How Stock Buybacks Strangle Innovation and Job Creation

Jun 30, 2011William Lazonick

jobless-man-150Conventional wisdom says that the job crisis stems from a mismatch in the labor market or lack of business confidence.

jobless-man-150Conventional wisdom says that the job crisis stems from a mismatch in the labor market or lack of business confidence. But in his special ND20 series, "Breaking Through the Jobless Recovery", economist William Lazonick points the finger at stock manipulation.

Where have all the good jobs gone? As I outlined last week, the disappearing act of decently-paid and stable "middle class" employment opportunities in the US economy over the last three decades is the result of the triple-whammy of plant closings ("rationalization"), the end of career employment with one company ("marketization), and offshoring ("globalization").

In a world of rapid technological change and global development, our economy, with its heritage of capabilities for knowledge creation by government, academia, and business, should have been able to replace these lost jobs with even better ones. Through a combination of business and government investment, a "knowledge economy" can generate plenty of opportunities for educated and experienced workers, and many US corporations have been and remain world leaders in innovation.

And yet the jobs aren't here. Because increasingly, over the past three decades, the executives who run major US business corporations have become far more concerned with allocating corporate resources to boost their companies' stock prices than to invest in innovation in the United States.

The main instrument for boosting stock prices is the stock buyback (or stock repurchase).  With the prior approval of the company board for a program of buybacks of, say, $10 billion, over, say, four years, executives can then do open market repurchases at their discretion.  Stock buybacks can be very useful for meeting the quarterly earnings-per-share targets so closely watched by Wall Street analysts. Buybacks can also help to offset a stock-price decline from bad news such as a failed product. Or they may be used to counter short sales by stock-market speculators, as was done by Wall Street banks just prior to the 2008 financial meltdown.

In other words, buybacks can be used to manipulate the stock market.

In the United States, stock buybacks are huge. From 2000 through 2009 S&P 500 companies -- which account for about 75 percent of the market capitalization of all US publicly-listed corporations -- spent more than $2.5 trillion on stock buybacks, equal to 58 percent of their net income. In addition, these companies distributed dividends equal to 41 percent of net income over the decade, bringing the total payout ratio (buybacks plus dividends) to 99 percent. The average buybacks per S&P 500 company more than quadrupled from less than $300 million in 2003 to over $1.2 billion in 2007, before falling to around $700 million in 2008 and $300 million in 2009. Average buybacks rebounded to $600 million in 2010, however. And they're on pace to total at least $700 million per company in 2011, or $350 billion for the S&P 500 as a whole.

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Executives like to say that buybacks are financial investments that signal confidence in the future of their company as measured by its stock-price performance. In fact, however, companies that do buybacks never sell the shares at higher prices to cash in on these investments. To do so would be to signal to the market that its stock price had peaked, something that no executive would ever do. But at the same time, these same executives use the stock boosts from buybacks to enrich themselves by exercising their very ample stock options and immediately selling the acquired stock to lock in the gains. And guess what? The gains from exercising stock options represent the most important component of outsized executive pay.

In short, as US business corporations have profited from the trends of rationalization, marketization, and globalization, top executives have used those profits to engage in a massive manipulation of their stock prices at the expense of job creation and innovation. From this perspective, the primary cause of the current jobless recovery is neither a mismatch in the labor market nor a lack of business confidence -- two conventional arguments for explaining the sluggishness of reemployment operating, respectively, on the supply-side and the demand-side of the labor market.

The "mismatch" argument is that the skills that workers possess do not match the skills that employers need. But this argument does not explain how, for the vast majority of workers, a "match" is made. The prime reason why the US economy gets a match between the capabilities of labor supplied and labor demanded is because business corporations invest in the capabilities of the types of workers whom they require. From this perspective, a so-called mismatch results from a failure of business corporations to make these investments in the training -- both formal and on-the-job -- of the US labor force. On top of that, as globalization continues, already-educated and trained US workers undergo permanent job loss in their areas of specialization. Valuable human capital quickly atrophies. The decline of middle-class jobs stems from the changed employment practices of US business corporations, exacerbated by their financialized behavior that leads them to favor buybacks over job creation.

It is this financialized corporate behavior, not a lack of business confidence, that stands in the way of a renewal of high-quality employment opportunities in the US economy.  Highly profitable US corporations are currently sitting on almost $1 trillion in cash, even after a sharp rebound in stock repurchases in 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. Rather than manifesting a lack of business confidence, these cash hoards reflect a desire by corporate executives to have funds available for stock repurchases in the years ahead as companies compete through an escalation of repurchases to boost their stock prices as was the case in 2003 to 2007.

The globalization of the labor force for educated and experienced workers is here to stay. But, for the sake of sustainable prosperity, the financialized business corporation has to go. In the absence of a change in corporate financial behavior, the future of the US economy is more booms, busts, and jobless recoveries, with each boom more speculative, each bust more devastating, and each recovery more jobless than the one before.

William Lazonick is director of the UMass Center for Industrial Competitiveness and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network. His book, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States (Upjohn Institute 2009) was awarded the 2010 Schumpeter Prize.

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What Conservatives Don't Want You to Know About Government's Role in the Economy

Jun 28, 2011Jon Rynn

fdr-we-need-you-200If we don't learn the lessons from the Great Depression, our infrastructure will crumble, the recovery will stagnate, and our economy will be left behind.

fdr-we-need-you-200If we don't learn the lessons from the Great Depression, our infrastructure will crumble, the recovery will stagnate, and our economy will be left behind.

The current conventional wisdom for many in the U.S. is that the less government is involved with the economy the better. But this is precisely the moment in history when more government is needed. Without government intervention, the recovery will continue to stagnate, the economy as a whole will remain off balance, and we won't be able to meet the challenges facing the country.

I have been proposing a different way of looking at an economy than the traditional, neoclassic one. In my view, each industry fits into a wider system, as say trees or deer or bears fit into a wider forest ecosystem. In the same way, goods manufacturing, machinery industries, service industries, infrastructure, and the myriad other parts of a functioning society -- including the health and education systems -- have to work properly in order for the economy as a whole to function, with manufacturing functioning as the central sector. All industries are co-evolving, dynamically growing, concentrated within discrete geographical regions. And it is the responsibility of government to help orchestrate this interaction, or else it can turn into an ugly riot.

But at the root of the neoclassical world view is the idea that the economic system is self-regulating, that is, if the economy is pushed off course by "external" forces, then it will become stable by itself -- without government interference. And yet we know that economies are constantly growing and changing -- that is, they are not stable -- and they are often under threat of recession and depression. That is why governments always have to be part of the solution. They are needed in order to support economic growth, maintain the right structure of the economy, and intervene when the economy goes bad.

FDR's presidency is the perfect example of this. When he became president, Herbert Hoover had just spent several years trying to reverse the Great Depression with market-based solutions, but FDR championed a set of governmental policies that turned the country around. To deal with unemployment, FDR established the Works Progress Administration, or WPA, which was not only designed to employ one fully able member of each household in which no one could find work, but also to build up the country's physical infrastructure. Building infrastructure is what governments do best. In fact, one could say that civilization started when the first governments constructed the irrigation and drainage systems that enabled agriculture to flourish. The United States, like every successful country, has a long and rich history of infrastructure building, without which the country would have very likely stayed poor. From canals like the Erie Canal before the Civil War, to the railroads after, from the dams that even conservative Republicans like Calvin Coolidge initiated, to the WPA that built libraries, schools, airports, roads, and other structures in virtually every town, to the Interstate Highway System championed by a Republican president, the United States has kept itself at the forefront of the global economy by making the building of transportation, energy, communications, water, education, and other systems the foundation of prosperity.

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Partly as a result of his interventions into the economy, FDR was able to lead the nation into World War II by fundamentally transforming the economy to produce military equipment. At its height, one third of the country's GDP was devoted to the war effort, with millions fighting overseas. That's five trillion dollars in today's economy. In other words, even assuming the continuation of a one trillion dollar military budget in the face of no wars of necessity, the economy has four trillion dollars left over to remake itself while providing for a comfortable standard of living for its inhabitants.

Instead of learning this lesson of history, however, our current political class seems determined to follow Herbert Hoover, not FDR. Meanwhile, the long-term domestic problems we face are worse than what FDR confronted. In the 1930s, the US was by far the leading manufacturing power and the top producer of oil; now the manufacturing sector is sinking fast, and not only do we import almost two-thirds of the crude oil we process, the global supply of oil is becoming harder to produce and is shrinking. In addition, we desperately need to eliminate the use of fossil fuels and transform agriculture and forest management in order to avoid the worst of global warming. The path forward is clear: we need an electric transportation system based on high-speed rail for long-distance travel, electric rail for freight, transit and small electric cars for intra-city movement, wind and solar power for electricity generation, recycling on a serious and massive scale, a densification of urban areas, and a more labor-intensive, localized, organic agricultural system. And these could provide the market for a revived manufacturing sector.

Only the government can build all of these systems in the time needed to both save the economy and save the environment. Incentives can go part of the way, but not fast or far enough. Taxing carbon or trading rights to carbon won't solve global warming or decrease the use of oil as quickly as we need them to; lowering taxes or reducing the deficit won't bring the manufacturing sector back. Government-as-builder does not mean government-as-warrior or government-as-Big-Brother. It is possible to have a strong government that is peaceful, democratic, and not beholden to our economic royalists, as we currently are. But maintaining democracy is never easy; the political system is no more a self-regulating system than is the economy. At least we can have a clear vision of where we are heading.

History doesn't care if the political conversation of the United States won't allow for talk about large-scale government intervention into the economy. The path to economic and ecological collapse is paved with "realistic" intentions. If the conservatives can be audacious enough to threaten policies that will further destroy the middle class and poor for the sake of the superwealthy, why can't progressives draw on a rich American history, from before FDR and after, to rebuild a once mighty nation and help the rest of the planet move toward a sustainable future?

Jon Rynn is the author of the book Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The power to rebuild the American middle class, available from Praeger Press. He holds a Ph.D. in political science and is a Visiting Scholar at the CUNY Institute for Urban Systems.

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Is Your Boss Really in Business to Create Jobs?

Jun 27, 2011Richard Kirsch

Richard Kirsch takes on the myth that what is good for the pocketbooks of major corporations is also good for jobs.

Richard Kirsch takes on the myth that what is good for the pocketbooks of major corporations is also good for jobs.

Spinmeisters for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Republican politicians like Speaker John Boehner like to call businesses "the job creators. " But what every American knows, if he or she thinks about it, is that unless you work for a small business, your boss will only create a new job if there isn't a cheaper option: force you to work longer hours, hire a temp, purchase new technology. Or if you work for a big company, get the work done overseas.

I was thinking about this after reading an article in The New York Times this past Sunday ("Companies Push for Tax Break on Foreign Cash"), which described how corporate America wants to be able to slash the taxes it pays on overseas profits that it returns to the United States from 35% to 5.25%. The corporations are selling this as job creation, saying that the billions of dollars they would bring back home will be invested in jobs. Who are they kidding? These are the same companies that are already sitting on nearly $2 trillion in cash, which they clearly are not investing in jobs in the United States. What will they do with the money if they get to bring it back on the cheap? Last time the corporations convinced (translation: "paid") Congress to give them a repatriation holiday, 92% of the cash was rewarded to shareholders in the forms of dividends and stock buybacks.

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Even if they did need money to create jobs, there's little chance corporate America would locate those jobs in the United States. Apple has $12 billion in profits waiting offshore to be repatriated, but it's clear that bringing that cash home won't mean more jobs for American workers. Apple's entire U.S. workforce of 25,000 is dwarfed by the 250,000 workers who make Apple products for the Chinese company FoxConn. Apple is far from alone.  From 2005 to 2009, IBM expanded its international workforce by 100,000 while cutting 29,000 U.S. Employees. All told, U.S. multinationals cut their U.S. workforces by 2.9 million during the 2000s while adding 2.4 million employees overseas.

Last February, President Obama embarrassed himself by going to the Chamber of Commerce and pleading with corporate executives to invest some of the $2 trillion in cash in the United States. The President appealed to the Chamber to respond to forecasts of "a healthy increase in demand" and invest in job creation. He even declared to the lobbying association that had led the fights to kill his signature achievements in office - health care and financial reform - "we're in this together."

No, Mr. President, we're not in this together with corporate America. Corporations are in it to maximize profits and boost CEO salaries, not help the U.S. economy or put people back to work.

With no "healthy increase in demand," on the horizon and unemployment heading back up, the President has talked more about government-led solutions that would actually create jobs in America. Near the end of his address on Afghanistan, and in a full-throated pitch at a Democratic fundraiser in New York City the next evening, Obama called for investments in education, infrastructure, and clean energy at home.

Democratic leaders in Congress have also started to sharpen their focus on the failure of corporations to create jobs at home. Nancy Pelosi's reaction to the Majority Leader Eric Cantor's walking away from budget talks was, ""Yes, we do want to remove tax subsidies for big oil, we want to remove tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas... "

The Republican leadership in Congress has taken investing in job creating programs and closing corporate tax loopholes off the table in the debt-ceiling negotiations. But if the President is to be reelected, he needs to make it very clear to the American people that he is doing everything he can to create good jobs at home. He should oppose budget-cuts in the debt-ceiling talks that kill jobs, including cuts in education and Medicaid. Moreover, he should insist that any debt-ceiling deal include closing corporate loopholes that encourage profits to be used overseas and invest those savings in measures to create U.S. jobs. And when Republicans charge that doing so would hurt the "job creators" he should ask Americans a simple question: "Is your boss in business to create jobs in the United States, or to make as much money as he can?

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, whose book on the campaign to win reform will be published in 2012. He was National Campaign Manager of Health Care for America Now during the legislative battle to pass reform.

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Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?

Jun 23, 2011William Lazonick

jobs-letters-150In a brand-new series, economist Bill Lazonick takes on the structural changes and reforms needed to create good jobs in the U.S. First question: what happened to the jobs we had??

jobs-letters-150In a brand-new series, economist Bill Lazonick takes on the structural changes and reforms needed to create good jobs in the U.S. First question: what happened to the jobs we had??

It's now two years since the official end of the Great Recession. Yet the US unemployment rate in May was 9.1 percent, and even college grads are having trouble finding jobs. The US economy is mired in its third, and worst, “jobless recovery” since the early 1990s.

Things look pretty bleak for the foreseeable future. So how did it come to this?

Let's take a look. The scarcity of good jobs, even in an economic recovery, reflects the cumulative impact of three structural changes in the employment practices of US industrial corporations, going back three decades to the early 1980s. These changes are the result of a triple-layered process of 1) rationalization, 2) marketization, and 3) globalization. Together, these trends have taken a permanent bite out of the quantity of well-paid and stable middle-class jobs in the US economy.

From the beginning of the 1980s, the trend of rationalization, which is characterized by plant closings, tended to jettison the jobs of unionized blue-collar workers. And from the beginning of the 1990s, marketization, which brought the end of the one-company-career norm, has placed the job security of middle-aged and older white-collar workers in jeopardy. Finally, from the 2000s, globalization, which drove the offshoring of jobs, left all types of members of the US labor force -- even those with advanced educational credentials and substantial work experience -- vulnerable to displacement.

In each case, the structural change in employment took root in a cyclical downturn: rationalization in the double-dip “blue-collar” recession of 1980-1982; marketization in the “white-collar” recession of 1900-1991; and globalization in the “Internet” recession of 2001. Looking back, we now know that the recoveries that followed the recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001 were “jobless” as marketization and globalization, along with ongoing rationalization, continued after the recoveries. Indeed, in terms of blue-collar employment, the recovery from the recessionary conditions of 1980-1982 was also jobless because of the continuation of plant closings in 1983 and beyond. In 1985, for example, the number of machine operators, inspectors, and assemblers in the US economy was down 22 percent from 1980. For the economy as a whole, however, these blue-collar job losses in the first half of the 1980s were offset by new employment opportunities for white-collar workers created by the microelectronics boom and the rise of what would come to be known as the New Economy.

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Initially, you could justify these structural changes in employment in terms of changes in industrial conditions related to technologies, markets, and competition. The plant closings that came with rationalization were a response to the superior productive capabilities of Japanese competitors in consumer durable and related capital goods industries that employed significant numbers of unionized blue-collar workers. The erosion of the one-company-career norm among white-collar workers that characterized marketization was a response to the dramatic technological shift from proprietary technology systems to open technology systems that was integral to the microelectronics revolution. The offshoring of the jobs of well-educated and highly experienced US members of the labor force that went along with globalization was a response to the emergence of large supplies of highly capable workers in nations such as China and India, many of them with graduate degrees and work experience in the United States.

But once these structural changes in employment had gained legitimacy as responses to new industrial conditions, US corporate executives often pursued them purely for financial gain. Some companies closed manufacturing plants, terminated experienced workers, and offshored production to low-wage areas of the world simply to increase profits, often at the expense of not only the jobs of long-time US employees who had helped to make a company successful but also, going forward, investment in the company’s long-term competitive capabilities. As these changes became embedded in the structure of US employment, business corporations declined to invest in new, higher value-added job creation on a scale that could at least offset the job losses.

At first sight, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 appears to be detached from these changes in employment practices, given its origin in the casino-like activities on financial firms in the subprime mortgage market. Yet the very existence of a large body of subprime borrowers derived in large part from the failure of US industrial corporations since the 1980s to invest in innovation and high-quality job creation while middle-class jobs were permanently lost through rationalization, marketization, and globalization. Through subprime lending, Wall Street sought to exploit the vulnerability of a working-class population to whom industrial corporations no longer delivered middle-class employment opportunities. And, as I will explain in a later post, the current dismal employment situation and outlook reflects the ongoing investment and employment practices of US industrial corporations that, over the past three decades, have become thoroughly financialized.

William Lazonick is director of the UMass Center for Industrial Competitiveness and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network. His book, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States (Upjohn Institute 2009) was awarded the 2010 Schumpeter Prize.

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Despite Self-Esteem Boost Now, Young People are in for Long-Term Pain from Debt

Jun 22, 2011Bryce Covert

No matter how good taking on debt may feel at a young age, today's grads are being set up for disaster.

This week's credit check: Those ages 18-27 report a self-esteem boost from student loan and credit card debt. But about 9% of people ages 55-64 are still paying back student loans.

No matter how good taking on debt may feel at a young age, today's grads are being set up for disaster.

This week's credit check: Those ages 18-27 report a self-esteem boost from student loan and credit card debt. But about 9% of people ages 55-64 are still paying back student loans.

A new study recently came out that says young people get a self esteem boost from taking on debt. For those ages 18-27, its findings show, more credit card and student loan debt lead to higher self-esteem levels and a feeling of control over life. This lines up with some common sense: student debt is considered to be "good" debt, an investment in the future. And as Annie Lowrey reports, there is ample evidence that credit cards give us all the joys of consuming without the pain of spending actual money. She quotes George Lowenstein of Carnegie Mellon explaining, "Credit cards effectively anesthetize the pain of paying. You swipe the card and it doesn't feel like you're giving anything up to make the purchase, unlike paying cash where you have to hand over bills."

But the other side of the coin, the study finds, is that the self-esteem high plummets later on when the students have to start paying that debt back -- and realize how long and hard it will be to do so. For those over 28, having higher levels of debt reduced that sense of self-esteem and mastery. "By age 28, they may be realizing that they overestimated how much money they were going to earn in their jobs. When they took out the loans, they may have thought they would pay off their debts easily, and it is turning out that it is not as easy as they had hoped," one of the study's authors opined. This is unsurprising: While student loans help finance a college degree, and that does have an effect on eventual pay, the burden of paying them back often hangs around late into life. About 9% of people ages 55-64 still have student loan debt. Part of that is due to the fact that unlike most other forms of personal debt, student loans can't be discharged in bankruptcy -- there's no way to get rid of them except payment.

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And those loans will linger even longer without savings -- even though young people think they are saving better than their parents. Almost half of respondents to a recent SavingsAccounts.com poll said they think as much. But as Jill Schlesinger points out, this isn't really true. "The Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal savings data indicates that the personal savings rate averaged only 3.48 percent of income over the previous 10 years, and doesn't come close to matching the 10-year average personal savings rate of 9.63 percent seen from 1971-1981." In fact, one in three adults under 33 have no savings at all. So on top of young grads being loaded to the hilt with debt burdens, they have very little stocked up to help pay it off.

They'll be even more hindered, in fact, by another aspect: they can expect lower wages than their parents. Overall, middle class wages have almost completely stagnated over the past few decades. As CNNMoney reports, "In 1988, the income of an average American taxpayer was $33,400, adjusted for inflation. Fast forward 20 years, and not much had changed: The average income was still just $33,000 in 2008, according to IRS data." On top of that trend, grads are entering an absolutely dismal job market, one that will likely have lasting effects on how much they'll earn over their lifetimes. The NYTimes writes, "The median starting salary for students graduating from four-year colleges in 2009 and 2010 was $27,000, down from $30,000 for those who entered the work force in 2006 to 2008... Among the members of the class of 2010, just 56 percent had held at least one job by this spring, when the survey was conducted. That compares with 90 percent of graduates from the classes of 2006 and 2007." And any reduction in pay now will have profound effects later. Charlie Eisenhood found that drops in initial wages due to high unemployment rates hang around: "even 15 years after college graduation, the wage loss is 2.5% and is still statistically significant," according to one study.

All in all, the short-term ego boost of student and credit card debt pales in comparison to what young people are up against in the long run. A college degree can lead to good jobs, higher pay, and of course education, but the amount of debt students are asked to take on is getting out of control. They should probably sober up for a rocky road ahead.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor of New Deal 2.0.

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FDR, Quantitative Easing Wonk, Used Every Tool in His Box to Jumpstart Recovery

Jun 22, 2011Mike Konczal

Rather than focusing on far off threats, FDR chose to combat high unemployment and sluggish growth with everything he had.

Rather than focusing on far off threats, FDR chose to combat high unemployment and sluggish growth with everything he had.

I’ve been reading this important David Beckworth post on the quantitative easing and monetary policy FDR implemented during the Great Depression. Beckworth argues that the first QE policy happened during this time and that it benefited from the fact that Roosevelt explicitly said he would do what it took to get to the pre-trend price-level target. Beckworth links to this Gauti Eggertsson paper that argues that when FDR took office, he signaled that they’d get the price-level back to pre-Depression trend by going off the gold standard, financing a Federal government through deficit spending, and explicitly stating target levels for prices, and this change in expectations from Hoover's administration did a lot of the work of recovery.

I wasn’t sure how serious to take this -- a president talking about price levels with the public? But sure enough, here’s the second Fireside Chat from May 7th 1933 (my bold):

Much has been said of late about Federal finances and inflation, the gold standard, etc. Let me make the facts very simple and my policy very clear. In the first place, Government credit and Government currency are really one and the same thing. Behind Government bonds there is only a promise to pay… [I]n the past the Government has agreed to redeem nearly thirty billions of its debts and its currency in gold, and private corporations in this country have agreed to redeem another sixty or seventy billions of securities and mortgages in gold… [They] knew full well that all of the gold in the United States amounted to only between three and four billions and that all of the gold in all of the world amounted to only about eleven billions.

If the holders of these promises to pay started in to demand gold the first comers would get gold for a few days and they would amount to about one-twenty-fifth of the holders of the securities and the currency… We have decided to treat all twenty-five in the same way in the interest of justice and the exercise of the constitutional powers of this Government. We have placed everyone on the same basis in order that the general good may be preserved.

The Administration has the definite objective of raising commodity prices to such an extent that those who have borrowed money will, on the average, be able to repay that money in the same kind of dollar which they borrowed. We do not seek to let them get such a cheap dollar that they will be able to pay back a great deal less than they borrowed. In other words, we seek to correct a wrong and not to create another wrong in the opposite direction. That is why powers are being given to the Administration to provide, if necessary, for an enlargement of credit, in order to correct the existing wrong. These powers will be used when, as, and if it may be necessary to accomplish the purpose.

I discussed most of the parts of that quote dealing with gold clauses here and here. FDR told rentiers who had put suicide-pact clauses in their contracts, which allowed them to collect more gold than existed in the world so as to allow private parties to profit while the country suffered and was in a deflationary spiral, that he was going to come at them like a spider monkey. Beyond establishing credibility and changing expectations, it makes me happy to see a president so actively go after broken, destructive contractual schemes that prevent the management of bad debts and threaten the general good. But there’s the bold quote, stating what the final goal of monetary policy was at the beginning of his administration.

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Economic and monetary policy commentators like Ryan Avent have noted that "the Fed chose a direction rather than a destination” when it comes to QE and monetary policy. If Avent wants to see a destination mentioned by a sitting president, he should check out FDR’s fourth fireside chat on October 22, 1933 (my bold):

Finally, I repeat what I have said on many occasions, that ever since last March the definite policy of the Government has been to restore commodity price levels. The object has been the attainment of such a level as will enable agriculture and industry once more to give work to the unemployed. It has been to make possible the payment of public and private debts more nearly at the price level at which they were incurred. It has been gradually to restore a balance in the price structure so that farmers may exchange their products for the products of industry on a fairer exchange basis. It has been and is also the purpose to prevent prices from rising beyond the point necessary to attain these ends. The permanent welfare and security of every class of our people ultimately depends on our attainment of these purposes…

Some people are putting the cart before the horse. They want a permanent revaluation of the dollar first. It is the Government’s policy to restore the price level first. I would not know, and no one else could tell, just what the permanent valuation of the dollar will be. To guess at a permanent gold valuation now would certainly require later changes caused by later facts.

When we have restored the price level, we shall seek to establish and maintain a dollar which will not change its purchasing and debt paying power during the succeeding generation. I said that in my message to the American delegation in London last July. And I say it now once more.

I have two takeaways:

1. Wouldn’t it be funny if in this fireside chat, years into a sub-trend growth and massive waste from high unemployment and unused capacity, Roosevelt said something like, “Someday, 25 years from now, Russia might be able to get a space dog into orbit before us. In order to Win the Future against this space dog, we should immediately forget everything going on right now in order to prepare for research competition with potential adversaries decades from now. We must immediately start planning for this battle right now, lest we lose the future, so let’s give a bunch of tax holidays and easily captured credit benefits to various rocket manufacturers and other incumbents.”? That would be crazy. But that's how the discussion is now framed by the current administration. Instead, FDR was really serious about using every pressure point and every lever to get monetary and fiscal policies going instead.

2. Obviously back then the Democratic coalition had a lot of farmers in it, people for whom “the price level” wasn’t a graph pulled from the St. Louis Fed to put on their blogs but a real thing that they dealt with daily. There is a chance that insomuch as hipsters are an influential Democratic coalition group, and hipsters begin to engage in urban farming, “the price level” might become more of a thing that Democrats are responsive to in order to meet the needs of urban hipster gardeners. Until then, it’s up to economic bloggers to carry this message.

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Globalization? Fuggedaboutit. Regionalization is the Key to a Prospering Planet.

Jun 20, 2011Jon Rynn

earth-150Jon Rynn continues his exploration of what a manufacturing-centered economy might look like, arguing that keeping production concentrated in smaller areas can bring wealth to all.

earth-150Jon Rynn continues his exploration of what a manufacturing-centered economy might look like, arguing that keeping production concentrated in smaller areas can bring wealth to all.

We often hear that a globalized economy is the best kind of economy. But could a world economy based on a set of strong regional systems, each one centered around a thriving manufacturing sector, serve us better in the long run? I argued in the first post of this series that economies are ecosystems, and that manufacturing is a necessary part of an economic ecosystem. In my second post, I proposed that manufacturing underlies economic growth, and machinery can allow us to have ecologically sustainable growth. Now I want to pursue how the innovation that underlies beneficial manufacturing growth is dependent on the close proximity of the various “niches” of the economic ecosystem, and what this means to our perception of how the global economy functions best.

Despite the rhetoric of globalization, the wealthiest economies have historically been regionally based. By “region," I mean a geographically contiguous area, separated from others by a barrier. The premiere example of this is the United States. Europe is another natural region, which has now integrated itself formally, although it was always integrated in fact. Japan, China, and India are also always considered separate economies. In fact, the regions that have the least cohesion are the poorest, such as Africa. While Africa is a natural economic region, it has been “integrated” into the world economy at great expense because its various pieces have become resource-generating appendages of wealthy, regional economies, instead of remaining parts of a manufacturing-centered, integrated African economy. The same could be said for the Middle East; Latin America is somewhere in between and is part of the global “lower middle class” as a result. The post-Soviet set of countries of central Eurasia are poorer than their oppressive predecessor partly because they are not as integrated as they used to be.

What are the advantages of operating in a contiguous geographic area? After all, according to neoclassical economic theory, an exchange is an exchange is an exchange, whether it is between a customer and a local store or WalMart and a supplier in China. The problem is that an economy is composed of both exchange and production; you have to have something produced before you can exchange it. And like an ecosystem, production relies on many sub-networks of production and exchange that require a physically close set of interactions, particularly when it comes to innovation.

Innovation can be seen as the product of three main sets of “human capital” -- scientists, engineers, and skilled production workers. Scientists create a “stock of knowledge," to use Simon Kuznets' phrase. This stock of knowledge is used by engineers, who design the machinery and processes that are used in the factories and construction sites and other sites of production. Skilled production workers then use these factories and other production centers to create the wealth that societies survive on.

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Just as it would make no sense in a natural ecosystem such as a forest to have the trees in one place, the deer that eat the leaves in another place, and the bears that eat the deer in yet a third place, so it makes no sense to have the scientists, engineers, and skilled production workers spread out all over the globe, with little or no interaction. It is one of the great ironies of modern economic life that the industry that is perhaps doing the most to disperse these groups, the financial industry, is so geographically concentrated that it can simply be referred to by a single street, “Wall Street." The financial industry concentrates itself for the same reason whole regions work best in a geographically bounded area: the main players can talk to each other, observe first-hand the processes that underlie their industry, and very quickly change practices as the larger environment, or ecosystem, puts pressure on the industry to change.

Engineering and research centers are now moving from the United States to China, just as factories have moved. These moves increase innovative capacity when researchers and engineers can interact with and witness first-hand the operation of machinery and factories, talk to other engineers and skilled production workers, and take advantage of the serendipity and unexpected encounters that also make cities the centers of innovation, as Jane Jacobs emphasized in her books. It isn't just within one industry that these interactions are beneficial, but also when several industries interact within a city region, as, say, publishing, fashion, and (now only some) manufacturing have in the history of New York City.

So couldn't each city region then replicate the entire set of industries? City regions aren't large enough to provide everything they need; trade is critical to production. In the US, for instance, different city regions have specialized in different industries. I mentioned New York City, but Cincinnati was known for machine tools, Pittsburgh for steel, of course Detroit for cars, and we have had Silicon Valley, an outgrowth of the San Francisco economy, as the premiere example of a center of innovation. The idea is to have a large enough area to encompass all of the various niches of an economic ecosystem, and also one that is small enough to encourage a rich network of interactions.

In order for this weaving together of city regions to occur, the government has to create a transportation network. The Interstate Highway System served this purpose after World War II, as the railroad system did before (and as I have argued, probably will again sometime in the future). A communications network is also necessary, again generally either run by governments or supported by them.

Governments have historically also protected their territories economically and militarily in order to allow these regional production networks to grow to the point where they can compete globally. When governments bind together areas in this way, the regional economy becomes strong enough that global trade is actually increased. You need a world class production system before you can trade manufactured products, and governments have historically been a crucial builder of those regional economies -- as I shall argue in my next post. On the other hand, when a country like the United States allows its manufacturing base to be exported, it will open up yawning trade deficits, and eventually, slide into poverty. The choice is ours.

Jon Rynn is the author of the book Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The power to rebuild the American middle class, available from Praeger Press. He holds a Ph.D. in political science and is a Visiting Scholar at the CUNY Institute for Urban Systems.

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Lynn Parramore on CBS MoneyWatch: Government has "Lost Sight" of Job Creation

Jun 20, 2011

You'd be hard pressed to find an American who doesn't know that we're in the midst of a great recession and an unemployment crisis. But if you only listen to what's going on in Capitol Hill, you might miss the memo. ND20 Editor Lynn Parramore joined CBS MoneyWatch to explain how we got where we are -- and what the government should be doing about it. "We have an immediate crisis, but it is not the long-term deficit, it is the fact that people are losing their jobs, they are losing their homes, they are underwater with their mortgages," Lynn says. "We do not hear enough discussion about that in Washington."

You'd be hard pressed to find an American who doesn't know that we're in the midst of a great recession and an unemployment crisis. But if you only listen to what's going on in Capitol Hill, you might miss the memo. ND20 Editor Lynn Parramore joined CBS MoneyWatch to explain how we got where we are -- and what the government should be doing about it. "We have an immediate crisis, but it is not the long-term deficit, it is the fact that people are losing their jobs, they are losing their homes, they are underwater with their mortgages," Lynn says. "We do not hear enough discussion about that in Washington."

Lynn points to the undoing of the FDR-era Glass-Steagall Act, which made it clear that commercial banks which take deposits "don't get to gamble with other people's money," as a major cause of the casino fever that took over Wall Street and led to the financial crash.

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And now government is focused on the deficit -- which is the wrong target. "If we really want to bring the deficit down, we have got to get Americans back to work," Lynn says. "I think we have lost sight of what government can actually do to get us out of a mess like this." How can the government pull it off? By implementing works projects that have the dual benefit of improving the country and creating jobs, like the Hoover Dam. "We can invest in things that will give us a long-term return," she reminds us.

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The Changing Class Divisions that Tear at Low Income Families

Jun 17, 2011June CarboneNaomi Cahn

family-150There is a new, successful family model that combines marriage and work -- but only for the middle class.

family-150There is a new, successful family model that combines marriage and work -- but only for the middle class.

A new study of newlyweds found that increases in workloads were associated with increases in marital satisfaction for both men and women.  The researchers expected this to change when the newlyweds became parents, and indeed it did -- for men. For women who became parents, however, increases in the amount of time and energy they devoted to work were associated with increases in their marital satisfaction. The authors speculated that, once they become parents, husbands and wives might respond differently to changes in each other's workloads; fathers might spend more time on childcare when their wives face high demands at work.

This is important information for those of us trying to balance work and family. On the other hand, increasing numbers of people in the United States are neither married nor employed. Family structure has become a marker of class, and studies can cloak profound differences among different types of families. Unpacking this research requires reconsideration of the relationship between work, marriage, and class. First, limiting the examination to married mothers skews the study from the outset. The most elite women, as measured by education, have become the most likely to marry, a reversal of historical trends.

Second, the most elite women have become the most likely to work. According to 2007 Census Bureau data, only about 26 percent of mothers with a college degree stay home with their children, while more than 40 percent of mothers lacking high school diplomas are full-time homemakers. College educated women are more successful in combining work and family than other groups in part because they tend to have the resources to pay for child care and other help, and because they are more likely to have flexible positions with more generous family leave policies.

Third, the best educated women have also become more likely to have partners who help with the children. Unsurprisingly, married fathers contribute more to child care than unmarried fathers, but even among the married, fathers who are college graduates contribute more than those without college degrees. Indeed, since the start of the Great Recession, the only group of women whose fertility rates have increased are those with graduate degrees, but only if the men in their lives assist.

For the college educated middle class, therefore, this study gets it right. It confirms the results of Penn State sociologist Paul Amato's in-depth comparison of the changes in family life between 1980 and 2000. Amato shows that over the last twenty years it is well educated, two-career families that have experienced the greatest gains in family stability. For two-career couples, women's workforce participation brings greater income and marital quality, along with greater pressure on men to help with the children.

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Amato found, however, that the same did not hold true for working class wives. The marital quality of  couples in financial distress dropped significantly during the same twenty year period. This was in large part because women in less satisfying jobs who preferred to be home with the children have increasingly found that they have to work because their husbands cannot support them. More recent studies confirm that unemployed men, in contrast with both unemployed women and men with stable jobs, are less likely to help with either the children or the house, increasing their partners' unhappiness.

The new study, by focusing on newlyweds, largely misses these effects. There is a new, successful family model that combines marriage, childbearing and workforce participation. It incorporates a more egalitarian division of work and family roles. It produces higher rates of income and marital satisfaction. It also, however, requires investment in men and women's education -- and it is increasingly beyond the reach of large portions of the public.

This study fails to show the class based increases in employment instability -- instability that in the long run discourages marriage and contributes to family instability. The fact that the middle class is successfully combining work and family roles says little about those for whom both work and marriage are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. While the Great Recession has at least temporarily decreased divorce rates, it has also lowered marriage rates. Any focus on newlyweds therefore is likely to include only those who can marry, and that overwhelmingly means the better educated with the best jobs. For the rest of the country, the prospects for marriage and jobs remain bleak -- so news about how to manage the tensions between work and family are not comforting.

June Carbone is the Edward A. Smith/Missouri Chair of Law, the Constitution and Society at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Naomi Cahn is the John Theodore Fey Research Professor of Law at George Washington University Law School. She is the author of numerous books and law review articles on gender and family law.

Cahn and Carbone are the co-authors of Red Families v. Blue Families.

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The Bronx's Slow Burn: NYC Budget Cuts Fall on the Most Vulnerable

Jun 17, 2011Bryce Covert

Cuts to human services are concentrated in an area with sky-high poverty and unemployment rates.

Cuts to human services are concentrated in an area with sky-high poverty and unemployment rates.

New York City is not unique in the fact that it's facing severe budget cuts. In the face of a debt overhang of $112 billion in states across the nation, cities are getting less and less financial support from their capitals. That means mayors have to consider slashing spending where they can. But many have protested Mayor Bloomberg's cuts in New York as falling on those who are already the most vulnerable. And with a new Google map of where the budget cuts will fall, it's clear to see that the Bronx is taking more than its share of pain.

The Bronx is already struggling economically. It has a sky-high poverty rate: 28.5% of its residents live below the poverty level, compared to 14.2% of residents in New York State overall. That's the highest rate for any urban area in the country. It also has the highest unemployment rate in the state, standing at 12.7%. An area like that could use programs that help put people to work, educate the youngest generation so they can get jobs and invest in youth unemployment programs, and take care of those who are struggling to survive.

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But that's not how budget cuts are going to play out. The area is slated to lose 20,166 youth employment slots, leaving those kids without a way to learn skills over the summer. Eleven childcare centers will shut their doors, denying parents the care their children need while they job hunt or try to maintain a job. The area will lose five senior centers, which will put into question the care they normally receive, potentially landing them back into the care of struggling families -- or out on the street. And 14 Out of School Time programs will be closed down, which give children a safe place to be after school while parents work or look for a job.

The elderly, the young, the struggling, and the unemployed will be hardest hit by these budget cuts, even though they had nothing to do with creating the mess. Looking at the map, the wealthy area of the Upper West Side of Manhattan appears to coast by almost completely unscathed. The Financial District, home to Wall Street and the source of our economic troubles, isn't slated to lose any programs. If budget cuts must be made, why should they fall on those who can least afford it?

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor at New Deal 2.0.

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