Jeff Madrick

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Rediscovering Government Initiative

Recent Posts by Jeff Madrick

  • Searching for an Honest Debate on Economics

    Jul 18, 2012Jeff Madrick

    Glen Hubbard's column in today's Financial Times detracts from meaningful academic debate by ignoring counter-arguments and citing discredited research (when he cites evidence at all). 

    Glen Hubbard's column in today's Financial Times detracts from meaningful academic debate by ignoring counter-arguments and citing discredited research (when he cites evidence at all). 

    Glenn Hubbard, an economic adviser to Mitt Romney, and more relevant to this commentary, dean of the Columbia Business School, has published a column in today’s Financial Times so devoid of basic academic credibility that it is fair to call it disingenuous.  Hubbard claims research shows that reducing debt levels will create more rapid growth. Any such research is highly controversial. You wouldn’t know it to read Hubbard.  He does not deal with counter-arguments at all.

    He cites Harvard economist Alberto Alesina who claims that the way to get debt-to-GDP ratios down is to reduce social transfer spending.  He does not note how profoundly the Alesina research has been discredited by researchers at the decidedly neo-classical IMF. Austerity has rarely - if ever - worked to generate growth

    He cites work by the conservative Hoover Institution that reducing federal spending to GDP to pre-crisis rates would increase GDP.  The crisis was caused by a collapse in tax revenues - not by too much spending. Few would agree that reducing such spending so drastically in the near- or medium-term would generate growth. Again, austerity.  And the economy performed poorly at those debt levels anway, failing to create adequate jobs or raise wages.

    He claims that the tax system discourages work. One would have liked more detail here, but he wants reduced marginal tax rates.  The evidence is abundantly clear that there is no serious academic evidence to support his claim.

    On our website, you can find work by Peter Lindert and Jon Bakija, which thoroughly refute these claims. But more to the point, Lindert and Bakija, both serious academics, look at the research of others, they just don’t ignore it, as does Hubbard in this FT piece.  They confront it and  show where the research fails. 

    Is this the job of academics? Is this what Hubbard teaches his students?  Small-government economists might counter that public economists must be given more leeway.  But in truth, Pauk Krugman, the focus of so much right wing criticism,  usually deals explicitly with counter-arguments in his blog and often in his column; he does not simply does cite evidence to support his case without a broader context.

    We intend our web site to offer broad, honest argument, to enrich the public discussion, not to narrow it.

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  • A Shameful Few Weeks Begs the Question: Where’s Government?

    Jul 17, 2012Jeff Madrick

    With the recent crises in the financial world, it's clearer than ever that we need government to step up and address our problems.

    With the recent crises in the financial world, it's clearer than ever that we need government to step up and address our problems.

    There are certain periods in our history during which one can only sit back and wonder what the limits of astonishment really are. A couple of years since Dodd-Frank first passed, we have come through a period of such disrepute for business that one wonders why the working class has not risen as one — except, of course, because it is exhausted with efforts at reform that seem so futile. We have uncovered many disreputable and perhaps fraudulent business activities, but they essentially represent a failure of government. 

    Facebook's initial public offering collapsed in price, leaving small investors holding the bag. Brokers took care of their big customers far better than their small ones. Where was the SEC?

    New insider trading convictions, most recently of the widely respected Goldman Sachs director Rajan Gupta, show how rampant trading on insider information really is. The $6 billion losses at JPMorgan Chase by a department that was supposed to neutralize risk showed that trading risk is too profitable to be foregone voluntarily.

    And now we find out that LIBOR is incontrovertibly rigged. Some may not realize that Barclays, which agreed to pay a $450 million fine, signed a Statement of Facts that admitted its traders rigged this key rate to make profits on positions, and collaborated with bankers/traders at other banks. Now we find out that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, while president of the New York Fed, was worried and even wrote British regulators about this. That’s nice. But why didn't government — and Tim Geithner himself — actually do something about it? Are government regulators that feckless?

    Of course, there was a certain political advantage in a LIBOR that could be fudged. LIBOR is the rate at which banks lend to each other. It should be nearly riskless, and is therefore used as such in many transactions. LIBOR was the basis, in fact, for up to 100 percent of subprime mortgages. It is often a key input into complex pricing models for securities like derivatives and collateralized debt obligations.     

    It could be that the Bank of England looked the other way when some bankers, including Barclays's, lied and said they were paying a lower interest rate than they were in order to make it seem their credit was good. Especially in the fall of 2008, after Lehman’s collapse, governments wanted to calm the waters. Did the Fed also tolerate fudging the numbers?

    Why wouldn’t they? The Treasury puts a better face on matters all the time, as does the White House, no matter who is president. PR is an integral part of government. Has the practice in this age of greed slid off onto regulatory agencies? Surely Ben Bernanke was overly optimistic about controlling any impending subprime wreckage in 2007 because he knew it was better to err on the side of Pollyanish hopes that risk precipitating a crisis. What better way to underplay a crisis than to let the banks do it for you?

    But for all these remarkable events — and government failures — most disturbing is the ongoing demands for austerity that even President Obama himself makes. The president wants to extend tax cuts for all except those who make $250,000 or more. But he cannot make the case without saying we have to get our fiscal house in order. The nation is likely to need stimulus. But Obama bought into the budget balancing process so early on by appointing Bowles and Simpson to come up with a solution that there is no effective opposition to impending obtuse budget policies in late 2012 and 2013. The classic case is made by the CEO of Honeywell on the front page of the Financial Times. Seeking to blame Republicans and Democrats alike, the esteemed chairman and member of the Bowles-Simpson Commission claims that business has no confidence until this is resolved.

    The truth is more simple. Uncertainly surrounds the possibility that the Republicans will hold up the government again, claiming they demand budget cutting. And Mitt Romney promises to do far more damage. There is no contest between the two, and let’s keep in mind that Obamacare, and even Dodd-Frank, contain very good measures that Romney would try to overturn.  

    As we end a bad few weeks and start a period of remedying the damage, let’s keep in mind that America’s fiscal problems in the near run are highly exaggerated. But even down the road, the problem is not what we spend, but the tax cuts we have been giving ourselves for 30 years. I will begin to believe the sincerity of arch deficit hawks when they argue for tax hikes, not only cuts in Medicare and Social Security. And so should the chairman of Honeywell and others of influence like him.

    The myths of austerity economics are paralyzing the government and keeping the nation from getting its house in order. How may times can one say it? Not often enough, apparently.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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  • Government and Economic Growth: Correcting Common Mythology

    Jul 2, 2012Jeff Madrick

    The claim that the size of government is inversely related to growth is misguided and detrimental. 

    The claim that the size of government is inversely related to growth is misguided and detrimental. 

    A major purpose of the Rediscovering Government initiative is to counter unfounded and damaging claims about the effects of government on an economy’s growth. The Financial Times published a letter on June 27th, which asserted that all economists agree the size of government is inversely related to growth and that high levels of debt tamper growth. I wrote a brief letter challenging such all-too-common mythology, which was published on June 28th.

    See the letter below, followed by links to first-rate scholars’ work that can be found on our web site. This in turn is followed by a link to a well-documented rebuttal to the widespread claim that debt of 90 percent affects growth negatively. Is there really a demarcation point beyond which debt as a percent of GDP slows growth? Many observers have simplistically adopted the Reinhardt-Rogoff analysis that debt of 90 percent of GDP is a threshold, but it is not considered valid by many economists because the analysis is so dependent on a few atypical post World War II years in the U.S. This criticism of Reinhardt-Rogoff can be found below. Finally, the UNCTAD economist, Ugo Panizza, wrote us and sent his own fine work on the subject. We link to that here as well.

    On issues involving the uses and purposes of government, we at Rediscovering Government will respond to mythologies and deliberately misleading arguments as quickly and responsibly as possible. Our aim is to correct and nourish the public discourse.

     

    FINANCIAL TIMES, June 29, 2012

    Bold statements – but few will agree

    From Mr Jeff Madrick.

    Sir, Andrew Sussman (Letters, June 28) makes two bold assertions that require correction.

    He says there is an inverse relationship between the size of government and growth. This is untrue. Serious economists agree there is no such statistical relationship. Many big government states have grown faster than the US.

    Even more boldly, he states that “one thing all economists agree on” is that if debt reaches 90 per cent of gross domestic product, growth will slow markedly. This is based on a paper by Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff that has been widely criticised. Few economists agree with this simple conclusion.

    Jeff Madrick, The Roosevelt Institute, New York, NY, US

     

    1. Peter Lindert Bio

    Full Presentation

    Presentation Handout

    2. Jon Bakija Bio

    Full Presentation

    Presentation Handout

    3. Lane Kenworthy Bio

    Full Presentation

    Presentation Paper

    4. A criticism of Reinhardt-Rogoff

    5. Is High Public Debt Harmful for Economic Growth?  

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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  • The Start of Something Big: Obamacare May Renew Faith in Government

    Jun 29, 2012Jeff Madrick

    The Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act yesterday can be a pivotal point in the restoration of faith in government. 

    With the affirmation of Obamacare, it is now up to the president to make clear to Americans how much help it will provide them. There are even bigger stakes than health care; this can be the pivot point around which faith in government can be restored. It is the main theme of our Rediscovering Government initiative.

    The Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act yesterday can be a pivotal point in the restoration of faith in government. 

    With the affirmation of Obamacare, it is now up to the president to make clear to Americans how much help it will provide them. There are even bigger stakes than health care; this can be the pivot point around which faith in government can be restored. It is the main theme of our Rediscovering Government initiative.

    One can only hope the president won’t back off. Of course, the intense concern about the deficit can be hobbling, and it's a concern the president has too readily bought into. But it is now time to rejoice. Obamacare is full of what I’d call minimal decency, which is a big step up from the insensitive health care system the nation built—a cruel system because it left so many out. 

    The law is complex but has so many good points, from closing the senior drug doughnut hole, to requiring insurance companies to take all comers regardless of pre-existing conditions, to ending lifetime caps on insurance payments, to providing understandable insurance plans for all managed by state exchanges, that it would take an hour or so if the president were to make a speech explaining them.

    It also has faults, but not the ones the Republicans and extreme right are likely to point out, which will revolve around denying freedom in some way or other. Let's remind the anti-government right that healthy people are far freer than unhealthy ones.

    Costs are an issue. Sadly, the Supreme Court majority voted to allow states to deny Medicaid coverage in the new bill. But perhaps this will be a rallying point for political activity in state capitals. Obamacare does have some mechanisms to reduce general costs, but we will need more effective ones to deal with rising health care costs in the 2020s. Let’s remember that an affordable public option—an alternative to private insurance—could eventually be added if the public starts to support Obamacare and elects congressional representatives willing to vote for such an option. This could do a lot to keep costs down.   

    Here’s a link to a piece I did on Obamacare for the New York Review of Books that may be of some help. 

    Again, however, Obama should use his health care victory as a message that government is necessary, can work, and will make America a far better place. The purpose of government is the issue of the age.

    See the article from today’s New York Times, by Mark Landler, which repeats many of our own themes about government. Let’s try to make this a new beginning. As the economist Annette Bernhardt just said to me, “the president now has a second chance.”

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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  • The French Economic Experiment

    Jun 27, 2012Jeff Madrick

    Francois Hollande's novel economic policies in France should be monitored closely, to see if they are successful. 

    The new president of France, Francois Hollande, has announced unusual new economic measures that everyone should pay attention to. They represent a decided turn away from the destructive policies of the eurozone so far, and even violate basic neoclassical economic principles. We all ought to watch closely to see if they succeed.

    Francois Hollande's novel economic policies in France should be monitored closely, to see if they are successful. 

    The new president of France, Francois Hollande, has announced unusual new economic measures that everyone should pay attention to. They represent a decided turn away from the destructive policies of the eurozone so far, and even violate basic neoclassical economic principles. We all ought to watch closely to see if they succeed.

    While almost everyone in Europe is calling for lower wages, Hollande is raising his country’s minimum wage faster than inflation. He thus has favored a view of the economy called demand-led growth, which suggests higher wages will increase demand sufficiently to promote more growth. It is a version of Keynesianism, long since dropped by most American Keynesians. I discuss this at some length in a piece for New America Foundation, called "A Case for Wage-Led Growth."

    He is also proposing a 75 percent income tax on those who make more than 1 million euros a year, and higher taxes on dividends. Many think raising taxes in a recession is anathema, but raising taxes on the rich will not hurt the nation. It will not affect their spending very much.

    Thus, he stokes demand with higher wages for lower income people and satisfies the budget crisis with higher taxes on the wealthy. Not bad. There are hints he will also propose budget cuts, which would mistakenly play into the hands of the austerity advocates. We shall see.

    The problem of course is that the wage increase is skimpy, to say the least. Another problem—and a bigger one—is that a higher-wage policy has to be taken broadly across Europe and led by the Germans. This is what I advocate in the New America piece. While German ministers have talked about higher wages there, they are not taking aggressive action.

    Still, let’s keep an eye on the French experiment. It is a bit of fresh air in a compression chamber of stifling, self-centered economic policy-making.

    Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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