Jeff Madrick

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Rediscovering Government Initiative

Recent Posts by Jeff Madrick

  • Impact of Job Numbers Goes Far Beyond the Jobless

    Jul 12, 2011Jeff Madrick

     

    The high rate of joblessness suggests a deep malaise in America that begs for strong leadership.

    A New York Times article on Sunday by the fine journalist Catherine Rampell suggested that a reason the jobs crisis in America (my phrase) is not getting sufficient attention is that the unemployment rate, even if a very high 9.2 percent, still means that nearly 91 percent are employed.

     

    The high rate of joblessness suggests a deep malaise in America that begs for strong leadership.

    A New York Times article on Sunday by the fine journalist Catherine Rampell suggested that a reason the jobs crisis in America (my phrase) is not getting sufficient attention is that the unemployment rate, even if a very high 9.2 percent, still means that nearly 91 percent are employed.

    But we need to take a moment to clarify what high unemployment really means, and how broad its implications are. It is an indicator of overall economic weakness, not merely a number about those without jobs. And as such, it suggests that much is seriously wrong. It does not mean that 14 million are hurting people and the other 125 million are not.

    First of all, we of course know that millions are looking for jobs and have given up or have taken part-time jobs when they want full-time jobs. That adds another 7 or 8 percent to the unemployed or underemployed. We are now are getting to the point where one out of six workers or so is having employment disappointments. We also know many have been unemployed for a very long time -- a record number, in fact.

    Second, these people have relatives and friends who increasingly realize they may also get the axe. Their families, not only themselves, suffer.

    Third, when you lose a job you now usually lose your health coverage -- or have to pay up big time to retain it. That adds to the misery.

    In fact, far more people than 9.2 percent are upset by the high unemployment rate. About a quarter say in surveys it is our number one problem.

    But high unemployment also implies little or no wage growth for most employees. There are two theories about this. One is the classical theory that when labor markets are loose, there is more supply and the price will not rise readily -- that is, the wage. The other is a little more Marxian in orientation. When people are losing their jobs, they get scared -- and they don't ask for a raise, they work more hours if asked, and on.

    Since mid-2009, when the recovery technically began, there has been almost no increase in wages and salaries. But profits have soared by hundreds of billions of dollars.

    That's almost never been the case before. Indeed, the relationship between job creation and GDP growth seems to have changed some time ago. Many people, including Nobel laureate Michael Spence, hardly known as a progressive economist, worry that something is deeply wrong -- and a lot of it may be about globalization.

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    But when you consider that salaries and wages have risen slowly, stagnated, or fallen for almost all workers except those at the top for forty years, the American economic condition gets pretty frightening.

    I think the unemployment rate suggests there is growing malaise in the nation. More and more people are pessimistic. Are Americans giving up on the future?

    And yet both political parties talk far more about budget deficits than jobs. Obama has fallen into one of the great political traps of all time. On average, the media follow meekly behind. Yet Americans have long fallen for the deficit scare, back in the 1930s and even before that. That is an issue worthy of more discussion.

    I wrote a few weeks ago on New Deal 2.0 that Obama should sound the jobs alarm. Leadership matters in America. That is the problem. Right now, we don't have it. Leaders have to tell Americans the economy is weak and the deficit is necessary right now.

    But in sum, a high unemployment rate does not merely mean that 14 million Americans, and they alone, are suffering. It suggests far broader pain and suffering. And disappointment may turn to anger before we know it. The Tea Party is the first manifestation of this. What's next?

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of Age of Greed.

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  • When Will Obama Sound the Alarm About Jobs?

    Jun 9, 2011Jeff Madrick

    Poor economic data has spread to the stock market. Maybe this will finally serve as a wake-up call.

    Poor economic data has spread to the stock market. Maybe this will finally serve as a wake-up call.

    The sudden weakening of the economic recovery is now undermining even the stock market. As usual, however, Wall Street is worried about profits and a possible double dip recession. But what the press and the Obama administration have not adequately taken up is how poor job and wage growth have been, even given the rate of GDP growth. And without more jobs and rising wages, we can forget a strong economy in the future.

    It is time to make the record clear, especially as Austan Goolsbee leaves his post as Obama's chief economist. Goolsbee has spoken about the lack of family income growth being the biggest problem America faces. But there has been no passion in this White House about what is an alarming jobs performance. There has been some job growth in recent months -- until May, that is. But overall, the performance is abysmal and simply frightening.

    That job growth, like GDP growth, would continue at a satisfactory rate was a wish and prayer for the administration. The inflation mongers, usually Republicans, have been still worse. The dominance of austerity economics in Washington will be seen as a historical folly of the first order. Cutting federal spending now is simply wacky.

    Economist Andrew Sum and his group at Northeastern have done a close-up analysis of job and wage data. There has never been an economic recovery since World War II nearly as bad as this one.

    Yes, there has been GDP growth, but it has almost all gone to profits, not pay. By most measures, there are still fewer jobs today than there were at the bottom of the recession. Just as disturbing, there has been no increase in wages. There are many measures of wages and salaries, but Sum and his group found that average hourly earnings of all private sector wage and salary workers were unchanged over the seven-quarter recovery. The typical or median full-time worker lost ground over this period. Hours worked grew only slightly.

    And as we all know, unemployment remains very high at 9.1 percent. Underemployment -- those unable to find full-time work when they want it -- has about doubled, growing from 4 million to 8 million American workers.

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    For the first time in more than sixty years, aggregate wages and salaries adjusted for inflation did not rise after seven quarters of recovery. What did rise was corporate profits -- and sharply. Here's the stunner, as Sum calculates: Pre-tax corporate profits in 2010 dollars rose by $464 billion and real wage and salaries in 2010 dollars fell by $22 billion.

    Job growth out of the 1990-1991 recession was also slow. But not like this. Profits have never been as large a share of the growth of GDP.

    This should fire up any Democratic administration. But at a recent presentation at the Harvard Club in NYC, Tim Geithner recently boasted about how much better the American economy recovered than did Europe's. That's only true if you don't look at jobs. And what is an economy ultimately, but jobs?

    This disconnect between GDP growth and jobs is the economic issue of our time. Some of the jobs have been off-shored. Much of the slow job growth is due to companies' refusal to hire new workers because demand is so uncertain (not due to increased regulations). New technologies have a part to play. But it is hard to escape the fact that increasingly, corporations are in a battle with workers to minimize labor costs. Productivity growth is now the result of "efficiencies," not innovation. "Efficiencies" is now a euphemism for disregard -- and sometimes contempt -- for workers.

    Those of us who took an economics course or two were taught to admire productivity growth. I remember fully believing that increases in productivity were usually accompanied by increases in the nation's standard of living. This was the capitalist defense of labor-saving machinery -- the industrial revolution. Throughout history it often worked, with some substantial help from progressive government programs that started in the late 1800s.

    The relationship no longer holds, and government is nowhere to be found. We need more stimulus, an outright jobs creating program, tax incentives to keep jobs here, serious infrastructure and manufacturing investment by the government, and perhaps a reconsideration of free trade policies. As far as I can see, Washington just thinks we will blithely grow our way out of this.

    Stock prices went up rapidly in this expansion along with profits. Maybe that's what makes Washington complacent on the jobs issue and turns its focus to budget balancing. As for the press, big finance also dominates their thinking. Now stock prices have been falling. This may prove the only wake-up call Washington can't ignore.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of Age of Greed.

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  • Conversation with Jeff Madrick, Author of Age of Greed (Part Two)

    Jun 1, 2011Lynn ParramoreJeff Madrick

    jeff-madrick-100In the second part of his interview with ND20 Editor Lynn Parramore, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick talks about the core message of his new book, 

    jeff-madrick-100In the second part of his interview with ND20 Editor Lynn Parramore, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick talks about the core message of his new book, Age of Greed, and what happens now that our economic myths have been shattered. If you’re in the New York City area and want to learn more, you can catch Jeff's author's talk tomorrow night at Cooper Union. Click here for more information on the event.

    LP: If the recent financial crisis disproved the dominant free market/efficient market economic models of the Age of Greed and exposed rampant fraud, deceit, and risky behavior, why are we still so firmly in the grip of faulty economic thinking?

    JM: I think we’re still in the grips of it for a couple of reasons. One is the extraordinary power of Wall Street and monied interests and the power of money in campaigns. This is a very serious sphere in the heart of democracy in America. Number two: the reformers, the good guys, are basically only looking to stop the next crisis. In fact, they should be looking to make the financial system work properly again. It didn’t fail only in 2007 and 2008. It failed time and again since the 1970s. Reform has to be directed at that. That’s a much harder issue.

    LP: What areas of the financial system are most in need of new policies and practices?

    JM: It’s not about Too Big to Fail. It’s about restraining crazy levels of speculation. It’s about seriously restraining compensation that’s based not on productive investments but on shuffling paper. It’s about making individual executives responsible for what they do and subject to losses. Now they are not subject to losses because the shareholders bear the loss. One of the remarkable things about the Age of Greed -- and why I call it that -- is that not only did people make enormous money and were able to pursue their self-interest unchecked, but they reversed the history of American reforms. We learned how to deal with this in the 1930s. We learned the problems. We developed regulations. And not only were some of those regulations reversed in letter, they were basically reversed in spirit.

    LP: What lessons of the 1930s did we unlearn in the Age of Greed?

    JM: FDIC insurance was the most successful program of the 1930s. But when money-market funds came around, and you and I put our money there without thinking about it. Nobody thought, my God! We better ensure that these money-market funds are okay -- they’re not insured! Well, sure enough, in 2007-8 there was a run on money-market funds. The SEC was created to make sure investment banks, when they raised money through stocks and other relevant securities, disclosed all relevant information. In the 1990s and 2000s, federal regulators stopped forcing disclosure. No one even knew what was in a collaterized debt obligation any longer. In fact, I think you aren’t even allowed to know what was in it unless you were an investor. The SEC was created to make sure that pricing was transparent. Then we had the development of over-the-counter derivative markets where pricing was totally secret, totally subject to the whim of a particular investment bank -- Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and so forth. Things became obscure, which was the opposite of the spirit of the SEC. So America reversed history in this period.

    LP: To get the fundamental restructuring that’s necessary to put us on more sound economic footing, what’s most vitally important for financial regulators do to?

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    JM: To concentrate on capital requirements, which is no small thing in a global world. To raise capital requirements significantly in order to restrain speculation. The same with leverage requirements. I believe what would help is a financial transactions tax to diminish over-speculation. But I think what regulators have to begin to come terms with – and it’s not even in the air, certainly not a serious consideration – is to understand that Wall Street is a monopoly. Almost like an electric utility used to be a monopoly. Why is Linked In trading so high? Because Wall Street makes an enormous of money on an Initial Public Offering—5, 6, 7% of that offering. That’s what drove the crazy high-tech fantasies of the late 1990s. Wall Street made absurd levels of compensation. That’s what drove Walter Wriston’s loans to South America. It wasn’t the interest rate spread – you know, “we’ll charge you a certain interest rate and we’re paying a slightly lower interest rate”. It’s that they made 2% of the face amount. 1-2% for every loan they made, which went right to the bottom line. This is monopoly stuff and it violates good economics and it’s justification for the federal government to come in and begin to control the compensation. Now that, in the current environment, is considered radical. And it should not be considered radical.

    LP: Some point to the current weak economy and high unemployment rates as evidence that the Keynesian economic model, which favors government intervention, doesn’t work. The argument that things could have been much worse without the stimulus, for example, is easy to dismiss and attack. Are you optimistic about a revival of Keynsianism under these circumstances? Who are its most effective proponents?

    JM: The issue is – as is often the case – that the president has not reminded people how effective the stimulus was. Now most economists know this. The right wing denies it. Alan Greenspan continues to do damage by claiming a “lack of confidence” and uncertainty and saying that it’s the budget that has kept people from investing. It is utter nonsense. And it has to be combated at the very top. I've heard Geithner combat it. I don’t think he’s a very effective guy, but at least he tried to combat that and show that those policies work. Unemployment would have gone to 12 and 13% if there had not been these Keynesian policies. The loudest credible voices are obvious. It’s Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. How effective they are, I’m not so sure. But they are right. And right is all you can be, in some senses.

    LP: What would you say is the main message of your book?

    JM: I hope that the main message of my book is that individuals created this crisis. It was not an act of nature. It was not inevitable. People say, what are you getting so angry about? Just roll with the punches. But this is not just ‘how it is.’ Sure, there’s going to be overspeculation in a free market system occasionally, and some kinds of market contractions, but they don’t have to be catastrophic. There is no inevitability unless government abandons its responsibility.

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  • The Victims of Insider Trading

    May 17, 2011Jeff Madrick

    He who pays the most money for inside information makes the most money. The rest lose.

    Nothing surprises me much more than when I read that trading on insider information is a victimless crime. In the wake of the conviction of hedge fund giant Raj Rajaratnam, the claim has come up time and again. In fact, it is entirely untrue. The victims are all those who sold Raj a stock or other security at a lower price than they might have if they had the same information he had. In other words, the victims are pensioners, mutual fund investors, bank trusts holders, and on.

    He who pays the most money for inside information makes the most money. The rest lose.

    Nothing surprises me much more than when I read that trading on insider information is a victimless crime. In the wake of the conviction of hedge fund giant Raj Rajaratnam, the claim has come up time and again. In fact, it is entirely untrue. The victims are all those who sold Raj a stock or other security at a lower price than they might have if they had the same information he had. In other words, the victims are pensioners, mutual fund investors, bank trusts holders, and on.

    It’s like what happened in the 1800s when some insiders knew the railroad had planned to build a track through a certain territory. They bought land from unsuspecting farmers, ranchers and maybe even the federal government on the cheap. That activity disgusts us. Same with stocks when the fund managers know about good earnings news to be reported the next day or a merger announcement to come.

    What the details of the Rajaratnam scandal also shows is that he who pays the most money for inside information also makes the most money. Money begets money, the big get bigger. That’s a pretty good example of what’s happened over the past thirty years in American finance.

    Now, when you can leverage that money up -- borrow to the hilt at low rates -- inside information really pays off. Many hedge fund managers don’t make money for the insights but for their sheer chutzpah. Meantime, market integrity is out the window.

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    Wall Street’s always had some kind of advantage over the rest of us. The pros could often call someone up at a company to get an edge. But passing on outright inside information -- the kind that will move a stock price one way or the other substantially -- should clearly be illegal.

    One of the more interesting facts about hedge funds is that, according to those who measure risk statistically by deriving ‘betas’ and ‘alphas,’ they do better on average than the amount of risk they take suggests they should. Mutual funds on average do not.

    Some interpret this as proof of how astute the hedge funds are compared to other investors. The data could also be interpreted another way. That given their size and wealth, they have more information about company strategies and results, takeovers, and the trading patterns of the market. They may even be able to push prices their way and bail out before others catch on. Cornering markets can be against the law. How often does “mini-cornering” -- momentary attempts to buy enough supply to determine a quick price change -- go on? That’s perhaps the main reason why they do better than the risk they take suggests they should.

    This is seedy stuff and there is no simple way to prevent it adequately. If such practices are common, it makes good sense for investors who have the money to sign up with hedge funds and get a piece of their unfair advantage.

    On the other hand, some hedge funds are totally honest. How can we tell which ones make it on smarts, good instincts and genuine preparation? Only if the government aggressively cleans up the act. Fear of prosecution is perhaps the only effective weapon.

    Meantime, good money flows to funds, often unwittingly, who exploit and take advantage—and that only distorts the efficient allocation of capital in America.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of The Case for Big Government.

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  • All the Wrong Lessons

    May 4, 2011Jeff Madrick

    Conservatives aren't simply misinformed about torture or economic policy.  They're blinded by ideology.

    The Republicans are rushing to claim credit for George Bush’s interrogation techniques in the demise of Osama bin Laden. Someone being “interrogated” gave up the name of the courier who eight years later was tracked painstakingly to the Osama compound in Pakistan.

    Conservatives aren't simply misinformed about torture or economic policy.  They're blinded by ideology.

    The Republicans are rushing to claim credit for George Bush’s interrogation techniques in the demise of Osama bin Laden. Someone being “interrogated” gave up the name of the courier who eight years later was tracked painstakingly to the Osama compound in Pakistan.

    The last time this Republican demand for retroactive credit happened in a big way to my recollection was when many Republicans, and media cheerleaders like Larry Kudlow of CNBC, were giving Ronald Reagan all the credit for the economic boom under Bill Clinton. Reagan’s last year in office was 1988. The boom began in 1996. More on this tragicomedy in a moment.

    John Yoo, the legal scholar responsible for the outrageous White House briefs that okayed the harsh torture, congratulated President Obama in a blog post on Tuesday and then quickly credited Bush for the success in getting Osama—all his analysis based on first-day “press reports” about how the courier was identified. The law professor apparently saw no need to keep quiet until he got the facts. Peter King, one of the House Republican leaders most disturbed by Muslim presence, immediately credited water boarding for the breakthrough. No need for him to check the facts.

    The New York Times now reports that the man in question was not water boarded. That did not stop the press from believing King and accepting his assertions as fact. (Let’s also keep in mind that the Times, if likely more diligent, depends on intelligence sources as well). In fact, The Times noted that higher up terrorist leaders who were subjected to intense interrogation methods did not corroborate the name. To the contrary, even under serious torture, they deliberately misled the U.S. intelligence officers. The White House National Security Council response, according to the Times, was that if they had had a reliable name in 2003, they would have captured Osama in 2003.

    The central question is how easy it is to learn the wrong lessons from the Osama event. The Osama death opens a potential path to calmer relations and perhaps a true withdrawal from Afghanistan, meaningful negotiations with the Taliban, and regional cooperation that includes all-important Pakistan, a nation whose involvement is critical to the region (and has been to the Afghanistan war for the transport of troops and supplies). Instead, of course, we get outrage and congressional calls for punishment. We are told by our own macho extremists how effective torture was. No doubt, Pakistan has been playing this game both ways, and the U.S. should demand a clear relationship. But Pakistan has many internal issues to deal with, and is very uncomfortable with foreign presence in Afghanistan. The estimable international affairs columnist of the International Herald Tribune, William Pfafff, recommends reading someone with a serious, informed perspective on the issue, Anatol Lieven, of King’s College on the subject, author of a new book, Pakistan, A Hard Country. The idea should be to calm the waters and develop a salubrious relationship with Pakistan. Instead, we get vindictive shrieks of anger and demands for punishment.

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    Similarly, the Right never learned the lessons from what were failed Reagan policies in the 1980s. They argued that lower progressive taxes on the wealthy in particular—after payroll tax hikes, they were lowered only slightly on balance for middle-calls and working class Americans—remade America, coupled with deregulation and a wave of hostile corporate takeovers (unchallenged by Reagan’s defanged anti-trust units). Mark Sirower, a McKinsey analyst, gave the lie to the poor value of most takeovers in his fine book, The Synergy Trap.

    But the Clinton boom occurred after two tax increases—one under George H.W. Bush and the other engineered by Clinton himself. It was aided by a Federal Reserve that at last stopped fighting inflation tooth and nail. The leading edge of business was not the supposed lean and mean victors of the takeover wars but the new chip-based high-technology companies. All of course went to excess as regulations went unenforced. Finance was already producing phantom economic gains and bubbles that soon burst. Reagan, who so effectively pushed deregulation and appointed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman, deserves more credit for those than the true economic gains.

    George W. Bush, always embarrassed by his father, wanted to be just like Reagan. But under Reagan, wage growth stalled, inequality began to rise sharply, job growth was slower than in almost any other expansion since World War II, and capital investment was weak. The budget deficit rose to above 6 percent of GDP and did not fall even to 3 percent of GDP until late in his second term.

    None of the facts deterred the younger Bush. He too implemented large tax cuts. Did they work? Not at all. But I find even some of the best business reporters are not aware of the true record. After the tax cuts, the Bush economy grew more slowly from trough to the 2007 peak (before the credit crisis and the start of the Great Recession), than any other trough-to-peak expansion in the post-war period. Job growth was far worse than in any similar expansion. Here are some data provided by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

    madgraph54

    In fact, it is Ronald Reagan and George Bush who are more responsible for the current budget deficits than any other presidents.

    Will we draw the right lessons from the Osama death? It is unlikely because of entrenched ideological prejudices on the part of the Right. And these same prejudices account for making the enormous mistakes in economic policy today. History is a often weak sibling to ideology.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of The Case for Big Government.

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