Jeff Madrick

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Rediscovering Government Initiative

Recent Posts by Jeff Madrick

  • The U.S. Lacks Good Jobs, Not Good Ideas

    Jun 17, 2013Jeff Madrick

    A Bold Approach to the Jobs Emergency brought together leading policymakers, thinkers, and activists to discuss how we can get the U.S. to full employment and create more good jobs, but that was only the beginning of the conversation.

    A Bold Approach to the Jobs Emergency brought together leading policymakers, thinkers, and activists to discuss how we can get the U.S. to full employment and create more good jobs, but that was only the beginning of the conversation.

    Our jobs conference in early June covered a wide variety of potential solutions to what we call the jobs emergency, from major macro policies to local activist ones. Given how little is done in Washington to solve the problem, it is stunning how many good ideas are out there.      

    Senator Tom Harkin, who has sponsored the most comprehensive jobs bill in Congress, set the stage with a keynote address that made no bones about it: we are not creating enough good jobs in America -- not by a long shot. Perhaps his key point of many was that we don’t have to choose between closing the budget deficit and making goods jobs. “Smart policies designed to reduce unemployment will also act to reduce the deficit,” he said. If we grow, create goods jobs that pay high wages, and encourage investment, the deficit will also fall, as it always has before when economies recovery strongly. It’s a win-win.

    But Washington is stymying progress. That's why, he said, we must end the filibuster.

    Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, assured us there is no deficit problem for the next 10 years, so we shouldn’t be focusing on it. Several of our macroeconomists called for much more fiscal stimulus.

    One cause of job deficits may well be Wall Street itself. Damon Silvers of the AFL-CIO talked about how Wall Street has misdirected investment from productive uses. Rosemary Batt of Cornell University discussed how privatization puts downward pressure on wages and jobs. Bill Lazonick of the University of Massachusetts Lowell stressed how cash-rich companies use money to buy back shares rather than invest in America.

    Participants in the conference talked about creating jobs through infrastructure investment, community investments, and outright job creation by the federal government a la FDR. Others discussed the need to raise labor standards and enforce the existing labor laws.

    Local activists offered refreshing perspective. Maya Wiley of the Center for Social Inclusion said we must not think that one-size-fits-all solutions are good enough. We have to bore down to the particulars. Ai Jen Poo wondered why we have so many unemployed when we have so many needs. For example, there is a desperate need for adequately paid care workers. Why can’t we get supply and demand to come together?

    And Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin told us of her disappointing experience at a local jobs fair, where she saw the poor quality of jobs being offered. She asked the room why so many poor jobs were being created, and how long will this go on.

    Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, who also had a job creation bill before Congress, summed up the issue. “This is the seminal battle of our time," she told the conference. “A battle for our economy, a battle for fairness, a battle for the heart and soul of our country. This is a battle that has to be waged all around the country.”     

    We at Rediscovering Government will make the jobs emergency our number one priority. Videos of the conference panels and keynotes are now available on our web site. We will also publish transcripts and eventually produce a book on the best jobs ideas in the country. We will provide background papers on policy proposals we make. Everyone in the nation should have a decent job if he or she wants one. As far as we are concerned, it’s one of our inalienable rights.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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  • The Jobs Emergency

    Jun 3, 2013Jeff Madrick

    On Tuesday, June 4th, the Roosevelt Institute's Rediscovering Government initiative will host A Bold Approach to the Jobs Emergency, a daylong conference exploring the roles of government, policy, and activism in addressing historic levels of unemployment and economic misery.

    On Tuesday, June 4th, the Roosevelt Institute's Rediscovering Government initiative will host A Bold Approach to the Jobs Emergency, a daylong conference exploring the roles of government, policy, and activism in addressing historic levels of unemployment and economic misery.

    A lot is said about the jobs crisis in America, but not enough. We have a full-fledged jobs emergency and jobs are the nation’s number 1 problem. We at the Roosevelt Institute are holding a full-day jobs conference in Washington on Tuesday, June 4th to address a wide range of solutions to the economy’s alarming inability to create adequate jobs. The conference is sponsored by Bernard Schwartz, who has strongly encouraged this focus at Rediscovering Government and agrees that jobs are America’s major concern. We hope to shift the political agenda by examining what this emergency is, where it came from, and how we might solve it.

    The unemployment rate is the first line of evidence of our emergency but not the most disturbing. At 7.5 percent, it has dropped roughly two and a half percent percentage points since its height, but remains far from full employment four years after the Great Recession ended. As many now know, if we include part-time workers who want full-time jobs and discouraged workers, the unemployment rate is roughly 14 percent. In another analysis, between 2007 and 2009, one out of six workers lost a job.

    Of greatest concern is the related employment-to-population ratio, which measures the proportion of the country’s working-age population that is employed. It is down to 58 percent from 63 percent. This shows that the only reason the unemployment rate is as low as it is has been is because people are dropping out of the labor force. Recent surveys also show that sharp decline in re-employment rates.  

    Then there is long-term unemployment, those out of work for six months or more, which is still millions of workers above its levels before the recession. New evidence shows that the long-term unemployed are “scarred.” They have measurably more difficulty getting new jobs than those out of work for a shorter time.

    The emergency worsens because we not creating enough jobs to replace those lost, and the jobs being created are low wage or do not include retirement and healthcare benefits. Two of our conference participants, Annette Bernhardt and John Schmitt, have done original research on these issues. Their findings are alarming.

    And what happens even when you get a new job? Researchers find that those displaced now experience sharp declines in wages over twenty years even when re-employed.

    One reason I call this an emergency is that the two prior recessions and recoveries were also not creating jobs the way the U.S. once did. Job gains were late in coming in the economic recoveries after the recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001. Again, the jobs being created don’t match those that existed before. Today, the typical male earns less after inflation than he did in 1969. The typical household earns less than in 1999.

    And what should worry us most is what is happening to the young.  Employment-to-population ratios for teenagers and young adults have collapsed. This is a social explosion waiting to happen. Early job experiences influence future job outcomes.

    So what are we to do? Economists almost universally call for more college attendance. But is that remotely enough? Infrastructure investment has rarely been more appropriate, but will the U.S. spend enough? What about the minimum wage, job standards, local activism, job training? Has Wall Street’s emphasis on short-term corporate profits and the attraction of capital to trading profits made matters much worse? Is globalization the source of most of these troubles?

    Finally, are we simply growing too slowly? Washington gives us austerity economics when we clearly need more stimulus. How does one move this mountain of misinformation and uninformed ideology? Full-throated fiscal stimulus might well be an answer that gets us closer to full employment.

    We have always found economists who argue there is a structural employment problem, claiming that we don’t have the workers who qualify for the jobs. The evidence for this is thin at best. We will discuss this issue as well.

    This jobs emergency now requires a full-court press. That is why we have seven different panels to address these questions and a host of possible solutions.

    Some insist we should talk mostly about what is politically practical. If we limited ourselves to what Congress might do, we’d have little to talk about. We must change their priorities. Jobs must be number one, but the nation cannot seem to admit that to itself.

    We need, as one of my colleagues puts it, a job-creating president and a job-creating Congress. Jobs should be on everyone’s lips. Many talk narrowly about how only business creates jobs, yet corporate profits are enormous and job creation lags. I hope that with this conference, we will begin to pave the way to a far broader job-creating political agenda for 2014 and 2016.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

     

    Emergency light image via Shutterstock.com

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  • Good News on the Deficit Makes Social Security Cuts Even Worse

    Apr 12, 2013Jeff Madrick

    The deficit is already shrinking rapidly, and Social Security won't add much to it anyway.

    The deficit is already shrinking rapidly, and Social Security won't add much to it anyway.

    The reason President Obama's proposal to cut Social Security benefits is tragic is that it is simply not necessary. His plan is to use a different method to compute how much benefits are raised to offset inflation. But Social Security will add very little to federal spending over the next 30 to 40 years. As a proportion of national income (GDP), It will rise from 5 percent to 6 percent. At the same time, retirees are set to get much less money from their pensions because so many were forced to depend on 401(k)s and defined contribution plans rather than traditional pensions with defined benefits.

    But a new report from Goldman Sachs economists puts the Obama decision in an even harsher light. The federal deficit is coming down rapidly on its own. In a piece entitled, “The Rapidly Shrinking Federal Deficit,” Goldman notes that the deficit averaged 4.5 percent of GDP in the first calendar quarter, compared to 10.1 percent in fiscal year 2009. The reasons are faster economic growth, higher taxes, and reduced government spending. 

    More importantly, Goldman thinks the deficit will fall to 3 percent or so over the next two years, mostly because business and households will begin spending again. They think so-called deleveraging—that is, paying back debt—is coming to an end.

    And here’s some additional good news: deglobalization! McKinsey reports that deglobalization has plagued the world since the financial crisis. The cross-border flows of capital are down sharply. The good news, McKinsey admits, is that they probably should be. Such border flows were often hot capital, financing speculation more than long-term investment. Now foreign direct investment, usually stable investment in business, is a much higher proportion of capital flows.  

    And financial deepening—the proportion of GDP that is in debt and stocks--is also down. What sticks out like a  sore thumb is that the financial deepening of the preceding two and a half decades—which was huge--went far less to households and business than is to be expected. Even McKinsey says this is astonishing, because what else is finance supposed to do but supply funds to individuals and businesses? Instead, an enormous proportion went to finance itself—that is, financial firms borrowed at dramatically higher rates. And an awful lot of that must have gone into speculative activities, especially highly risky mortgage securities. From my point of view, this financialization was the disease created by the triumphalism of globalization. Globalization, to be sure, had benefits, but they were overshadowed by the financial instability of capital flows, which grew enormously since Ronald Reagan was president.

    McKinsey warns that this deglobalization of finance could go too far. As noted, cross-border flows, especially long-term investments, can be highly benefical for world growth. But for me, it is now welcome. 

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed

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  • Defeating Laissez Faire Thinking in the Name of the WPA

    Apr 8, 2013Jeff Madrick

    Winning the war of ideas will be vital if we ever hope to implement such a successful program again.

    Winning the war of ideas will be vital if we ever hope to implement such a successful program again.

    Many thinking people are surprised that the lessons of the Great Depression have been so easily forgotten as the rich world struggles to get economies back on track after the worst recession since the 1930s. Keynes himself would have been surprised, because he thought the end of laissez-faire economics was well on its way even before the Great Depression. He wrote an essay in 1930 to that end called "The End of Laissez Faire," nicely summarized in a new book by Angus Burgin, The Great Persuasion, which predated his magnum opus, The General Theory, by six years.

    But laissez-faire rose again with a vengeance under the articulate, if simplistic, preachings of Milton Friedman. It remains a guiding principle today partly because of the very allure of its simple core principle. For those of us who believe government is needed not merely to tame capitalism but to make it work, as well as to provide for a decent society that rewards all fairly and promotes social cohesion and optimism, we should remind ourselves how profoundly appealing laissez-faire is and what a battle we face. It is a set of elegant principles, while the correct critiques of it are ugly by comparison. Also, it was in the 1920s, and is today, the philosophy of the rich and powerful, not a small matter.

    The rise, momentary fall in 2008, and rise again of laissez faire is therefore not really a stunning historical event. Fiscal stimulus, the main legacy of John Maynard Keynes, was derided when President Obama got an $800 billion stimulus passed. Then it was said by many that it didn’t either save or create new jobs. Meanwhile, Europe is overwhelmed by the disease of austerity economics. Only Germany stays above water based on exports made cheap by the low value of the euro -- something it would not be able to enjoy if it were independent of the Eurozone and had its own currency. Austerity economics has spread to the U.S. in the form of allegedly sensible budget balancing commissions that are not sensible at all. They helped foment the pressure to balance the budget as soon as possible, even with unemployment at nearly 8 percent.

    It is not only fiscal stimulus that is derided. Programs to spur job growth have been limited to relatively modest infrastructure investments and tax cuts, especially payroll tax cuts. Less obvious, the push by mainstream economists to explain income inequality almost solely in terms of inadequate education is deeply misleading. Such an expalantion neglects the low minimu wage, persistently high unemployment rates, the failure to implement labor organization laws, and on.

    There have been new programs. A modest investment in infrastructure and tax cuts. We do have a healthcare bill, which we should applaud on balance. But none of this compares to the adventure of the New Deal, and in particular the Works Progress Administration, whose anniversary we are celebrating today. The WPA went out and hired Americas to do jobs, including building infrastructure. By some estimates, some 8 million jobs were created.

    We need a wide range of New Deal ideas made contemporary: higher minimum wages, living wages, aggressive public investment, green investments, and on. Government will be the generator of these jobs. Some, but very few, argue we need outright public employment programs, just like the WPA.

    What made that happen then? A more severe recession than now, for one thing. A far bolder president, for another.   

    But the ideology of laissez faire still had to be defeated. Laissez faire was not mentioned by Smith, Ricardo, or Mathus, Keynes wrote. “Even the idea is not present in any form in these authors,” he said in “The End of Laissez Faire.” He went on, the public had “come to regard the simplified hypothesis as health and the further complications as disease.”

    Keynes blindly believed reason would prevail. The many over-simplifcations of laissez faire would become obvious, he optimistically thought. Sane criticism would prevail over simple ideology. For a while, he was right—a pretty long while. Arguably a version of Keynesian progressivism, which even included fixed exchange rates and plenty of social programs, especially in Europe, prevailed until the 1970s. Then it turned to over-simplifications and scapegoats, mainly driven by the painful inflationary economy of the 1970s.

    Many are enamored of the idea that a revitalized right wing of effective think tanks, lobbying, and media disinformation ended progresssivm in the U.S. But that misreads history. Margaret Thatcher introduced stern anti-Keynesian policies well before the U.S. did at the start of the 1980s. Germany was anti-Keynesian throughout the 1970s. Ideas matter, and the acceptance of the idea of laissez faire regained the upper hand.

    As we battle in memory of the marvelous WPA, we should keep in mind how intensely compelling laissez faire ideology is. It has captured, without their really noticing, the hearts and minds of most orthodox economists. As usual, it has the rich mostly on its side. If we recognize it is a tough, ongoing battle to defeat the simple version of it, we will fight it better. In the meantime, we can rejoice in how well we once did. That is the proof that we can win. American history can be repeated.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed

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  • Obama's Other Message: Times Change and Government Changes With Them

    Jan 23, 2013Jeff Madrick

    The president didn't just make a case for big government; he argued that the government must adapt to meet its citizens' needs.

    The president didn't just make a case for big government; he argued that the government must adapt to meet its citizens' needs.

    Almost hidden in President Obama’s second inaugural address was a key idea that received little if any attention. The focus has been on the president's eloquent defense of collective government, and who couldn't be gratified by that? Time and again, he used the world “together” to describe the nation’s purpose. Government is about working together, and Obama very nicely made the case for it in the face of 40 years of pronouncements by those who disparage government and want to cut it down, if not out. Democrats, not just Republicans, have been leaders in this quest.

    But for me, what was most interesting about Obama’s speech was the emphasis on how we must change with the times. I was interested because I wrote a book about this. I take no credit for Obama’s point, because my book was titled The Case for Big GovernmentI doubt he would be caught even in the privacy of his own bedroom reading a book with that title.

    Seeing the title, many presumed I was writing about Keynesian policy. In fact, my argument was that the size of government is not the issue, the need for government is. I cited the work of economists who show that size and high taxes have not automatically deterred growth. But when I published this before the crash, Republicans in particular, but also some Democrats, kept talking about the original intentions of the Founders and were urging us not to go beyond the early purposes of government. That is where I focused my attention: the needs of government change as society, science, social thought,  technology, and expectations advance.

    To say government must be small is nonsense. Government must be the size necessary to make a society and economy work, and that is not fixed -- nor could it possibly have been known by farmers in the late 1700s.

    Here is what Obama said about change on Monday:

    [W]e have always understood that when times change, so must we, that fidelity to our founding principles requires new responses to new challenges, that preserving our individual freedoms ultimately requires collective action. For the American people can no more meet the demands of today's world by acting alone than American soldiers could have met the forces of fascism or communism with muskets and militias.

    Let me reemphasize that this has been said before but not often enough. Surely it is not part of the media discourse and it is not part of the thinking of those budget writers in Washington who claim the federal government should be a fixed proportion of GDP. I refer of course to the Bowles-Simpson budget balancing plan that so many think is the height of good sense. They’d like to limit federal spending to 21 percent of GDP -- no matter that our society ages, that health care is more costly, that we need to educate preschool children and better educate those in higher grades as the world gets more competitive, that our poverty rate is still high, that our ability to create jobs is under severe challenge, and so on.  

    There are no fixed rules for what government should do because we can’t anticipate the future. The colonial writers of America’s Constitution did not know we’d need high schools or highways, electricity or polio vaccines, MRI machines or antibiotics, fertilizers or pollution restraints, gasoline or wind power, or computer chips. They didn’t even know we’d need railroads.

    Our view of human rights also changes. Slavery is now abhorrent to almost all, women are equal, those with birth defects require help, and very young children, we have learned, benefit greatly from educationally nourishing environments.

    Most of this requires government, and President Obama recognizes this. His agenda, what we must now do “together,” includes climate change, equal rights for women and gays, gun control, and a sensible international policy for the times. He goes on, “So we must harness new ideas and technology to remake our government, revamp our tax code, reform our schools, and empower our citizens with the skills they need to work hard or learn more, reach higher. But while the means will change, our purpose endures.”

    The means will indeed change, and the nation would do well to accept that truth, or it will not rise to the challenges of this new century. I originally titled my book The Purpose of Government. Maybe that would have been better. But the point remains the same. Shed ideology about government and fixed ideas and turn our attention to what must be done. Yes, my guess is it would mean bigger government. But so what?

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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