Robert Johnson

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Project on Global Finance

Recent Posts by Robert Johnson

  • Transatlantic Financial Wrangle

    Jun 10, 2009Robert Johnson

    conflict-200In the lastest issue of The International Economy, a leading German journalist surveys the tensions between the US and Europe on financial regulation and illuminates the role of financial elites in this dysfunctional dance.

    conflict-200In the lastest issue of The International Economy, a leading German journalist surveys the tensions between the US and Europe on financial regulation and illuminates the role of financial elites in this dysfunctional dance. The power punch comes in the following assessment:

    "The biggest irony of all, however, is that the deeply destructive policy to shift the burden of the financial crisis resolution from current creditors to future generations of taxpayers works. It works because the globalizing capital markets have created the conditions for socializing credit losses. Absent coordination -- and who would credibly represent a transnational taxpayer? -- governments that can afford to bail out bondholders and depositors will simply do so.

    Apart from a few small jurisdictions where matters are impossible to hide, they have nothing to fear from voters, who through a constant state of fear and panic are coerced to open their purses.

    And despite high expectations for the newly elected U.S. president, both sides of the Atlantic have one thing in

    common: The same people in key positions in the public and private sector who let financial institutions, their managements, and the markets destroy large parts of the wealth of nations are now acting as the powerful saviors of the financial system and the larger economy by doling out taxpayers billions in amounts nobody in his wildest dreams thought possible. And those so-called "wise men" who were working as advisors to the "Masters of the Universe" of global finance are now in the limelight on both sides of the Atlantic, telling the world how to get out of the worst financial crisis in generations."

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • The more things change, the more they stay the same

    Jun 9, 2009Robert Johnson

    If you don't believe it, check out Damian Paletta's piece in today's WSJ,  "Finance Reforms Pared Back." Paletta discusses how the Obama administration is getting cold feet on consolidating regulatory agencies.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

    If you don't believe it, check out Damian Paletta's piece in today's WSJ,  "Finance Reforms Pared Back." Paletta discusses how the Obama administration is getting cold feet on consolidating regulatory agencies.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Moody's Blues: David Einhorn thinks ratings agencies empower dangerous economic spiral

    Jun 3, 2009Robert Johnson

    kaleidescope-200Last year, David Einhorn made a splash at an investment conference for laying out the truth about Lehman.

    kaleidescope-200Last year, David Einhorn made a splash at an investment conference for laying out the truth about Lehman. This year, he bursts another credit bubble: the inflated value of ratings agencies.

    In his speech, Einhorn points out what is already familiar to some--the conflicts of interest in the ratings business, the highest seals of approval issued to companies that are now shells of their once-triple-A selves. But the problem with ratings, he says, is much bigger than all that.

    "[T]he unfixable issue is that the rating system is inherently pro-cyclical and economically destabilizing," said.  "When times are good,  rating upgrades reduce borrowing costs and contribute to credit bubbles. The more debt they rate, the more profit they earn."   In bad times, however, the agencies are reluctant to downgrade, knowing that such a step can kill a company.  With deference to their power "to decide whether a company lives or dies," Einhorn argued that ratings agencies "fail to use the downgrade as a warning signal to investors, and when they do finally act, it is often the coup de grace."

    It's all too little, too late, but he takes particular aim at Moody's, the ratings agency he calls a "classic oligopoly" whose services are sought not because Moody's is a trustworthy brand, but because consulting them first is, in some cases, legally required.

    The kicker?

    "Ironically for a firm that evaluates credit, its balance sheet is upside down, with a negative net worth of $900 million."

    Read the full speech here.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Risk Anesthetic: The Problem or the Solution?

    May 31, 2009Robert Johnson

    Ezra Klein has a piece in the Washington Post distilling the Gary Gorton paper that Chairman Bernanke is touting.

    Ezra Klein has a piece in the Washington Post distilling the Gary Gorton paper that Chairman Bernanke is touting. The world appears ever so tempted to blow air back into the leverage bubble to restore the broken shadow banking system. Some commenters think that the perception of risklessness was the problem and to apply more explicit anesthetic is both expensive and part of the problem rather than part of the solution. See also comments by Kevin Drum and Felix Salmon.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Too Close for Comfort? Ties between the banking industry and regulators

    May 26, 2009Robert Johnson

    money-question-200

    So Professor Stigler, is it fair to say "Regulatory C-A-P-T-U-R-E" ?

    money-question-200

    So Professor Stigler, is it fair to say "Regulatory C-A-P-T-U-R-E" ?

    Writing for Bloomberg, Matthew Leising discusses a plan by the U.S. Treasury to regulate over-the-counter derivatives in "Geithner Adopts Part of Goldman, JPMorgan Plan for Derivatives."

    "The U.S. Treasury's plan to regulate the over-the-counter derivatives market outlined by SecretaryTimothy Geithner on May 13 contains recommendations similar to those made by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays Plc three months earlier.

    The banks sent the Treasury a plan written in February titled "Outline of Potential OTC Derivatives Legislative Proposal," saying the Federal Reserve should extend capital and margin requirements to companies and hedge funds that trade in the $592 trillion unregulated market, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News and confirmed by the Treasury. Energy companies, corporations and hedge funds don't face such requirements now, while banks do under central bank oversight.

    "The banks appear to wish to maintain the intra-dealer market and raise barriers to new entrants to keep the OTC business as compartmentalized as possible and to protect their profitable market conditions," said Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. "The Street's lobbyists appear to be asking for a ‘club' structure in OTC trading."

    On May 13, U.S. officials called for increased oversight of over-the-counter derivatives to reduce risk to the financial system. Derivatives contributed to the failures last year of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc., leading to the seizure of credit markets and causing more than $1.4 trillion in writedowns and losses amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

    ‘Little Impact'

    The Treasury hears from many interested participants while crafting policy, said spokesman Andrew Williams. Derivatives are contracts whose values are tied to assets including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, or events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.

    "This proposal had little impact on our final result," he said. "Our proposal calls for dramatically increased transparency and the enhancement of regulatory powers to prevent market manipulation that go well beyond anything in that draft."

    Bruce Corwin, a spokesman for Zurich-based Credit Suisse, and Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally declined to comment on the bank draft. Representatives from JPMorgan, located in New York with Goldman Sachs, and London-based Barclays didn't immediately return calls and messages for comment left after normal business hours.

    ‘Robust Regime'

    Geithner sent a proposal to Congressional leaders on May 13 laying out his plan to police the unregulated market where swaps based on interest rates, currencies, commodities and a company's ability to repay debt are traded.

    "All OTC dealers and other firms who create large exposures to counterparties should be subject to a robust regime of prudential supervision and regulation," the proposal said. These included "conservative capital requirements," "reporting requirements," and "initial margin requirements."

    The bank-written plan, dated Feb. 13, said the systemic regulator "shall promulgate rules" requiring "capital adequacy," "regulatory and market transparency" and "counterparty collateral requirements."

    "Better the devil you know than the devil you don't," said Robert Webb, a finance professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, describing the bank's preference for their current regulator.

    Shifting Views

    The banks sought sole authority for the Fed over the market and limited the role of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to the document. The three agencies currently share information in the $28 trillion credit-default swap market.

    Geithner's proposal didn't specify what agency or combination of agencies should oversee the market.

    The Obama administration favors the Fed becoming the new systemic risk regulator to oversee financial companies that could pose a danger to the banking system, according to participants in a May 8 White House meeting.

    While the central bank has been favored to take the job since a proposal by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last year, lawmakers and some regulators have shifted away from that view. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair and SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro earlier this month recommended that a council of regulators assume the role. Geithner's plan goes further in many aspects than what the banks laid out in their draft.

    No Clearing Requirement

    The Treasury Secretary is proposing mandatory guaranteeing of private contracts with clearinghouses for standardized OTC contracts such as interest-rate swaps or indexes of credit- default swaps and increased electronic trading to improve price transparency for customers. He also wants required reporting of positions and trades.

    The bank proposal doesn't endorse clearing of OTC derivatives. In annotations to the draft it states "Note that the proposed outline does not propose any specific OTC derivatives clearing requirement." It also says reporting requirements on trade data should be made to regulators "upon request."

    Webb said any regulation over the market should be applied evenly. "It's not clear requiring everyone to have the same capital requirements is necessary," he said. He added that banks have worked closely with the Fed for many years.

    "You're going to see some close ties between the industry and the regulator," he said."

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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