," Roosevelt Institute Fellow Dorian Warren sits down with labor journalist Josh Eidelson to discuss workplace democracy -- or the lack thereof. As Dorian notes, even "people who proclaim to not want government involvement in their lives and who think that somehow it's a form of tyranny are perfectly willing to walk into work every day and have a private actor with total control over their lives." In the clip below, he argues that under current labor law, "with few exceptions, employers are mini-dictators. We have to do whatever our employer says, or otherwise they can fire us."

Join the conversation about the Roosevelt Institute’s new initiative, Rediscovering Government, led by Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick.

The solution, Dorian says, is to make it clear that citizenship isn't something that can be flipped on and off like a switch. "If we accept certain political principles and freedoms in the broader society," he asks, "why would we then check those at the workplace door every single day?" By launching "a long-term term campaign to reframe how we think of ourselves as citizens in the society, in the polity, and in the workplace," the labor movement can not only improve working conditions but also strengthen unions by ensuring they "have a central and permanent role in making sure democracy is a core aspect of every breathing moment that we have."

For more, including a look at an unusual alliance between unions and Tea Partiers and an explanation of why Republicans continue to attack public sector unions, check out the full video below:



 

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Eric Schneiderman Urges Progressives to "Dig Deeper" to Transform the System

Apr 6, 2012

Last Thursday, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick kicked off the Roosevelt Institute’s new flagship initiative, Rediscoverin

Last Thursday, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick kicked off the Roosevelt Institute’s new flagship initiative, Rediscovering Government, at an event with a keynote address from New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. Why are Americans so distrusting in government? Schneiderman's answer is that we've been led to believe in the "magical market" that supposedly guides us to equality and prosperity. "Its like the conservatives are pretending they've found some missing pages of Genesis that the rest of us are missing," he said. But in reality humans are to blame for profound changes -- like skyrocketing income inequality -- not supernatural forces. "The distribution of wealth is not determined by nature," he said, "it is determined by public policy."

 

Progressives' efforts at making significant changes to the system after the financial crisis have mostly borne little fruit, he noted. We therefore "need to dig deeper" see how deeply the unfettered propaganda that less regulation leads to growth and higher taxes always create jobs has affected the American mindset and economy. We also have to aim for long-term, "transformational" change instead of the everyday "transactional" change we usually get bogged down in. We have to move past the election cycles and everyday battles to politics that involve working today to improve circumstances in the future and challenging the way that people think about issues in the first place.

Join the conversation about the Roosevelt Institute’s new initiative, Rediscovering Government, led by Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick.

But the importance of progressives' efforts can't be overstated. "Great strides in social justice don't come out because of politicians, they come out because of movements." The movement has to put pressure in all the right places -- most importantly by reviving the fact that government plays a vital and positive role in every American's life. "By demonstrating that the government can and will enforce one set of rules for everyone, and protect the interests of all Americans, not just the most fortunate, we begin the process of transforming people's awareness of themselves and our collective life," he said. "And if we do this work, we can put to rest the deep fallacies that have allowed injustice and inequality to grow unchecked for so long, and we can begin to rediscover the potential of government to get us back in touch to start building, as our counterparts in the 1930s did, a more equitable, educated, healthy, and compassionate nation."

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