Robert Johnson

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and Director of the Project on Global Finance

Recent Posts by Robert Johnson

  • Does Democracy Work? Are markets perfect? Apparently not in the USA.

    May 23, 2009Robert Johnson

    adam-lambert-200I have no explanation for why the finest young talent in American music, Adam Lambert, lost the American Idol competition. He is so far ahead of all the others that you have to wonder.

    adam-lambert-200I have no explanation for why the finest young talent in American music, Adam Lambert, lost the American Idol competition. He is so far ahead of all the others that you have to wonder.

    See how the rest of the world responded at the New Straits Times.

    The USA exports culture and financial services. Well, at least we used to export financial services.

    If you heard Adam sing...

    Mad World

    If I Can't Have You

    Whole Lotta Love

    A Change is Gonna Come

    Born to Be Wild

    Or perform with Kiss

    ...you cannot believe he did not win this competition. Hell, I think Robert Plant and Christina Aguilera would have a hard time beating this man. He is stunning. 21st Century Elvis. And the American people cannot even get it right.

    This is scary if you depend upon voters or preferences to determine outcomes in our society. Problem is, I do not know of a better system.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Power to the P-PIP(Le)? Manager warns that the public is getting hosed

    May 14, 2009Robert Johnson

    boy-with-water-hose-200Mark Patterson, chairman of MatlinPatterson Advisers, had this to say recently: “The taxpayers ought to know that we are in effect receiving a subsidy.

    boy-with-water-hose-200Mark Patterson, chairman of MatlinPatterson Advisers, had this to say recently: “The taxpayers ought to know that we are in effect receiving a subsidy. They put in 40pc of the money but get little of the equity upside,"

    Are fund managers who take subsidies from the taxpayers via the Treasury inoculating themselves with comments like this? Or is this warning a new form of public service?

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Ethics Test Graded 'F' by Financier

    May 12, 2009Robert Johnson

    stress-test-200John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds writes this week about the stress tests and the methods used by regulators that rely on banks' self-estimates of how they would weather another financial storm:

    stress-test-200John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds writes this week about the stress tests and the methods used by regulators that rely on banks' self-estimates of how they would weather another financial storm:

    "It is important to begin by noting that this was not a regulatory procedure with teeth. It was initially a response to Congressional demands to introduce greater objectivity into the use of public capital for these bailouts, and gradually morphed into nothing more than a 'confidence building' exercise. And keeping with the emphasis on keeping the numbers happy, as opposed to providing full and fair disclosure, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, 'The Federal Reserve significantly scaled back the size of the capital hole facing some of the nation's biggest banks shortly before concluding its stress tests, following two weeks of intense bargaining. In addition, according to bank and government officials, the Fed used a different measurement of bank-capital levels than analysts and investors had been expecting, resulting in much smaller capital deficits.'

    To some extent, it is not possible to get full and fair disclosure using the method that regulators used in the first place, since it relied on banks' self-estimates of their potential losses in a further economic downturn. These of course being the same banks that made the bad loans, and have already proved themselves vastly  incapable of loss estimation and risk management. Moreover, the Fed only asked for loss estimates for 2009 and 2010, not beyond - 'Each participating firm was instructed to project potential losses on its loan, investment, and trading securities portfolios, including off-balance sheet commitments and contingent liabilities and

    exposures over the two-year horizon beginning with year-end 2008 financial statement data.' This period specifically excludes the window where we can expect the majority of "second wave" mortgage losses to be taken, as it does not capture any losses that will emerge as a result of mortgage resets from mid-2010, through 2011, and into 2012."

    Read more on Hussman Fund's Weekly Market Comment.

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Taking Private Lessons

    May 11, 2009Robert Johnson

    wild-horses-200

    Who's gonna ride your wild horses

    Who's gonna drown in your blue sea

    Who's gonna taste your salt water kisses

    Who's gonna take the place of me

    Who's gonna ride your wild horses

    Who's gonna tame the heart of thee

    --U2 "Whose Gonna Ride Your Wild Horses"

    wild-horses-200

    Who's gonna ride your wild horses

    Who's gonna drown in your blue sea

    Who's gonna taste your salt water kisses

    Who's gonna take the place of me

    Who's gonna ride your wild horses

    Who's gonna tame the heart of thee

    --U2 "Whose Gonna Ride Your Wild Horses"

    On DealBook, Peter Rip, a general partner at Crosslink Capital in San Francisco, weighs in on how regulators and boards could take a page from the venture capital industry’s playbook.

    "Regulation alone is only a harness on a wild horse," writes Rip. "Like that wild horse, companies only achieve peak performance when external controls are combined with internal discipline and self-control."

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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  • Post Stress Test Traumatic Disorder

    May 8, 2009Robert Johnson

    tantrum-kid-200"I used to say: 'there is a God-shaped hole in me.' For a long time I stressed the absence, the hole. Now I find it is the shape which has become more important." --Salman Rushdie

    "Reality is the leading cause of stress amongst those in touch with it." --Lily Tomlin

    tantrum-kid-200"I used to say: 'there is a God-shaped hole in me.' For a long time I stressed the absence, the hole. Now I find it is the shape which has become more important." --Salman Rushdie

    "Reality is the leading cause of stress amongst those in touch with it." --Lily Tomlin

    "Sometimes when people are under stress, they hate to think, and it's the time when they most need to think." --Bill Clinton

    "The greatest weapon against stress is our ability to choose one thought over another." --William James "

    "This s**t is stressing me OUT." --Dave Chappelle

    The Administration ritual called the stress tests has passed and, with all of its unseemly twists and turns,  accomplished what the Treasury and bankers wanted. They bought time. The critics, like Bill Black, are certainly correct. Examination of financial institutions should be an ongoing and thorough part of the government's responsibility.   The results of latest stress test should be at the fingertips of the Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary at every moment (to the extent that one has any confidence in the false precision of valuations of complex toxic assets). This was ritual. A confidence game.  Salesmanship, not analysis.

    Forbearance may be the least worst alternative for the taxpayer, though I am inclined to doubt it.  Our financial officials have created the appearance of motion.   Yet, as some of the most market savvy minds are saying,  "Why did they not force these guys to raise capital NOW when market valuations are rising,  investors appear underweight, and some are short, the financial stocks.

    Mr Market, as Warren Buffett calls him,  is giving the authorities a window to raise capital on terms far more favorable than we saw in early March.   Yet bankers appear, understandably, to want to avoid dilution.  After all they are now being told that when they go down in the ditch they will get a constellation of support, guarantees, preferred stock at sub market prices, and the ability to continue to bargain for favorable terms.

    The dirty secret here may be that the bankers do not want to "keep these firms private."  Rather they want to keep lemon socialism (socialization of losses, privatization of gains) on the table as the modus operandi. They like their odds of using the government for their purposes.    No change in market structure, no change in incentives and the role of the government.  Even after the ugly unmasking associated with hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer subsidies.

    You think I am being "too dark"?  Maybe but listen to two who know: Rodgin Cohen, of Sullivan Cromwell and Goldman Sachs' outside council, the financial legal equivalent of Quentin Tarrantino's  "The Wolf" in Pulp Fiction, saying “The system will look more like what preceded the current environment than many people seem to believe.” Cohen said this yesterday at a panel discussion on the future of Wall Street sponsored by Bloomberg News in New York. "I am far from convinced there was something inherently wrong with the system," he added.

    Or Charles Munger, Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway is quoted in Bloomberg as follows "Charles Munger, whose company is the largest private shareholder in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., said banks will use their 'enormous political power' to prevent changes to the industry that would benefit society."

    "This is an enormously influential group of people, and 90 percent of that influence is being spent to gain powers and practices that the world would be better off without," Munger, 85, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. "It will be very hard to accomplish the kind of surgery that would be desirable for the wider civilization."

    For the taxpayer,  we may be heading from "Change We Can Believe in" to "Got any spare change?"

    Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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