America's biggest economic problem? We're all broke. Literally.

Aug 7, 2009Marshall Auerback

empty-pockets-200If Americans have virtually no cash -- and, alas, we don't -- the economic recovery is yet another American dream. Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback explains.

empty-pockets-200If Americans have virtually no cash -- and, alas, we don't -- the economic recovery is yet another American dream. Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback explains.

Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG estimates. The percentage of “underwater” loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first  quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report yesterday.

In December 2006, only a few months after the peak of the housing bull market, the total value of U.S. residential property stood at $21.9 trillion. Prices have dropped by 31 percent since the end of 2006, so the estimated value today is about $15 trillion; however, the mortgage debt remains more or less unchanged and stands at $10.6 trillion. In other words, whereas debt-to-equity in the U.S. housing market was 48% as recently as in December 2006, it is now 70% and will rise to 80% once house prices have mean-reverted.

Although painful, a rise in debt-to-equity of that magnitude would actually be manageable if it were not for the fact that income and wealth in the US is extremely skewed. The top 1% of income earners in the U.S. account for more than 20% of national income while the median household has seen no improvement in income for the past ten years.  Within the median household sector itself, then, there is still a tremendous financial vulnerability which has not been addressed at all by the Obama administration. Home ownership in the U.S. is far greater than in most modern economies. Equity ownership is also high. The bursting of the real estate and equity bubbles has destroyed the wealth of the U.S. middle class to a devastating degree. And it is with this middle class that the high private indebtedness lies. If there is going to be a further financial crisis in the U.S. it is probably going to be focused on the household sector. If balance sheet recession dynamics are going to depress aggregate demand through wealth destruction and debt repayment, it is probably household sector demand where this will surface.

Almost one-third of all U.S. households have no mortgage. If you adjust for that, the 70-80 percent debt-to-equity ratio suddenly becomes a major challenge because it means that the two-thirds who do have a mortgage already face a debt-to-equity ratio in excess of 100%. Even worse, once the mean reversion has run its course, two-thirds of US households will be facing a debt-to-equity ratio of 120-125% on average. U.S. CONSUMERS ARE EFFECTIVELY BROKE.

Obviously, households have assets and liabilities other than property and mortgages. But it's clear that the U.S. consumer has been repeatedly on the losing end of the serial "bubblelisation" of the American economy.  The collapse of the dot.com bubble and the more recent plunge in real estate means that the great majority of U.S. households are more financially stressed at any time since the Great Depression. And yet policy has been largely directed toward "solving" the "problems" of the financial sector (where much of the country's existing wealth is concentrated), and only minimal efforts have been applied to solve the debt problems of households and non-financial businesses.

As the DB Securities report illustrates, households’ ability to spend is a function of three factors - cash flow (which again is driven mainly by income, mortgage rates and tax), credit (bank lending) and homeowner equity (property prices). Now, with negative equity against their main asset, with even more pressure on income as a result of the recession and with virtually no savings to cushion the pain, the majority of U.S. households have no choice but to cut back drastically on their consumption. And with the U.S. consumer being forced to pull back, the global recovery story turns very pale indeed in the absence of sustained fiscal stimulus WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS ON AGGREGATE DEMAND, NOT BANK BALANCE SHEETS, as we have repeatedly argued.

The U.S. economy is today crushed by massive household indebtedness.  Maintenance of the status quo is not a solution. Administration proposals to relieve debt burdens by encouraging lenders to renegotiate mortgages have failed miserably. Personal income is falling at a terrifying rate. Already 6.5 million have lost their jobs—with June, alone, adding a half million job losses. The administration’s promise that the stimulus package will create 3.5 million jobs over the next two years is unsatisfying in the face of the challenges faced. And yet we are told to "be patient."

We need federal government spending programs to provide jobs and incomes that will restore the creditworthiness of borrowers and the profitability of for-profit firms. We need a package of policies to relieve households of intolerable debt burdens. In addition, given that the current crisis was fuelled in part by a housing boom, we need to find a way to deal with the oversupply of houses that is devastating for communities left with vacancies that drive down real estate values while increasing social costs. And we’ve got to reign in the born-again deficit hawks who, having got their fill from the government's fiscal trough, have all of a sudden become preoccupied with “paying for” additional spending through tax hikes or spending cuts elsewhere.

If home prices revert to their mean the average mortgage indebted American homeowner will have a deeply negative home equity. Given the paltry liquid wealth and 401K holdings, most of such households may have no net worth at all. Under current U.S. law widespread negative home equity could lead to mass debt repudiation as opposed to debt paydown, which could lead to an ever growing number of foreclosures which in turn could further weaker house prices. Because so much of the broad U.S. middle class will have their personal net worth decimated, it might lead to a social and political crisis of sorts. Such a crisis could materialize sooner and more abruptly than is now appreciated in Washington.  The brief populist anger felt in the wake of the AIG bonus payouts might be child's play compared to what is in store in the future.

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback is a market analyst and commentator.

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Elizabeth Warren makes a clear-cut case for regulatory reform

Aug 4, 2009Elizabeth Warren

consumer-protection-200Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, argues that the financial industry has profited from government's well-documented refusal to protect consumers.

consumer-protection-200Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, argues that the financial industry has profited from government's well-documented refusal to protect consumers. A Consumer Financial Protection Agency can change that -- bringing honesty back into our financial transactions and innovation back into the financial industry.

The Federal Reserve, the OCC [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency], and the OTS [Office of Thrift Supervision] have had the legal authority to protect consumers for decades. The agencies’ well-documented refusal to protect consumers — refusal that ultimately jeopardized safety and soundness of financial institutions and that brought the economy to its knees — results from two structural flaws in the current system.

The first flaw is that financial institutions can choose their own regulators, which causes regulators to under-regulate. By changing from a bank charter to a thrift charter, for example, a financial institution today can change from one regulator to another. In fact, an institution may decide to evade a federal regulator altogether by housing its operations in the states and forgoing a federal charter. Institutions can shop around for the regulator that provides the most lax oversight, and bank holding companies can shift their business from their regulated subsidiaries to those with no regulation — and no single regulator can stop them. The problem is exacerbated by the funding structure: Regulators’ budgets come in large part from the institutions they regulate. This regulatory arbitrage has triggered a race to the bottom among prudential regulators and has blocked real consumer protection.

The second structural flaw is a cultural one: Consumer protection staff at existing agencies is small, the last to be funded, and always playing second fiddle to the primary mission of the agencies. At the Federal Reserve, senior officers and staff focus on monetary policy. At the OCC and OTS, agency heads worry about capital adequacy requirements and safety and soundness. As the current crisis demonstrates, even when they have the legal tools to protect families, existing agencies have shown little interest in effective consumer protection.

President Obama’s proposal to create a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) represents a significant paradigm shift — a shift that will repair a structure that failed us.

First, the CFPA will bring existing federal consumer regulation under one roof. Similar regulations for similar products will apply across the board — whether those financial products are issued by a federally chartered bank, a state chartered thrift, or an unlicensed business. Financial institutions will be unable to shop around for the regulators that regulate least. Likewise, regulators will no longer have to choose between relaxing standards or watching haplessly as institutions choose to go outside the regulatory system altogether.

Consolidation will also allow for streamlined, smarter, and more consistent regulations — regulations that will reduce cost and burden but increase effectiveness. Instead of passing one law after another weeding out credit scams and dividing regulation among many agencies, a single agency can slice through the regulatory maze to create one consistent — and well-enforced — set of rules.

The CFPA would create a home in Washington for people who care about whether families are playing on a level field when they buy financial products. Canada created this structure by establishing its own version of a CFPA in 2001, and its policymakers swear by the results. By bringing economic experts who care about consumer financial issues under one roof, CFPA can develop as a smart agency with real expertise.

A smart agency with real expertise will develop safety standards that work for families and that, in turn, will promote stability among institutions and prevent the next crisis. It will focus on one, driving question: Are consumer financial products explained in a way that consumers can understand and that allows the market to work?

Today, mortgage disclosures are incomprehensible to — and unread by — virtually everyone. The average credit card contract is now 30 pages, up from only one page in 1980. While lenders promote a few highly visible features — nominal interest rates, free gifts, and warm and fuzzy branding — the real revenue enhancers are the tricks and traps buried in the fine print. The CFPA would ensure that contracts are comprehensible and that consumers can compare terms. When consumers are able to make informed choices and comparisons, the industry will begin to innovate around their preferences — not around more tricks and traps.

The CFPA will promote comprehensible disclosure by pre-approving templates for “plain vanilla” contracts designed to be read in just a few minutes — a regulatory safe harbor that would reduce regulatory burden. The lender would fill in the blanks — like the interest rate, when a penalty is triggered, how much the penalty will be, and so on. Risk-based pricing would live on. And institutions could continue to offer complicated or risky products, so long as the risks and costs are disclosed in terms that can be read quickly and that can be clearly understood.

Of course, even with a CFPA, consumers who go on shopping sprees they can’t afford would suffer the consequences. Personal responsibility will be as important as ever. But the CFPA will allow for consistent, across-the-board safety standards that ensure borrowers can understand the costs of their credit and compare products. The health and vibrancy of the consumer credit market — and our economy — depend on that.

Defenders of the status quo have long tried to make financial regulatory reform sound complicated and dangerous. The result has been lax standards and little oversight. Big financial institutions lobbied against the establishment of FDIC insurance in the 1930s, but the resulting security strengthened families, banks and the economy. Once again, real regulatory reform is needed. Dangerous consumer products have destabilized families and injected huge amounts of risk into our economy. Real regulatory reform means more than making tweaks on the margins and perpetuating a status quo that failed us. It means permitting bank examiners to focus on their areas of expertise — safety and soundness — while building an agency that has real expertise on — and that really cares about — consumer protection.

Elizabeth Warren chairs the Congressional Oversight Panel. She is a Harvard Law professor, teaching contract law, bankruptcy and commercial law. In May 2009, she was named one of Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People in the World. This piece first appeared in the The Hill.

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The case for wiping out American debt

Jul 30, 2009Joe Costello

shackles-200Can an indebted people be free? Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Joe Costello investigates.

shackles-200Can an indebted people be free? Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Joe Costello investigates.

One thing I learned in electoral politics is that "80% issues" are very powerful forces. If such an issue gets in play, it can massively change political landscapes,  and being on the wrong side can be fatal to political careers.

Rasmussen is reporting that 80 percent think the financial bailouts benefited Wall Street, not average taxpayers, which means most of the DC establishment is on the wrong side of an 80% issue.  Anti-bailout politics have yet to gel into any great force, but I suggest there's time. The slowing economy has some Democratic reelect numbers plunging across the country: Dodd's are at 39 percent, Corzine at 37 percent, and tongue firmly in cheek, Democratic incumbent Arlen Specter is doing best at 45 percent. These are pretty terrible reelect numbers. Democrats have to begin asking themselves, "What if next fall, unemployment is in the double digits and the economy as a whole is at best stagnant?"

The case for deflationary stagnation is now stronger than it ever was, and here's why. First and foremost, when a massive financial bubble pops, you get deflation. That's what happened in the '30s and that's what happened in Japan in the '90s. If you have a bubble in some small sector, say technology stocks, the economy might take the hit and coast through it, but when the bubble is widespread -- for example through every single component of the financial system -- deflation cannot be avoided. The only real cure for financial bubbles is to not let them form. 

In the last few months, the global economy has slowed its rate of contraction, but it is still contracting. Japan is reporting producer price falls of 6.6 percent. Eurozone prices turned negative in June, with Germany expected to report negative price growth in July for the first time in a half-century. Unemployment is still rising; Spain is up to 18 percent. US unemployment will soon be over 10 percent, housing prices are down a third from their peak and still heading south. Finally, according to the Wall Street Journal, the banks reported in the second quarter, their lending contracted by almost 3%.

Tyler Durden over at Zero Hedge put up a nice report last night. He starts with the simple fact that the American consumer is 70 percent of the economy and then shows all consumer numbers quite impressively heading south. A couple of other statistics pointing to deflationary stagnation are state and local tax revenues dropping at their steepest in a half-century. State budgets are being cut across the country, and California isn't the only place slicing their education spending. The New York Times reports that unemployment benefits stalled across the country due to tight state budgets. 

The only argument against stagnation at this point seems to be global stock and commodity markets, but let's be clear, Alan Greenspan proved for two decades the Fed can pump up the stock market, and Mr. Bernanke has done just that, and so have the Chinese for that matter. As Mr. Bernanke embarks on his reappointment campaign, it's imperative the message go out strong and clear: Mr. Bernanke cannot be reappointed, nor Mr. Summers replace him. We need to begin embarking on a quite different course than the one we've been on for the past 30 years. Mr. Bernanke is out of bullets. In 1935, Fed Chair Marriner Eccles didn't call the effectiveness of monetary policy in a deflationary period "pushing on a string" for nothing. Indeed, the Fed balance book might not be as inflationary as it appears. We don't know what's in it. It may well be worth half or even less of what Mr. Bernanke is counting.  After all, the Fed is a bank right? And the main accounting rules for banks today are mark to pleasure aren't they?  I can't more highly recommend this short video explanation by Dylan Ratigan, with Eliot Spitzer, over at MSNBC on what the Fed's done the past year.  

These numbers, and our still crippled financial system, point to if not outright deflation, long-term economic stagnation. We dont know deflation well, but I'll say this: It is not simply a monetary phenomenon. Most importantly in combating deflation, it's better for the government to put a dime in a person's pocket than a dollar in a bank vault. Traditional industrial economists shout more fiscal spending, and that's okay and needed, but it wont solve the biggest problems, and the largest is America's debt culture. It's time we had a debt Jubilee.

Now, I first heard of the idea of a Jubilee a year ago, reading a piece from University of Missouri professor Michael Hudson. Then a few weeks ago, Willem Buiter of the Financial Times advocated giving a debt Jubilee some thought. Jubilee is codified in Leviticus, one of the great law books of the Jewish Torah. And of course, the Christ was the personification of Jubliee, whose birth is perceived as humanity's manumission from sin. A debt Jubilee would be a large scale manumission of debtors, or as Mr. Buiter suggests, a mass scale swap of debt for equity. There's a couple of easy things we can do such as loan modifications for underwater homeowners, writing down the principal to present market values and thus lowering monthly payments. Also, a one-time wiping away of student debt for everyone under 35 would be healthy.

America is a massivley indebted society, and indebted people are not free. We need to change this. If we forgive debt, we can't let people just start building more debt. We need to free them and some of our institutions from their constraining debt load, in order that we might make the changes necessary for a sustainable future. The more we keep shackling people, institutions, and society with debt, the more we are constrained to the status quo and the past. We will make necessary change impossible. People need to be freed to allow them to create a new beginning, individually, economically, socially, and politically. We need to start thinking new about a lot of things. If the economy stays stagnant, I can guarantee there will be a lot of new thinking in DC after the next election. 80% issues are powerful things.

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Joe Costello was communications director for Jerry Brown's 1992 presidential campaign and was a senior adviser for Howard Dean's effort in 2004.

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Ah, Wall Street. Seeing the real you at last.

Jul 30, 2009Robert Johnson

math-wizard-200Robert Johnson, director of the Economic Policy Initiative of the Roosevelt Institute, argues that Wall Street can no longer dazzle Americans with fancy "innovations." Instead It must prove those innovations are good for (all of) us.

Well, I sailed through the storm

math-wizard-200Robert Johnson, director of the Economic Policy Initiative of the Roosevelt Institute, argues that Wall Street can no longer dazzle Americans with fancy "innovations." Instead It must prove those innovations are good for (all of) us.

Well, I sailed through the storm

Strapped to the mast,

But the time has come

And I'm seeing the real you at last.

Bob Dylan- Seeing the Real You at Last

Innovation.  It is a lovely word that teases the mind with the notion of expansive possibilities. Pushes out the frontier.  A win-win game.  Just as Americans once expanded westward to relieve social tensions, we are now exhorted to have a rather imprecise faith in the notion of technological change to deliver us from our current troubles.  Embracing that starship to unlimited possibility and deliverance requires a faith that cannot be easily refuted:  Who, after all, is against progress?

David Noble, who has written so powerfully about this in his series of books including America by Design, Religion of Technology and Beyond the Promised Land, has explored this mythology of redemption and salvation through changes in technique and deference to undefined dreams of "possibility."  It is time to apply his perspective to the religion of financial innovation.

We have seen the financial sector,  with its massive resources and access to the best minds of public relations, work to create what Stuart Ewen calls "spin."  The sector has busied itself with presenting new financial techniques, gilded as glories of 21st century innovation. In the deregulatory era of finance, we have been ever-so-persistently encouraged to draw the comparison between developments in financial products and the great leap forward in social uses of computers and the Internet, or advances in biomedical research. Former mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists redirected their energies and Ph.D. tenacity to the domain of finance.  Financial innovation was presented to us in a way that suggested that great things were happening for mankind.  The presentations were usually vague. To understand them, we had only the power of our own imaginations, or perhaps, failing that, our awe in the face of this powerful expertise, confidently propelling us to a greater future.

Skeptical questioning--"Where are the benefits to be found?"--was frowned upon or ignored.  "Just doesn't get it," the whisperers would say.  The skeptic was discredited with the insinuation that he or she was either 1) jealous of those who were making money and progress at the same time, or 2) had fallen down like a tired horse and just could not keep up with the new breed of thoroughbreds on Wall Street.  After all, what kind of human spirit  would get in the way of progress?

The reason I bring forward the notion of "spin" is that I sense that the great benefits of financial innovation were not self-evident, and that some form of intimidation or coercion was needed to keep the genie of doubt in its bottle.  If a great Wall Street luminary were actually forcefully questioned, could he really convince grandma and you and me that he was making the world a better place?  The point of the exercise, the spin, was to create deference to this process, to deter questioning and create social license, to make what those rocket scientists were doing appear as though their work was not merely profitable but something that would benefit us all.   It was presented like a free option to the public: Wall Street pays these guys and "shazam!" They do things that make us all better off.   No reason to get in the way of that, or even suggest that your Congressman or friendly bank regulator keep an eye on the proceedings.  The subtle message was, "Get out of the way."  Such was the Kool-Aid poured into our glass by the financial press and pundits. That capital avoidance and tax avoidance and regulatory evasion were involved in offshore and off- balance-sheet methods was rarely emphasized, as the notion of innovation was paraded like a badge of valor.

Then we had the crisis.  The side effects and spillovers and bailouts reminded us that what we had allowed to unfold was not a free option on progress but something that had a downside, too.  It's funny how a crisis changes your perceptions.  Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction, said Mr. Buffett, who owns large blocks of stock in many of the financial weapons manufacturers.  Paul Volcker claims now that the only worthwhile innovation he can cite is the ATM machine. (And the banks have doubled the fees for using them post bailout!).

Despite these recent protestations, I am witnessing the lingering hangover of deference to so-called "innovation."  It permeates the debate on regulation.  We hear that getting in the way of new technique may cause more problems than it solves.  Or that the innovators can always outrun the regulators.  Or, and this is my favorite, that nothing you do to stifle these new derivative products like credit default swaps will (ominous music in the background) lead to "systemic risk."   Systemic risk is the new stun-gun phrase to impart dread to those who would tamper with this delicate machine.

Malarky.  This is all code for defer to the wishes of those who make money from these techniques.

Financial engineers on Wall Street are employed to make money for Wall Street firms and themselves.  There is no hidden code that says they will design their products to align private and social benefits and costs.   That is precisely where a healthy role for regulation and laws and enforcement can be envisioned.  At the same time, it is important not to be romantic about that vision, though. Regulatory policy often does not live up to the romantic appeal, as theories of collective action and regulatory capture have illuminated.

My takeaway is distinctly unromantic.  It is that, devoid of these religious-like connotations, innovation simply implies the use of a new method or technique. It can be harmful or it can be helpful.  Let's keep score.   It can benefit us both, or it can harm us both, or it can make you better off and me worse off, or vice versa.  That sober reality, and the notion that we are a society, sets the stage for critical thinking about these methods.  If credit default swaps serve a purpose and are economically viable when proper capital and margin requirements are in place, then let the proponents bear the burden of proof in convincing us of the benefits to society according to some real social goals, rather than the vague myth of intangible progress.   Protecting the profit margins of large investment firms is not a social goal.

We have a serious and  real problem right now as a society that employs complex technique.  Experts in the financial, nutrition, energy, and health realms have been found wanting when the curtain is pulled back and their behavior examined.  Trust, particularly in financial expertise,  has been shattered.   Early in the 20th century, the so-called  Progressive Era was an attempt to bridge the gap  between the oligarchs of industry and the populists.  Deference to expertise was said to be in the interest of all.  Delay gratification and let the experts allocate capital so that in the future we would all be better off was the mantra.  It had a religious-like psychic resonance.   Experts on economics and social planning were custodians of our future, not unlike the role that priests played in earlier times.  Restrain yourself now to achieve the promise of the afterlife. The linchpin was the experts vision and integrity.  They were trusted to make sure we all got to economic heaven together.

We just got handed a big bill and the perpetrators that led to the bailouts are back getting large bonuses.   If experts cannot be trusted and governments are unwilling to change the rules, then we will once again be heading toward popular reaction.  The cooperative game is breaking down.  The population showed us a hint of that over the AIG bonuses. A volcano that is still today may yet explode tomorrow.

As I watch the stories of this newest revelation on the wonders of  financial innovation, so-called high frequency trading (HFT), I scratch my head and wonder how we got to this place: That most profound mystical deity which we are asked to worship, "the market," can now be rigged so that a few get to see orders beforehand.  As Charles Duhigg wrote last week in the New York Times, "While markets are supposed to ensure transparency by showing orders to everyone simultaneously, a loophole in regulations allows marketplaces like Nasdaq to show traders some orders ahead of everyone else in exchange for a fee."

This "innovation"--employing monster computing power and the apparent ability to buy your way to the front of the line--looks like old fashioned front-running to me.  How can that contribute to the integrity of our marketplace?  Bob Kuttner has written an illuminating piece on this subject.  For my part,  I just hope that our society can demystify (unspin?) this process.   It is time to build a financial system that serves the real economy for the next generation.  To do so, we may need to sweep aside some of the so-called innovations in financial practice that were born of this foolish era of market fundamentalism  and its supervisory and enforcement laxity. Surely there are techniques that we should adopt. Yet in the aftermath of the crisis the burden of proof is on those who advocate them. Where are the benefits to society? What are the costs? To answer those questions, we must come out from the well spun power cloud of Wall Street and ask real questions. Regarding financial innovation,  I am fond of  the lyrics of Michael Stipe.  It is time we start losing our religion.

Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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"I teach contract law at Harvard, and I can't understand half of what these credit card companies say"

Jul 24, 2009

Self-made consumer protection czar turned Congressional Oversight Panel Chair Elizabeth Warren is making a compelling case for the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency.

Okay, compelling is an understatement. The situation is downright scary, and ordinary Americans' need for this kind of protective oversight is nearing desperate.

"The credit market is broken," Warren begins by saying. "It caused the current crisis, is perpetuating the crisis, and will cause more crises in the future--unless we fix it." The reasons are actually pretty simple, and it's about time someone of Warren's stature used plain English to talk to ordinary Americans about what's at stake.

Self-made consumer protection czar turned Congressional Oversight Panel Chair Elizabeth Warren is making a compelling case for the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency.

Okay, compelling is an understatement. The situation is downright scary, and ordinary Americans' need for this kind of protective oversight is nearing desperate.


"The credit market is broken," Warren begins by saying. "It caused the current crisis, is perpetuating the crisis, and will cause more crises in the future--unless we fix it." The reasons are actually pretty simple, and it's about time someone of Warren's stature used plain English to talk to ordinary Americans about what's at stake.

Warren says the problem is that consumers can't compare financial products because the products have become too complicated. If consumers can't make comparisons, they can't tell which product is better and which is worse. "Better products don't get more market share, and real innovation goes south," she says. Listen to Warren's example about Citibank, which tried to end the nasty practice known as universal default--and then, because all the fine print about that was too much for consumers to read, picked it back up again. Why? No one realized Citibank was the better card, so why should Citibank play by tighter rules?

Warren makes one other thing clear: No one is going to get you out of paying the cost of--and the interest on--that $500 shoe splurge. But if you want to splurge on shoes, you should at least be able to do it based on a transparent agreement you understand.

Why does a Harvard professor need to go on YouTube to make a case to the American people? Because the banking industry and its high-powered, highly-paid lobbyists are lining up against the agency. As Warren asks, "Where's the lobby for people who use credit cards, take out mortgages and need car loans?"

Warren explains more in this guest post with our friends at Baseline Scenario.

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Big Banks to American Public: "Screw You"

Jul 21, 2009Marshall Auerback

screw-200Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback wonders why bailed-out banks are getting giddy with dangerous speculation and sky-high bonuses when the rest of us are still dealing with financial chaos. Has the American public had enough?

screw-200Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback wonders why bailed-out banks are getting giddy with dangerous speculation and sky-high bonuses when the rest of us are still dealing with financial chaos. Has the American public had enough?

Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., the three biggest U.S. lenders, collectively reported a total of $10.2 billion in profits for the second quarter that largely relied on investment banking and asset sales to counter growing losses on consumer loans. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which gets almost none of its revenue from retail consumer banking, reporting earnings of $3.44 billion, its highest quarterly result since becoming a public company.

The Goldman Sachs earnings announcement in particular was basically a big "SCREW YOU" to the American public. True, the results appear to show that we have stepped back from the financial abyss. The stock market is up by a third from its March lows. Of more significance than the earnings was Goldman's announcement that it will be awarding individual bonuses in the tens of millions of dollars - which suggests that the bank anticipates little AIG style backlash from a bailout weary public. The very same public whose taxpayer dollars prevented Goldman from going the way of Bear Stearns and Lehman last autumn.

As Mike Lux indicated in the Huffington Post, the underlying message is: See you if you can try to stop us, because we know you can't.

And of course they are right because Obama's economic advisors actually equate a healthy financial sector with a healthy economy. Is this assumption correct?

More than half a century ago, then-General Motors President Charles Wilson (in his Senate confirmation hearings as Eisenhower's Defense Secretary) was misquoted as having said, "What's good for General Motors is good for the country."

That remark came to epitomise the auto giant's arrogance, although what Wilson actually said was, "What is good for the country is good for General Motors, and what's good for General Motors is good for the country" in response to a question as to whether (in his future government capacity as head of the Pentagon) he could ever envisage taking action in the nation's defense interests which might compromise his old company. Wilson acknowledged he could but the quote indicates that he could not envisage circumstances in which the interests of GM would not be coincident with those of the country.

And in the 1950s, when GM - as the world's leading automobile manufacturer, one of the country's largest Fortune 500 employers, working with a strong UAW (headed by Walter Reuther) - was in the vanguard of progressive social legislation and work practices, you could make a reasonable case that Wilson's argument was right.

Not so for Goldman Sachs. Their trading activities add nothing to the real economy. In essence, the company employs a bunch of financial engineers now working with virtually free funding (and guaranteed duration risk, courtesy of the Federal Reserve), who speculate with FDIC guaranteed money for a living: they leverage up the balance sheet and then flip things for a profit. In fact, Goldman's CFO, David Viniar, happily conceded that GS continued to benefit from having virtually no direct exposure to the retail consumer business, despite the fact that the company has now converted itself into a fully fledged commercial bank.

As things stand today, that decision seems sensible. The traditional banking business (you know, the kind which used to make consumer and business loans and hold these loans on the books until maturity - the role which provided the historic rationale for government support of the banks since the days of the Great Depression) continues to perform abysmally. Nine months after accepting more than $200 billion in government rescue funds aimed at preventing a collapse of the financial system, U.S. banks are girding for more losses from mortgages, credit cards and other businesses linked to consumers, while their underwriting and trading units generate revenue at or near all-time highs.

JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon (reputably, Obama's favourite banker), predicted more losses on consumer loans and said credit cards probably wouldn't be profitable next year. The lender boosted its loan loss reserve by $2 billion in the quarter, adding to the $28 billion set aside to cover credit losses as of March 31. And Citigroup's CEO, Vikram Pandit, acknowledged that "Our most significant challenge now remains consumer credit."

Consumer credit would be less of a challenge if the nation's fiscal resources were directed toward boosting aggregate demand, rather than the bottom lines of the banks. Similarly, the economy would be better served if our smart financial engineers worked in more productive sectors--science, industry, health care, alternative energy, etc.

The media reaction to the GS results was most instructive. Rather than celebrating the bank's results as a sign that our economy is on the mend, most publications focused on whether they would be some sort of regulatory backlash. Judging from the reaction of Lawrence Summers - who says that the return to financial health of the banks is a sign that our economy is getting better -neither Goldman, nor any of the other banks, has anything to worry about.

Speaking at The Peterson Institute for International Economics, Summers said that the ability of certain large banks to pay the Treasury back for large infusions of taxpayer money is a "positive and favourable sign."

"It's crucial to recognize that the increased health of financial firms is a positive indicator for the economy," he said.

I would suggest that Mr Summers take a look at the earnings announcements of some of the more representative Main Street companies, before making such a bold pronoucement.

General Electric announced earnings last Friday, with results continue to suggest severe economic contraction. Revenues were down 17% - another double-digit contraction, and this is particularly troublesome in what it says about the global economy, given GE's global reach. Even these results unduly flatter GE. A closer analysis suggests that a full 25% of GE's annualised earnings are a by-product of US government FDIC guarantees on their funding. Reports the Washington Post: "Public records show that GE Capital, the company's massive financing arm, has issued nearly a quarter of the $340 billion in debt backed by the program, which is known as the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP. The government's actions have been 'powerful and helpful' to the company, GE chief executive Jeffrey Immelt acknowledged in December.

GE's finance arm is not classified as a bank. Rather, it worked its way into the rescue program by owning two relatively small Utah banking institutions, illustrating how the loopholes in the U.S. regulatory system are manifest in the government's historic intervention in the financial crisis."

Now, it is impossible to know exactly what the margin is on each issuance GE paper was without closely analysing what the spreads were on each day that they issued FDIC guaranteed paper, but If you just use a 4% spread on that $80bn where Bloomberg says that credit default swap paper of GE Capital is trading at, you get something like savings of over $3 billion per year.

Airlines and hotels also give a better indication of the state of the real economy than the financial sector. The head-in-the-sand management which run the nation's largest airlines and hotels have long been claiming that the disappearance of business travellers from their planes and properties was just a cyclical phenomenon. Some were even insisting that they were seeing those fabled "green shoots" of recovery.

Well, the reality is very different; it is clear a major realignment of business travel is under way. The parent of American Airlines kicked off the second quarter reporting period on Wednesday (July 15), by announcing that its revenue declined 21 per cent and a loss of $390 million. The 16th was Marriott's turn and the hotel giant reported a 20 per cent decline in second-quarter and a 76 per cent slide in profit. And then there are the little anecdotal things: The owner of the posh Four Seasons San Francisco defaulted on a two-year $90 million loan and the now-closed Watergate Hotel in Washington will go on the auction block next week since the owners have defaulted on their loans. Commercial real estate remains the one big leg of the real estate stool yet to collapse.

And premium-class travel plummeted for the 10th consecutive month. According to the airline trade group IATA, year-over-year international premium-class travel fell by 23.6 per cent in May compared to a 22 per cent decline in April and a 19.2 per cent fall in the first quarter.

This tends to put the underlying reality of our economy in better context. In the words of former NY Governor Eliot Spitzer, "We have saved financial services, we have not created a single job. We are still bleeding jobs." And more taxpayer dollars if the latest bonuses approved to de facto bankrupt AIG are sanctioned (again) by the Obama Administration. I suspect that as the year progresses and the promises made by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that asset sales would defray the cost of the AIG rescue are shown to be empty, AIG is going to be forced to go back to the US Treasury for additional funds. Already, the policy guarantees of AIG's two most important insurance underwriting units to various AIG affiliated insurers have effectively rendered these key operating units unsalable, which has led the lead buyer to pull out of the bidding process. It is almost inevitable that there will be a further request for bailout money from the government later this year.

Of course, we supposedly cannot afford yet more bailouts because our President keeps saying that we're running out of money (he said it again, jokingly, at last week's baseball All-Star game). The supposed scarcity of funds, however, only applies to things like health care and social security, not the financial sector. So the later in the year when the inevitable AIG request comes, the more angry will be the response from the Congress and the American people. Yet President Obama, Treasury Secretary Geithner and Lawrence Summers remain utterly oblivious to the neo-populist flames they are fanning by perpetuating these absurd and manifestly unjust policies.

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback is a market analyst and commentator.

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New Pecora Commission will give rise to public anger...which is why elites fear it

Jul 14, 2009Christopher Hayes

anger-200Are suppositions about the complexity of the financial crisis just another way of keeping the real story from public scrutiny? Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Christopher Hayes investigates. 

anger-200Are suppositions about the complexity of the financial crisis just another way of keeping the real story from public scrutiny? Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Christopher Hayes investigates. 

If there's one thing that everyone seems to agree on, it's that the current financial crisis is complicated. There are two problems with this. First, it's not, fundamentally, true. The causes for the crisis are fairly simple when you strip away the artifice and lingo. (Most notably an $8 trillion housing bubble that the financial over-class insisted wasn't a bubble.) But more importantly, the perceived complexity of the issues are being cynically manipulated by those responsible to stem the tide of popular anger and insulate themselves from the wholesale reforms that are necessary.

In a piece on the bailout, Matt Taibbi referred to this posture of condescension as the "eye-roll." As soon as you ask a question -- why did you think housing prices would go up forever? -- you are treated to the eye-roll which is the posture of those in power to the supposed ignorance and idoicy of those attempting to figure out just how they broke the world.

The point is that complexity has an enervating affect on the polity: people can only marshal anger and action about the crisis if they feel that at some basic level they understand it. Before we have a politics, or a broad call for reform, we must have some broadly shared understanding of what went wrong and who's responsible. That's why a new Pecora Commission is so vital.

The original commission was created during the Great Depression as a fact-finding enterprise, to figure out how things could have gone so wrong. The hearings attracted tremendous attention and their uncovering of the self-dealing and corruption on Wall St. laid the ground work for future regulatory reforms.

The Obama administration has attempted to skip first step of this process. They've brought together the relevant stakeholders to craft a plan for financial reform, but have bypassed the necessary step of educating the public on their stake in the reform fight's outcome.

Unless and until the public feels knowledgeable enough to get angry, to fight for specific policies and solutions, the crafting of a new financial order will be left to the existing players. And they are sure to tip the scales in their favor and endanger the entire economy all over again.

If we've learned one thing in this decade, it's how dangerous it is to allow elites to make decisions based solely on conversations they have with themselves. A new Pecora Commission holds out the promise of giving the public a voice.

 

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Christopher Hayes is the Washington, D.C. editor of The Nation and a fellow at the New America Foundation.

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To Effect Change Demand Answers - Bring Back "the Pecora Commission"

Jul 13, 2009David Woolner

legacy-lessons-150Roosevelt historian David Woolner shines a light on today’s issues with lessons from the past.

legacy-lessons-150Roosevelt historian David Woolner shines a light on today’s issues with lessons from the past.

After trillions of dollars in losses on Wall Street, massive bailouts, the collapse of the American auto industry, rising unemployment and a mortgage foreclosure crisis not seen since the Great Depression, it hardly seems surprising that the American people want answers. They want to know why we find ourselves in this mess. They want to know how this crisis happened. They want to know which institutions and practices were to blame. They understand that the severe downturn in the real economy on Main Street is directly linked to the meltdown in the banking and financial sector on Wall Street. They are not fools. They want answers and they want real change, and their patience for equivocation is wearing thin.

Just over three quarters of a century ago, the mood in the country was not much different. The people wanted to know what caused the great crash on Wall Street; what brought on the Great Depression; why the banking system had collapsed; why they were out of a job; and most of all, how could we be sure this would never happen again.

To find the answers to these questions, Congress launched a formal inquiry under the direction of the Senate Committee on Banking and Currency. The hearings began on March 4, 1932, and by the time FDR assumed office one year to the day after the hearing began, they were widely known as "the Pecora Commission," thanks to the relentless energy and zeal of the committee's chief counsel, Ferdinand Pecora.

Pecora, an assistant district attorney for New York, assumed his post in January 1933, after his two predecessors had been dismissed for their lackluster performance and just as the commission was about to wrap up its work. His principle assignment was to write the final report. But after closely examining the records of the hearings, he came to the conclusion that the committee's work was incomplete and as such pressed his Senate employers for an extension of the hearings. By this point FDR had won the election and as President-elect he not only agreed with Pecora's request, but quietly urged him-as well as the committee's chairmen-on. Pecora, who as the son of an immigrant Italian shoe-maker from Sicily represented the antithesis of the New York banking establishment, did not need much prodding. He ploughed into his work and was ruthless in his pursuit of the truth. He thought nothing of grilling such prominent financiers as Richard Whitney or J.P Morgan, Jr.

The revelations that the hearings disclosed under Pecora's leadership, including the fact that J.P. Morgan, Jr. had paid no personal income taxes for the past three years, further outraged the public and helped inspire the sweeping banking and financial reforms of the first months and years of the New Deal. These included the all-important Glass-Steagall Act, the Securities Act, and the Securities and Exchange Act, which led the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1934.

For the most part, the banking and financial establishment vehemently objected to these provisions, even going so far as to say that they would undermine the recovery. But the public, better informed about the causes and consequences of the collapse of the financial sector, made it clear that they wanted change--and they got it.

For nearly seven decades--until they were largely eroded away in the 1990s-the reforms of the early New Deal stood as the bedrock of our financial system. If we are going to try to build a "new financial foundation" shouldn't we be sure we are solid ground before were start? Shouldn't we launch our own Pecora Commission to get to the bottom of what happened and why? Isn't it time the American people received the answers they deserve?

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute.

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In this crisis, government spending isn't likely to do us in. But private savings might.

Jul 2, 2009Marshall Auerback

 

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Beyond the demise of the dollar lurks the central risk to the US economy:  Household savings.  Unless they're accompanied by commensurate government spending.  Sound counterintuitive?  Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback explains in the first of a two-part post.

Over the past few months, the dollar index has declined some 10 percent amidst repeated calls by leading creditor nations such as China for a new global currency.  This has been a recurrent feature of Chinese-American financial diplomacy for several months now, as Beijing frets that their substantial dollar hordes will turn into the new equivalent of the Argentinean peso circa 2001, whilst US Treasury Secretary Geithner regularly kowtows and assures the Chinese monetary authorities that their investments are as good as the gold with which the Americans are no longer obliged to back their reserve currency.

To a large degree we sympathise with the views of former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who argued last month:  “I think the Chinese are a little disingenuous to say, ‘Now isn’t it so bad that we hold all these dollars.’  They hold all these dollars because they chose to buy the dollars, and they didn’t want to sell the dollars because they didn’t want to depreciate their currency. It was a very simple calculation on their part, so they shouldn’t come around blaming it all on us.”

Volcker is right.  China is largely reaping the consequences of a mercantilist strategy in which a large proportion of their output was exported to the US in exchange for US financial claims.  The consequences of this policy were made clear on a monthly basis as billions more dollars were added to the country’s foreign exchange reserves.  It is therefore more than a touch hypocritical for Beijing to complain about the consequences of a policy which they actively encouraged over a ten-year period, during the which the RMB (the local Chinese currency) was devalued by more than 50 percent against the greenback.  A very easy solution to mitigate the impact of “dollar hegemony” would be for the Chinese (or the Europeans) to buy more American goods and hold the resultant financial claims in a different currency. 

Of course, from an American perspective, the ongoing concern is that perpetual reliance on the Chinese to fund our deficits is inherently unstable, in effect allegedly placing the US in the position of being a “Blanche Dubois economy,” forever dependent on the kindness of strangers. 

We think this is predicated on a mistaken paradigm, which many economists seem determined to employ.  The reality is that we are no longer operating under a fixed exchange rate regime or a quasi gold standard (much as some countries curiously want to recreate this in spite of the fact that billions of dollars of gold are vastly insufficient to create backing for trillions of dollars of financial claims).  We have a flexible exchange rate regime, where capital inflows have to equal the current account deficit. Dollars flow out through the trade deficit (which is a large part of the current account deficit) as the US spends more on imports than it earns on exports. Those dollars are net saved by our trading partners and they are reinvested in dollar denominated assets. If portfolio preferences of foreign net savers shift away from holding US dollar denominated assets, asset prices have to adjust until they are willing holders of the dollars they earn in trade (that is, interest rates must rise, equity prices must fall, until expected returns are attractive enough for foreigners to maintain their US dollar holdings). Also, if foreign net savers of dollars favor particular assets, like US Treasury bonds, for a variety of institutional reasons, then relative US asset prices can also be influenced.

The money that flows out through the current account deficit flows back in through the capital account. For a nation with a flexible exchange rate, there is no change in the money supply from trade activity. This is just the opposite of a fixed exchange rate system, of which gold based systems are one type, and that is why James Grant advocates leaving flexible exchange rate systems in the dustbin of history. In a fixed exchange rate system, money balances of trade deficit nations are drained off to the trade surplus nation, and the trade deficit can only be run until the existing money balances of the trade deficit are exhausted.

Neither foreign private or public entities can create US dollar reserves out of thin air. That is the charge of the US central bank and commercial banks. Foreigners have to earn dollars from sales of goods or assets to US dollar holders.  So it seems to me that the imbalances you describe are almost a necessity as far as the US goes.

That means the ultimate source of the credit to support US trade deficit spending could not have come from abroad as some have alleged. Rather, credit was created in the US as households engaged in mortgage equity withdrawal during the housing boom, and spent more than they earned. Neither foreign savings nor foreign capital inflows were required to create this credit. All that was required was a household willing to borrow with identifiable equity in their home, and a bank willing to expand its balance sheet, with new home equity loans creating new deposits out of thin air. The loan is made, which shows up on the banks asset side of the balance sheet, and the homeowner has a credit line it can draw down, which shows up on the liability side of the bank balance sheet. Nobody here or abroad needed to save beforehand for this money deposit and credit loan to be created.

So what happens when the housing bubble bursts? Equity in homes shrinks, mortgage equity withdrawal shrinks, bank balance sheet growth reverses, household deficit spending reverses as they begin to net save, the trade deficit begins to turn, foreign net saving is reduced, and foreign capital inflows to the US are also reduced. The trade deficit is the twin of the household deficit spending, and the household deficit spending was made possible by credit expansion by US financial institutions on the back of the housing bubble.

In other words, foreign saving and capital inflows are at the tail of the dog, not the head. The only way the tail wags the dog is if foreign portfolio preference shift suddenly or persistently against US dollar denominated assets or specific US asset classes, in which case asset prices must adjust to keep foreign investors willing holders of US dollar denominated assets. We must always be careful to distinguish between shifts in preferences with regards to existing holdings, and shifts in saving out of income flows. The two are not the same, but they often get conflated.

That is not to say the threat of foreign investors dumping US assets isn't a danger, but it may not be the central risk, which as far as I can see remains the concerns of people who fret about today's imbalances. To me, the central risk is that the US private sector is shifting to a net saving position in a dramatic way for the obvious reasons - loss of wealth, precautionary saving given recession, etc. Arguably, this needs to happen if households are going to pay down debt and reduce debt burdens, and if they are realizing capital gains are not guaranteed.  

The risk of this necessary adjustment arises because if the private sector moves to a net saving position - spending less than it earns - the income level in the US will fall unless the trade deficit turns quickly enough, and unless the fiscal deficit expands commensurately.  In other words, we should be applauding this increased fiscal deficit because the alternative would be disastrous, not just for the US, but the world as a whole.

For every net saver, there must be a net deficit spender, or else the net saving cannot be accomplished without an adjustment of incomes. This is where the so-called paradox of thrift comes from, as you well know. If incomes fall, debt defaults and delinquencies will increase more dramatically, and there is a good chance of heading into a debt deflation spiral, a la Irving Fisher.

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster Marshall Auerback is a market analyst and commentator.

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Elizabeth Warren on TARP, Taxpayers and Shattered Trust

Jul 1, 2009

Professor Elizabeth Warren, Chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, talks to Yahoo! Finance's "Tech Ticker" about the realities on Wall Street and how taxpayer money has changed the game.

Source: Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker: Americans' Trust "Shattered" & CEOs Still in Denial, Elizabeth Warren Says and Elizabeth Warren: Americans Aren't Here to Serve the Banks, They're Here to Serve Us

Professor Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, talks to Yahoo! Finance's "Tech Ticker" about the realities on Wall Street and how taxpayer money has changed the game.




Source: Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker: Americans' Trust "Shattered" & CEOs Still in Denial, Elizabeth Warren Says and Elizabeth Warren: Americans Aren't Here to Serve the Banks, They're Here to Serve Us

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