Bo Cutter

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Next American Economy Project

Recent Posts by Bo Cutter

  • The Giffords Shooting: A Deepening Political Divide at Work

    Jan 13, 2011Bo Cutter

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    I have no idea what demons drove the man who shot Congresswoman Giffords and 17 other men and women. And I am not writing this because I see this tragic event as an example of the effects of the harshness that now characterizes our politics. Rather, I want to make broader points.

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    I have no idea what demons drove the man who shot Congresswoman Giffords and 17 other men and women. And I am not writing this because I see this tragic event as an example of the effects of the harshness that now characterizes our politics. Rather, I want to make broader points.

    First, on the basis of the facts available, this shooting seems to me to be most of all an example of free range, non-ideological craziness, of mental illness -- not one, directly, of inflamed politics. I recommend to everyone David Brooks' column in the NYTimes yesterday on this topic. Brooks argues that we are not dealing well with the broad problem of mental illness and violence. I agree with him, but I also think that Brooks' focus is too narrow. As a starter, it would be far preferable if it were not so easy for just anyone to buy a semi-automatic Glock 19. (But they can. Sales have soared since the shooting.)

    Second, American political discourse has never been gentle -- you can go back to our beginnings, to the Jefferson and Adams presidential campaigns and the death of Alexander Hamilton and come forward to the present and find a very high level of insult, invective, and, sometimes, violence in our politics. But if I focus on the last 50 years, the political climate does seem to me to be distinctly more harsh and more dangerous. (Although even in saying that, I have to except whole eras like the 60's and the civil rights struggle and what civil rights leaders and activists faced then.) There is something "in the air." I have no idea whether this "something" actually effects anyone's behavior, but my gut feeling is that it does.

    Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

    Third, while the climate seems much more harsh across the board, there is -- or seems to be -- a more violent tilt to the rhetoric of the far right. Jim Fallows refers to a list compiled by the Coalition to stop Gun Violence of "violent" or "insurrectionist" political rhetoric. It is scary, and even though I say "across the board" above and mean it, I strongly doubt that Fox or the Wall Street Journal's editorial page could develop a similar list focused on the left. It is distinctly unhelpful for Democrats to see this particular tragedy as a result of Republican rhetoric; for Republicans then to point to Democratic excess; and on and on. But Republican leaders ought quietly to think hard about what they set loose in the country generally when they seem to indulge violent rhetoric. The disgraceful scenes during the passage of health care reform come to mind, when the Republican leadership made no apparent effort to lower the heat of what sure seemed to be semi-violent, racist insults thrown at Democratic congresspeople.

    But hard thinking about the quality of our national discourse will not take place on either the right or the left. Hand waving and sober commentary will have no effect. The genie is out of the bottle. Our politics are what they are and no one is going to change. The reason stems from the deep structure of American politics today.

    In his excellent book "Civility", Stephen Carter makes the point that as rhetoric becomes more and more inflamed, the differing sides of the political argument find it easier and easier to see each other as "the other." Once you see your opponent that way, it is hard to impossible to see the substance of their arguments or their basic humanity. But Carter doesn't try to explain why this might happen. Bill Bishop, in his equally good book "The Big Sort", shows why. We are now polarized not just by opinions and ideology, but by lifestyle and geography. We no longer live next door to the people with whom we disagree. We may be evenly divided as a nation, but at the local level we live -- to an astonishing and unprecedented degree -- in politically homogeneous neighborhoods. I grew up in a very small, rural village -- you had to get along day by day with neighbors you disagreed with completely with politically. Not any more.

    At the same time, we segregate ourselves on the web. We live in homogeneous neighborhoods there also -- so today we have both our own opinions and our own facts. The talk shows and the blogospheres are almost entirely one voice and are highly intolerant of dissenting views. The awkward task of dealing with the actual thoughts of someone with whom you disagree is completely avoidable.

    In this world, opponents are seen as the other, compromise is seen as corrupt, and any absence of ideological fervor is viewed with suspicion. No amount of fake goodwill is going to change this. I've come to think that until there is a true political voice at the center, nothing will change this. Hands will be waved in dismay, but the rhetoric will steadily worsen, the purpose of politics will be more and more ideological identification, and actual substantive improvement will be harder and harder to achieve.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

    Share This

  • Bill Daley Can Build Bridges

    Jan 7, 2011Bo Cutter

    I believe Bill Daley is a wonderful choice as White House Chief of Staff. I know him well and believe he has all of the right skills: he is very smart; he is a real manager; he has been a cabinet member; he has the gravitas and experience to tell the president what he has to know, rather than what he wants to hear; he has as good a network as anyone in America; he is action- and decision-oriented; and his heart is in the right place.

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    I believe Bill Daley is a wonderful choice as White House Chief of Staff. I know him well and believe he has all of the right skills: he is very smart; he is a real manager; he has been a cabinet member; he has the gravitas and experience to tell the president what he has to know, rather than what he wants to hear; he has as good a network as anyone in America; he is action- and decision-oriented; and his heart is in the right place.

    Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

    Progressives' initial reaction may be skeptical. I would urge people to cut Bill Daley a break. Yes, he most recently comes from a banking background -- it happens to be just about the only major American bank that managed itself well during the financial debacle. Yes, he comes from a business background. I'm obviously a bit conflicted on this point because so do I. But I think "Main Street" is a natural ally for a large number of progressive issues, and I know that the Obama-business relationship is poisonous right now. Bill Daley can build bridges here that the Obama Administration badly needs to have built.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

    Share This

  • The New Obama Team Will Get Things Done

    Jan 7, 2011Bo Cutter

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    With the appointment of Gene Sperling as the new head of the National Economic Council (NEC), President Obama has completely changed up his original White House team. A new NEC head; new OMB Director; new National Security Advisor; new Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors; and, above all, new Chief of Staff. In typical Obama style, it was done with no drama, but the clearly needed reset has happened. I believe this is a superb team. But how can it be characterized?

    First, these are pros. Every one of them understands the executive branch and how a White House should function. They will work with the executive and Cabinet and contend with the new Congress better than the previous team.

    Second, they are managerially capable. They know how to manage organizations, operate the complicated inter-agency committee machinery that creates and maintains presidential policy, determine priorities, make decisions, and maintain focus. Throughout its first two years, the Obama White House was entirely transactional, a deal shop. Maybe that was necessary then, but it showed. The next two years will demand a much higher level of executive skills.

    Third, they have all led other lives and are not Obama insiders. They bring a deep knowledge of other parts of American life. They do not owe everything to their link to the president and know, at least at the start, that their arrival at the White House does not mean they are genetically superior and have God's special favor.

    Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

    Fourth, they are not inherently high-maintenance and will jell as a team. Bill Daley will insist on it. For the first two years, there was a constant undercurrent that the "team" disliked each other and found it less and less possible to work together. I heard it from too many directions for that not to be at least partially true.

    Fifth, they are all centrists and pragmatists. And they are all substantive. They will want to make serious progress on an important agenda. They will be willing to work with the new Republicans to move that agenda when it is possible. But they will be skillful political infighters when things come to that -- and things will.

    As I have said in other blogs, President Obama has an uphill climb. The electoral arithmetic, the debacle he inherited, and what I consider strategic mistakes combine to make re-election a real challenge. But this new team are realists. They will not be Pollyannish about their situation; they will have a real strategy, and they will work the strategy. To paraphrase from a friend of mine from decades and another life ago, the Republicans clearly think they can whip Obama. But they better bring their lunch -- it'll be an all day job.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

    Share This

  • The Big Reset 2: An Economic Strategy

    Jan 3, 2011Bo Cutter

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    Here is what President Obama should be thinking out there in Hawaii:

    Shaping the future with today’s choices.

    Here is what President Obama should be thinking out there in Hawaii:

    "To paraphrase Wellington on Waterloo, 'the last two years were a damned close thing.' I had some big wins but I also made big mistakes. In particular, it is beyond me how we managed to lose control of the economic and financial debate when we came into office after an economic crisis had occurred and could point to eight years of Republican mismanagement. But that's what happened. The task now is to regain control. If I do, I can get some important things done, and I'll have two terms to do them. If I don't, I may still have two terms, but I won't get anything done.

    I know what is required: A broad, compelling economic strategy. Our economy is in tough shape. Jobs aren't coming back fast enough, our sky-high debt raises too many economic risks, and long-run growth looks as though it will be way too low. This is why Americans have little confidence in the direction of the country. This is also why a 'small ball' low-risk political strategy for the next two years is not the right course. It will just be another part of the likely political craziness, and will be dependent on Republican mistakes.

    I'm going long.

    I also think the elements of success are more in place then most pundits believe. My new chief of staff will run a much more strategic, orderly, and accountable White House. The Republicans have a tough political equation to manage, and my bet is that they will do it badly. And I learned a very important lesson during the lame duck session: there are deals to be made. My progressive wing hates the tax deal, but I think I got a lot and gave up very little. There is clearly a small group of moderate Republican senators who need to be perceived as trying to get something done, and I think I can do business with them. But all of this makes the State of the Union speech the most important speech I will give during my first term."

    So what is that broad compelling economic strategy? What should the president say in the coming State of the Union speech? I'm not trying to write the speech here, but the following is my sense of what he ought to want to accomplish with the new Congress, what doing this would achieve, and why he might be able to get it.

    Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

    He should ask for four results from the new Congress: First, a temporary doubling of the payroll tax cut already passed during the lame duck session. Second, a tough deficit/debt reduction program, covering all expenditures in the budget (yes, including entitlements), raising new revenue, starting in two years or when unemployment falls below 7.5%, and aimed at lowering deficits and debt over the long run. Third, a major tax reform, including substantial reductions in personal and corporate marginal tax rates, the phasing down of the costs of major tax deductions, and the introduction of a progressive VAT. And fourth, a 10-year $1.5 trillion (about 1% of GDP per year) program of investment in public infrastructure through a newly created Infrastructure Bank. I do not think that the significance of investment -- private and public -- is given anywhere near enough priority in today's debates.

    By any definition, this is a big strategy. What will it get us?

    First, more rapid growth immediately as the increased spending made possible by the payroll tax cuts kicks in. Second, a far less risky and more competitive economy. The current course of deficits and debt risks another, bigger crisis, lowers long-term growth, and does irreparable harm to the public sector. And third, a high-investment, high-growth economy in the long run. A lower-risk economy, with reduced corporate tax rates, and a clear, set tax system will increase corporate investment. A progressive VAT will shift personal expenditures from consumption to investment. And a major long-term program of public sector infrastructure investment will enable the country to build a 21st century infrastructure.

    Why is it even remotely possible that President Obama could achieve this? Because he can dominate the debate with such a strategy; because the Congress -- even the Republicans, even the tea party -- has to achieve something. And because this is a great deal, for everyone except the two farthest ends of the political spectrum. But it is a deal in which all of the parts are mutually dependent. A further payroll tax reduction is unobtainable without a commitment to deficit reduction. Neither deficit reduction nor tax reform is possible without a new tax. We can't increase the long-term growth rate if we do not invest more in both the public and private sectors. The private sector won't save and invest more if we don't change the tax system. And the politics of significant increases in public infrastructure investment are insurmountable without the Infrastructure Bank.

    President Obama should make a big bet here. If he doesn't get all of it, can you imagine anything better to campaign on than a plausible plan to turn our economy around? If he does get it, then the U.S. economy will be, once again, the strongest in the world, and we are talking seriously about Mt. Rushmore.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

    Share This

  • The Big Reset: The Next 2 Years of the Obama Presidency & the Next Chief of Staff

    Dec 29, 2010Bo Cutter

    Shaping the future with today's choices.

    The presidency of Barack Obama is dangerously close to one term president territory. Events, the nature of the opposition and both strategic and tactical White House errors brought President Obama to this point. Like a sailing ship clawing away from the rocks on a lee shore, the path out of the corner the Administration is caught in is very very narrow.

    Shaping the future with today's choices.

    The presidency of Barack Obama is dangerously close to one term president territory. Events, the nature of the opposition and both strategic and tactical White House errors brought President Obama to this point. Like a sailing ship clawing away from the rocks on a lee shore, the path out of the corner the Administration is caught in is very very narrow.

    That path -- the big reset -- requires three things: (1) a reorganized White House with, first of all, a new Chief of Staff -- the subject of this blog; (2) an audacious economic strategy that the President is determined to run with for the next two years -- the subject of the next blog; (3) a clear understanding by the White House of how it plans to fight and win some inevitable impending battles -- my last blog on this topic. In the absence of such a reset odds are this is a one term presidency. I went through one of those, they are no fun at all.

    There should be little doubt that this presidency is in trouble. The November elections were a disaster. The previous losses in Virginia and Massachusetts were troubling. The overall mood of the country is not favorable. The economy is not recovering fast enough to bring employment down far enough. Political finesse and strategic/tactical mastery have not been hall marks of this White House's management -- until, to my surprise, the lame duck session; and the hurdle for the next two years will be higher. And the electoral map is a big problem. I cannot see -- at the moment -- how the President wins Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia, but without these states he cannot get to 270 electoral votes. And, I forgot, his base -- the left of the democratic party -- now hates him.

    Sign up for weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, event alerts, and reading/film/music recs.

    The first thing the President must do is find himself a new chief of staff. This is not said with any disrespect for the present acting chief of staff -- Peter Rouse. He is said to be a fine man and he certainly did not cause the current problems of the President -- in fact the successful lame duck session is probably due to him -- but he also cannot solve them. He deserves a serious role but not chief of staff. This White House is a highly comfortable, deeply-pleased-with-itself culture of true Obama believers. At its best -- in the Rahm days -- it was completely transactional. It has never been strategically managed, and as a result has never had any apparent strategy. People I trust who are in a position to know emphasize that it is not well organized, and shows little apparent concern with accountability. It is composed, essentially, of long time Obama insiders. Another insider will find it hard to confront these problems. (Nor is it clear an outsider can solve them, he or she could be cut to ribbons by the rest of the staff.)

    To cope with all of this a new chief of staff has to have the following characteristics: first, he must have sufficient stature to stand up to all of the status quo arguments he will get, and still make the tough choices that are required. A lot of these are going to be about people. Second, his experience has to be managerial and, ideally, executive branch. This is not a task for a former Congressperson. Every instinct that background fosters is wrong for now. Third, he must have the experience to understand that the Executive Branch and the Congress - even the democrats in Congress - are different. Think permanent hard nosed negotiations. Fourth, he must be able to (and temperamentally willing to) manage the Cabinet. And, finally, he has to be able to stand up to the President.

    This set of skills is not easy to find. I can think of two obvious candidates: Erskine Bowles and Leon Panetta, both of whom were wonderful chiefs of staff. I suspect they do not want to do it twice but President Obama needs someone with similar skills. But when he finds someone of that caliber he will be asked the obvious question: "what is the job?" That means: is this intended to be a role that pursues modest changes in the current course or is the President committed to real change? I hope the President's answer is the second.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

    Share This

Pages