Myths About Government

Jun 20, 2012Jeff Madrick

The Rediscovering Government roundtable discussion in DC tomorrow sets out to debunk misconceptions about government spending and the economy and reinvigorate a dialogue about the importance and positive potential of government. 

The Rediscovering Government roundtable discussion in DC tomorrow sets out to debunk misconceptions about government spending and the economy and reinvigorate a dialogue about the importance and positive potential of government. 

Perhaps it isn’t odd that the American people are so skeptical of the uses and purposes of government. As a nation built on a revolution against a monarchy, such skepticism is likely built into our national character.

But it doesn’t accord with our history, and that is why it remains surprising. Government was inseparable from American economic and social development. It did not reduce freedom, but protected it.

I am always disturbed when economists in particular talk about the “role of government.” It is like talking about the role of parents in their children’s lives, or the role of the basketball in a basketball game. There is no economy without government, even in America. The government does not merely correct market failures; its purpose is far more profound. It is about true freedom, true opportunity, and necessary change.

We have organized an important panel discussion on June 21st in Washington, D.C., to put to rest some of the prevailing myths about government. Peter Lindert of the University of California at Davis will tell us about his empirical work on whether large government impedes growth; his extensive research shows it has not. Jon Bakija of Williams College will similarly tell us about how little hard evidence there is that high taxes impede growth. Lane Kenworthy of the University of Arizona will show how much of the income of the lower half of the distribution depends on social policies. Nancy Altman of Social Security Works will put straight the true finances of Social Security. And finally Ruy Teixeira of the Center for American Progress will tell us how extensive the American antagonism towards government is despite these facts, and whether these views can be changed.  

Our goal is to present a counter-narrative to the prevailing anti-government ideology. We will not argue that government is all good, requires no radical reforms, or cannot be made to work better. After all, why should we expect politicians to act in the interests of others, rather than their own sometimes contradictory interests?  

But there is reason to expect this, because it has happened time and again in American history. Moreover, acting in the interests of others is often acting in one’s self interest. Thomas Jefferson championed regulations of land sales in early America to make sure many people got a chance at ownership. The result was a strengthened democracy of secure and satisfied citizens.

His party built the canals through public financing in the states, led by New York. Many, and probably most, prospered when New York City became the giant hub of trade and commerce with the opening of the Erie Canal. American government created free and mandatory schools, subsidized the railroads, started technical colleges, and sanitized the cities, which in turn became sources of growth. In the 1800s, these activities were typically led by the state and local governments.

Markets don’t work when monopolies gather power, and the federal government in the next century set out to limit that from happening. It protected workers in all kinds of ways. In the 1930s, it recognized that financial markets were different from others and required special regulations. It built highways, invested in medical and technical research, subsidized college, and established necessary product, safety, and environmental regulations.   

As Lane Kenworthy points out in his fine summary piece on our site, if big government were a problem, why did the U.S. economy keep growing fast even as government got bigger?  

And let me point out one other factor that is neglected. As I emphasized in my book, The Case for Big Government, government is the key agent of change. No one anticipated we’d need high schools and colleges when the Constitution was written, but government was the instrument to create these critical institutions. No one knew of germ theory, but government led the way in sanitizing water and making large cities habitable. Who knew about the computer chip?

Perhaps I am biased because I live in New York. The New York City government eventually took over and aggressively expanded the subways. It built the dramatic walls of Riverside Drive, so often neglected. Miracle of miracles, it collects the garbage in this densest of cities.

But consider the great water works of the west. This was the work of state and federal government. And the highways, of course.  And the university system of California, among others.

If one needs further historical examples, consider the first great European city, Rome. Its aqueducts and enormous road network were the work of the government. Its devotion to law is a model to this day. It was highly productive and conducive to commerce because of these advances.  

American attitudes towards government have always shifted; sometimes pro-government and public investment and social programs, sometimes against them. We were usually at our best when we favored government, but government was far from always efficient. America was not immune to substantial corruption. Government always needed a good wringing out. But when it was widely vilified and weakened, America often failed. Political instability, widespread sacrifice, and jeopardized democracy were results.  

As for contemporary times, the Great Depression was an important catalyst. It turned an already partly progressive nation (since Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson) far more so. It gave us a minimum wage, unemployment insurance, Social Security, labor organizing protections, securities regulations, and great public works to create jobs. The New Deal was followed by Johnson’s remarkable Great Society in the 1960s -- Medicare, Medicaid, historic civil rights legislation, and on. The American social sphere was brought into modern time along with its economy, which required those social investments.

But these attitudes shifted strongly beginning in the 1970s. Attitudes towards government had already become somewhat more skeptical in the 1960s, with new poverty programs and racial demands. The Vietnam War was a further blow to confidence in government, as was the Watergate scandal.  

In my view, however, the economic devastation of the 1970s was the major blow. Inflation of 12 percent, unemployment soaring, mortgage rates at 18 percent. In 1972, Governor Ronald Reagan of California supported a referendum to demand a sharp and permanent cut in state income taxes. Californians voted against it; they said they would pay their state taxes. By 1978, only six years later, Proposition 13 passed overwhelmingly, sharply cutting property taxes and with it undermining the state’s great education system.  Nationally, the Kemp-Roth tax proposal to cut federal income taxes up to 30 percent was rapidly gaining support in Congress. Economic pain caused Americans to seek quick and sometimes vindictive solutions, even personally self-destructive ones.  

In my view, the lost faith in and mismanagement of government is the key cause of the crisis of the future the nation now faces. This lost faith resulted in deregulation, unaffordable tax cuts, and the failure of government to develop new programs and act as the agent of change it should be.  

We can argue about these issues philosophically. But Rediscovering Government will stay as close to the demonstrable facts as possible. We will present the evidence about government, the economy, and growth. Then we can discuss how to restore a true sense of our own history, rebalance our sense of the purpose of government, and move on constructively.  

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

 

Capitol image via Shutterstock.com.

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Reagan Redux: The Truth About Romney Economics

Jun 15, 2012Jeff Madrick

The oversimplification of Romney’s economic plan avoids calling it out for what it really is: an extension of failed Republican economic policies.

In the home of Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick this week, The New York Times reported that President Obama described Romney’s campaign attacks, which claim all current problems are “the fault of the guy in the White House,” as “an elegant message. It happens to be wrong.”

The oversimplification of Romney’s economic plan avoids calling it out for what it really is: an extension of failed Republican economic policies.

In the home of Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick this week, The New York Times reported that President Obama described Romney’s campaign attacks, which claim all current problems are “the fault of the guy in the White House,” as “an elegant message. It happens to be wrong.”

This is as clear an example as we have of Obama’s inability to make a powerful message in a few words. Sounding professorial, he uses the word “elegant” as if referring to a mathematical proof. Clean and simple, I suppose. But to many a listener and reader, elegant only has positive connotations. Why this loftiness when plain, honest, focused language will do the job?

The fact is that almost all of our current situation is a result of economic policies that were put into effect before Obama took office. Not only is Romney’s message not elegant, but his economic plan will boldly extend these failed policies. His central message is simplistic, ignorant, and, to use a lofty word, ahistorical. In actuality, the plan has been underway since the 1980s and even before, and look where it’s gotten us. It serves the interests of the wealthy very well, but has it served America at all? It’s not the collapse of the welfare state, but the ravages of a rising oligarchy, that are undoing America.

Which brings me to another New York Times piece, today’s David Brooks column. Brooks’s methodology as a “thinker” is to develop arguments that he knows will sound plausible to his readers and maybe to a significant swatch of centrists. He is good at these over-simplifications. Today’s column is as unaware or deliberately neglectful of history as ever. What Democrats don’t understand is that the system is broken, he says. Republicans understand this and want to return us to some early (if mythological) economic state. The welfare state is on the cusp of failing; he quotes a Weekly Standard piece on this idea that he thinks definitive. This welfare model, he goes on, “favors security over risk, comfort over effort, stability over innovation.”

This is breathtaking nonsense. The so-called welfare state—whose main features are benefits to the elderly, by the way—favors opportunity for those who have no access to it,  substantial government investment in education and research, which are the great sources of innovation, adequate transportation to enable business to operate efficiently, and fewer and more moderate recessions so that the nation does not lose investment, human capital, and many good businesses due to short-term fluctuations.

And, oh, yes, the welfare state does promote some compassion for the less fortunate—those thrown out of work through no fault of their own—and a sense that all of us owe something to each other. And, yes, it does require government.

What’s truly mind-numbing about the Brooks view, which clearly represents a Republican body of what is considered highly sensible thought, is that all the Romney proposals have been on the ascendancy since Ronald Reagan, and some of them before. These include lower progressive tax rates (Reagan and Bush); deregulation and weak regulatory implementation (Reagan, Bush I and II, Carter, and most important for financial regulations, Clinton); reduced social spending on many categories, notably welfare (Reagan and Clinton); few new programs even as social needs change; and inordinately tight monetary policy since Paul Volcker’s chairmanship at the Federal Reserve, to keep inflation and therefore wages in check. And what happened? Stagnating wages, modest capital investment, unequal public education, and collapsing infrastructure. These are the results of Romney economics.       

If there is theory at all in the Brooks view, it is of course the spurious generalization that individualism will win the day. Just make everyone take care of him or herself. Republicans love this notion. The other idea is that if business is just allowed to do its job, free of most regulation and taxes, everyone will do just fine.  The historical evidence clearly points to the opposite. Look at the levels of inequality in the good old regulation-free and low-tax days of post-Civil War America. Do you we need a better example?

Returning to Obama—he better fight this battle head on, not in professorial dignities, but on the sweaty mat where victory is won. He better understand that the Brooks's over-simplifications are appealing because they blame victims and relieve the rest of responsibility. Call these things what they are, Mr. President. Make America the responsible society once again. The Romney policies failed not just since George W. Bush, but since Ronald Reagan and even Jimmy Carter. 

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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How Does Private Equity Really Make Money?

Jun 12, 2012Eileen Appelbaum

Attempts at turnarounds of failing companies are only a very small portion of private equity investments. 

Attempts at turnarounds of failing companies are only a very small portion of private equity investments. 

The distinguishing feature of private equity (PE) buyouts is that they are changes in the ownership and control of operating companies in the later stages of a company's history. The transactions are led by a private equity firm, and the firm sponsors PE funds that purchase operating companies for their portfolios. The PE firm is the general partner (GP) and makes all the decisions; pension funds and other investors are limited partners (LPs). Acquisition of an operating company entails extensive debt financing, with the burden of the debt falling on the acquired company, which is responsible for repaying it. The focus in this post is on the sources of gains to private equity investors from these leveraged buyouts.

Maybe most important, we begin by noting that private equity is not mainly engaged in buying up failing companies and trying to turn them around. The disproportionate emphasis in the media and by PE firms on efforts to turn around failing companies paints a distorted picture of what private equity does. Bill Clinton unfortunately bought into this view when he tried to explain what’s good about private equity on PBS NewsHour: "I’ve got a friend who buys failing companies, and he tries to turn them around. And he’s turned a bunch of them around, but not all of them. So sometimes he tried and failed. The effort was honorable. That’s a good thing."

The reality is that distressed investing makes up only a thin sliver of private equity investments, typically 1 to 2 percent of annual PE investments. Indeed, a study of 3,200 firms and 150,000 establishments found that establishments acquired in private equity buyouts had faster employment growth prior to takeover than comparable establishments not targeted by private equity. Private equity mainly acquires successful companies.

The sweet spot for private equity is a company doing okay in an industry whose fortunes are about to improve dramatically. This can be a source of PE returns, but it is the result of successfully timing the market.  Management fees that PE firms charge limited partners account for about two-thirds of the earnings of PE firms, but this affects the distribution of gains between GPs and LPs, and not the amount.  Net returns to investors of these fees are unclear. Top quartile PE funds are able to beat the S&P 500 index, but results for funds below the 75th percentile are ambiguous. Returns to large pension funds rarely exceed the stock market by more than the premium for holding illiquid assets. Our focus is on the nature of the private equity business model and what this tells us about the sources of aggregate gains to the GP and LP investors.

Several characteristics of the PE business model directly impact the operations of their portfolio companies:

First, private equity investments are illiquid and more highly leveraged than investments in publicly traded companies–hence, more risky. They need to yield high returns to be worth undertaking.

Second, the high debt that portfolio companies must service means they must quickly achieve an increased and predictable cash flow. Cutting costs by squeezing labor is the surest way to accomplish this.

Third, the PE model is the opposite of "patient capital." While limited partners make a long-term commitment to the PE fund, portfolio companies have only a short time to show results.

Fourth, asset stripping is typical in retail. When PE buys a department store chain, it typically splits it into a property company (prop-co) that owns the real estate and facilities that house the stores and an operating company (op-co) that runs the business. The op-co now must pay rent and no longer has a buffer to help it survive in volatile markets. PE sells the prop-co, making a profit on its initial investment regardless of whether the stores prosper.

Finally, PE will not undertake long-term investments in its portfolio companies unless capital markets are efficient and reward such investments with a higher price when the company is sold.

In most cases, top executives in operating companies face perverse incentives. They are handed a debt structure, asked to put up some of their own wealth, and promised great riches if they meet the targets set by the PE firm. If they fail to deliver quickly, they can expect to be fired. One study found that 39 percent of CEOs were replaced in the first 100 days and 69 percent in a four-year period. Like the hangman’s noose, this tends to focus managers’ minds on aggressive cost cutting.

Operational "value add" – the development and implementation of a business strategy that takes an operating company to the next level, and/or improvements in operations (supply chain management, modernization, process improvements, worker engagement) – harnesses the PE owners’ access to superior management skills and capital markets to improve performance. Buyouts of family-owned businesses and acquisitions of hospitals that lack funding to stay abreast of the latest technology are examples, as is distressed investing that rescues companies from bankruptcy. In these instances, private equity creates economic value as well as gains for PE investors. The evidence of these operating gains is thin, however, and even sympathetic academic studies are not persuasive. Greater transparency by this notoriously private industry would help establish how widespread such economic wealth-creating practices are.

The creation of economic value is one source of private equity gains. It is not the only source, however, and is often not the main source.

A second source of gains is a transfer from workers to PE investors, as employees at healthy companies that are performing well are laid off and those that remain are subject to an intensification of work. Wages and benefits may be reduced to increase predictable cash flow. Work may be shifted from union to non-union facilities. While such actions may be necessary in the case of distressed firms in need of a turnaround, the practice is applied far more widely.

Transfers from portfolio companies to PE owners are a third source of private equity gains. The portfolio company’s private equity shareholders may require it to issue junk bonds or may dip into its cash flow in order to pay them a dividend – a so-called dividend recapitalization. PE takes funds that should be used to improve portfolio company operations and create economic value. Often, this creates financial distress for the portfolio company and may even drive it into bankruptcy.

The op-co/prop-co model in retail also transfers assets from the portfolio company to its PE owners. The PE investors enrich themselves at the expense of the portfolio company, which receives little or none of the proceeds of the sale of the real estate assets. As a result, the risk of bankruptcy of the operating company increases. It may get into financial trouble and have to shutter some stores or close down entirely. As a result, the pace of job destruction in PE-owned retail establishments is far greater than in comparable non-PE owned establishments; over a five-year period, the difference cumulates to 12 percent.                 

A fourth source of gains is a transfer from taxpayers to private equity – what a state economic development officer termed "taxpayer financed capitalism." The leverage used to acquire the portfolio company alters its debt structure, increases its debt, and, because of the favorable tax treatment of debt compared to equity, reduces the company’s tax liabilities. Lower taxes raise the bottom line and increase the value of the company by 4 to 40 percent , thus increasing the returns to private equity without increasing economic value. In addition, the PE firm is more likely to be able to use tax arbitrage to legally avoid taxes. Some acquisitions are made for this purpose rather than to create value.

The final two sources of PE gains were identified in the first wave of leveraged buyouts in the 1980s. Shleifer and Summers identified breach of trust as a possible source of increased returns following an LBO. Stable enterprises depend on implicit contracts between shareholders and other stakeholders. Private equity can get a quick boost to a portfolio company’s bottom line by reneging on implicit contracts. This, however, undermines the trust necessary to the long-term sustainability of the portfolio company. Ackerlof and Romer identified the possibility of bankruptcy for profit. This occurs when a PE firm takes a portfolio company into bankruptcy and then buys it out of bankruptcy. The PE firm is still the owner, but the debts of the company have been slashed and its pension liabilities have been transferred to a government agency, the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation. The PE firm comes out ahead, but lenders take a haircut and workers receive reduced pensions.

The goal of public policy is to reduce incentives for rent-seeking activities by PE firms. There are several key policy changes that could have this effect: 

First, we can limit the tax deductibility of interest to remove the incentive to overleverage the acquired company. This will reduce the amount of debt placed on companies acquired by private equity. Highly leveraged companies perform poorly in volatile markets and have high rates of bankruptcy during economic downturns.

Second, we can raise the tax rate on capital gains received by individuals. There is no economic rationale for treating interest payments differently than dividends.

Third, we can tax "carried interest" – the share of the gains claimed by PE general partners, among others – as ordinary income. It is a bonus or pay for good performance and should be taxed as such.

Finally, we can require firms to make severance payments based on years of service when laying off workers. This would make layoffs a last resort rather than the first. 

Eileen Appelbaum is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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What Lies Behind Clinton's Remarks on Private Equity

Jun 7, 2012Jeff Madrick

Bill Clinton's remarks about Romney's record and the Bush tax cuts demonstrate his fealty to the financial sector.

Bill Clinton's remarks about Romney's record and the Bush tax cuts demonstrate his fealty to the financial sector.

We can attribute Bill Clinton making trouble for President Obama to his unquenchable need for the limelight. He first praised Mitt Romney’s business record and private equity practices in general. He then said the Bush tax cuts should be extended, without indicating that he agreed with Obama that the tax increases on the wealthy should be retained.

Clinton’s concern about raising taxes in the weak economy while cutting federal spending is right on. America is now practicing austerity, if a milder version than Europe’s. If not reversed, we could well have a recession again in 2013. And then what happens to the still-strained financial sector?

But Clinton’s remarks are disturbing for what they suggest about his tolerance for the financial class, for lack of a better term. Was it an accident that he left out any mention of raising taxes on the wealthy? The financial class dominates that group, if we include business execs who make a great deal of money from their stock options.

The real giveaway about Clinton is how he supports the financial industry’s assertions about the good done by private equity. We’ve addressed some of that in this space before. Clinton says flat-out that they do a good job. Does he have any evidence to demonstrate that? Has he looked at the evidence that undermines those assertions? Does he really think private equity was all about saving companies rather than exploiting the ability to borrow against their assets, cut them down, and then sell the company? Was it all about making America more productive and innovative? Come on.

This is of course the Bill Clinton who wholeheartedly gave us financial deregulation—no regulation of derivatives, no restraints on bank expansion as Glass-Steagall was undone, little concern by his SEC about over-speculation and analytical lying in investment firms, allowing CEOs to get enormous stock options, and so on.

He has apparently bought the assertion that the financial engineering of the past 20 years was mostly good. Of course, Wall Street is where the campaign money is.

In his most recent book, Clinton argued for stronger government, a welcome call. But he was the one who gave us less government.

Next week, we will post a thorough piece by economist Eileen Appelbaum on the good and bad of privatization. In the meantime, keep in mind that the heyday of privatizations, then known as Leveraged Buyouts, was the 1980s, when productivity growth for America remained historically slow. It did not rise again until the mid-1990s, with the advent of the Internet. The large, large share of productivity gains was in high technology and companies like Wal-Mart, not in the buyouts of companies by Bain and others.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

 

Bill Clinton image via Shutterstock.

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Austerity Replaces Economics With Disciplinarian Ideology

Jun 6, 2012Jeff Madrick

Ludger Schuknecht's insistance on continued austerity is merely a discipinarian's argument, which has already been proven wrong time and again. 

Ludger Schuknecht's insistance on continued austerity is merely a discipinarian's argument, which has already been proven wrong time and again. 

The letter in today’s Financial Times, "Jointly Agreed Strategy is Good for Germany and Europe," from Ludger Schuknecht, the Director General of the German Ministry of Finance, will likely live in infamy. In any case, frame it for your children as a symbol of the folly of mankind. In the sternest terms, Mr. Schuknecht chastises Martin Wolf for demanding a reversal of fiscal austerity. Why? “The public and markets have been led to believe in short-term measures for far too long.” Goodbye to Keynes, and even Friedman.

Moreover, he argues, “it is expansionary policies and weak fiscal positions that created the current problems of high debt and low competitiveness.” Of course, the Eurozone deficit was only 0.5 percent of GDP before the crisis. In Spain, fiscal policy was clearly restrained before the crisis. Few could argue the European Central Bank practiced loose monetary policy over these years.  

According to Mr. Schuknecht, we need “a combination of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms.” And all of this with the goal of rebuilding confidence. How can we be hearing this again, after the failure of austerity in country after country?  Now even the conservative Spanish government is admitting failure.

Evidence is not the issue here. Surely the impressive IMF research on the failure of austerity time and again cannot be simply dismissed. But dismiss it Mr. Schuknecht clearly does. Heaven forbid we introduce Eurobonds, which will undermine the confidence being built.

Clearly the German government sees confidence somewhere, but it is surely not in the financial markets.

I long to ask Mr. Schuknecht what he believes caused the Great Depression. He may have written about this somewhere; I assume he thinks uncertainty and government spending were the causes. I wonder if he can point to one credible case where austerity worked without a concurrent devaluation of the currency.

But such arguments do not seem to turn on evidence or theory.  They come from the stern gut of a schoolmaster, and they come from a nation that has yet to suffer the consequences of the current crisis. The inability or refusal to see ahead is the sure sign of an ideologue. But I think this is not even ideology; it is the instinct of the disciplinarian. And it is mixed with a desire to diminish government. Another rap on the knuckles with the ruler will bring confidence, confidence will bring investment, and investment, prosperity. We were told the same in the 1930s, but never mind all that.  

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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Defending Krugman: The Importance of Keynesian Economics

May 25, 2012Jeff Madrick

Keynes was right: increased government spending in the U.S. is necessary to decrease unemployment and raise demand in the near-term.

Paul Krugman hardly needs defending, but his views about the need for Keynesian stimulus in the U.S. right now are coming under considerable fire from centrist and left-of-center economists. I find this disturbing because Krugman’s view abides by basic Keynesian principles that seem to have been discarded by many who profess themselves Keynesians. Is there a wide misunderstanding of Keynes?

Keynes was right: increased government spending in the U.S. is necessary to decrease unemployment and raise demand in the near-term.

Paul Krugman hardly needs defending, but his views about the need for Keynesian stimulus in the U.S. right now are coming under considerable fire from centrist and left-of-center economists. I find this disturbing because Krugman’s view abides by basic Keynesian principles that seem to have been discarded by many who profess themselves Keynesians. Is there a wide misunderstanding of Keynes?

What seems to upset people is that Krugman argues the government must spend more money now, almost regardless of what it spends it on. The Keynesian thesis is that economies can settle at a high level of unemployment rather than re-adjust to the optimum unemployment level—or level of economic activity—on their own. This was a response to the classical, pre-Depression view that the beauty of free markets was a self-adjustment process based on falling prices in downturns. But ultimately the problem is a lack of demand, and Keynes advocated budget deficits to support an increase in demand.

The lack of demand in the economy now is palpable. Krugman’s contention is that in the near-term, we can solve this problem if we have the will to do so. The economy can reduce its rate of unemployment fairly rapidly with adequate Keynesian stimulus. It is clear that monetary stimulus at this point is not enough.

This view is not incompatible with longer-term concerns about the economy -- inadequate education for too many, infrastructure decay, old energy technologies, and so on. Many seem to criticize Krugman for not acknowledging “structural” changes in the economy, and they implicitly agree with classical conservative observers that the unemployment rate really can’t fall much below 7 percent. I can’t speak for Krugman, but he seems to be saying that we should not mix up longer-term structural issues with near-term demand inadequacy. It’s very likely the unemployment rate can fall much farther without igniting inflation.

I can’t see how he is wrong about this; indeed, he is urgently right about it. We are facing a year or two when the federal government will likely contract spending and will certainly not increase stimulus markedly. Of even greater concern is the refusal in Europe to recognize that austerity—the opposite of Keynesian advice right now—will lead to further recession, which in turn could spill over to the U.S., jeopardizing Obama’s candidacy.

When so many commentators criticize Krugman’s view, insisting that any new spending must be investment in infrastructure, must not go to the military, or that there should be no new spending at all, they are ignoring the Keynesian process. Krugman will not advocate against military spending cuts (and I certainly wouldn't myself). But priorities are important here. Let’s keep them clear.

In sum, let’s understand that more aggregate demand now will reduce the unemployment rate. There is a near-term solution, not to America’s long-term issues, but to an economy that is sputtering and may lead to a political environment in which those who plan to do more damage win office.  

One of the true advances in contemporary thinking is that both a power and a duty of government is to use fiscal and monetary policy to ameliorate downturns and create economic expansions. This is the legacy of Keynes, well supported by empirical research.  

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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The Case Against Tax Breaks for Private Equity

May 23, 2012Jeff Madrick

Private equity disproportionately rewards privatization companies while others are burdened with the risks. 

Private equity disproportionately rewards privatization companies while others are burdened with the risks. 

I wanted to wait a few days before commenting on Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s spontaneous criticism of Barack Obama for picking on Mitt Romney's experience at Bain Capital. Booker doesn’t know much of anything about private equity, but many financial services donors have his ear. He took in nearly half a million dollars in campaign donations from the industry over the last nine months, and he frankly sounded like its mouthpiece.

Booker backtracked, but it would be nice if he knew something about the private equity business before he spoke publicly about it. This expectation of knowledge should also apply to widely read columnists like David Brooks, who, as usual, reflexively defended the Wall Street practice without presenting evidence. He issued a piece of public relations diatribe that no doubt soothed the right but contributed nothing to our understanding. The contention is that these buyouts turned fat American companies into lean and productive ones since the 1970s. Other pundits less well known for their conservative reflex responses have also given partial defense of private equity.

So let’s begin with one point: there is a place for private equity. In a privatization or leveraged buyout, a company is bought by an investment partnership with moneys borrowed against the company itself. The new money can be used productively even when levels of debt against the company’s assets and profits soar. A smaller company that cannot raise adequate equity can raise money by being bought by a private equity partnership. A company that is doing poorly can benefit from added capital and new management. Sometimes trimming labor costs in the process makes sense, of course. 

But the record of leveraged buyouts and private equity reflects its excesses, and most importantly, the lopsided nature of the financial incentives for doing the deals in the first place. Companies like Romney’s Bain or Steve Schwartz’s Blackstone or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the early industry leader when privatizations were called leverage buyouts (LBO), take advantage of a major government-provided benefit. The interest on debt is tax-deductible, and high levels of debt are the source of profits in these transactions. It is just like buying a house with a small down payment; if you can sell as the value goes up, the return on the down payment is high and the interest was deductible all along. In the meantime, the house is collateral for the loan. Similarly, partners are rarely if ever on the line for the debt; the company being privatized is. The one difference is that if the collateral value of the house falls, as it has recently, the homeowner is on the line. This is usually not so with privatizers.  

Great deal? You bet. The owners of the privatizing firm put up very little capital; it is their limited partners who put up more.  Then they borrow like mad from banks, pension funds, hedge funds and so on. If the new company can be sold or brought to market again at a higher price, they make a bundle compared to their equity down payment. The CEOs of the company, or the new executives brought in, are given huge amounts of stock. They too make a bundle. Are these incentives conducive to good business decisions?

Most likely, the investment decision is based not on how much the company can be improved, but how much can be borrowed against its assets. The second concern is the interest rate on the debt. There is no evidence that privatizers mostly buy struggling companies to resuscitate them.

Moreover, companies with high levels of debt are subject to great risk of bankruptcy. Macy’s did one of the first leveraged buyouts of its size, the CEO made out wonderfully, and soon Macy’s was in bankruptcy. It reorganized and reemerged successfully due to its retailing skills, but these were not enhanced by the LBO partners.  

Data shows the newly bought firms create fewer new jobs—or result in more lost jobs—than firms that are not subject to private takeover. But what about the much-lauded productivity gains? On balance, these target firms mostly increase productivity by selling or closing low-productivity units. Arguably, they also make their employees work harder. The fear of lay-offs can enhance productivity. There is no evidence that these firms improve productivity mostly by investing in new technologies, new managerial methods, and so on, which is often their claim.

And of course what productivity gains they have had (overall they are small) did not reinvigorate the American economy. The two main sources of productivity gains in the U.S. were high-tech companies and the retailing behemoths led by WalMart. Many retailing targets of privatizations eventually went bankrupt.

The best recent paper on private equity was written by Eileen Appelbaum of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and Rosemary Batt of Cornell University. The David Brookses of the world will cry that these researchers are of a liberal bent. But read the paper to see how carefully it is done. The exegeses of much of the right in defense of private equity are essentially outright propaganda.   

However, the basic point comes back to government and regulation. A major tax advantage gives rise to these buyouts. The privatization partnerships are lightly regulated. After-fee returns to the limited partners seem to be below average. But as for their benefits to society, privatization rewards investors by cutting short-term costs. For a long time, the stock market pushed up the stock prices of companies that kept short-term earnings growing. The influence of such corporate governance has been to keep downward pressure on wages and stoke fear in employees for three decades.

Let’s be clear; some private equity investments were healthy and some of these partnerships do a good job. But all in all, it is clear most are simply exploitations of tax law, market fashions, and their power to borrow money. There is no reason America should reward these investors with a tax break on their huge loans.   

Privatizers didn’t rebuild America. They were rarely the people who planted the garden, watered it, or designed it.  They were by and large the ones who weeded it, sometimes recklessly, throwing out the gorgeous roses in the process. Gardens do need to be weeded, but should those who do the weeding, often heedlessly, make so much more money than those who do the planting? And with the added help of government tax breaks?

In the end, Romney’s Bain made money even though its takeover target, American Pad & Paper, went out of business. Consult Appelbaum and Batt on how some of these strategies work, involving mortgaging real estate holdings and transfer pricing to reduce taxes. Privatization was mostly, if not entirely, about working the system, not building capitalism.  On balance, evidence suggests it hurt more than helped. Any way you read the evidence, it is clear the rewards for private equity firms clearly exceeded the risks. That’s not good for free markets.  

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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Demand, Deficit, and Denial: A Simplified Case Against Austerity

May 17, 2012Robert Leighninger

President Roosevelt's legacy of public works programs offers insight into the importance of increased government spending to create jobs and restore the economy.

President Roosevelt's legacy of public works programs offers insight into the importance of increased government spending to create jobs and restore the economy.

It’s good to hear more economists talking about the foolishness of austerity in Europe and the United States. Some, including Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman, have been saying it for a long time, but the chorus has gotten louder recently. Still, I have yet to hear anyone put the argument in terms simple enough for the average citizen (including the average Republican not too tied in ideological knots) to understand. I’d therefore like to take a shot.

To reignite the economy, we need more people to buy things. For that to happen, we need to keep people in their present jobs, re-employ people who have lost jobs, and employ those just entering the job market. Once people are buying things, those who make the goods and services being bought will have reason to invest, hiring new workers and buying new machines that make things. They have no reason to invest now; there is no likely return on their investment.

Republicans have things backwards. They assume that investors will invest if we give them more money. But they already have lots of money. Why assume that giving them more will change their behavior? They’re not stupid (at least most of them aren’t). What they need is a prospect of profit.

Tax breaks aren’t any incentive. What good are lower taxes on income that you don’t have? What’s the point of hiring another worker if he or she will have nothing to do? Fewer regulations are equally irrelevant. This is why “uncertainty” and “confidence” (the claim that investors won't invest because they are uncertain what their taxes might be in the future or what new regulations they may face) are smokescreens.

What do you suppose investors would do if there were customers pouring through their doors? If goods and services were in demand and inventory was disappearing? They would not say, “No, I don’t think I’ll take advantage of this. I’ll forgo making a profit now because I don’t know what my taxes and regulations will be next year.”  More likely, the response would be, “Wow, we can sell more widgets now; let’s crank up production!”  

In the language of economists, this is a demand-side problem, not a supply-side problem. Republicans have been looking at the world through supply-side lenses for over 30 years and can’t see the total economy. They are blind to common sense.

So how do we get people to buy things? We can save good middle class jobs by aiding states so they can stop laying off teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public workers. We can create new jobs with large infrastructure projects. There are so many things on the landscape in need of repair or replacement that it shouldn’t be hard to employ or re-employ millions of people. In 1933, the Civil Works Administration (CWA) put 4 million people to work in two months. 

But good heavens, this will cost money! Yes, it will drive the deficit to new heights, and deficits are worth worrying about. But a stagnant economy will not reduce deficits. Putting people out of work through an austerity campaign only decreases revenues and cripples our ability to deal with deficits. A robust economy will handle the problem much more quickly. Restarting the economy will be expensive, but we need to spend the money. If your house is on fire, you don’t tell the fire department, “Don’t use too much water, I want enough for my morning shower.”

If Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package hadn’t been weighed down with so many useless tax cuts, we might not be having this conversation. The experience of the New Deal is relevant here. At its beginning, 25 percent of workers were out of work; when World War II started, it was down to 10 or 12 percent. That is significant progress. And there would have been even greater progress had President Roosevelt not twice stalled the recovery he had created. In March of 1934, after it was only four and a half months old and employing 4 million people, he pulled the plug on the CWA in spite of the fact that even the Wall Street Journal noticed its effect on the economy. He just didn’t want to believe that it was going to cost so much money to end the Depression. 

Once he had replaced the CWA with the Works Progress Administration (WPA), and after his other giant public works programs—the Public Works Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps—were fueling the recovery, Roosevelt again cut back. Despite the crisis, he still believed in a balanced budget. This return to orthodoxy produced a recession that by early 1938 was looking like 1929. His advisors finally persuaded him to restore the works programs, and thus he ended the recession. Had it not been for these two crises of confidence, the employment rate at the start of the war may have been lower than 10 percent, and we wouldn’t be hearing these claims that it was the war that ended the Depression.

Once demand is stimulated through public jobs, private investment will return and private jobs will increase. A healthy economy can then deal with deficits. It will be costly to regain that economy, but if we don’t, we will have both stagnation and deficits. 

Robert Leighninger is faculty associate in the School of Social Work at Arizona State University, and author of Long Range Public Investment: The Forgotten Legacy of the New Deal.

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Why Wall Street Needs Government Regulation to Save It From Itself

May 15, 2012Jeff Madrick

The inherent problems and contradictions of Wall Street trading make government intervention a necessity.  

The fiasco at JPMorgan Chase is most disturbing because it reflects the inherent riskiness of modern financial trading. Few articles have pinpointed this as the problem. It is the reason strong regulations and high capital requirements are necessary; you can’t outsmart these inherent contradictions.

The inherent problems and contradictions of Wall Street trading make government intervention a necessity.  

The fiasco at JPMorgan Chase is most disturbing because it reflects the inherent riskiness of modern financial trading. Few articles have pinpointed this as the problem. It is the reason strong regulations and high capital requirements are necessary; you can’t outsmart these inherent contradictions.

JPMorgan ran its trading operation out of its risk management group, which was supposed to offset risk, not take on new ones. But even if you are trying to implement a pure hedge—that is, minimize risk—there are two big issues here. One is the inefficiency of markets and the lack of adequate information. You can buy or sell a security—usually a derivative, or a leveraged security based on the ups and downs of another security—to hedge a position, such as a portfolio of bonds you think might readily fall in value. This was the Chase situation. 

However, the first problem with this is that the hedge is not necessarily properly priced, because the markets are inefficient and prices are not transparent to all. It is often too cheap. Second, the counter-party—the seller or buyer on the other side of the transaction—may not meet his or her commitment. This is what happened when AIG sold insurance (credit default swaps) to Goldman Sachs and then couldn’t pay it off without a government bailout when markets collapsed.

The next big issue is the human one. Judging from press accounts, JPMorgan wasn’t trying merely to hedge. In truth, there are no pure hedges or people wouldn’t make money at all. Nothing can eradicate risk completely. Rather, JPMorgan looked like they were taking long and short positions on balance—that is, trying to win bigger by guessing the direction of the markets, not just hedge.   

Again, there are two problems within this larger issue. First is the inalterable human temptation to make a big killing, especially when the individual bankers are being paid big bonuses to do so and suffer relatively little if they guess wrong. Call this asymmetric incentive. They may even have changed their own yardstick, or value at risk, to seem like they were taking less risk. No doubt they had some kind of argument to do so.

The second is a more subtle one. Traders usually believe that at some point securities prices will revert to their long-term values compared to each other. This was the philosophy behind the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). It is very likely the traders at JPMorgan doubled down rather than try to unwind their positions, believing that markets would soon adjust to some historical averages and prove them right. The people at LTCM bought when others were selling, certain that they could hold on until markets adjusted. They could not.

These basic facts of Wall Street life are inescapable. Thus, the JPMorgan fiasco is a repeat of what happened time and again in 2007 and 2008, such as with AIG, and what happened in the 1990s with LTCM, and many others.   

Why did Jamie Dimon think he knew better? The repetition even extends to the fact that the risk manager and the trader were friends. The same was true at Citigroup before it lost a ton of money, to the surprise of its own management, as mortgage markets began to crack a few years ago.

These are fundamental, baked-in problems for Wall Street trading. Some, like today’s Wall Street Journal, will say losses are a part of capitalism and capitalists learn from their errors. The main lesson here is that they don’t learn and they can’t.

This is a job for government. Tough regulations are needed. If these firms and their employees had to absorb their own losses, perhaps there would be justification for some of these risks. That banks like JPMorgan are supported by FDIC-insured funds, that they have shareholders, and that they are so big their losses will always be guaranteed by the taxpayers, are all reasons that strong regulations are necessary. Their losses were a failure of regulation once again, reflecting the continued need for strong capital requirements, a broader Volcker rule, and transparency and margin requirements in derivatives trading. Some of that is coming. Clearly, it is not here yet and may not be here at all.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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The Dimon Fiasco: A Stark Lesson on Why Finance Needs Government Regulation

May 11, 2012Jeff Madrick

J.P. Morgan Chase's trading losses are a perfect example of why we need increased government regulation of banks.

Many people see the $2 billion in trading losses announced by J.P. Morgan Chase as the quintessential example of why strong regulation is needed. There is a lot of irony in this story. It is a true story about the importance of government.

J.P. Morgan Chase's trading losses are a perfect example of why we need increased government regulation of banks.

Many people see the $2 billion in trading losses announced by J.P. Morgan Chase as the quintessential example of why strong regulation is needed. There is a lot of irony in this story. It is a true story about the importance of government.

When Sandy Weill, the rough and tough entrepreneur, ultimately built a financial conglomerate from many pieces—including Salomon, Smith Barney, and Travelers Insurance—into Citigroup, Jamie Dimon, someday to be the outspoken CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, had always been at his side. A bright and dutiful young man, Dimon stayed with him when Weill was consigned to a number two role at American Express after selling his firm, Shearson Loeb Rhoades, to the credit card giant in the early 1980s. He was with him in San Francisco, when Weill was charged with slimming down American Express’s subsidiary, Fireman’s Fund. Weill’s expertise was making companies lean and mean, which often entailed ruthless lay-offs. Dimon ran the numbers for Weill and participated in the implementation of the lean and mean philosophy.

When Weill finally left American Express, Dimon again went with him. Finally, they found the consumer finance company Commercial Credit Corp, which made high interest loans to low-income consumers, including early subprime mortgages, much like the old Money Store. According to biographers, Dimon liked the industry because it was unregulated. He and Weill took over the company, fired lots of people, issued a stock offering quickly, and used it to rebuild the Weill dynasty, which would soon include Smith Barney, Shearson again, and, the giant Travelers Insurance in 1993.

But Weill still had no serious investment banking presence, so he turned his attention to Salomon Brothers, king of risky bond and currency trading, the birthplace of what later became Long-Term Capital Management, and maker of much money and several major trading losses. How risky was this trading firm?

Dimon was skeptical. But here is the irony. Weill sent Dimon to study how Salomon made its money, and the originally hesitant Dimon said he now believed the risks could be controlled. Immediately after the acquisition in 1997, however, Weill was clobbered by Salomon losses due to the East Asian financial crisis and many more to come. Weill quickly limited trading exposure at Salomon. Dimon must have learned that losses are inherent in such businesses.

Dimon was finally at Weill’s side when Travelers merged with Citicorp to form Citigroup, becoming a massive financial giant. He left soon after in a personal dispute as Citigroup took on more and more risk, more and more debt, and adopted unethical practices that were later unearthed by Eliot Spitzer, which resulted in more fines than for any other company.

Dimon wound up running J.P. Morgan Chase, where he emerged as a hero after limiting mortgage market risks before the crisis that felled so many. He became the most respected of Wall Street’s leaders, and he was arguably the best of them. But Wall Street trading profits are too tempting, and individual Wall Street traders too hard to control. Even with tight oversight, they often go their own way. And they often lose hundreds of millions and sometimes billions of dollars in the process.

Dimon may have known precisely what his London trader, the “Whale,” was doing. I doubt it. But it’s likely the so-called “London Whale” had been making big bucks for the firm for a long while. Giving him more line would only be natural.  

Herb Allison, former president of Merrill Lynch, is a strong skeptic of commercial and investment banks’ trading operations. He even thinks over time they may all lose money. What happens is that they make plenty along the way, then lose it in a big bust.  As author Michael Lewis divulged, a Morgan Stanley trader, Howie Hubler, lost $9 billion in 2007 and 2008. Nevertheless, Hubler left Morgan with millions of dollars, and later returned to work on the Street.

Dimon, among the most cautious of executives, couldn’t control this trading animal with a life of its own, either. That’s the important conclusion. A Volcker rule to limit speculative trading for banks is necessary. They are using federally insured money to finance much of their banking operations, enabling them to leverage other facets of the company. They are using shareholder money, not their own, to take risks, yet they take enormous bonuses when all goes right. And they are implicitly using taxpayer money, because if they lose too much, they will be bailed out by the federal government. They remain too big to fail.

Serious capital requirements must be implemented against such trading, and banks must also change banker compensation procedures further. For traders, it’s a heads I win, tails you lose proposition. And so it is with the bank CEO as the firm’s overall earnings rise and are socked with a blow only every once in a while. These compensation plans have changed under pressure from the federal government to some degree. But probably not enough. The firms’ partners and employees have to be on the line for losses over time.

All this is a case study in why finance needs more government rules and regulations than most other industries. The omnipresent claim that such rules undermine liquidity in markets is almost laughable. In truth, we have a lot of liquidity when we don’t need it and little when we do—such as after the Lehman Brothers catastrophe in the fall of 2008. As regulations were eliminated and weakened after the 1970s, finance became more unstable, crises more frequent, and trillions of dollars were invested down the rat holes of speculation and fantasy, while Wall Street employees made countless millions. Yes, finance is important to economic growth, but only if government controls it properly. Otherwise it can be and has been damaging.       

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

 

Banner image courtesy of Shutterstock.com.

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