Are "Educational Services" Off-Setting the Reduced Number of Public Education Workers?

Jan 15, 2013Mike Konczal

One important reason the recovery has been so weak has been the collapse in the number of government employees, a decline that continues years after the recession has technically "ended." An important check on the economy, unemployment would be significant lower if there weren't 651,000 fewer government jobs since January 2009.

Education jobs are a large part of this decline. State and local education job together declined 224,700 since January 2009. These losses are entirely at the local level, with state-level education workers going up slightly over the time period. This is consistent with declining spending on public primary and secondary education broadly in the states, and a large increase in the number of young people attending higher educaiton.

But what if these public sector jobs are being replaced with private sector ones? Several people on twitter have noted that the number of "educational service" jobs have gone up quite significantly in the past several years, gaining 244,500 jobs since January 2009. What if they are replacing K-12 education workers? That would be a much different picture of how the public sector is evolving in the past several years.

Luckily, the CES has the ability to break out different groups of educational services workers, so we can focus on primary and secondary education workers as well more post-secondary workers. Let's graph this out:

(The breakout is not seasonally adjusted, and education has large seasonal changes. As such, all these numbers are a 12-month moving average. The conclusions are robust to other specifications.)

As you can see, there's been a minimal increase in the number of private elementary and secondary school workers, on the order of an increase of 39,600, all relatively recent. The vast majority of the increase in education sector workers are working in postsecondary education. This is consistent with the large increase in post-secondary education we are seeing in this recession. The private sector isn't offsetting either the state and local level austerity imposed through the school system, nor is it, as far as I can see, offsetting the major disinvestments we are making in the education and opportunities of our young people.

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