Sarah Burd-Sharps: Without Public Investment, the U.S. Will Fall Into Chaos

Aug 8, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Measure of America's Sarah Burd-Sharps looks at the sweeping consequences of the government's failure to invest in the future.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Measure of America's Sarah Burd-Sharps looks at the sweeping consequences of the government's failure to invest in the future.

Sarah Burd-Sharps, Co-Director of Measure of America, speculates on the consequences of declining public investment in infrastructure, regulation, education, and more. With government abdicating its basic responsibilities, the U.S. will face increasing chaos -- collapsing bridges, food contamination outbreaks, falling elevators, and unemployed teenagers. Burd-Sharps imagines a moderate political wing moved to act by the rising economic costs of under-investment.

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Robert Litan: As Tech Advances, Big Business Will Reap the Benefits

Aug 7, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Brookings' Robert Litan presents the evidence that incumbent firms will consume an increasingly large piece of the economic pie.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Brookings' Robert Litan presents the evidence that incumbent firms will consume an increasingly large piece of the economic pie.

Robert Litan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, speculates that the benefits from new technology could be captured by incumbent firms in the short term, to the detriment of business dynamism. Supporting that speculation, he observes two present-day business trends: first, a rising share of national income is going to big incumbent firms; second, firms older than 15 years (incumbents) comprise an increasingly large share of businesses overall. In short, evidence suggests older firms are increasingly dominant in the economy.  

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Dane Stangler: Changing Demographics and Funding Strategies Will Expand Entrepreneurship

Aug 6, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Dane Stangler of the Kauffman Foundation predicts that the entrepreneur class will become more diverse as a younger population makes use of new funding platforms.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Dane Stangler of the Kauffman Foundation predicts that the entrepreneur class will become more diverse as a younger population makes use of new funding platforms.

By 2040, demographic trends will drive a flourishing of new kinds of entrepreneurial activities, speculated Dane Stangler, Vice President of Research and Policy at the Kauffman Foundation. We will see a bulge in the 20-40 age demographic -- the key entrepreneurial age. But most importantly, new platforms -- like crowd-funding and re-localized production -- will allow for the diversification of entrepreneurship. For the first time, this will allow Americans from a wide range of backgrounds to build new businesses.  

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Amy Liu: Will Syracuse Become New York's Second Economic Capital?

Aug 5, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Brookings senior fellow Amy Liu posits that municipal goverments will take the lead on innovation and investment.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Brookings senior fellow Amy Liu posits that municipal goverments will take the lead on innovation and investment.

By 2040, as predicted, the federal government will be largely incapable of funding effective or innovative policies, speculates Amy Liu, Co-Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. Metropolitan areas will pick up the slack. They will reverse the race-to-the-bottom policies that aimed to offer companies the least explensive place to do business, and will instead focus on providing business with productive employees and critical infrastructure. The biggest problem could be a potential divergence in the success of metropolitan areas and expanding geographic inequality.

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Gar Alperovitz: The Worker-Owned Small Business Revolution

Aug 4, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, political economist Gar Alperovitz speculates on what could happen if workers claim power over small businesses.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, political economist Gar Alperovitz speculates on what could happen if workers claim power over small businesses.

Gar Alperovitz, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Maryland, describes the potential for a future economic revolution: starting in Cleveland, small businesses will democratize ownership. From there, the model will spread to cities across the country. As MBAs begin to understand that productivity in worker-owned companies is higher than in traditional firms, the movement will continue to grow.

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Roosevelt Reacts: NLRB Holds McDonald's Accountable for Labor Violations

Jul 30, 2014
Yesterday, the general counsel of the National Labor Relations Board ruled that McDonald's is a joint employer for the workers at its franchises, meaning that the corporation could be held liable for any labor and wage violations that occur at its individual restaurants.

The decision, says Roosevelt Institute President and CEO Felicia Wong...

Yesterday, the general counsel of the National Labor Relations Board ruled that McDonald's is a joint employer for the workers at its franchises, meaning that the corporation could be held liable for any labor and wage violations that occur at its individual restaurants.

The decision, says Roosevelt Institute President and CEO Felicia Wong, "rightly recognizes that, in today's changing and more fragmented workplace, workers still need the support and protections afforded by the law. Fast food workers are fighting for a wage that will allow them to care for their families and act as strong community members. This is an essential foundation for economic growth that benefits us all."

Adds Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Richard Kirsch, "The common sense ruling that McDonald's is as much one company in the way it treats its workers as it is when it makes a Big Mac is a major step toward holding the biggest corporations in the country accountable for creating jobs that boost the economy instead of busting it."

Read more about what the Future of Work Initiative is doing to promote policies that empower American workers and secure prosperity for all.

Image via Shutterstock

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Rob Atkinson: After the End of the Innovation Era

Jul 29, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Rob Atkinson speculates that concerns about technological unemployment are misplaced, and that the real challenge will be continued innovation.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Rob Atkinson speculates that concerns about technological unemployment are misplaced, and that the real challenge will be continued innovation.

Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, forecasts the end of exponential technological growth. The end of Moore's law and decline in R&D investment (due to reduced government spending and increased short-termism in the private sector) will lead to a reduction in innovation and a lag in productivity, Atkinson says.

For more, see "Are Robots Taking Our Jobs, or Making Them?" by Atkinson and Ben Miller.

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Daily Digest - July 24: All the Performance Pay, None of the Performance

Jul 24, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

Click here to subscribe to Roosevelt First, our weekday morning email featuring the Daily Digest.

The Pay-for-Performance Myth (Bloomberg Businessweek)

Click here to subscribe to Roosevelt First, our weekday morning email featuring the Daily Digest.

The Pay-for-Performance Myth (Bloomberg Businessweek)

Eric Chemi and Ariana Giorgi report on a new analysis of data on the relationship between company performance and CEO pay, which shows no relationship between the two factors.

  • Roosevelt Take: In his white paper, William Lazonick explains how stock-based performance pay incentivizes CEOs toward business practices that manipulate stock prices.

Elizabeth Warren to Help Propose Senate Bill to Tackle Part-Time Schedules (The Guardian)

Jana Kasperkevic writes that the Schedules That Work Act would establish a right to request a predictable schedule, payment for cancelled shifts, and two weeks' notice of schedule changes.

Technology, Aided by Recession, Is Polarizing the Work World (NYT)

Claire Cain Miller says a new study explains how the recession has accelerated the loss of "routine" jobs, which follow well-defined procedures and used to go primarily to men and people with less education.

Even After Open Enrollment, Activity Remains Unexpectedly High on Federal Health Insurance Exchange (ProPublica)

There have been nearly 1 million transactions on the federal exchange since the April 19 enrollment deadline, writes Charles Ornstein, as people continue to sign up for and switch insurance plans.

Paul Ryan's Anti-Poverty Plan Should Support Minimum-Wage Hike, But Don't Count on It (The Hill)

Raising the minimum wage is one of the best ways to fight poverty today, writes Shawn Fremstad, but Paul Ryan ignores research that shows higher wages wouldn't impact employment.

Highway to Hell (The Economist)

The Economist says Congress's solution to funding the Highway Trust Fund through budget tricks around pensions creates risk of greater costs on taxpayers if those underfunded pensions go bust.

New on Next New Deal

The Future Economy Will Pit Man vs. Machine

Andy Stern, president emeritus of the SEIU, presents a speculation on the future for the Next American Economy project in which technology replaces the vast majority of jobs.

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What Will the American Economy Look Like 26 Years From Today?

Jul 21, 2014Bo Cutter

Earlier this summer, the Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Find out what they had to say.

Participants in our recent convening speculated:

Earlier this summer, the Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Find out what they had to say.

Participants in our recent convening speculated:

“The post-WWII model of full-time, permanent employment proved itself the historical aberration we predicted: in 2040, only 12 percent of the American workforce is directly employed by corporate enterprises or government departments, and the average length of time spent on any one job is under six months.”

“New platforms and services will spring up to solve the problems of the micro-gig economy using distributed, peer-to-peer models of social insurance that will be hyper-local, but not based on geography. They will be based on the micro-niche identities that we build online -- accountants for bacon. Latinos who play Dungeons & Dragons. What have you.”  

“In the late '20s, the Know Everything Party assumed their final national political victories of mandating every American household be limited to three robots, one 3D printer, and own a minimum of three guns would be enough to secede and be left alone. After 15 years of explosive growth in income and wealth inequality, unimaginable to us in 2014, it all came to a head in our second Civil War, or what historians are calling the Bloodless War.”

Guided by the belief that we are on the precipice of fundamental and lasting economic change, the Next American Economy project gathered a group of 30 academics, business leaders, organizers, and technologists, and asked them to envision the long-term economic and political future of the United States. We gave our participants free rein to be bold in their speculations – to deviate from data, the conventional wisdom, or even their own expert opinions. The goal was not to predict the future, but to debate a series of critical questions: (a) Are we at an inflection point in the nature of innovation and technological change? (b) How will the rise of cities change the geography of economic activity? (c) How will economic trends alter the nature of work and employment? (d) Is the trend of widening income inequality likely to continue or stagnate?

What followed was a series of prescient, thoughtful, and often hilarious three- to four-minute speculations on topics ranging from the gig economy to the future of finance, from imminent civil war to the transformation of Google into a car company, and many more. Each speculation on its own could foster a day of debate and a sea of responses. For this reason, we will release one video speculation a day for the next three weeks, starting with David Autor’s description of economic polarization.

Our recent meeting was a first step toward our broader goal of identifying the trends likely to shape the future in order to identify the policy interventions needed to ensure the best possible outcome. The group identified key topics for further investigation and also found some areas of broad consensus.

  • 79 percent of participants believe “technological change will persist and will be big enough to disrupt business-as-usual."

  • 42 percent believe “a new paradigm of work is emerging and will change the nature of jobs for a large percentage of the population” and an additional 29 percent believe “a new paradigm has already emerged and you East Coast intellectuals are way behind the times.”

  • A total of 74 percent believe that even if an entrepreneurship booms leads to productivity growth it will not lead to job creation.

  • Nearly half (48 percent) believe that if inequality trends continue, the political backlash will be so extreme that our current system will change drastically in the next 25 years.

You can learn more about our project and find our forthcoming research on our website.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is Director of the Next American Economy project. He was formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm, and served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

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Daily Digest - July 16: Flawed Models for Understanding the Wage Fight

Jul 16, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

Click here to subscribe to Roosevelt First, our weekday morning email featuring the Daily Digest.

A Biased Report on the Minimum Wage? (East Bay Express)

Click here to subscribe to Roosevelt First, our weekday morning email featuring the Daily Digest.

A Biased Report on the Minimum Wage? (East Bay Express)

Darwin BondGraham speaks to Roosevelt Institute Fellow Annette Bernhardt, who says a study criticizing plans for a $12.25 minimum wage in Oakland used bad methodology.

Obama Administration Urges Immediate Action on 'Inversions' (WSJ)

The administration has asked Congress to put an end to these reincorporations abroad for tax purposes, and called instead for "economic patriotism," reports John D. McKinnon.

House Votes to Pay for Roads With Underfunded Pensions (The Wire)

Arit John explains the latest short-term plan for funding the Highway Trust Fund, which he says involves spending future tax revenue now and will lead to more shortfalls in the long run.

Hobby Lobby: A New Tool for Crushing Workplace Unionization? (MSNBC)

Ned Resnikoff explains how the Hobby Lobby decision could play out if an employer claims religious opposition to collective bargaining, as is already permitted for religious schools.

A Push to Give Steadier Shifts to Part-Timers (NYT)

Steven Greenhouse looks at the momentum behind laws that aid part-time workers by requiring further advance notice, extra pay for on-call work, and preference for more hours.

New on Next New Deal

Search Models, Mass Unemployment, and the Minimum Wage

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal looks at what's wrong with the models some economists are using to understand high unemployment and prolonged job vacancies.

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