State Budget Cuts: The Undeclared War on the Middle Class

Nov 18, 2010June CarboneNaomi Cahn

women-and-moneyA double dip is coming, and it will be aimed at women and families.

women-and-moneyA double dip is coming, and it will be aimed at women and families.

The next round of the Great Recession -- the feared "double dip" in employment -- is coming. The Federal Reserve Board is so worried about it that it is encouraging inflation. What policy makers are not saying is that the next round will be the direct result of government policy and that this round will disproportionately target women, families and the most vulnerable.

The explanation is simple. In a recession, tax revenues fall, increasing deficits. State governments are required by law to balance their budgets, so they must either raise taxes or cut spending. Doing either in the middle of a recession makes it worse by increasing unemployment and reducing the money people have to spend, setting off another round of economic decline. Since the Great Depression, economists have emphasized the importance of efforts to counter this vicious cycle. Republicans, starting with Nixon, have argued that revenue sharing that sends federal money to the states is the most effective way to save jobs and avoid waste.

To encourage employment, we should be taking a critical look at shrinking state budgets and the impact it will have on women's lives. While the GOP controlled the legislative and executive branches in 9 states before the election, today they control 21; they've gained almost 700 seats in state legislatures. Obama's stimulus package was the only factor that prevented massive state layoffs and it's coming to an end. The Republicans have consistently opposed federal measures designed to prevent further state layoffs, even when those proposals are targeted specifically at education. Newly elected conservative governors will do away with the rest. This means there is not only less money for state governments, but more opportunities to implement an agenda that preserves tax cuts for the rich while shredding what remains of the social safety net that families rely on.

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Most states are facing severe financial shortages, particularly as the stimulus package runs out. A recent CNN article puts it, "The vast majority of that money went to help states maintain their Medicaid services and education funding in the face of steep drops in tax revenues due to the recession." Women are four times more likely to receive Medicaid than men are, so women are disproportionately more likely to feel the impact of lost stimulus money. Conservative legislators in several states are already exploring the possibility of opting out of the federal Medicaid program. And as they implement the new health care legislation, Republican governors will undoubtedly adopt policies that are more limited than what was initially intended. Budget cuts also allow states to implement political agendas that are hostile to women. States may choose, for example, to limit abortion and other family planning services at a time when women are reporting that they cannot afford more children.

The jobs at stake are those of the schoolteachers, police officers, social workers, and health care aides funded by state and local governments -- and they are jobs much more likely to be held by women. As Bryce Covert points out, "traditionally female-heavy industries such as nursing and education are now getting slashed in the wake of falling state revenues... budget cuts imperil 100,000 to 300,000 public school jobs. Hospitals have had to shut their doors in the face of mounting debt loads. Women are highly concentrated in these suffering industries." In a report released earlier this year on cuts in that bluest of blue states, Massachusetts, the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center found that decreased state support to adult education, employment training, and child care are more likely to affect women because they are the majority of those receiving such services. These programs tend to be at the top of Republican budget cut lists, even in good times.

So women of the country watch out. You and your families have a large bullseye painted on your backs. And Franklin Roosevelt also found that after the excitement of the early years of the New Deal, he lost support in Congress and felt forced to cut the budget and scale back reform efforts. The result was the second dip that worsened the Great Depression of the thirties.

June Carbone is the Edward A. Smith/Missouri Chair of Law, the Constitution and Society at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Naomi Cahn is the John Theodore Fey Research Professor of Law at George Washington University Law School. She is the author of numerous books and law review articles on gender and family law.

Cahn and Carbone are the co-authors of Red Families v. Blue Families.

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Listen to Keynes: Reform Can Only Follow Recovery

Nov 17, 2010Paul Davidson

keynes-150Obama should heed Keynes's warning to FDR: You can't get reform until you have recovery, which means, in a word, JOBS.

keynes-150Obama should heed Keynes's warning to FDR: You can't get reform until you have recovery, which means, in a word, JOBS.

After the "shellacking" the Democrats and Obama took in November's election, it is clear that the old time religion of classical economics will come back into fashion. The result is likely to be further economic disaster.

I am not surprised by the Obama administration's failure to win over the American people to a progressive economic program. On pages 13 to 18 of my book "The Keynes Solution: The Path to Global Economic Prosperity," I compared what I expected of Obama vis-à-vis what Roosevelt did in the first few years of his administration. I cited a letter written by Keynes and published in December 1933 in the New York Times in which Keynes warned the president that there were two goals -- recovery and overdue social reforms. But Keynes warned that if one goes for the social reforms before full economic recovery was achieved, then they "will upset the confidence of business... And it will confuse thought." Instead, Keynes recommended concentrating on policies for recovery. Once the president succeeds at achieving that goal, reforms will come much more easily. I suggested that if Obama followed the "jump start" advice of his economic advisors for a small stimulus program just to get the private economy turned around, then the nation would not get the full recovery we needed. All reform, as well as full recovery, would be jeopardized.

Given the current politics of austerity, we face maybe a decade more of economic disaster. Progressive economists must get out in front with Keynes-style economic thinking -- for Keynes' analytical framework is the only complete one that is not just a variant of classical theory. Keynes' theory of liquidity can deal with achieving full employment, correcting international trade imbalances, preventing inflation and deflation, and understanding of the role of financial markets in a money using entrepreneurial economy (in other words, an economy where entrepreneurs organize production and exchange transactions via monetary contracts for performance and payment in the future).

It is necessary to immediately put forth a consistent plan for not only the domestic economy, but also internationally in order to end huge trade imbalances. Mr. Geithner's call for devaluing the dollar relative to the Chinese yuan will not do it. Nor will relying on Old or New Keynesian variants of classical economics, such as Stiglitz's asymmetric information or some other MIT or Harvard New Keynesianism. All of these mislabeled "Keynesian" models assume that the economic system is classical except for some presumed ad hoc restraint on the flexibility of prices or on obtaining complete information about the future as determined by today's market fundamentals. In the long run, all these mainstream "Keynesian" models will create full employment when price and wage fixities are removed and full information about the future is provided. These theories state that it is only the ad hoc constraints that prevent short-run optimal results. Therefore, the implication is to get government out of the way and the market, in the long run, will prove to be optimal. Keynes's response to these classical theory's long run conclusions was, "In the long run we are all dead."

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My book provides a complete alternative to the various classical models that are going to dominate Washington in the next few years as Obama tries to compromise with the conservatives and Tea Party people.

The American people's votes in the midterms are being interpreted as saying no to more deficits -- but what they really want is prosperity and jobs for all who are willing to work. So we must show them why these goals require government deficits. We have to get the kind of progressive programs of the Roosevelt tradition into the public forum and create an economic foundation that provides a good future for years to come.

Until we can provide a single, consistent program for economic prosperity, all the other progressive goals will remain in the dustbin. The conservatives and their classical theories will dominate, even though they are wrong -- because, as they say in politics, "You cannot beat Somebody with Nobody." The only body of economic thinking available that can beat classical thinking is Keynes' original analytical foundation -- not Samuelson's Keynesianism or Stiglitz's New Keynesianism.

The original Keynes analysis stated that the economic future is always uncertain in the sense that it cannot be reliably predicted on the basis of current and past market data. Thus, consumers and entrepreneurs "know" that they do not know the future. All classical theories, on the other hand, presume the future can be reliably known by analyzing existing market data.

In Keynes' analysis, when people are optimistic about the future they believe they will always have enough contractual cash inflows to match their contractual cash outflows, so they are wiling to contract to buy more goods and services. The more people fear an uncertain future, on the other hand, the more liquidity they will demand, for liquidity means one has or can obtain enough cash to meet all known and possible future contractual cash outflow obligations. In other words, when people fear uncertainty they demand more liquidity, rather than goods and services. And given all the cash bankers and businesses are sitting on, no one can doubt that the problem is one of too much uncertainty and private demands for liquidity, with the resulting lack of aggregate demand for goods and services.

Paul Davidson is the Editor of the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and the author of The Keynes Solution: The Path to Global Economic Prosperity.

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The Right's Rotten History

Nov 16, 2010Harvey J. Kaye

smiling-fdr-profile-200Setting the record straight will protect FDR's greatest achievements.

smiling-fdr-profile-200Setting the record straight will protect FDR's greatest achievements.

Whether or not right-wingers such as Fox News "entertainer and enlightener" Glenn Beck, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, and Texas Governor Rick Perry actually uphold Ronald Reagan's conservatism, they are clearly sustaining his practice of using and abusing the past to reshape popular memory and the politics of the present. In particular, they're mimicking his efforts to hijack the Founding Fathers and Franklin Roosevelt. At the same time, Beck and Company have actually broken with Reagan's perverse "historical labors" in a very significant way.

In their respective books -- "Broke", "Saving Freedom", and "FED UP!" -- Beck, DeMint, and Perry, like their late Republican hero Reagan, celebrate the Founders as freedom-loving, God-fearing, small-government and States' Rights folk. They variably ignore or downplay not only their revolutionary sins such as slavery, but also their finest revolutionary commitments and accomplishments like the separation of church and state. However, in contrast to Reagan, who did his best (worst?) to try to lay claim to FDR to historically bolster his own political agenda, Beck and Co. portray FDR and the New Dealers as subversives who ruined American life and liberties.

Reagan, himself a former New Deal Democrat, knew how much most Americans loved FDR and continued to revere his name. So he regularly sought to appropriate Roosevelt's words in his campaigns, even as he set about trying to undo, and suppress the memory of, what FDR and his fellow citizens achieved in the 1930s and 1940s. Examples abound. Recall that to appeal to working and middle-class Americans, Reagan -- to the dismay of conservatives such as George Will -- enthusiastically cited and quoted both Thomas Paine and FDR in his acceptance speech at the 1980 Republican National Convention. And recall that in July 1987 Reagan audaciously re-stated FDR's Four Freedoms -- freedom of speech and expression, freedom of worship, freedom from want, freedom from fear -- as "the freedom to work", "the freedom to enjoy the fruits of one's labor", "the freedom to own and control one's property", and "the freedom to participate in a free market."

Breaking with the Gipper, Beck and his ilk not only have no desire to lay claim to FDR's memory and legacy, they also want to bury them. Truly, they talk as if they want to march on Washington and level the Roosevelt Memorial in favor of erecting a monument to the Gilded Age. Despite thirty years of conservative politics and policies -- three decades of intensifying insecurities, deepening inequalities, and subordinating the public good to corporate priorities and private greed -- they actually assert, as DeMint himself writes, that "America is clearly sliding towards socialism." And they hold Franklin Delano Roosevelt most responsible for the slide.

Following Amity Shlaes' crackpot history of the New Deal, "The Forgotten Man", Beck, DeMint, and Perry link the New Deal to fascism (Fascism? Socialism? What's the difference? It's all godless statism) and insist that it was World War II, not the New Deal, that rescued America from the Great Depression. Here they ignore how the New Deal, by way of the CCC, WPA, and PWA, dramatically transformed and improved the American landscape; how the New Deal energetically engaged a generation in rebuilding the nation and themselves; how the New Deal empowered working people and democratically expanded the "We" in "We the People"; and how the New Deal progressively nationalized the Bill of Rights. All of this afforded Americans the wherewithal, confidence, and courage to fight Nazism, fascism, and Japanese imperialism and extend and deepen freedom, equality, and democracy overseas and at home.

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In the name of the Four Freedoms, 16,000,000 Americans donned uniforms to fight fascism in the 1940s. But DeMint apparently wants us to forget that. You can hear it when he states unabashedly: "Socialists are now marching under the banner of a new secular-progressive style of freedom: the freedom from responsibility, the freedom to behave destructively without moral judgment, the freedom from risk and failure, the freedom from want, the freedom from religion, and the freedom to have material equality with those who work and accomplish more."

Moreover, Beck and his buddies have nothing to say about the G.I. Bill that helped turn the Greatest Generation into the American middle class of the 1950s and 1960s. Sounding like American Liberty Leaguers of the 1930s, Beck and Co. also go on to lambaste Social Security as both the source of Americans' loss of freedom and -- failing to mention things like the Reagan and Bush tax cuts -- the reason for the ballooning federal deficit. In that vein, Rick Perry not only exaggerates. He lies: "We are fed up that Social Security... teeter[s] on the verge of bankruptcy..."

And fancying himself a preacher -- a preacher of "frugality", I would note -- Beck charges FDR with not only leading us away from our founding principles, but also from God: "The United States was founded on Judeo-Christian principles, which embraced personal giving and charity as fundamental. And that was the way most Americans lived: charity through voluntary giving, in service of God. Then FDR and progressives came along and changed all of that. Charity still meant fulfilling your financial obligations to a higher power, but that higher power went from being God to being the United States government."

Sure, it's all laughable as "history." But we cannot leave it at that.

Reagan knew he could not denigrate Roosevelt because Americans not only revered him, but recognized how much they owed to the President and people who fought the Great Depression and struggled against fascism. But time is passing. The Greatest Generation is passing away. And the children of that generation -- myself included -- are turning 60. To defend the great democratic advances of the 1930s and 1940s and to build upon them, we must remember what they were and how they were secured, which means we must not only speak smartly of politics and policy, but also of the past.

Indeed, let us not forget Roosevelt's words at the dedication of the FDR Library at Hyde Park on June 30, 1941:

[A] Nation must believe in three things.
It must believe in the past.
It must believe in the future
It must, above all, believe in the capacity of its own people so to learn from the past that they can gain in judgment in creating their own future.

Harvey J. Kaye is the Ben & Joyce Rosenberg Professor of Social Change and Development at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay and the author of Thomas Paine and the Promise of America. He serves as an historical adviser to the Four Freedoms Park project.

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G20 Post-mortem: "Chimerica" has been a Chimera

Nov 15, 2010Marshall Auerback

marshall-auerback-100A disastrous trade war may be coming our way.

marshall-auerback-100A disastrous trade war may be coming our way.

There has been a considerable amount of discussion about current account imbalances in light of last weekend's failed G20 summit. For the most part, the meetings focused less on currency levels per se and more on the underlying trade imbalances. In particular, they discussed the threshold at which both surplus and deficit nations should work to mitigate the extremes implied by deficits/surpluses in excess of 4% of GDP.

Of course, one could argue that the focus on current account imbalances, rather than exchange rates per se, was simply a means by which the Americans could discuss China's pegged rate regime so that Beijing didn't appear to succumb to US pressure and "lose face". But fundamentally, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate has long constituted a huge source of financial instability in the global financial architecture. Although today's focus on China tends to highlight its huge and growing bilateral trade surpluses with the US (and to a lesser extent, the Euro bloc), less appreciated is the degree to which its exchange rate policies have historically impacted its Asian neighbors and continue to do so to this day. As recently as 1994, Beijing precipitously devalued the renminbi against the greenback, taking it from 5 to 8.4, a 60%+ devaluation. Even this action understates the magnitude of the change, since it was preceded by a period during which the country's monetary and financial authorities embraced a policy in which the yuan declined some 60 percent against the dollar.

So much for the need for policy incrementalism, as the Chinese persistently respond today when confronted with calls for a substantial yuan revaluation! In the late 1990s, Beijing's earlier policy of "beggar thy neighbor" might have engendered comparatively minimal disruption domestically, but it exported the economic dislocation to East Asia and Japan. The cost advantage of these devaluations, conferred on China's exporters, significantly eroded the trade competitiveness of other East Asian and Japanese exporters. They therefore threw their collective current accounts into substantial deficit by the mid-1990s and set the stage for the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Japan's "lost decade." (It also set the stage for Japan's implementation of a zero-interest-rate policy, which ultimately provided the foundation for the so-called "yen carry trade" -- another grave source of future financial instability.)

I have already argued that QE2 has minimal impact on the amount of new net dollars in existence. But the viscerally hostile Chinese response to the Fed's policy suggests that they see in it echoes of their own policy of the early 1990s (in spite of the fact that the US has a freely floating exchange rate, not a currency peg).

Most defenders of Beijing justify the pegged rate regime on the grounds that it has helped to move the country up the technological curve and thereby enhance living standards. Perhaps, but India has done it without adopting a similarly mercantilist policy. In any event, the improvements of living standards facilitated by rapid export growth and income gains in China are still heavily skewed toward the exterior regions, rather than the interior of the country.

There could have been better ways for China to improve the living standards of its people. It is perfectly understandable why Beijing adopted the Asian mercantilist model, as it worked so well for the nations of Northeast and Southeast Asia. But it makes no sense for a country of 1.5 billion people with a huge domestic market that its manufacturers could potentially supply for decades. India also seems to have improved the living standards of its people, but it has adopted a much more balanced economic model (and correspondingly less trade friction with the US and EU).

Although Beijing no longer explicitly pegs its currency against the greenback, it does so against a basket of currencies of which the dollar is still the largest component. It therefore remains a pegged rate regime in all but name. This type of currency regime is generally not the best institutional structure for an economy because it entails a surrender of monetary/fiscal sovereignty and builds in an inherent financial fragility. In China's case, the fragility has been somewhat masked by the fact that it continues to run trade surpluses but, as noted above, it has effectively "exported" the financial destabilization associated with currency pegs to its trading partners.

So what is the problem with a currency peg? A nation with a currency peg can run external deficits (on the current account) for a time, as long as there are sufficient foreign reserves so that the central bank does not need to contract the monetary base (its liabilities). In particular, if investment is targeted at productive ventures that build extra export capacity and if the nation has enough foreign reserves, then a current account deficit for a time can be beneficial in the longer term.

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But persistent current account deficits become particularly problematic for a nation running a currency board. The nation faces the continual drain of its foreign reserves, which has two impacts. First, the peg comes under pressure. Second, the central bank has to contract the monetary base, which has a negative impact on aggregate demand. A sharp deterioration in the current account can quickly create a crisis because the economy has engineered a sharp domestic contraction (normally, by sharply raising interest rates) to reduce imports, but also risks running out of reserves and occasionally has to default on foreign currency debt (either public or private).

While the higher rates may attract foreign capital inflow, they are also deflationary. Proponents of this arrangement argue that deflation starts a process of internal devaluation (wages and prices fall) and increases the competitiveness of the export sector. But it is clear that currency peg arrangements, which eliminate the capacity of the central bank to run discretionary monetary policy, lead to pro-cyclical policy outcomes. So in boom times, with exports strong, the monetary base expands and interest rates fall. Monetary policy reinforces the demand boom.

But if exports fall and thus aggregate demand weakens and/or foreign capital outflow occurs, then the monetary base contracts and interest rates rise, causing a further contraction. Moreover, when times are bad, the treasury may not be able to fund its current budget position (if in deficit). So fiscal policy has to contract, which worsens the situation.

Clearly this is not a problem for Beijing today, as it runs a huge current account surplus. But if it were to revalue its currency and retain the peg (rather than let it float), a future major collapse in export growth would be highly problematic because it would engender a loss of capacity to build foreign currency reserves and support local demand.

Needless to say, China's peg has NOT been particularly helpful to the US as a whole, either. In general the dollar-yuan peg has helped to perpetuate a weirdly destructive symbiotic relationship between China's military, which seems to be making lots of money from the speculative enterprises that persistently pop up in the US, and Wall Street, which has become a major beneficiary as the agent that recycles these capital flows back to the US. In the meantime, the peg displaces US workers via low-cost Chinese labor facilitated by technological advances, which drives further outsourcing by US corporations. To offset the impact, the US government has consciously built up its "FIRE" (finance, insurance and real estate) sector, which has "leveraged" the rest of the economy as its employment and profits grew at a faster pace (it received 40% of the nation's profits before the bust). Leaving aside the issue of "productive" versus "unproductive" labor, it certainly appears in retrospect that the FIRE sector has played an outsized role in the US economy, in effect offsetting the loss of manufacturing capacity. The "market" is now trying to downsize the FIRE sector, but current policy seems designed to resist that. All efforts are aimed at keeping leverage high as the Fed and Treasury try to get banks to lend again -- as if another private debt bubble is the cure for what ails the economy.

That all might begin to change. After observing the latest G20 fiasco, it is conceivable that American government will feel that it has no choice but to move toward tariffs, especially as fiscal policy is likely to remain constrained by a hostile GOP-dominated Congress. The numerical targets on current account imbalances were the last warning shot to forestall the protectionist option. This has now failed.

Domestic US political considerations for the President and his party might well mandate a more radical tack. Consider the recent midterm election results. The Democrats sustained huge losses in the rust belt. These states have been traditionally Democratic. True, some went for Reagan in the 1980s, but Obama got them back in 2008 and thereby won the election. He needs this region. He can forget about the South: there, we have all kinds of constituencies that voted against him. He'll never win over the Christian right, the plutocrats who narrowly vote their pocketbooks, and so forth. Obama needs to win back members of his disaffected base, especially younger voters who didn't show up because they face a hopeless employment situation. But he won't get this group back to the polls unless he focuses on jobs. The independents will also be hard to get back without this, because they too are disgusted by the government's cronyism. But even if the President wins back a large number of disaffected independents and the youth vote, he still needs the rust belt. He therefore has to attack China, the outsourcing of jobs, and focus on Beijing's currency (which he has recently called "undervalued", potentially setting the stage to name China as a "currency manipulator" with the World Trade Organization). If Obama doesn't do this, the Democrats should just wave a white flag in the next election and not waste money campaigning. This is the US political reality as long as the unemployment rate is above seven percent and Corporate America is nuts about cutting costs by moving to low wage platforms abroad. A trade war, complete with tariffs, could well prove inevitable.

Marshall Auerback is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator.

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Are Government Employees Overpaid? The Answer is Still No.

Nov 15, 2010Mike Konczal

mike-konczal-2-100Further cutting their salaries will only mean a weaker government.

mike-konczal-2-100Further cutting their salaries will only mean a weaker government.

The Bowles-Simpson chairman's mark strongly implies that government employees are overpaid (see here). But the evidence from any number of sources is that this is completely false, even when you include benefits and control for everything imaginable. Reihan Salam brought up an corollary argument, Andrew Bigg's argument that you have to include unfunded benefit liabilities in these comparisons. This was taken apart months ago by the National Institute on Retirement, so let's review that.

To get there, I'm going to first run through EPI's Debunking the Myth of the Overcompensated Public Employee (pdf), a pretty fantastic paper.  Lots of people have also done this research at the state level: Jeffrey Thompson and John Schmitt of CEPR for New EnglandCalifornia from the Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics at the University of California-Berkeley, etc.

We can break the entire argument about government employee compensation into three steps.

First step: education level

The first is an apples-to-apples comparison of workers among education levels. The government's workforce is more educated than the private workforce. For instance, the government's "college plus" level is 54%, while all private workforce is 35%, for instance. "Some college" is 14% of government workers, 19% of the private workforce. Here is the penalty government workers take when you include all benefits across both categories:

On average, government workers make 3% less total compensation when you control for education levels. As someone who once considered doing regulatory work with his professional Master's degree work, I completely agree that there's a 30%+ pay gap between the private and public sector. Tom Ferguson and Rob Johnson had a good paper at INET comparing the evolution of regulatory salaries and industry salaries -- the results were in line with the real incentive for regulators to be joining the industries they regulated.

Some groups make more in government.  This appears to be more the result of the declining wages and benefits over the past 30 years for non-college educated workers in this country than runaway government compensation. The paper notes: "The public sector appears to set a floor on compensation particularly improving the compensation of workers with high school educations, when compared to similarly educated workers in the private sector. This result is due in part because the earnings floor has collapsed in the private sector," citing Lee 1999. But on average, there's a compensation penalty for working for the government.

Second step: gender and race

On the first approximation, government workers are underpaid. So are we done? No. There are two more steps. Beyond education, there are other things we need to control for. State and government workers are "slightly less experienced (21 years compared to 23 years); are more likely to be female (57% to 43%); work fewer hours (42.6 to 43.3); are more likely to be black (14% to 12%); are less likely to be Asian (3% to 6%); and are less likely to be Hispanic (10% to 13%). [p. 9]"

We need to control for all of these factors, as they impact the comparison of wages. Government workers leave 6 minutes earlier each day, women make 80 cents on the dollar as the result of systemic gender discrimination men make $1.25 on the dollar because they are compensated for their evolution-derived risk-taking, aggression and promiscuity, older workers make more than younger workers, etc.

So the paper controls for all that (they put some time into this), and this is what they find:

Once again, controlling for everything imaginable, government workers make less in total compensation than regular workers.  The result is less pronounced at the local level (1.8% less rather than 7.5% at the state level), though still significant.

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Third step: cost of benefits

Now there is a third critique, led by Andrew Bigg of AEI, which says these two steps don't get the entire costs of providing benefits because "most state and local employees also become eligible for defined-benefit pensions and health benefits in retirement. But state and local governments haven’t come close to fully funding these obligations. That means that the amount government employers spend today may be well less than what employees will actually receive when they retire." He believes this is not the case for private employers, hence government workers are likely overpaid.

Let's hand the microphone to the National Institute on Retirement, which is specifically addressing Bigg's claims (my bold):

Some have argued that because many public pension plans around the country are not fully funded, the entire cost of defined benefit (DB) pension benefits is not recognized in the data we used in our study, which comes from the National Compensation Survey (NCS).  While the NCS, like any survey, does have some limitations, it remains the definitive source researchers use for assessing the cost to employers of non-wage benefits...

In other words, if an employer fails to fully pay for the benefits accrued in any given year, then it is possible that the cost of the pension benefit -- and therefore, the full cost of employee compensation -- may be slightly understated in the data.  The corollary to this is that if an employer’s contributions to a pension plan exceed the cost of benefits accrued in that year, the NCS will overstate the cost.  Because employer contributions can vary with the funded status of the plan, which in turn, is driven by macro-economic factors like the performance of stock and bond markets, there may be a cyclical bias in the data.  Over time, though, these over- or under-estimates should average out, which is why we used an average (from 2004 to 2008) of benefit costs, rather than a point estimate in our analysis.  Moreover, it is important to note that any bias (positive or negative) would apply equally to public or private sector employers.

So, claims that our analysis systematically understates costs for public employers are invalid on this basis.

Similarly, claims that our study should have added the value of the entire unfunded liability (of state and local government DB plans) onto a single year’s compensation costs are completely off base. Any analysis that does so will reach conclusions that are equally inappropriate and flawed.

First, an unfunded liability represents all accrued benefits, from all years past, that are not currently funded.  Yet the point of the analysis is to compare the cost of annual compensation.  Therefore, it is inappropriate to include the entire unfunded liability from all prior years into the calculation of the cost of benefits in a single year.

Second, even if one felt that incorporating the cost of unfunded liabilities served a purpose (notwithstanding that this is not how economists define current compensation), one would have to apply the same standard to the private sector side of the analysis, too. Currently, many private sector DB plans have unfunded liabilities -- a result of the recent stock market downturn that affected investors of all stripes. If the idea is to compare public and private pension costs in a fair, “apples to apples” manner, then the unfunded liabilities of private sector pensions should be calculated as well.

Third, adding the expected annual cost of paying off unfunded liabilities (even under the worst-case scenario) would not change the result.

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College recently calculated that it will cost states on average just 2.2% of payrolls to pay off their entire unfunded liability over 30 years. In the Out of Balance report, we found that total compensation is 6.8% lower for state government employees and 7.4% lower for local government employees than for comparable private sector workers. So, even if we were to add 2.2% of payroll to state and local employee compensation -- which would pay off the entire unfunded liability -- state and local workers would still be paid 4.6% and 5.2% less, respectively, than their private sector counterparts.

In conclusion, the results of the Out of Balance study stand up to scrutiny. Even acknowledging the additional contributions that will be required to restore pensions to full funding does not alter the ultimate findings of the study. State and local employees still receive significantly less total compensation than their counterparts in the private sector.

Posted on July 19, 2010 by: Keith A. Bender, Associate Professor and John S. Heywood, Distinguished Professor; Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

The idea that private market pensions are in tip-top shape doesn't strike me as accurate, and piling on the entire unfunded liability into a single year is, of course, going to distort the scales and not focus on the specific hypothesis testing that is being carried out. And yes, even if we were expecting to pay off the entire unfunded liability, we are talking about 2.2% of payroll, still less than what NIR, EPI and others found as the pay gap.

Again, there's simply little fat to cut here. Government workers are less compensated than private workers -- more cuts will simply mean a weaker workforce with less human capital, which will lead to weaker government services.  Which will discredit the idea of government, which I guess for some people is the point.

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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The Lame Duck Session: High Risk, Low Gain

Nov 15, 2010Bo Cutter

Shaping the future with today’s choices.

Most lame duck sessions have results ranging from disappointing to really disappointing to genuinely awful. This one -- which starts tonight -- could set records. It is hard to see how it doesn't instantly become pure political theatre. In this context, President Obama has to be very careful or he will simply be seen as an ineffective player in the food fight.

Shaping the future with today’s choices.

Most lame duck sessions have results ranging from disappointing to really disappointing to genuinely awful. This one -- which starts tonight -- could set records. It is hard to see how it doesn't instantly become pure political theatre. In this context, President Obama has to be very careful or he will simply be seen as an ineffective player in the food fight.

From this perspective, I found E.J. Dionne's Washington Post column today to be from a different universe. Mr. Dionne suggests that Democrats, and I guess therefore the President, pick five issues to fight about: the DISCLOSE Act (campaign contribution disclosures), Don't ask, don't tell, the DREAM Act (immigration), extending unemployment insurance, and the Bush tax cut extensions. Mr. Dionne is not alone here; others are giving similar advice. And it is excellent advice if your aim is yet another rout. But it is terrible advice if you want President Obama to begin his way back.

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Just to be clear, I am for all five of these measures. But I do not have a magic wand that will get them passed; more importantly, neither does President Obama. Right now, in my opinion, the American people are not listening to the President. They will completely tune him out if he says he is for five big measures and then opens himself up for all of the public bargaining they would entail.

The President should state he is for one, at most two, actions: a two-year extension of the Bush tax cuts for all families earning under $500,000 annually and the extension of unemployment insurance. He should also clearly state that he will veto tax extension legislation that goes beyond $500,000 and does not establish some kind of time limit. (I do not think his own Democrats will support a lower ceiling.) And he should, in fact, veto any such legislation, and be prepared to veto more if the lame duck session turns ugly.

His stated immediate aim should be one or two crisp actions, and then he should get the Congress out of town. His longer-term objective should be to establish clearer focus on a very few areas through his actions, not just his words.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team.

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Banks Get Bailouts, We Get Shared Sacrifice

Nov 13, 2010Marshall Auerback

marshall-auerback-100If the government follows the deficit commission's early report, we really will saddle our grandchildren with burdens.

marshall-auerback-100If the government follows the deficit commission's early report, we really will saddle our grandchildren with burdens.

It all started so innocently: deficit hawks wanted to restore their credibility in the face of the global financial crisis and the comprehensive discrediting of their ideology. They slowly emerged from their caves, trying to re-engage in the policy debate by appearing reasonable. They started saying that "now we should have deficits," but soon (unspecified) "we will need surpluses" to "pay back the excesses."

As time progressed, however, the comeback attempts became outrageous and outright distortion entered the picture. Figures such as Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan (along with a whole host of Wall Street economists, whose employers had been large, albeit misdirected, beneficiaries of government largess) began to launch revisionist efforts to deny that fiscal policy had any positive impacts. Some went as far as asserting that government intervention actually worsened the recession by virtue of creating great "uncertainty", which allegedly held back business investment.

This latter development has now gathered pace and found its fullest expression through the US National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (an Orwellian title if ever there was one) established by President Obama. The Commission has proposed a $3.8 trillion deficit cutting plan that would trim Social Security and Medicare, reduce income-tax rates and eliminate tax breaks, including the mortgage-interest deduction. Yes, there are token cuts in Defense spending in the interests of "fairness", but the cuts are heavily skewed toward middle class entitlements. (Which is a deceiving word because it implies that we're just a bunch of weak supplicants, dependent on the graces of the government. Why don't we call these programs "enablements"?) The priorities laid out by the Commission are truly symptomatic of the degeneracy of our governing class compared to the days of the Great Depression. Grand projects started then are still delivering value to communities and private business interests some 80 years after their completion.

The financial crisis delivered significant empirical blows to mainstream economics, which has consistently downplayed the effects of fiscal policy. Along with the usual ideological hatred of government spending (except, of course, when it favored their particular industries), most of the supporters of this commission continue to trot out the usual fantasies of excessive government spending "crowding out" the private sector. They also cited the perverse idea of "Ricardian equivalence", which says the reason that the private sector is not spending is because it expects higher taxes in the future due to budget deficits, which will have to be paid back sometime -- so they are saving up to pay those bills. And anybody who has the nerve to challenge their ludicrous assumptions is castigated as being "stridently opposed" to any reforms at all.

Yes, some of us remain strident in our opposition to stupid, irrational policy that invokes financial, rather than real, resource constraints. What we need is a policy that puts unemployed people to work to produce output needed by seniors. Providing adequate Social Security benefits to retirees will generate effective demand, which will put labor to work. Just as the rapid growth of effective demand during the Clinton boom allowed sustained growth in the employment rate, even as productivity growth rose nearer to United States long-term historical averages, tomorrow's retirees can provide the necessary demand to allow the United States to operate near full employment. This is a "virtuous combination" of the high productivity growth model followed by Europe and Japan from 1970-95 and the high employment model followed by the United States during the 1960s, as well as during the Clinton boom.

Instead, we now have a commission where people are invoking a bogus "national solvency" argument to justify cuts in Social Security. They fail to understand that resource availability in the future will be enhanced by the fiscal outlays that are done now. Mainstream remedies to perceived budget blow-outs typically manifest as cuts to education, for example. Nothing could be more counterproductive to growth.

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As far as the national debt itself goes, those who want to paint the scariest picture possible use the larger gross debt to GDP ratio, which is around 90% of GDP. But that is highly misleading, because it includes the debt held in federal government accounts -- in other words, debt the government owes itself. This includes securities held in civil service and military retirement funds, Social Security, and Medicare, as well as unemployment and highway trust funds.

And Social Security has run large budget surpluses since the early 1980s. It has used those surpluses to accumulate treasury debt. In the future, the program will sell the bonds back to the treasury when Social Security revenues are less than its benefit payments. To all intents and purposes, Social Security's treasury holdings really amount to internal record keeping -- a sort of reminder that someday the treasury will have to cover Social Security's shortfall. The relevant debt figure is the treasuries held by the public.

The rationale for creating this actuarial accounting fiction can be questioned, but it helped establish the program's political legitimacy in its early days, by creating the illusion that Social Security was a "pay as you go" system, in which you take out what you pay in. In fact, it bears no reality to a private sector social insurance scheme. Those who argue, for example, that the debt owned by Social Security should be counted as part of our overall debt levels do so because it reflects a future obligation of government to future beneficiaries. However, as Randy Wray and Yeva Nersisyan have pointed out, the government has that obligation whether or not Social Security owns treasuries, and it will meet its obligations in exactly the same manner whether or not it holds treasuries, by electronically crediting bank accounts. That assertion might seem controversial to many (including the members of the Presidential commission on the deficit), but no less than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve himself has conceded the point. Ben Bernanke has long claimed that there are no technical limits to government spending (or, more specifically, to financing the fiscal components of monetary policy). In a now famous 2002 speech before the National Economists Club, he argued that the central bank can always finance government spending at no cost, under modern monetary arrangements:

Under a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero. . . . The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent) that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

Bernanke recognizes that the Fed finances government spending by electronically injecting reserves into the system and that there is no limit to its ability to do so. The Commission, however, persists in perpetuating the idea that the American government has run out of money. Meanwhile, American families have spent the past several years facing tough choices in their own lives because the market system failed. This was all due to lax government regulation and dishonest, irresponsible, and indeed fraudulent behavior on the part of the private sector, notably the financial sector, which stands to benefit from any attempt to privatize Social Security.

The deteriorating position of most American families has been exacerbated by the failure of fiscal policy to ensure there was enough spending to support their jobs and, hence, generate increased revenues (which would REDUCE the budget deficit). There are no consequences for the people who helped drive us into the ditch that the President loves to talk about. In fact, to extend the President's metaphor, the very car that veered off into the ditch has run over the people trying to climb out of it. Those victims, in turn, are being blamed for having dug the ditch in the first place. To repeat: the private sector should never spend more than they can afford. That means they should only run sustainable debt burdens and probably not be in debt overall as a sector. But the US government has the unique ability to support spending and employment while the private sector restructures its balance sheet. Policies that maintain high employment and minimize unemployment (both officially measured unemployment, as well as those counted as out of the labor force) are critical to maintain a higher worker-to-retiree ratio. Policy can also encourage today and tomorrow's seniors to continue to participate in the labor force. The private sector will play a role in all of this, but there is also an important role to be played by government.

Even on today's payouts, the vast majority of people will have almost nothing but Social Security with which to support themselves on retirement. The value of their homes has declined, their 401(k)s have been decimated, many have lost their jobs. Yet these are the very people being called upon to make sacrifices to preserve our "national solvency", even as the people largely responsible for this crisis sustain their jobs and lifestyle on the back of huge government bailouts. It is a mark of the degeneracy of our political and economic system that it looks set to succumb to the maniacal protests of the deficit hawks, who urge yet more destructive public spending reductions (how's that work out for Ireland, by the way?), which will drive millions more workers out of jobs. If one really wants to talk about "intergenerational theft" (a theme well beloved by the leading actors of this Commission), then it's fair to say that the government that adopts the recommendations of the commission will truly be guilty of crimes against our children and grandchildren.

Marshall Auerback is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator.

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Jeff Madrick Blasts Deficit Commission's "Extreme Proposals"

Nov 11, 2010Jeff Madrick

Deficit Commission recommendations are a disaster in the making.

The draft proposal released as a surprise yesterday by the two chairmen of president Obama's fiscal commission is conceived and written in panic. It is a profoundly ideological set of policy prescriptions. The co-authors are counting on national alarm over the current budget deficit to make extreme proposals seem reasonable. It is an outrageous, misleading document, unsupported by evidence.

Deficit Commission recommendations are a disaster in the making.

The draft proposal released as a surprise yesterday by the two chairmen of president Obama's fiscal commission is conceived and written in panic. It is a profoundly ideological set of policy prescriptions. The co-authors are counting on national alarm over the current budget deficit to make extreme proposals seem reasonable. It is an outrageous, misleading document, unsupported by evidence.

The current deficit of $1.5 trillion is no reason for alarm. It is the result of the recession, which created large reductions in tax revenues, as well as increases in automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance. The Obama stimulus of $800 billion also is part of the deficit. But as a modeled by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, the deficit would have been higher without the stimulus.

The longer term deficit is also too often attributed to "big government." The projection of the Congressional Budget Office, adjusted for some realistic policy changes, such as the extension of the Bush tax cuts, is that the deficit will actually fall substantially to 4 percent of GDP and stay there for some time. Debt rises to 77 percent of GDP.

This increase is hardly trivial and a 4 percent deficit may not be sustainable. But increases are not the result of rising outlays for Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, contrary to what many, including members of the media, seem to think. The higher deficit and debt levels are overwhelmingly the result of three factors: recession, war spending, and the Bush tax cuts of the early 2000s.

In the 2020s and 2030s, Medicare and Medicaid outlays will at last begin to rise rapidly because overall healthcare costs without serious reform will likely rise rapidly-by 2 percentage points a year more than GDP per capita. This compounds to high levels quickly. Social Security, however, adds rather little to this deficit, rising from roughly 5 percent of GDP to 6 percent over the years. Medicare and Medicaid rise from 5 percent to 13 percent of GDP and higher. Along with interest, the debt can mount to 200 and 300 percent of GDP. Healthcare costs are what America must deal with.

But the White House commission draft proposal goes far beyond focusing on healthcare. First, it wants to reduce radically the income tax rate on Americans. One option is to reduce the top rate of 35 percent to 23 percent, or at the least to 28 percent. This is simply right wing ideology at work, and has nothing to do with deficit issues. To the contrary, the authors are using deficit alarms to present a new tax agenda. Is Obama really going to stand behind it? There is no commonly accepted evidence that current marginal tax rates, or even higher ones, suppress economic growth.

Second, the proposal will also reduce to and maintain federal outlays at 21 percent of GDP. The CBO expects them to be about 24 percent. Why the reduction? There is no reason at all to do so, except an ideological one: less government is always better. Again, there is no absolutely commonly accepted evidence that higher levels of government suppress growth. Yet the proposal is willing to make painful cuts in programs to meet this spurious goal. And it will leave no room for more public investment.

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Third, the proposal's goal is to reduce debt levels to 60 percent of GDP and eventually 40 percent. To do so requires a deficit on average of 2.2 percent of GDP. Again, there is no evidence that debt levels of 60 percent are better than levels of 70 percent, for example. Reducing the debt levels to 40 percent is simply Draconian. One argument is to keep them low to be able to respond to emergencies, as the nation just did. It would be far better to devote attention to avoiding the extreme emergencies.

In fact, American can easily live with a debt-to-GDP level of 70 percent and a long-term average budget deficit of 3 percent. With that as a framework, sensible compromises on spending cuts and tax increase can be reached.

But most dangerous part of this toxic package is that it urges cutting federal spending substantially in fiscal year 2012. At best, the unemployment rate will be in the range of 7.5 percent at that time, which many will fairly still consider recessionary. That is not time to administer austerity. A far better tool, if one had to be deficit minded, is to start reigning in spending or raising taxes (my preference) when unemployment is around 6 percent. I'd wait until it is well down into the 5s. That may take more time.

This proposal is not likely to carry the day. But the surprise publication is a calculated political gesture to win support. And it may surprise the doubters. There are in fact some good ideas in it. The mortgage deduction would be reduced. It calls for a higher gasoline tax. The cap on Social Security taxes would be raised. Large cuts in military spending are proposed.

But these are made palatable only by painful cuts in social programs, far lower taxes on income and corporate profits, aggressive pruning of federal employees, and no talk at all of more investment in infrastructure, education or energy technologies.

In fact, the priority now is to get the economy moving again with a stimulus. Once that is accomplished, the nation must turn its attention to reforming healthcare, and raising tax revenues to support the public investment that will truly prove a foundation for future prosperity.

The current White House proposal is not merely preposterous, it will be a disaster economically if anything remotely like it is passed. It is a nation running backward in defeat, not looking forward to the challenges of a new century and rising competition around the world.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of The Case for Big Government.

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After the Midterms, Job Number One is More Jobs

Nov 9, 2010Jon Rynn

need-job-150Democrats need a new slogan to convince the public they can fix the economy.

need-job-150Democrats need a new slogan to convince the public they can fix the economy.

After the 2010 elections, progressives need a good alternative to the Republican slogan "less taxes". Even though less taxes will lead to an even worse economy, at least it's an idea that indicates to its intended audience that the Republicans have an answer to the question, "how can we end the Great Recession?"

There may be a trend, if not a consensus, forming around the idea of "more jobs", emerging from the center-right all the way through to the left. In fact, at the far right of the Democratic party we have the example of David Brooks, who wrote about the Midwest: "If America can figure out how to build a decent future for the working-class people in this region, then the U.S. will remain a predominant power. If it can’t, it won’t... The Midwest has lost a manufacturing empire but hasn’t yet found a role... Voters in this region face structural problems, not cyclical ones. Intensely suspicious of government, they are nonetheless casting about for somebody, anybody, who can revive their towns and neighborhoods." Democrats have failed this region, says Brooks, and I can't argue with him. The obvious answer is to bring manufacturing back to the region, and if the Democrats can do that, then they will reclaim the Midwest, and with it, the Federal government.

A similar theme can be heard from the more official right-wing of the Democratic party, Evan Bayh. He writes that "We also overreached by focusing on health care rather than job creation during a severe recession...in the near term, every policy must be viewed through a single prism: does it help the economy grow?" So he poses the issue of job creation as being central, as does Paul Begala, representing the "Clinton center", who argues, "Job creation and reducing the influence of special interests are as mainstream as you get... President Obama and the Democrats should challenge the Republicans to support real investment in the real America: our roads and bridges and airports and mass transit."

But the main way that these strategists seem to think we can create jobs is to lower taxes! Marketing note to Democrats: when you're trying to differentiate yourself from Republicans, emphasize the way that you're different. Pepsi doesn't say "We're sorta like Coke!" Countering "less taxes" with "less taxes, but sorta different, and we know it won't be easy to figure out the difference, but our best wonks like it" is not effective. Better to concentrate on building stuff.

In fact, we also have Chris Matthews of MSNBC, not exactly a raving lefty, writing that Democrats lost "because the American manufacturing heart has been cut out. We used to build trains and subways and airplanes for the world... Why don't we build 'anything' anymore? Would we build the subway systems of our country today? Would we build the Empire State building or the Golden Gate Bridge? Would be build this beautiful capital of Washington today? " As I have argued, once we get going we could build lots of electric trains, wind turbines, and high-density buildings, generating tens of millions of jobs.

Once we start building stuff, which requires manufacturing, which requires giving people jobs, maybe we could talk about exporting manufactured goods instead of mostly importing them. Here's an example: it's from... well, hey, it's from the President! He writes, "We need to rebuild on a new, stronger foundation for economic growth. And part of that foundation involves doing what Americans have always done best: discovering, creating and building products that are sold all over the world... We want to be known not just for what we consume, but for what we produce. And the more we export abroad, the more jobs we create in America. In fact, every $1 billion we export supports more than 5,000 jobs at home."

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Let's say we try to eradicate the $858 billion dollar goods trade deficit that we had in 2007, just before the Great Recession. And let's go for a modest 150 billion dollar export surplus, as ambitious as that sounds, for a cool trillion dollars more exports than we have now. Then we would be able to create 5,000,000 manufacturing jobs -- not a bad policy goal to run an election on!

So we can create millions of jobs by using the government to build big infrastructure systems, and based on the ensuing revival of manufacturing, we can create even more jobs through exporting. What's not to like?

Apparently AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumka likes the idea, reports Art Levine: "'Realistically, both Democrats and Obama and the new House majority want to see job creation,' he contends. One arena for common ground is 'infrastructure -- we need $2.2 trillion worth of work on infrastructure and it's making us less competitive -- and we also need it for long term jobs creation.'"

Except that the Democrats aren't putting all of these ideas together, as we saw in this election. Bob Herbert worries, "What voters want is leadership that will help them through an economic nightmare and fix a country that has been pitched into a state of sharp decline. They long for leaders with a clear and compelling vision of a better America and a road map for getting there."

The last time the country was in this much trouble was during the start of the Great Depression. Several policies (and non-policies) were attempted before the government simply started creating jobs. Herbert Hoover mostly urged voluntary charity and waited for the market to work its magic, to no avail. When Roosevelt entered office in 1933, one of the first things he attempted was the Economy Act of 1933, which decreased government salaries and generally did many of the things that deficit hawks, such as Evan Bayh, would like to see done. Of course, it only made things worse; even the National Recovery Administration, which attempted to set minimum price and wage levels, didn't work. Finally, the Works Progress Administration, which directly created millions of jobs, came into being two years after FDR's inauguration.

For all the problems of the Great Depression, however, the country had one thing going for it that it doesn't have now -- the world's best manufacturing system, with over 40% of world output. I think that people sense that the country is in decline now, although thinking on how to turn things around runs from the inchoate sputterings of the Tea Party to the hand-wringing of the center-right to center-left to the disconnected ideas of the left. But we need to understand that in addition to the problem of creating jobs, we need to recreate the self-sustaining, job-creating engine of economic growth, the manufacturing economy.

So let's review: we need tens of millions of high-skill, high-paid, permanent jobs, which we can get by rebuilding the infrastructure of the country, which will also revive the manufacturing sector, which will lead to even more good jobs producing exports. "More jobs, better infrastructure, world-class manufacturing" -- is that better than "less taxes"?

Jon Rynn is the author of the book Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The power to rebuild the American middle class, available from Praeger Press. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the City University of New York.

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Women Want to Work Construction. Let's Help Them Get Jobs.

Nov 4, 2010Brigid OFarrell

woman-construction-worker-150After the crash, the downturn was dubbed a "mancession." As the meme continues to circulate, we asked leading thinkers to help us sort fact from fiction. Are men suffering more than women in a weak economy?

woman-construction-worker-150After the crash, the downturn was dubbed a "mancession." As the meme continues to circulate, we asked leading thinkers to help us sort fact from fiction. Are men suffering more than women in a weak economy? Is Washington doing enough to address female unemployment? How do we ensure a jobs agenda that's fair and equitable? In the final part of our series, "The Myth of the Mancession? Women & the Jobs Crisis", Brigid O'Farrell calls for a full employment policy that benefits women ready to work in non-traditional trades.

In this Great Recession, there is no question that the construction industry has been hard hit. Unemployment for construction occupations was almost 20% last year and reached a record 26% in February 2010, according to the U. S. Department of Labor. But is the laid-off electrician who was earning $856 a week, and is likely a union member with health benefits, suffering more than the home health aid still earning $430 a week, with no benefits and no union? Are men in the higher-paying construction industry suffering more than women in the lower-paying health care sector or women who are more likely to be single parents and living in poverty?

Who is suffering more, however, is the wrong question. Everyone but the very rich are suffering in this recession. In the 21st century, the federal government needs to have both a short-term stimulus program and a long-term economic plan that supports creating good jobs and decent wages for all workers without discrimination based on gender or race. It needs to have a jobs agenda that is fair and equitable. Government policies should not support one group of workers at the expense of others. Stimulus money going to the depressed infrastructure industry needs to create jobs that are equally accessible to men and women, minorities and non-minorities. Stimulus money in the new green energy industry should create jobs and actively recruit workers regardless of gender and race and not reinforce discrimination prohibited by law.

Let's focus more closely on women in the predominantly male, blue collar world of construction trades. Yes, there are women in these jobs. It is important to note that according to the Department of Labor in 2005, before the recession began, only slightly fewer women had joined the construction trades, about 274,000, than had become lawyers, 290,000. There were slightly more tradeswomen than women physicians, 268,000. Women, however, had become 30% of lawyers and 32% of doctors, but fewer than 5% of the electricians, plumbers or bricklayers. Despite three decades of equal employment policies, job training programs, and thousands of women showing that they are interested in and capable of performing this work, the jobs remain segregated and the women who are there are joining the unemployment lines.

Tradeswomen and researchers have identified many of the barriers to women's employment in skilled trades, including the socialization of young girls, employer discrimination in hiring and promotion, male coworker and union hostility, and lack of enforcement by government regulators. There is also evidence to support the kinds of outreach and training programs, as well as organizational changes, that are needed to recruit more women, end hostile workplace environments and sexual harassment (which can be life threatening in these jobs), reform employer personnel systems, and engage unions and employers in positive changes for hiring, training, promoting, and retaining women.

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These programs begin with vigorous enforcement of the laws, especially Executive Order 11246, which is under the jurisdiction of the Department of Labor and prohibits gender discrimination by government contractors. The Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) established the first goals for women in apprenticeship and skilled trades in 1978.

The Obama administration and Congress have undertaken several initiatives to address gender segregation in construction trades while increasing employment. Earlier this year, Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis met with tradeswomen, advocates, and researchers to discuss the barriers and successes for women in the trades. Patricia Shiu, director of the OFCCP, and Sara Manzano-Diaz, director of the Women's Bureau, have held hearings around the country. The Engineering News-Record reports that Shiu's office, which enforces the executive order, is reevaluating what "good-fair effort" means, and she declared that, "In order for the numbers to change, we have to be willing and able to enforce the laws that we implement, and we are."

There are no goals set for women and minorities to receive infrastructure jobs under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. But the stimulus program does include $20 million for grants in transportation and technology training and includes supportive services for women, minorities, and other disadvantaged groups. The Women's Bureau has again awarded over one million dollars in grants for outreach and training for women in apprenticeship and nontraditional occupations, the WANTO program. Congressman Jared Polis, from Colorado, has introduced H.R. 4830, the Women & Workforce Investment for Nontraditional Jobs Act. This Women WIN Act would authorize up to $100 million for recruiting, training, and retraining women in nontraditional jobs and establish a national commission to hold hearings and make policy recommendations.

Are these actions enough? Not yet. Policies and programs need to be supported with budgets and staff who implement rewards and penalties. It is too early to measure the effects of new initiatives or to predict the outcome of proposed legislation, but the movement is in the right direction. Hard economic times are not a reason to deny women the right to jobs they have shown they are interested in, that they are fully capable of performing, that they need to support their families, and that they have been denied access to in the past because of their gender. Government money must be spent without discrimination against women or people of color.

While it is well known that the Roosevelt Administration didn't solve the problems of employment discrimination, in 1948 Eleanor Roosevelt was instrumental in providing a human rights framework for achieving equality in the workplace. Written while she was chair of the United Nations Human Rights Commission, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights specifies in article 23 that everyone has a right to a decent job, fair working conditions, a living wage, no discrimination, protection from unemployment, and a voice at work. Perhaps we should put more effort into achieving a full employment policy under a human rights framework, instead of arguing about who is suffering more in a recession and how to divide limited resources in ways that reinforce gender stereotypes.

Brigid O’Farrell is an independent scholar whose research and writing focuses on employment equity, especially for women in nontraditional jobs, and labor history. She is the author most recently of She Was One of Us.

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