Live at Dissent Magazine with "From Master Plan To No Plan"

Oct 24, 2012Mike Konczal

I have an article in the latest Dissent Magazine, co-written with Aaron Bady, titled "From Master Plan to No Plan: The Slow Death of Public Higher Education." It's now live and kicking off their newly redesigned webpage. It starts with Ronald Reagan in California in the 1960s, does a history of the creation and strengths of the University of California's Master Plan system and its dissembly, and ends with what John Aubrey Douglass calls the the Brazilian Effect. It's full of riot cops, occupations, moderate Republicans, thoughts on elasticities of supply, for-profit schools and more.

I have an article in the latest Dissent Magazine, co-written with Aaron Bady, titled "From Master Plan to No Plan: The Slow Death of Public Higher Education." It's now live and kicking off their newly redesigned webpage. It starts with Ronald Reagan in California in the 1960s, does a history of the creation and strengths of the University of California's Master Plan system and its dissembly, and ends with what John Aubrey Douglass calls the the Brazilian Effect. It's full of riot cops, occupations, moderate Republicans, thoughts on elasticities of supply, for-profit schools and more.

I hope this starts to move the conversation forward on higher education outside a specific focus on student debt, because that is likely to reach its limits outside a broader vision of what needs to be accomplished. Andy Kroll wrote a similar piece that went live earlier this month, so I think there's a lot of interest in this topic. In March, Catherine Rampell wrote about the Brazilian Effect in economix. Andrew Ross wrote a fantastic piece for Dissent's series on education on the aggressive expansion of NYU and other universities as part of a conscious urban planning framework, combining growth models based on the FIRE industires with those in the ICE (intellectual, cultural and educational) industries, which is an important part of the puzzle.

This may be my favorite written thing with my name on it and, as I've been given opportunities I wouldn't have had without public higher education, this political and economic battle means a lot to me. Hope you check it out.

 

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A President Should Run the Country Like a Household, Not a Business

Oct 22, 2012Minjon Tholen

Romney and his conservative colleagues have made it clear that they care more about bottom lines than investing in people's lives.

Romney and his conservative colleagues have made it clear that they care more about bottom lines than investing in people's lives.

In last week’s presidential debate, Governor Romney said he will make a great president because he is a businessman and has run companies. He might know how to make a profit and possibly balance a budget like he promises. But running a country is not just about balancing the budget – which, by the way, he likely wouldn’t be able to do any better than President Obama – and it is definitely not about making a profit.

President Obama is not trying to run America like a company. He has a background in community organizing and is trying to run the country like a community, like a family, a household. A nation is not just a material system of capital, investment, and revenue. It directly affects the human lives of each and every American. Households are invested in every family member, as their shared living space, culture, history, and lineage binds them together for life. In companies, on the other hand, employers and employees are generally tied together by monetary relationships.

A few years ago, I met a member of the Pan-African Parliament at the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women. We had a conversation about how to encourage women to participate in politics. She said she talks to women living in the villages in her country, and they typically respond that politics is not for them, as they “only” know how to run a household. The member of Parliament then told them that if they can run a household, they can run a country. Think about it: you have to work together and negotiate with your spouse or partner to make decisions and get things done (bi-partisanship), understand and respond to the needs of the various family members (constituencies), and do so strategically with limited resources (budgeting, redistribution, long-term investments).

This is President Obama's strength. Sure, he hasn’t been a perfect president – if such a thing exists. But I trust him as a leader. I believe he truly cares about all constituencies, especially those who have traditionally been disenfranchised. He understands the strategic, long-term social and economic benefits of investing in quality education, efficient universal healthcare, healthy lifestyles, fair distribution of resources, and respect and equal rights for every individual. He understands that a country is only as strong as its weakest link and that leveling the playing field for everyone facilitates equal opportunity and empowerment for individuals as well as for the entire country. He understands that creativity, innovation, and progress are promoted by leveraging our rich diversity. His commitments and policies regarding healthcare, gender equality, poverty, education, and immigration, for instance, give us the feeling that he is everyone’s president.

Governor Romney, on the other hand, recently made it very clear that it is not his job to be concerned about 47 percent of Americans. He implied that almost half of the country does not take responsibility for itself and that he won’t be able to convince it otherwise. But most people want nothing more than to be economically independent, and the fact that some are not is more a reflection of social inequalities than of their characters. As most parents know, to raise your children to be self-sufficient and productive members of society, they need to develop skills and gain knowledge. They need to be invested in; they need opportunities for personal and professional development.

David Brooks argues, "People are motivated when they feel competent. They are motivated when they have more opportunities. Ambition is fired by possibility, not by deprivation." Deprivation of opportunity -- an unleveled playing field -- does not create self-sufficiency and actually fosters dependency on others, including on the government. For all the conservative rhetoric about economic self-sufficiency and individual freedom, President Obama seems to get this logic better than his opponent, with a long-term plan to empower all Americans and with strategic budget decisions that will set us on the road to economic recovery, deficit reduction, and a more equitable society. Republicans say they so greatly value “the family as the cornerstone of society,” yet they disregard the factors that promote economically independent, educated, healthy, and thriving individuals and families.

By not raising taxes, cutting capital gains, and reducing the corporate income tax, Governor Romney is catering to big business and the wealthy and their interest in making a profit. Like companies, Republicans are focused on their own bottom line and the bottom lines of those they consider stakeholders in the conservative political ideology, rather than on the empowerment of all the American people. I’m sure Governor Romney is a wonderful husband and father. It just doesn’t seem like he would be a true family man when it comes to 100 percent of the American family.

Minjon Tholen is a Roosevelt Institute | Pipeline Fellow and the Training & Development Specialist at Cook Ross Inc.

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The Four Biggest Flaws in the Candidates' Debate Performances

Oct 22, 2012Bo Cutter

The second debate didn't do much to move the polls, but it continued to highlight some of the candidates' biggest flaws.

I'm not going to refight the second debate at any length. With these debates, we are at that well-known point most meetings and conversations reach: everything has been said, but not everyone has said it. There is no excuse to say it all again interminably.

The second debate didn't do much to move the polls, but it continued to highlight some of the candidates' biggest flaws.

I'm not going to refight the second debate at any length. With these debates, we are at that well-known point most meetings and conversations reach: everything has been said, but not everyone has said it. There is no excuse to say it all again interminably.

To dispense with the debate, Obama won. The polls all say it, and not even the Romney people contest it. He did not win overwhelmingly; the polls suggest by an average edge of about 4 percent among undecided voters. And he didn't win much. My estimate is that this debate influenced about 40,000 voters in toss-up states toward Obama; 125 million people voted in 2008, so we're talking about 0.003 percent (and I think that's an over-estimate). Clearly the biggest, most apparent victory in debate two was Obama version two over Obama version one. And the biggest effect was probably the palpable sense of relief among his own supporters.

But the debate did provide even more fuel for further rants on four topics: the future, international issues and politics, the Republican right, and "plans."

1. On the future. I continue to find President Obama and his team's failure to bring together a simple, straight narrative about the economy in the last four years and America's economic future incomprehensible. A credible narrative can be shaped, and it would work to the president's advantage. An equally credible view of a positive future could be presented. This is not a trivial omission; presenting a view of the future that allows citizens to accept and take on hard choices is a central requirement of leadership.

2. On international issues and politics. It's hard to avoid concluding that Governor Romney has been irresponsible in his approach to the violence in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia. His grasp of the facts is weak to non-existent, his lack of understanding of the basic uncertainties involved in most of these events is deeply naive, and his sense of fundamental issues of American power and national security is, let us say, undeveloped. Not that it matters, but his political strategy is also completely wrong. Given a set of sudden and violent events about which he knows absolutely nothing, by far the best strategy is to say in a completely straightforward way that he supports the president and then shut up.

3. On the Republican far right. Governor Romney has two obvious problems in these debates and this whole campaign. The first problem is well known: he has reversed himself so completely on every major issue that to get back into the game now he has to, on the run, re-reverse himself, deny he is doing it, and somehow convince the American people that he isn't a phony. Good luck. But an equally big problem is slightly less obvious: he is tied into knots by the positions of the Republican far right, which has never missed a chance to miss a chance. Whether the subject is taxes, spending, the social contract, abortion, immigration, or guns (neither Governor Romney nor President Obama distinguished themselves there), it is very clear that there are bright lines he is not allowed to cross. My own bet now is that President Obama will win reelection and the Democrats will retain control of the Senate -- in neither case by much of a margin. In both instances, a major reason will be the revealed preference of the Republican far right to be ideologically pure losers rather than winners with a chance to govern.

4. On plans. I continue to be completely in awe of Governor Romney's five-point "plan." This "plan" has either set back the whole idea of a plan by at least 5,000 years or moved forward to a whole new definition of plan. There is literally nothing of substance to this "plan." The 12 million jobs he will create is slightly on the high side of the number of jobs a normally performing U.S. economy would create in any circumstances. The tax plan is nonsense. The rest of it is at a cocktail party level of analysis. And Governor Romney continues to advocate this "plan" as proudly as ever. Why not? If he loses, the "plan" won't matter. If he wins, it will immediately be jettisoned, and should anyone be so ungracious as to bring it up, they will be told that the Romney administration is looking to the future, not the past (a time-honored technique). So, the new rules of "plans": always have a plan, always talk a lot about your plan, be sure your plan says nothing whatsoever, and, post-election, deny your plan ever existed.

Finally, the numbers: Nate Silver gives President Obama a 67.9 percent chance of winning, with 288 electoral votes and a 1 percent popular vote margin. Intrade is offering 61 percent odds on Obama. The Iowa Election Market is also at 61 percent. And Real Clear Politics' forced choice gives President Obama 277 electoral votes. This election is awfully close to even.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

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Romney's Tax Plan is Another Shot Fired in the Generational War

Oct 3, 2012Mark Schmitt

Romney's new cap on tax deductions, like his other policies, would transfer wealth to the wealthy and hit the young while shielding the elderly.

Romney's new cap on tax deductions, like his other policies, would transfer wealth to the wealthy and hit the young while shielding the elderly.

On Tuesday, Mitt Romney hinted at a key detail about his mysterious tax reform proposal. While he had previously suggested that he might eliminate some tax deductions or credits to pay for his proposal to reduce rates by one-fifth, yesterday he suggested that he would instead cap each taxpayer's total deductions at $17,000. Some questions remain, such as whether he would include the exclusion for health insurance in the cap, whether it applies to single filers or married couples, or whether it would raise enough money to pay for his proposed cuts. (Probably not.) But assume that it's a cap on the value of the biggest deductions, such as the mortgage interest deduction and the deduction for state and local taxes.

Because Romney would keep the preference for capital gains and dividend income and lower the top rate, any proposal to eliminate major deductions would in effect be, exactly as the Obama campaign has argued, a tax increase for the middle class to pay for a tax cut for the rich. A cap would work differently. Since it would impact only those whose deductions total more than $17,000, it would affect only the fairly well-off – those whose mortgage interest, state and local taxes, out-of-pocket health expenses, and other deductions exceed $17,000. As Suzy Khimm points out at Wonkblog, that will mostly be wealthy people in high-tax jurisdictions – but even the purchaser of a $450,000 house in Washington, DC would pay $18,000 in mortgage interest at the beginning.

Yet the Romney proposal as a whole, with capital gains still protected, would nonetheless redistribute income from the merely well-off to the very, very rich. To see what I mean, let's look at Mitt Romney's own tax return for 2011: Romney's deductions total $4,519,140 – a lot of money. At his average tax rate of 14 percent, deductions saved him $632,679. A cap would take away all but about $2,000 of that $632,679.

But look at what the capital gains preference does for him: Romney took home $12,573,249 in capital gains in 2011. (I've left out dividends, just to keep it simple.) At 15 percent, that's about $1,885,950 of his taxes. But if he paid the same rate as on ordinary income, 35 percent, he would pay about $4.4 million. So the capital gains preference saved him $2.5 million, while deductions saved him only about $632,000.

I'm just using Romney as an example here, partly because he's a very rich person whose tax return I happen to have. But a well-off family, earning maybe $200,000 a year in ordinary income with a $600,000 house, is already paying a much higher rate than the Romneys of the world and would face a significant increase.

There's one more thing about this proposal that hasn't really been mentioned: It would be a giant intergenerational transfer from young to old. Just as Paul Ryan's Medicare proposal creates a generational divide between those currently under 55 (who have spent much of their working lives in a stagnant economy) and those who are older and whose benefits would be protected, capping deductions has a similar generational effect. Why? Because younger people benefit disproportionately from the mortgage interest tax deduction and older people benefit from preferential rates on capital gains and dividends.

The mortgage interest deduction is worth much more in the early life of a mortgage, when most of each monthly payment is interest, than later, when it becomes mostly principal. And the deduction has no value for people who have paid off their homes or paid mostly in cash from the sale of an old home. Finally, older homeowners are more likely to have purchased before the real estate bubble of the 2000s. In a 2008 paper, the economists James Poterba and Todd Sinai examined the distribution of tax deductions by age and other categories. They found that homeowners between the ages of 25 and 35 got an average value from the mortgage interest deduction of $1,155, and homeowners between 35 and 50 got $1,598. But homeowners over 65 got only $149 on average from the deduction.

Who benefits from the preference for capital gains and dividends? Here's a chart from Paul Caron's TaxProf Blog

As the chart indicates, taxpayers over 65 are twice as likely to have capital gains or dividend income than those 45-55, and those preferred sources of income make up much more of their income than for younger groups – six times as much in the case of dividends. The Romney tax plan would protect this advantage.

While many older Americans live under great economic stress and poverty, there is a significant portion of them who benefited greatly from the economic prosperity of the post-War era, who had significant economic gains from their early investments in housing and in the stock market in the 1970s and 1980s, and who also benefit from programs such as Medicare and Social Security that provide them significant economic security. The younger generation (by which I mean those under 55) has not had the same advantages, and both Ryan's budget and Romney's tax plan would make it worse for them while protecting the wealthiest of the older generation.

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Republicans are Pro-Choice (on Paying Taxes)

Sep 28, 2012Tim Price

Instead of establishing a fair baseline for rich taxpayers, House Republicans want to let the rich chip in whatever they want.

Instead of establishing a fair baseline for rich taxpayers, House Republicans want to let the rich chip in whatever they want.

Last October, President Obama introduced the so-called “Buffett Rule,” a tax provision that would require multimillionaires to pay a minimum 30 percent effective tax rate. It was named for the Oracle of Omaha himself, Warren Buffett, who famously complained about paying a lower tax rate than his own secretary. The idea garnered a great deal of public support, with one CNN poll from April 2012 finding as many as 76 percent of Americans in favor. Last week, bowing to popular demand, House Republicans passed the Buffett Rule Act of 2012, which naturally has nothing to do with any of that. Instead of establishing a baseline of fairness, it encapsulates the conservative notion that wealthy Americans shouldn’t be asked to contribute any more to society than they’re willing to volunteer.

The Republicans’ version of the Buffett Rule, which is not actually a “rule” in the sense that you or I or Webster’s Dictionary might understand the word, would allow taxpayers to check a box on their tax forms if they want to contribute more than they owe in order to help pay down the deficit. But, you may ask, can’t taxpayers already choose to pay more than they owe? Why yes, they’re free to send a check to the Treasury Department. So what does this bill actually do? Well, it would add a box they can check to send it to the IRS instead! The Joint Committee on Taxation projects that this bold innovation would help raise $122 million in additional revenue over the next 10 years. That’s slightly less than the $47 billion that Barack Obama’s version of the Buffett Rule would raise, but combined with more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, it puts the hard-nosed deficit hawks in the GOP on track to balance the budget some time around the heat death of the universe.

There’s a fundamental ideological divide between progressives and the modern conservative movement, and it concerns how much they buy into the concept of the social contract. That divide is reflected in the GOP’s fallback response to President Obama’s Buffett Rule proposal: “If Warren Buffett thinks he doesn’t pay enough taxes, why doesn’t he just volunteer to pay more?” Mike Konczal effectively dismantles this pseudo-logic here, and on a rhetorical level, it’s on par with “If you love the government so much, why don’t you marry it?” On the other hand, it makes a certain amount of sense if you think of society as something we can choose to opt out of once it’s outlived its use to us instead of an ongoing support system that we’ve all bought into. If you see the rich as the people who have benefited the most from our tax-funded social structure, it only seems fair to ask them to give back more in tough times. But if you think the rich are noble martyrs who are doing the rest of us a favor by choosing not to “go Galt” and withdraw from society, it’s clearly unjust to ask any more of them unless they volunteer it out of the goodness of their hearts.

Unfortunately, the GOP approach presents an obvious collective action problem, which is why it’s expected to raise so much less money than Obama’s mandatory minimum rate. The reason we have a tax code in the first place is that we determined it was impossible to fund the essential functions of government by having the president busk for tips. We don’t set the federal budget by passing a basket around and adding up the loose change we’ve collected. Congress establishes tax rates, we pay our taxes, and in exchange we get schools, roads, police, firefighters, health care, clean air, safe food, and so on. That’s how it works – except for the wealthiest Americans. With Republicans’ help, they have a few extra steps, like hiding their money in tax shelters, benefiting from all those government services anyway, and then complaining vociferously about how unfairly they’re treated.

Case in point: during last week’s Friday news dump, Mitt Romney released his 2011 tax returns, which showed that he had overpaid his taxes to avoid dropping below a 13 percent effective rate. At first blush this might seem like an example of the Republican Buffett Rule in action: look at this guy, giving until it hurts! Never mind the fact that he once said anyone who did that was some kind of moron who didn’t deserve to be president. But this was pure campaign strategy, not altruism. Having made $13.7 million last year, he paid only a 14.1 percent effective tax rate even after fixing the numbers. The problem is, he’d previously said he’d never paid less than a 13 percent rate in the last 10 years, and if he had taken all the deductions he was entitled to this year, he might have wound up paying as little as 9 percent. To put it another way, if Romney had taken full advantage of the breaks offered to him by the current tax code, he would have paid so little as to embarrass himself. And he’s not alone. According to the Congressional Research Service, one quarter of millionaires pay an effective tax rate of less than 26.5 percent, while 10 million middle-class Americans pay a higher rate.

As former Reagan administration official Bruce Bartlett has noted, the ineffectual nature of the GOP’s Buffett Rule is a feature, not a bug. He writes, “The political reality is that Republicans don’t really support taxation at any level. Of course, none will go on the record saying that they favor abolition of all taxation; they just support every single tax cut and oppose every single tax increase.”

In the extreme Ayn Rand-inspired worldview that Republicans like vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan have embraced, non-voluntary taxation is essentially theft. In reality, it’s the only way to provide vital public goods. As I wrote in the wake of the Aurora shootings, an equitable society depends on a strong and reliable social safety net, not the kindness of strangers. The same holds true for other government functions. If we want the services we’ve determined government can most effectively provide, and if Republicans are serious about wanting to rein in the budget deficit, we need to set rules that establish a steady stream of revenue, not hope that Bill Gates is in an especially good mood when he fills out his 1040.

Tim Price is Deputy Editor of Next New Deal. Follow him on Twitter @txprice.

 

Tax forms image via Shutterstock.com. 

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Larry Katz on the Real Reason Education is the Key to Economic Growth

Sep 25, 2012Bo Cutter

The expansion of the American education system produced 100 years of economic growth, but we need a new model to achieve a sustainable, equitable future.

The expansion of the American education system produced 100 years of economic growth, but we need a new model to achieve a sustainable, equitable future.

The Next American Economy breakfast seminars resumed last week with a discussion with Professor Larry Katz focusing on his and Professor Claudia Goldin's book, The Race Between Education and Technology. If you haven't read this book, there is a great deal about our economy you won't understand. If you don't read at least the introduction now that you've been told, shame on you.

Larry has several fundamental insights. (These are the ones I picked out; he might prefer to highlight others.)

First, at a minimum, 25 percent of our productivity growth -- and therefore our economic growth -- over the 100 years between 1870 and 1970 is due directly to increases in the average number of years of education of the American people. It is highly likely that the actual contribution of education is significantly greater; 25 percent is a minimum.

Second, during this period, economic growth was high and equality actually improved in America despite fundamental economic and technological change -- change every bit as great as the changes we have seen in the last 30 years. In other words, we have been here before. We dealt with the effects of technological change in the past through advances in education. There is no obvious reason we could not do so again.

Third, the fundamental educational change during this period was "the high school movement," a grassroots-driven movement that saw free, gender-neutral access to high school as critical to community success. 

Fourth, there has been no recent educational revolution similar in scope to the high school movement, and the big change that has occurred -- the growth of post-secondary education -- has not been free. Not coincidentally, the growth of educational attainment in America has slowed, economic growth has slowed, and inequality has risen. 

Finally, this slowdown in education is probably a more important factor in the stunning rise in inequality we've seen than the shift of income toward the top 1 percent, which has grabbed more of the headlines.

Based on this discussion with Larry, I conclude that the mantra of the next successful political movement in America should be sustainable, equitable growth, and that this is a plausible goal. 

I'll go further. A long period of relatively high economic growth is within our reach starting in a couple of years if we would get out of our own way. I've written a piece on this titled "An American Renaissance," which I'll send to anyone who asks.

But this is not a layup. If we are to grow more rapidly over the next 20 years than we did on the last 20, we have to have a productivity revolution. More of our growth will have to come from productivity -- about 80 percent in the next decade, as opposed to 35 percent to 50 percent in the last three decades. To keep growth constant with the last 3 decades, labor productivity will have to grow by about one-third. If none of this happens, the generation born during the last decade will experience about 60 percent of the per capita income growth as did the generation born in the '60s.

The single most important thing we could do to increase the rate of growth of productivity is to increase the level of educational attainment of Americans. But sustainable, equitable growth is not a goal either of our current parties cares much about. The current progressive movement's singular focus on income distribution is both misplaced and convenient. Misplaced because there are better, more available paths to take that would accomplish both more equity and more growth; convenient because this focus enables it to ignore all the real issues. The right's obsession with unfettered markets is even more nuts and completely ignores the economic history of how American growth actually happened.

A true next American revolution in education will not be a simple linear extension of our current system. It will involve a combination of lifelong learning and certification, a commitment to teaching students how to learn continually, an equally deep commitment to what Larry Katz calls contextual training, a renovation and invigoration of our community college system, the use of the web in unique, student-oriented, and user-friendly ways, and major long-term costs. I would guess $50 to $75 billion annually for a long time -- between one-third and one-half a percent of GDP.

 But our current plan, of course, is to do nothing meaningful. As I've said before, the two parties are on a course to gut most of the government in order to protect the entitlements and retain the worst features of our current tax system. As an example, the total of all of the non-personnel investments in the federal budget is now $310 billion, or 8 percent of the total federal budget and slightly less than 2 percent of GDP, and it will fall to $270 billion, or 5 percent of the total budget and about 1.5 percent of GDP, over the next 10 years. This is a plan to build a low-growth, unsustainable economy with growing inequality.

Not to belabor a point I've probably made too frequently, but the door is wide open for what one might call a new progressivism or a new conservative movement. The old right can then focus on its Brigadoon-like vision of a time when the market roamed free and unfettered. The old left can focus on income distribution. And the real work of building a workable society based on sustainable and equitable growth can be carried out by whoever decides to reach first for the prize.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

 

School classroom image via Shutterstock.com.

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The Romney-Ryan Medicare Plan is Bad for Students and Seniors

Sep 21, 2012Rahul Rekhi

Shifting health care costs onto seniors will break a social compact that all Americans rely on.

Shifting health care costs onto seniors will break a social compact that all Americans rely on.

With Election Day finally in sight, the last few weeks have been brimming with slogans, speeches, and sound bites. But while Republicans and Democrats are working from a similar playbook, there’s a gaping chasm between their competing visions of the social safety net, and the future of Medicare hangs in the balance. In short, the Republicans claim their voucher plan would reduce health care costs, but the truth is that the seniors who depend on Medicare would be forced to pay the price.

The policy clash boils down to a single notion: vouchers. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are proposing a voucher-based Medicare system—one in which seniors are given vouchers to trade for insurance plans on a national exchange or market. The value of these vouchers is capped at a specific value, with the aim of curbing rising health care costs. And in fact, it is completely true that the Romney-Ryan voucher system will reduce Medicare costs, as promised. But it will do so by pushing those expenses onto Medicare enrollees, by forcing them to pay more out of pocket to cover their medical expenses as health care costs rise. What the GOP is proposing, in other words, is not exactly cost-cutting, but rather cost-shifting from government to seniors. If the yearly national allowance of vouchers has expired and your heart begins to fail, well, at least take solace in the fact that Mr. Ryan’s plan lowers Medicare costs by 20 percent.

If you’re only looking at the arithmetic, voucherizing Medicare is a clear and easy solution to bending the health care cost curve. Unlike, say, prevention and wellness campaigns, it’s not hard to project the level of cuts such vouchers will allow for. But this policy simplicity and straightforwardness mask an equally straightforward truth. Rather than attempt to extract amorphous, messy savings through biomedical innovation, electronic records, waste reduction, comparative effectiveness research, or incentivizing quality of care—in other words, achieving collective savings through progressive reforms—Romney and Ryan propose to gut Medicare and hand senior citizens the entrails. And this is hardly hyperbole; the nonpartisan CBO itself stated that the plan “could lead to reduced access to health care; diminished quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries…[and] less investment in new, high-cost technologies.”

That’s not to say that changes to the structure of Medicare are not needed, or will not require tradeoffs; they will. Real discussions, for instance, will have to be had over such hot-button topics as end-of-life care, or limits on the use of expensive, clinically unproven medical technologies. Refinements to these policies would bring Medicare into the 21st century, making it more nimble and in tune with technological advancement and social change. But they also preserve its central guarantee: that our nation’s retirees, having put in a lifetime of hard work and civic service, will receive quality, affordable health care to support them through their later years.

Fifty years ago, with the creation of Medicare under LBJ, thousands of soon-to-be enrollees—aunts, uncles, professors, my friends’ parents and my own—grew up trusting in this promise. And though, as a student, it will be nearly half a century before I qualify for the program, I recognize all too well the gravity of the decision we now face. It is one, after all, that will be borne most heavily by my peers, since the costs that are shifted to seniors today will be thrust upon us tomorrow as health care costs continue to rise. And young Americans will feel the consequences of voucherization well before we reach the age of eligibility, for the security that Medicare provides allows us to take risks when we're younger, to try to create the next Facebook or Instagram, rather than play it safe for fear that we'll be left destitute or denied care in our later years. To chip away at the heart and soul of our social safety net is, in a sense, to hinder innovation itself.

Ultimately, the choice we face is simple: to uphold this mandate or reject it fundamentally; to maintain the promise of health care access for our elderly or begin chipping away at the coverage we provide in the name of budget-balancing. This debate is about a decades-old American social compact, and its effects will reverberate, shaping the futures of not only my own generation but also the ones to come. For the health of our citizens and our safety net, there is only one right answer.

Rahul Rekhi is a student at Rice University and the Senior Fellow in Health Care Policy for the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network.

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Romney's 47 Percent Remarks Reflect the Mentality FDR Fought Against

Sep 20, 2012David Woolner

Romney's comments may spark a widespread backlash against the kind of contempt for the poor that FDR once overcame.

But here is the challenge to our democracy: In this nation I see tens of millions of its citizens—a substantial part of its whole population—who at this very moment are denied the greater part of what the very lowest standards of today call the necessities of life…

I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished.

Romney's comments may spark a widespread backlash against the kind of contempt for the poor that FDR once overcame.

But here is the challenge to our democracy: In this nation I see tens of millions of its citizens—a substantial part of its whole population—who at this very moment are denied the greater part of what the very lowest standards of today call the necessities of life…

I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished.

But it is not in despair that I paint you that picture. I paint it for you in hope—because the nation, seeing and understanding the injustice in it, proposes to paint it out. We are determined to make every American citizen the subject of his country’s interest and concern; and we will never regard any faithful law-abiding group within our borders as superfluous. The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. - Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1937

Mitt Romney’s callous remarks about the 47 percent of Americans who “pay no income tax,” are “dependent on government,” see themselves as “victims,” and will never “take personal responsibility… for their lives,” have been seized upon by both conservative and liberal commentators as the strongest indication yet that Romney is out of touch with the American people. They have also proved to be something of an embarrassment for fellow members of his party who are running for office. In Massachusetts, for example, U.S. Senator Scott Brown told the Boston Globe that Romney’s remarks did not represent the way Brown viewed the world. “As someone who grew up in tough circumstances, I know that being on public assistance is not a spot that anyone wants to be in.” Similar sentiments were echoed by a number of other Republican candidates, like Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, who told Politico that as the son of an auto mechanic and a school cook—with five brothers and sisters—he did not "view the world the same way” Romney does. In New Mexico, meanwhile, Republican Governor Susana Martinez responded by noting that her state had “a lot of people that are at the poverty level…but they count as much as anybody else.”

Romney’s remarks have also sparked a good deal of interest in just who the 47 percent are and what this figure means. Ironically, the net result this furor may be to inject a more elevated discussion into the nation’s political discourse about one of the most important issues facing the country: the alarming rise in the number of Americans who have joined the ranks of the poor.

According to official statistics just released by the Census Bureau, the number of Americans living in poverty reached 48.5 million people in 2011, the highest number in 53 years. And while the percentage of Americans living in poverty finally appears to be falling from its high last year of 15.9 percent, it is important to remember that the number of “near poor”—those individuals and families who struggle with incomes just above the poverty line—has topped 51 million. That means the total number of Americans living below or just above the poverty line now stands at just under 100 million—roughly one-third of the population.

Given these statistics, and the growing number of Americans who have retired and are living off of Social Security (which the retirees have paid for through payroll taxes), is it any wonder that approximately 47 percent of the American populace pays no federal income tax? Of course we should not forget that most of these individuals do pay payroll taxes as well as state and local taxes, not to mention sales taxes, which are in place in 45 states.

A far more important question is how it is that the richest country in the world now finds itself with roughly one-third of its population living in such dire economic circumstances. According to Mr. Romney, these 100 million Americans are stuck in or near poverty because they have refused to take “personal responsibility and care for their own lives.” As such, they are quite happy to live on government handouts, firm in their belief that they are “entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it.”

Quite apart from the debate over health care, one would have thought that access to food and shelter is not something that a civilized society in the 21st century would deny its most vulnerable citizens—and when pressed Mr. Romney has backed away a bit from such an extreme stance. But the undeniable disdain in his comments for “those people” whom he has characterized as freeloaders who regard themselves as “victims” has sparked a strong negative reaction, even, as noted, from many members of his own party.

This is welcome news, for it may portend the first glimmer of hope that the winner-take-all, you’re on your-own philosophy of the extreme right is being undermined by a far more compassionate and realistic view of how a modern society is supposed to function; a society where we can all agree that government has a responsibility to provide the average citizen with a basic level of economic security and equal access to economic opportunity. This would include policies that ensure that all Americans have equal access to education and affordable health care and where the focus of the debate about the size and role of government would center how best to use government—not eliminate it—in our fight to eradicate poverty.

Seventy years ago, in the midst of an even worse economic crisis, Franklin Roosevelt faced a number of critics who characterized the world in a manner that was quite similar to Governor Romney’s. “You know their reasoning,” FDR said. “They say that in the competition of life for the good things of life; ‘Some are successful because they have better brains or are more efficient; the wise, the swift and' the strong are able to outstrip their fellowmen. That is nature itself, and it is just too bad if some get left behind.’” But, he went on:

It is that attitude which leads such people to give little thought to the one-third of our population which I have described as being ill-fed, ill-clad and ill-housed. They say, "I am not my brother's keeper"—and they "pass by on the other side." Most of them are honest people. Most of them consider themselves excellent citizens.

But this nation will never permanently get on the road to recovery if we leave the methods and the processes of recovery to those who owned the Government of the United States from 1921 to 1933.

In Roosevelt’s day, those who “owned the Government” from 1921 to 1933 promoted the same type of laissez-faire policies that Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan embrace and which contributed to the economic collapse President Obama inherited in 2009. By the mid-1930s, however, most Americans found themselves in agreement with FDR’s comment that “we have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics.” They also concurred with his view that “out of the collapse of a prosperity whose builders boasted their practicality has come the conviction that in the long run economic morality pays.”

Perhaps Mr. Romney has done us all a favor, for his apparent indifference to the plight of “those people” who make up the 47 percent of the American population has forced a good many of his fellow Republicans to admit that government does have a role to play in ensuring we live in a decent society. They may not agree with the Democrats on how just how large a role government should play, but their tacit acknowledgement that government can and must be part of the solution to the nation’s problems is a welcome change from the ceaseless and vacuous claim of the far right that government stands at the root of all our problems.

Who knows; in the long run, it may even lead to the moderation of the Republican Party, something which all Americans, even the 47 percent, would welcome with open arms. 

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute. He is currently writing a book entitled Cordell Hull, Anthony Eden and the Search for Anglo-American Cooperation, 1933-1938.

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Four Histories of the Right's 47 Percent Theory

Sep 20, 2012Mike Konczal

As you've likely heard, Mitt Romney was recorded at a fundraiser saying that "there are 47 percent who are with [President Obama], who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it [...] These are people who pay no income tax."

As you've likely heard, Mitt Romney was recorded at a fundraiser saying that "there are 47 percent who are with [President Obama], who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it [...] These are people who pay no income tax."

The right is splitting over whether or not the 47 percent argument is worth defending. It's important to understand that, while it is true that 47 percent of households don't pay a federal income tax, the distribution of the tax burden isn't what the 47 percent theory is about. The 47 percent theory is all about grand political battles. My colleague Mark Schmitt has one examination of where this theory comes from hereBrian Beutler also investigates the background of the 47 percent meme, and Kevin Drum does a history of the EITC here.

Digging into different arguments, there are two distinct parts to a good 47 percent theory. The first is who creates and sustains the 47 percent as a political agent. This can't be the bipartisan set of policymakers who wanted to do income support through work requirements as well as expand certain credits, particularly the child credit; it needs to be agents with specific, outside political goals. Those who pay little or no income tax are a coherent group that acts like a special interest or a class. Instead of the young and the old, as well as the working poor moving into and out of the EITC, this group of people is stable enough that it can act as a coherent political class, but it needs to be created and sustained. Who does it?

The second part of a good 47 percent theory is that the consequences need to be terrible because the stakes are so high. Rather than successfully transitioning people out of poverty and into work, the consequences are negative for our country. But how high are those stakes, and what do they represent?

Let's start at the beginning. Where does this meme start?

1. Trickle On Trickle Down: The Lucky Duckies of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page: Let's look at the Wall Street Journal's opinion page, November 20, 2002, "The Non-Taxpaying Class: Those lucky duckies":

"Who are these lucky duckies? They are the beneficiaries of tax policies that have expanded the personal exemption and standard deduction and targeted certain voter groups by introducing a welter of tax credits for things like child care and education [...] The 1986 tax reform, for example, with its giant increase in the personal exemption and standard deduction, took six to seven million people off the tax rolls [...] This complicated system of progressivity and targeted rewards is creating a nation of two different tax-paying classes: those who pay a lot and those who pay very little. And as fewer and fewer people are responsible for paying more and more of all taxes, the constituency for tax cutting, much less for tax reform, is eroding. Workers who pay little or no taxes can hardly be expected to care about tax relief for everybody else. They are also that much more detached from recognizing the costs of government.

All of which suggests that the last thing the White House should do now is come up with more exemptions, deductions and credits that will shrink the tax-paying population even further."
This argument was developed in future editorals. A few weeks later, in  "Lucky Duckies Again: Look at who won't pay taxes under Bush's plan", the Journal noted that "No doubt the Bush team proposed this tilt toward lower income taxpayers to mute the class-warrior critics, not that we've noticed any lower decibel level."
 
Who? Interestingly enough, this looks like an internal fight among conservatives and Republicans. That's how Krugman read it at the time, and it seems obvious from that last sentence. The Bush tax cuts are going to be across all families, and the editorial is warning that this is the wrong approach. It should focus just on the rich, corporations, and capital income holders. The editorial is clear that they don't want to raise taxes on those who are exempted from the federal income tax; they just fear that these across-the-board tax cuts will knock a lot of people out of the system.
 
This was a correct assertion, as this number skyrocketed after the George W. Bush tax cuts. To whatever extent the Bush team didn't want to do this, they felt boxed in politically. As a top Bush administration official later told Ezra Klein, “Do you think we wanted to include a welfare payment to people who don’t pay taxes and call it a tax cut? No. But that’s what we needed to do to get it done.”
 
Consequences? The editorial warned that this policy would buy them no room with the "class-warrior critics," and that's probably a fair assessment. Repealing the Bush tax cuts has been a consistent goal for Democrats, and their preferred approach is even worse than the Wall Street Journal could have imagined. The Journal just wanted tax cuts on those making over $250,000, and warned about cutting at the bottom end of the spectrum because of the lucky duckies. Now the situation is reversed, and President Obama is looking to keep the tax cuts for those making under $250,000 and repeal the rest.
 
There's the idea that as a policy matter workers will simply not care for cutting taxes or for tax reform more broadly. This is why Romney can say "So our message of low taxes doesn't connect." But this isn't played up in apocalyptic terms. The editorials seemed more concerned that the federal tax code will retain its progressivity under this tax cut, rather than the lucky duckies initating a new culture war. This is in stark opposition to:
 
2. The Battle: Right Wing Think Tanks and the New Culture War: Let's jump forward, and see how the expensive, Washington D.C. think tanks react to President Obama. President Obama is a wonky technocrat, and much of his policy borrows from conservative policy of the 1990s (health care) or bipartisan policy of the 2000s (cap-and-trade) or policy that was new and open to debate (post-crisis financial regulations). The new president of the American Enterprise Institute, Arthur C. Brooks, writes a book called The Battle: How the Fight between Free Enterprise and Big Government Will Shape America's Future. How does he think of the 47 percent? Focusing on "long-term strategies to keep the young in the 30 percent coalition," he writes:
Federal tax policies are ensuring that an increasing number of people in our society will never develop a pocketbook interest in free enterprise. Even as they grow older, develop their careers, and earn more money, many will never pay a dollar in federal income tax because they'll never catch up with an increasingly progressive tax system.
 
To put a modern twist on an old axiom, a man who is not a socialist at 20 has no heart. But a man who is still a socialist at 40 has no head-or pays no taxes. The current trend will increase the percentage of Americans who are permanent net takers from our society, who use more in public resources than they contribute, and for whom a free-enterprise system of entrepreneurship and limited government holds few obvious personal rewards. In a nutshell, the strategy is to make fewer and fewer people pay all the taxes and bear the brunt of paying for a growing government [...] After President Obama's budget stimulus and the proposed tax changes of 2011 [...] this proportion will increast to almost 47 percent. [...]
 
Simply stated, in the future there will be fewer and fewer people with "skin in the game." Nonpayers will outnumber the payers. We will enventually reach a threshold beyond which most Americans have no economic incentive to defend free enterprise because it is so far from their interest to do so. The young sympathizers of socialism today may be the grown-up defenders of socialism tomorrow.
As Mark Schmitt wrote, "this theory that we're headed toward a radical egalitarian state is being developed is the American Enterprise Institute, the oldest of the conservative think tanks and one that, much like Romney, has forsaken the traditional business-minded conservatism of, say, the first President Bush, for hard conservatism in which everything is a grand showdown of incompatible worldviews." And The Battle was the first statement that President Obama was at the vanguard of a new culture war on economic issues. Instead of wanting a government that consumes 25 percent of GDP and has a public welfare state versus one that consumes 19 percent and has a private welfare state, he is the economic equivalent of Robert Mapplethorpe. The right takes this book seriously; the author of the most prominent critical review of the book from the right was canned from his think tank job a month after it came out.
 
Who? The "30 percent" are the ones behind this expansion of people who don't pay federal income taxes, and they'll continue to expand it. Now before you think you wandered into a Wu-Tang song, we should clarify Brooks' definition of the 30 percent and the 70 percent. The 30 percent are a group of people who "reject the free enterprise system culturally." The free enterprise system stands in "stark contrast to European-style social democracy." The 30 percent "twists equality of opportunity into equality of outcome." Any idea that American liberalism stands in contrast to free market laissez-faire and Marxism isn't explored; the 30 percent are entirely the bad guys, waiting to fundamentally change the country. Jonathan Chait wrote an excellent review of the book here,
 
Consequences? The big consequence is that this locks young people into socialism and the intellectual space of the 30 percent coalition, building their power. Having never paid taxes, they and others who benefit will think of government as free. So the 30 percent are then capable of continuing to seize more centralized control of the economy and defeat the cultural forces of free enterprise. The Battle is obsessed with how President Obama won in 2008; one conclusion is that the 30 percent doesn't need to win people over intellectually, but just needs to keep enough people not paying taxes so that they'll form a coherent base, particularly the young. But the 30 percent culture allows Romney to note that those who oppose his message "are dependent upon government [and] believe that they are victims."
 

3. The Hammock. During the Q&A part of this 2011 Paul Ryan speech at Heritage (19m35s), Ryan noted:

I think it's 49 percent of people who don't pay taxes today, though there are other taxes. Here's the danger I think we have. We're coming close to a tipping point in America where we might have a net majority of takers versus makers in society and that could become very dangerous if it sets in as a permanent condition. Because what we'll end up doing is we will convert our safety net system - which is necessary I believe, to help people who can't help themselves, to help people who are down on their luck get back on their feet - we could turn that into a hammock that ends up lulling people into lives of dependency and complacency, which drains them of the incentives and the will to make the most of their lives.

Who? The do-gooders who created the social safety net.  It's too generous, too unconditional and not tied enough to work. In a practical way, it is the safety net itself that is creating this condition. Rather than the correct interpretation that people who are not paying taxes are receiving income support that requires work or various, purposely chosen tax credits, this indicts everything from health care to unemployment insurance (which, by definition, you needed to have worked to receive). This is a smart approach, because while going after the "30 percent" isn't really a political platform, dramatically reducing the social safety net is.

Consequences? It's not clear what "complacency" means in this condition, but dependency means that more and more income will come from the government. As this happens, their ability to take personal responsibility will fall apart. People will be beyond the ability to help themselves, hypnotized as they are by the siren's call of the welfare state. This is why Romney can say "I'll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

4. Takers and Public Choice:
 
From Reason Magazine a while ago:
DeMint: Almost half of Americans are getting something from government, and the other half are paying for it. And we're on a track where 60 percent are getting something from government and 40 percent are paying for it. You can't sustain a democracy with that mix.
 
Reason: Because the 60 percent is going to be voting a bigger and bigger share of the 40 percent's money?
 
DeMint: It's hard to win elections when you're talking about limited government if the constituents want more from government. You see that phenomenon on display in Greece. When the country is going down in flames, there are still people in the street, demonstrating for more government benefits. We've got to understand we're in trouble, that we don't have much time. 
Or this from Steve Doocey on Fox and Friends: "Coming up! A controversial question. With 47% of Americans not paying taxes – 47% – should those who don’t pay be allowed to vote?"
 
Who? The 47 percent themselves. As predicted by Public Choice theory, those at the bottom half of the income scale vote into office people willing to take from the top half of the income scale. Since the average is above the median in income, there's always redistribution from the average to the median to be done. Here the intellectuals of the 30 percent, or the welfare state, or GOP strategy are all secondary; the ravages of democracy are the culprit.
 
Consequences? The system eventually collapses into itself, as those at the margin work less and also join in demanding more. DeMint alludes to Greece, where the collapse of the government seems almost to be part of the plan to then take over the state, which is consistent with the right's conspiracy theory of the Cloward-Piven strategy. But this focus on stop-gating the median voter allows for Romney to think "What I have to do is convince the 5 to 10 percent in the center that are independents."

Presumably there are more. What else is missing?

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The Theory of the Moocher Class

Sep 18, 2012Mark Schmitt

The conservative narrative of the "entitlement society" ignores the fact that most Americans are both givers and takers.

The conservative narrative of the "entitlement society" ignores the fact that most Americans are both givers and takers.

As David Brooks points out, Mitt Romney's remarks describing 47 percent of the population as, in effect, moochers who would vote for Obama because they got government benefits were not “off the cuff,” as he described them today. There is a carefully developed theory behind his words, which has seen expression in previous Romney speeches, such as one last December in which he described Obama's vision as an “entitlement society” in which “everyone receives the same rewards,” but in which “we'll all be poor.”

The lab where this theory that we're headed toward a radical egalitarian state is being developed is the American Enterprise Institute, the oldest of the conservative think tanks and one that, much like Romney, has forsaken the traditional business-minded conservatism of, say, the first President Bush, for hard conservatism in which everything is a grand showdown of incompatible worldviews. The two recent books by the current AEI president, Arthur Brooks (The Battle and The Road to Freedom) embody this apocalyptic approach, as does a recent essay-with-graphs by longtime AEI scholar and accomplished demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, called “A Nation of Takers.”

AEI invited me to participate on a panel with Eberstadt a few months ago, when the essay was just a series of unpublished PowerPoint slides. I welcomed the invitation, but had to cancel due to a conflict. However, I wrote up notes at the time, and what follows is adapted from those notes.

“A Nation of Takers” shows in some detail the expansion of government benefits since the 1960s and the share of the population they reach. The data is not wrong, but it's selective, and the story that Eberstadt has wrapped around them – that receipt of benefits makes people “dependents,” that people are becoming “chiselers,” choosing to maximize benefits, that the expansion of entitlements was a political effort by the left that slowly overcame “resistance” from real Americans -- is highly tendentious. The reality is that people who receive benefits are no more or less “dependent” than corporations that get tax breaks or legal protections, that the expanding costs of major entitlements are about rising health care costs and, to a lesser extent, the demographics of an aging nation rather than more people becoming “takers,” and that the expansion of some benefits to the lower rungs of the middle class was a bipartisan project in which conservatives should take pride.

There is a story implied in the very word, “takers,” which is reminiscent of former Senator Phil Gramm's oft-repeated metaphor of a wagon: there are “people riding in the wagon,” he would say, and “people pulling the wagon,” and the people riding need to get out and pull. But while you can't pull a wagon and ride in it at the same time, you can certainly be a taker and a giver at the same time, or at different times in life. For example, Eberstadt's charts show that the government benefit that grew fastest in recent years, not surprisingly in a recession, is Unemployment Insurance. Everyone who receives benefits from Unemployment Insurance, without exception, has worked – usually full-time and steadily for at least a year – and paid into the system through their employers. And they will (they desperately hope) work again and pay even more. Some people might end up receiving more, over their long working lives, while others might pay in while having the good fortune never to be unemployed. But that's the nature of insurance. Most of us, other than the permanently disabled, are givers and takers to government, because that's what it is to be part of a community or a nation.

A look at the individual programs behind all of these charts indicates that the big story is the extension of the social safety net from the very, very poor to the lower rungs of the working poor, particularly through expansion of Medicaid and tax credits for working families. With bipartisan support, these innovations have fundamentally changed the social safety net that both conservatives like Charles Murray and Lawrence Mead and liberals like David Ellwood described in different ways two decades ago: a system in which it really did make more sense for poor parents not to work than to give up the linked package of benefits that went with non-work, including welfare, Medicaid, and food stamps. Meager as those benefits were, they were often economically preferable to a minimum-wage job without health care or other assistance, and with the added costs of child care.

Changing that system was not just a matter of imposing work requirements, but of smoothing the path into the workforce and toward self-sufficiency. Medicaid eligibility was delinked from welfare and linked instead to income, starting at 100 percent of the poverty level and reaching 185 percent in the Affordable Care Act. Together with the State Childrens' Health Insurance Program, expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, the Refundable Additional Child Tax Credit, the Child and Dependent Care Credit, the Make Work Pay Credit, expansion of child care, the after-school and summer food programs, and others, we have created a safety net that extends well into the low-income working population. These individuals, too, are both takers and givers – they are working hard, contributing to the economy, and while some of them may not pay federal income taxes at the moment, they will as they move up.

This dramatic reorientation of the safety net didn't just happen; most of these initiatives had significant bipartisan and cross-ideological support. Not only do they provide a ladder out of poverty and reward work, they also make possible the relatively low-wage, low-security labor market that gives employers enormous flexibility. Conservatives used to argue, for example, that raising the EITC was a better alternative to raising the minimum wage, and they mostly won that fight. The result is that low-wage employment is essentially subsidized, and businesses are able to hire at very low cost and low commitment, with none of the barriers to either hiring or firing that are common in Europe. Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney and others in the current wave of conservatism seem to have entirely forgotten the merits of these innovations, and in their promise to protect programs only for the very, very poor, they threaten to restore the hopeless poverty traps of the 1970s and 1980s.

It's also worth noting that most members of the “Nation of Takers” probably don't think of ourselves as “takers.” In her important recent book, The Submerged State, Suzanne Mettler of Cornell looked at data asking people whether they had ever benefited from a government social program. While most participants in the classic, older transfer programs were aware that they had benefited from programs, most of the newer programs, especially those delivered through the tax code, were invisible to a majority of their beneficiaries. (Even 45 percent of Social Security recipients said they had never used a government program, which may reflect the belief that they are receiving benefits they've paid for.)

While many on the left latched onto this data as evidence that Americans, especially conservatives, are hypocrites who revel in public benefits while maintaining an anti-government stance, there's really much more to it than that. Delivering benefits through “submerged state” programs has broken any kind of connection between citizens and the benefits we receive. We can't have a clear debate about whether we're a “Nation of Takers” or whether these benefits are essential to maintaining the promise of a middle class country if most of us don't even know the role that government plays in our lives.

Conservatives and liberals built the submerged state together, often sharing a preference for delivering benefits through the tax code. But a concerted effort to reduce the long-term budget deficit, with tax reform at the center of it, creates an opportunity to surface submerged programs and replace them with far more efficient, visible, direct programs. When the public is fully aware of the benefits it's receiving, it's possible that voters will recoil in shock at the degree of their dependency, or perhaps they will regain a healthy respect for the role of government in providing some of the security that helps them take full advantage of their capacities and opportunities.

It's disappointing that Romney shows no interest in either drawing out the submerged state or in the bipartisan project (of which his health reform in Massachusetts was a part) of smoothing the path to economic success for families. Instead, he just sees half the country as people who can't be convinced “that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.” That's a very strange view of this country and a tragic development in modern conservatism.

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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