Bo Cutter

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Next American Economy Project

Recent Posts by Bo Cutter

  • The Budget Chronicles: The Super Committee's Predestined Failure

    Nov 16, 2011Bo Cutter

    All signs point to empty political posturing without real solutions. And that was always the expected outcome.

    All signs point to empty political posturing without real solutions. And that was always the expected outcome.

    The super committee, set up after the debt limit debacle in early August, is due to report on November 23. This report is supposed to tell us how Congress will meet its self-inflicted requirement to reduce future deficits and the growth of the country's debt by at least $1.1 trillion over the next 10 years. If this goal is not met, then automatic cuts -- called sequestrations -- will go into effect, divided equally between domestic and defense expenditures. This report was actually due to the Congressional Budget Office well before now so that the CBO could score the proposals. But if you knew anything about congressional negotiating, you knew that would never happen; it was always doomed to be strung out until the last minute.

    So what's the report going to propose?  Here is my handicapping of possible outcomes with commentary to follow:

    1) Chances of a breakthrough and a major deal: 0 percent. There was never any chance of this. No member of the committee has anything close to the clout needed to move his or her party toward any kind of real deal.

    2) Chances of a failure and the ensuing sequestration: 10 percent. This would be an awful result for the committee members and for Congress as a whole. I know that there is great pressure on the committee to avoid a failure. Embedded in my 10 percent estimate is some small chance of a modified failure, such as a decision to delay the report. But I cannot imagine the committee wants to prolong this agony.

    3) Chances of a "kick the can down the road" minimum proposal filled to the brim with fake cuts, empty allocations, and meaningless two-step processes: 90 percent. The report will propose approximately $1 more than the absolute minimum combined with a maximum degree of fakery.

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    To describe the "kick the can" option more completely: it will include a) a very small total of real deficit or debt reduction; b) maximum possible use of fake changes -- for example, counting currently planned troop reductions as defense cuts; c) broad, empty allocations -- other committees will be instructed to make cuts in very broadly specified areas (so no one is guilty of any actual reduction); d) I hear there is some chance of the return of an oldie but goodie -- the general fraud, waste, and abuse reduction; and e) a new maneuver -- the revenue increase two-step, by which a (small) revenue increase is stated with the actual tax changes assigned to the tax committees to decide upon next year.

    One can be disappointed, but certainly not surprised. This super committee was, from its beginning, intended to produce this result. It is the Congressional version of the joke about the train car load of 10-year-old canned sardines: intended for trading, not for eating. Creating this committee was solely the way to get out of the debt limit/deficit debacle Congress created for itself. Yes, lots of people played their expected roles and presented to the committee. But no one who knows the town ever thought we would be any where else but right here.

    The committee's report will then immediately become the vehicle for a much more satisfactory game of finger pointing, which will set an appropriate tone for the presidential campaign we are headed into. Some of the truest words ever spoken about pro football also apply to politics: Blain Francis Nye, Stanford graduate and tackle for the Dallas Cowboys, is credited with observing, "It's not who wins or loses, but who gets the blame."

    But, to end on a positive note, there is some modest chance that events might force both sides toward a grand bargain immediately after the presidential elections in the period between November and Inauguration Day in January. No matter who wins, there is going to be a high sense of urgency to get this issue at least partially out of the way.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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  • Left and Right are Both Dead Ends for Tax Policy

    Oct 18, 2011Bo Cutter

     

    The tax debate can be about values without devolving into a battle between good and evil.

     

    The tax debate can be about values without devolving into a battle between good and evil.

    Some day, but certainly not until after the 2012 presidential election, we will have to arrive at an economic policy that supports our economy in the short run and brings fiscal deficits and the growth of federal debt way down in the middle to long run. When we do this, we cannot accomplish much without raising tax revenues -- and actually improving economic performance while we change our tax structure would be a fine thing. While this set of thoughts may be complicated, it is not particularly hard to understand, nor should it be impossible for a functioning political system to accomplish.

    But given our current political structure, we won't. One reason is that both the left and the right in America see tax issues entirely through ideological lenses. The right sees any effort to raise tax revenues as either an attempt by socialist leftists to further impose the nanny state on an unwilling America or a drive to destroy entrepreneurship and free enterprise. The left sees taxes virtually entirely as a redistributive mechanism and an opportunity to whack the undeserving rich, and so tax policy is reduced to the Buffett Rule and a millionaires tax. Thus, virtually any tax debate is instantly transformed by both sides into an epic Manichean battle between good and evil, between those who are really trying to destroy free enterprise and those whose incomes, and perhaps existence, are an indication of evil at work in the world. Tax issues are hard enough to contend with, but the battle between good and evil will never, ever, be resolved.

    But there is another, simpler, more pragmatic perspective. Tax policy right now ought to be about raising revenue in ways that are fair and that help, rather than hurt, the economy. How do you accomplish this while no one, with the exception of Warren Buffett, wants to pay higher taxes?

    I've never understood why it is constantly pointed out that Americans favor taxing the rich as though this were some startling revelation. Of course they do. Most Americans do not think they, themselves, are rich. This opinion is simply a special case of the truest and most profound words ever spoken about tax policy, which consist of a poem often recited by Senator Russell Long of Louisiana: "Don't tax you; don't tax me. Tax that fellow behind the tree." This is as close as you get to absolute truth in politics.

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    I believe that the tax policy that comes closest to accomplishing the more simple goal of raising revenues without doing too much damage and maybe actually improving the economy a bit is, as I've suggested before, the following:

    1. End as many as possible of the current endless list of tax deductions from both personal and corporate income taxes and make the ones we keep more progressive.

    2. Use much of the revenue this set of actions would free up to lower marginal tax rates for all classes of individuals and corporations. Reasonable top marginal rates would be around 25 percent to 28 percent. To reach these numbers, we would probably have to end special capital gains tax rates but lower overall rates. The argument that slightly higher capital gains rates would lower economic growth is hard to sustain.

    3. Create a consumption tax of about 10 percent. If we really wanted to do some good, tax the consumption of "bads" -- carbon, pollution, green house gases. Bill Nordhaus calculates in the New York Review of Books this month that taxing "bads" could yield $300 million per year in additional federal revenue, or $3 trillion over a decade (three times the amount the Super Committee is trying to find in total). After the necessary exclusions, a progressive consumption tax would yield roughly 4 percent of GDP as net new revenue -- which, viewed over a long period of time, is about what we need.

    This tax system, created as an integrated whole, would be much more progressive than our current system, encourage more investment, make America a bit less of a consumer economy, improve the environment, drive more economic growth, and raise the revenues we need. By any standard, this integrated tax system would represent radical change and an improvement over the present. And the seeds of this tax system were included in both the Simpson-Bowles and the Rivlin-Domenici budget proposals of last fall -- the ones the entire political establishment, including the Obama administration, rejected well before they were written. (Within the next year, that decision will be seen as one of the two biggest strategic mistakes of the Obama administration.)

    However, this system does not meet the psychological needs of the left or right. Who cares if a pragmatic balancing of interests might solve a major issue, when instead you can have an interminable and unresolvable ideological debate? Nothing even remotely resembling an actual tax policy will be debated until after 2012, if ever. (Herman Cain's "9-9-9" plan has many of these elements, but its numbers don't make sense.)

    All of which brings me to David Brooks's New York Times column on Friday. In a wonderful piece that is largely an appreciation of prosaic, dull efforts to recognize the real world and do something sensible, Brooks says about our politics, "nearly every practical question becomes a values question... It would be nice if there were more leaders...inclined to disenchant problems and stare at specific contexts. Sometimes circumstances compel you to raise taxes; sometimes circumstances allow you to cut them."

    Values are always going to be, and should be, an intrinsic part of political debate -- nothing is ever just pragmatic. But there is a question of balance and of what we need right now. I believe, and it is reasonably clear there is a vast middle in the American electorate that also believes, that right now much more pragmatic movement toward actual decisions and real progress is desperately needed. Ask yourself how likely it is that we will get that pragmatic movement from either party over the next year.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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  • It's Time to Stop Tinkering with the Economy

    Sep 28, 2011Bo Cutter

    The solutions being offered by both sides are too small and small-minded to meet the challenges we face.

    The solutions being offered by both sides are too small and small-minded to meet the challenges we face.

    I liked the president's jobs speech, but I was deeply disappointed with his budget speech on September 19. The president is missing an immense opportunity, and what may have been the last chance of his first term, to build a workable economic strategy. The undeniable truth is that nothing currently on the political agenda comes close to being sufficient to meet our problems.

    When President Obama gave his jobs speech, I thought he would follow it with a budget speech that would change both the budget and the tax game, and then with an infrastructure speech that would provide a genuine bridge to long-term economic growth. There's a lot more to do than jobs, budgets, and infrastructure, but those three are not a bad start, and I thought there was an opening to build a real strategy -- one a president could both run on and govern by.

    I may or may not have been right about the opening for a strategy; we will never know. But President Obama doesn't seem to be looking for that opening, and I was wrong about the path he was on. I think we are about to waste a year debating trivialities.

    There is a fundamental mismatch today between the issues we are debating and the problems we are facing; between the issues the two parties are willing even to consider and what is developing as a grinding, long term economic crisis. We are still in the relatively early stages of what Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have called the "Great Contraction," an excruciatingly long period of slow growth and high unemployment that -- unless we act -- could easily become America's very own lost decade. We may be facing a European-led double dip recession. But wait, there's more: When this period -- this "Great Contraction" -- is over, we will not simply return to the world of the past. We are losing competitiveness, the middle class is hollowing out, we are not creating the right kinds of jobs, we are not preparing the next generation, and inequality continues to grow.

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    In the face of these impending waves of real crises, both parties are displaying an instinct for the capillary, not the jugular. They are retreating to their core ideologies and refusing to budge from their different received wisdoms. Meanwhile a huge potential force is gathering in the center and looking around for a real set of solutions.

    What is a "real set of solutions?" To characterize them in general, I agreed completely with what David Brooks wrote yesterday in the New York Times: "Try to reform whole institutions... there are 6 or 7 big institutions that are fundamentally diseased... The Simpson-Bowles report on the deficit was an opportunity to begin a wave of institutional reform." To say this another way, we should stop tinkering.

    Here are more specific thoughts that take us beyond tinkering:

    1. Move now toward a combination of Simpson-Bowles/Rivlin-Domenici;
    2. Establish an infrastructure bank with a capitalization of $500 billion;
    3. Reform the income tax code; bring personal and corporate rates way down; create a super rate for super high personal earnings -- say above $5 million;
    4. Introduce a consumption tax and/or tax "bads" (fuel, green house gases);
    5. End the current employer tax exclusion for employee health care costs; put a ceiling on costs by converting it to a credit; move employees to the health exchanges which should be the central feature of President Obama's health insurance program;
    6. Require much higher capitalization -- say 15 percent -- of major banks;
    7. Create a jobs tax credit focused on small new businesses, which create the vast percentage of America's new jobs.

    That's enough for starters. These are the kinds of big changes we need. They derive from ideas of both the left and the right. All of them land squarely on some "third rail" of American politics. None of them will actually be proposed by either of the current major parties. Together they show the need for a force or party of the radical center. But despite that word "radical," none of these are truly radical; we could do all of them. Together, they would together be a project for American renewal.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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  • Palestine and the UN: An Inevitable Foreign Policy Disaster

    Sep 23, 2011Bo Cutter

    Opposing Palestine's bid to join the UN puts America on the wrong side of history, but a lack of domestic support forced the president's hand.

    Yesterday, the Next American Economy breakfast series heard former Ambassador Frank Wisner on the topic of the "Arab Spring" -- where it is going, and what it means for the U.S. Wisner focused on the broad developments occurring across the Middle East, but it was hard not to think about President Obama's speech regarding Palestine's entry into the United Nations.

    Opposing Palestine's bid to join the UN puts America on the wrong side of history, but a lack of domestic support forced the president's hand.

    Yesterday, the Next American Economy breakfast series heard former Ambassador Frank Wisner on the topic of the "Arab Spring" -- where it is going, and what it means for the U.S. Wisner focused on the broad developments occurring across the Middle East, but it was hard not to think about President Obama's speech regarding Palestine's entry into the United Nations.

    Opposing Palestinian membership in the UN, as President Obama found himself forced to do this week, is a disaster for American foreign policy that was probably inevitable.

    It is often hard to explain how apparently abstract developments such as America's relative loss of position and power, the rise of other major players, the loss of the "glue" the Cold War provided for the West, and the sudden emergence of the Arab Spring affect American interests. Well, we've just seen a concrete example, and it will haunt us for a long, long time.

    This is not a bash-President-Obama statement. The choice he made reflected the rawest kind of U.S. domestic politics. Given the president's current circumstances, it is impossible to imagine his going in the other direction. He lacks the political capital, and there are no major figures among Republicans or in the (nonexistent) American center who could be counted on to support him if he had chosen to back Palestinian membership. From where I sit, it seems blindingly obvious that Palestinian membership in the UN is not only completely consistent with a U.S. guarantee of Israel's security, but is arguably preferable. But I don't sit in the White House anymore, and Rufus Miles's famous principle -- where you stand depends on where you sit -- applies.

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    But neither the inevitability of this decision nor the high probability that many would disagree with my sense of Israeli security issues make this decision's consequences any less dire. If you put lipstick on this pig, it's still just a pig with lipstick. We have firmly placed ourselves on the wrong side of history with this decision. We have for a while -- I fear a long while -- removed ourselves as broadly accepted players in Middle East issues. We have also accelerated our loss of position and power.

    Three closing observations:

    First, I wonder what plan "B" was for the White House and the State Department. Normally one would have a rough risk assessment, and one would have known -- weeks if not months ago -- that the odds of winning on this issue were very, very low. That does not mean you should not go ahead and try, but it does mean you should be able to answer the "and then what" question. I see no evidence of the answer to that, but you can't just sit there with the president having endured a significant personal rebuff and maintain that was the plan all along.

    Second, the only way our current position can be rescued is with clear movement toward a peace plan. But we would have to throw ourselves into that issue, which would also be politically fraught, and we would have to receive some real help from Israel, for whom the President just took a huge hit. Are we going to try, or are we going to sit idle for 14 months while our election plays out?

    Third, the world over the next generation will be a different and difficult place. It will be a kaleidoscope of different players: new semi-global powers; local, regional, and global issues and interests; and state and non-state players. Other nations will be the source of most of the world's growth. Our own economy -- unless things change -- will be weak, and our politics mean. America will continue to be the most influential single nation, but we will not be the acknowledged and accepted leader. We can function fine in this world, unless -- as this decision may portend -- our foreign policy becomes simply a bad reflection of our domestic politics.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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  • Fading Faith, Rising Fury: The Fallout from the Debt Ceiling Debacle

    Sep 16, 2011Bo Cutter

    Americans have never had less faith in their government, and they've never been more justified.

    About six weeks ago, I wrote:

    Americans have never had less faith in their government, and they've never been more justified.

    About six weeks ago, I wrote:

    This debt ceiling debacle is not acceptable. Americans have a right to be furious at both parties for all of this, and these events will accelerate the movement away from our current duopoly. What right do politicians have to threaten the economic security of all Americans because they are having an ideological quarrel? Most Americans mostly want to be left alone, not made the victims of a political system that has seemingly lost touch with what governance is.

    The fallout from this debacle is increasingly clear. The latest New York Times/CBS poll says that only 12 percent of Americans now approve of how Congress is doing its job. Eighty percent of both Republicans and Democrats say it is time to elect all new members of Congress.

    But another recent poll by Bill MacInturff of Public Opinion Strategies makes a much more targeted point. To quote Bill, "The debt ceiling negotiation... is profoundly and sharply reshaping views of the economy and the federal government... It has led to a scary erosion in confidence in both."

    Here are a few more of Bill's comments:

    • "The perception of how Washington handled the debt ceiling negotiation led to an immediate collapse of confidence."

    • "This type of deep voter anger, unease, and economic pessimism leads to unstable and unpredictable political outcomes."

    • "This is the rare 'wow' data. It represents a profound change in a matter of months."

    • "There is no precedent for an incumbent president being re-elected when the Michigan consumer sentiment index is at 75 or below." (It is now at 55.7.)

    • "Lord, they hate Washington right now" (a comment by one of the pollsters).

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    Keep in mind the following percentages: 78 percent, 73 percent, and 81 percent. Those are the percentages of those polled who, respectively, (1) were dissatisfied with how our political system is working, (2) lacked confidence in government to solve economic problems, and (3) lacked confidence in either President Obama or Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions.

    The American people are completely right in their accelerating level of horror at how our political system is functioning and how our leaders are behaving. It is unimaginable that we actually had a debate in August over whether it was a good idea to default on debt the American government had issued with its full faith and credit. But, of course, we did.

    I want briefly to take up the issue of "false even-handedness" and weak centrists blaming both sides. As an increasingly strong advocate of the radical center, I do blame both sides, but for different things. There is no question in my mind that the Republicans in Congress and specifically the Tea Party members were incomprehensibly irresponsible -- I called them "clueless, hypocritical nihilists" and meant it. But where were any responsible alternatives? Where was the outrage from President Obama? The president should have called these crazies out for completely unacceptable behavior. That would have been the right thing to do, it would have been good for the country, and it would have been good for him.

    This level of justified voter unhappiness, combined with our immediate and serious economic problems and the very real threat of a lost decade, means we cannot just waltz through the next few years thinking that this will all blow over and business as usual is enough. Getting out of the corner we have put ourselves in will require someone to bet the presidency on the proposition that the American people, at long last, are ready to listen to an adult message. President Obama should junk his current message, recognize where we stand today, and put forward a policy that is radical enough for the times.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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