Research Papers

Beyond Sticker Shock: Schmitt Asks What's Really Changed in Money in Politics in 2012

Oct 2, 2012

This paper presents a research agenda for journalists, activists, and reformers, highlighting the biggest issues regarding how money really works in our political system, what its effects are, and how that's changing in the post-Citizens United

This paper presents a research agenda for journalists, activists, and reformers, highlighting the biggest issues regarding how money really works in our political system, what its effects are, and how that's changing in the post-Citizens United era aside from the soaring top-line numbers.

Key Questions:

  • Has money affected competition?
  • Does money affect polarization?
  • Do broadcast ads matter as much as they used to?
  • Have corporations changed their behavior?
  • Are there downsides to SuperPACs and other outside-money vehicles?
  • Do small donors still matter?
  • Can small-donor reforms withstand outside money?
  • Is reform finished as a bipartisan project?
  • Does the public care? 

Read the paper, "Beyond Sticker Shock: What's Really Changed in Money in Politics in 2012?"

 

 

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Research Papers

How Mortgage Debt is Holding Back the Recovery: Konczal Makes the Case for Principal Reductions

Jun 28, 2012

Three years into the recovery, Americans are still struggling with underwater mortgages and economic growth remains slow and painful. This paper marshals the most recent and robust research to prove that there is a clear link between between economic stagnation and high levels of household debt, indicating the need for mortgage principal reductions.

Key Findings:

Three years into the recovery, Americans are still struggling with underwater mortgages and economic growth remains slow and painful. This paper marshals the most recent and robust research to prove that there is a clear link between between economic stagnation and high levels of household debt, indicating the need for mortgage principal reductions.

Key Findings:

  • Several years into this recession, the overall amount of underwater mortgage debt is still very high. Recent estimates show that a third of all houses with a mortgage owe more than the home is worth, and the total amount of underwater mortgage debt could come to $1.2 trillion.
  • The most recent empirical evidence, from academic quarters to the IMF, shows that underwater mortgage debt is creating a drag on the economic recovery. The recovery is weaker in places where mortgage debt is the highest, as more mortgage debt results in lower consumption and higher unemployment.
  • Other explanations of the relationship between the housing crash and the weak economy, such as structural unemployment created by the house bubble, contain serious weaknesses.
  • Debt writedowns, foreclosure mitigation, and other housing sector specific policies are a crucial tools in dealing with this “balance-sheet recession” and getting the economy started again.
  • Foreclosures exacerbate these problems by creating vicious cycles of destructive economic activity. Some estimate that foreclosures have caused an additional 25 percent of the decline in economic activity.
  • The market is not likely to sort this out by itself. There are numerous conflicts within the system of servicers that manage mortgage debt that incentivize saddling consumers with greater burdens.

Read the paper: "How Mortgage Debt is Holding Back the Recovery."

Download a PowerPoint presentation on the paper.

 

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Research Papers

The GOP’s State Project of Slashing the Public Workforce

Mar 27, 2012

2011 saw one of the largest declines in the number of government employees on record. However, this decline in the states was not proportionate across all of them. This paper exposes the fact that Texas and the 11 states that were taken over by Republicans in 2010 – states that went from Democratic or mixed legislative control in 2009 to Republican control after the 2010 midterms – account for over two-thirds of the job losses.

Key findings:

2011 saw one of the largest declines in the number of government employees on record. However, this decline in the states was not proportionate across all of them. This paper exposes the fact that Texas and the 11 states that were taken over by Republicans in 2010 – states that went from Democratic or mixed legislative control in 2009 to Republican control after the 2010 midterms – account for over two-thirds of the job losses.

Key findings:

  • There was a 1.2 percent decline in 2011 in the number of public employees, the largest yearly decline of the Obama presidency and one of the largest on record. Public employment declined 2.6 percent over the last three years, the highest on record. This has had a significant drag on the economy as a whole.
  • Most of these losses were at the state level, but they weren’t spread out evenly across all states. The 2011 losses were concentrated in just 12. The 11 states that the Republicans took over during the 2010 midterm elections – Alabama, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – account for 40.5 percent of the total losses. By itself, Texas accounts for an additional 31 percent of the total losses. The remaining states make up the rest.
  • The 11 states that the Republicans took over in 2010 laid off, on average, 2.5 percent of their government workforces in a single year. This is compared to the overall average of 0.5 percent for the rest of the states.
  • In addition to the large losses in the public workforce, the 11 states that went Republican passed and enacted more reproductive freedom restrictions and voter suppression laws than states with mixed or Democratic legislatures. The push to target and lay off public employees fits in with more traditional conservative political policy priorities.

Read Working Paper 9: "The GOP’s State Project of Slashing the Public Workforce"

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Research Papers

Women Laid Off, Workers Sped Up: Konczal and Covert Uncover Clue to Gendered Recovery

Jul 28, 2011

This paper responds to the question raised by recent research from the Pew Research Center: Why are women losing jobs across virtually all private-sector industries while men are making minimal gains? A big clue can be found by looking at the specific types of jobs women are losing, mainly in administrative support roles.

Key findings:

This paper responds to the question raised by recent research from the Pew Research Center: Why are women losing jobs across virtually all private-sector industries while men are making minimal gains? A big clue can be found by looking at the specific types of jobs women are losing, mainly in administrative support roles.

Key findings:

  • When analyzed by occupation, much of women's disproportionate job loss can be explained by the jobs cut in the category "office and administrative support occupations."
  • In this category, women have lost a total of 925,000 jobs while men have gained 204,000. Women represent 75% of the nearly 17.6 million jobs in this occupation.
  • A compelling explanation for this new phenomenon is the fact that American workers are being asked to take on more duties without pay increases. Companies are laying off support staff and simply distributing their work to others.
  • While there may be long-term shifts taking place in the kind of work these positions will entail, in the short-term much more robust job creation is needed to help women maintain their support jobs.

Read Working Paper 8: "Women Laid Off, Workers Sped Up: Support Staff Hold a Clue to the Gendered Recovery"

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Research Papers

A World Upside Down? Ferguson and Johnson Take on Deficit Hysteria

Dec 2, 2010

This paper demonstrates that the current hysteria over deficits in the US is unjustified. Markets for even long term US government debt are strong.

Key findings:

· Claims that economic growth falls off at anywhere near current US levels of debt to GDP are untrue. Neither is it the case that cutting deficits magically stimulates the economy. And stories about 90% limits are untrue.

· The CBO August 2010 budget revision implies that the U.S. is less endangered than most analysts claim.

This paper demonstrates that the current hysteria over deficits in the US is unjustified. Markets for even long term US government debt are strong.

Key findings:

· Claims that economic growth falls off at anywhere near current US levels of debt to GDP are untrue. Neither is it the case that cutting deficits magically stimulates the economy. And stories about 90% limits are untrue.

· The CBO August 2010 budget revision implies that the U.S. is less endangered than most analysts claim.

· Private oligopolies in health and defense spending, along with the possibility of another banking crisis, are the real threats to the deficit, not entitlements.

· Social Security is in essentially no danger for decades and does not require any fix.

· It would be easy to stimulate the economy with a program of public investment that would substantially reduce public debts in the long run.

Read Working Paper 7: "A World Upside Down? Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession"

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Research Papers

Democracy in Peril: Burnham Looks at Dangerous Voter Turnout Trends

Dec 2, 2010

American turnout patterns are analyzed through comparisons with other countries and considerations of changes through time. The paper examines the effect of the New Deal on turnout, and, using Census data, considers how factors such as ethnicity and social class have influenced voter mobilization and demobilization, especially as the New Deal coalition has ebbed. It considers whether recent trends indicate an emerging crisis in our democracy.

Key findings:

· US voter turnout patterns stand out by comparison with other advanced societies.

American turnout patterns are analyzed through comparisons with other countries and considerations of changes through time. The paper examines the effect of the New Deal on turnout, and, using Census data, considers how factors such as ethnicity and social class have influenced voter mobilization and demobilization, especially as the New Deal coalition has ebbed. It considers whether recent trends indicate an emerging crisis in our democracy.

Key findings:

· US voter turnout patterns stand out by comparison with other advanced societies.

· The US locally centered system of election administration makes voting very difficult by international standards.

· The New Deal mobilized millions of new voters, but as the New Deal waned, voter turnout fell sharply.

· Big money and low turnout are a lethal combination for a democracy.

Read Working Paper 6: "Democracy in Peril"

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Research Papers

Deficit Reduction: Stiglitz Proposes Principles and Guidelines

Dec 2, 2010

This paper outlines proposals which should reduce the deficit by more than the goal of $4 trillion, increase growth, reduce the deficit/GDP ratio, and put the country on a more sustainable path. It offers an enunciated set of criteria against which we can judge the framework of shared sacrifice proposed by the Fiscal Commission.

Key findings:

Deficit reduction is not an end in itself, but a means to other objectives.

Spending that increases debt but simultaneously (over the long run) increases GDP can lower the debt-to-GDP ratio.

This paper outlines proposals which should reduce the deficit by more than the goal of $4 trillion, increase growth, reduce the deficit/GDP ratio, and put the country on a more sustainable path. It offers an enunciated set of criteria against which we can judge the framework of shared sacrifice proposed by the Fiscal Commission.

Key findings:

Deficit reduction is not an end in itself, but a means to other objectives.

Spending that increases debt but simultaneously (over the long run) increases GDP can lower the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Proposals from the Fiscal Commission Chairmen will lead to a less progressive tax system and a more divided society.

Deficit reduction goals must not be achieved on the backs of the less politically powerful or sacrifice the national interest to special interest groups.

Read Working Paper 5: "Principles and Guidelines for Deficit Reduction"

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Research Papers

The Stagnating Labor Market: Jayadev and Konczal Discover Unsettling Unemployment Trends

Sep 27, 2010

Roosevelt Institute Fellows Arjun Jayadev and Mike Konczal's  new Working Paper exposes common fallacies on why the labor market continues to stagnate.

Roosevelt Institute Fellows Arjun Jayadev and Mike Konczal's  new Working Paper exposes common fallacies on why the labor market continues to stagnate.

Key findings: the number of people out of the labor force who are no longer trying to find a job is steadily increasing, as the normal mechanisms for reentry have collapsed. It's now more likely for the unemployed to drop out than to find a job -- the first time this has happened as far back as data can be found. Jayadev and Konczal find that underemployment has risen due to a lack of aggregate demand, not a mismatch between workers' skills and available jobs.

Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist, suggests that former President Bill Clinton read this "important" new paper to understand the myths behind structural unemployment.

Read Working Paper 4: "The Stagnating Labor Market."

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Research Papers

The Boom Not The Slump: Commentary

Aug 23, 2010

We've had a lot of exciting feedback and commentary on our latest paper The Boom Not The Slump: The Right Time For Austerity, including discussion from Paul Krugman, Brad Delong, James Ledb

We've had a lot of exciting feedback and commentary on our latest paper The Boom Not The Slump: The Right Time For Austerity, including discussion from Paul Krugman, Brad Delong, James Ledbetter at Slate, Richard Exell at Touchstone Blog, Gregory White at Business Insider and Karl Whelan at Irish Economy. Thanks to everyone for discussing it.

We've updated the paper to an August 23rd edition taking in some feedback and cleaning up some typos, a formatting error in Table 1, and references to the count of total examples in the text.

We look forward to sharing future working papers with you, including exciting upcoming new work on unemployment and the national debt.

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The Boom Not the Slump: Jayadev and Konczal Combat Flawed Deficit Logic

Aug 19, 2010

Recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research put out a paper written by Alberto F. Alesina and Silvia Ardagna, which critically analyzes the Reinhart and Rogoff arguments about debt-to-GDP ratios and growth. Unconvinced of Alesina and Ardanga's findings, Roosevelt Institute Fellows Arjun Jayadev and Mike Konczal have written a paper conveying their perspective.

Among Jayadev and Konczal's key findings: Countries historically do not cut their deficits in a slump, but instead address these problems during a non-recessionary time. And when countries do cut in a slump, that action often results in...

Recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research put out a paper written by Alberto F. Alesina and Silvia Ardagna, which critically analyzes the Reinhart and Rogoff arguments about debt-to-GDP ratios and growth. Unconvinced of Alesina and Ardanga's findings, Roosevelt Institute Fellows Arjun Jayadev and Mike Konczal have written a paper conveying their perspective.

Key findings: Countries historically do not cut their deficits in a slump, but instead address these problems during a non-recessionary time. When countries do cut in a slump, that action often results in lower growth and/or higher debt-to-GDP ratios. In very few circumstances are countries able to successfully cut during a slump; this happens only when either interest rates and/or the exchange rates fall sharply.

Read Working Paper 3: "The Boom Not the Slump: The Right Time for Austerity"

 

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