GOP Budget Proposals: Perpetual War, Yes. Social Security, No.

Feb 10, 2011Chuck Spinney

money-question-150The sinister link between waging war and fighting poverty explained by a former Pentagon analyst.

money-question-150The sinister link between waging war and fighting poverty explained by a former Pentagon analyst.

Politico is an inside-the-beltway newsletter that revels in political gossip -- the kind of new media phenomena that reflects the self-inflating, self-referencing character of behavior in the Hall of Mirrors that is Versailles on the Potomac. This outlet receives funding by right leaning contributors, but that said, Politico is a barometer of sorts -- in this case of bad ju ju.

Note, for example -- its description in a recent post of how pressure is building to whack the Pentagon's budget. It will be interesting to see how the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex (MICC) will wiggle out of the squeeze described in last few graphs. For what it is worth, my guess is that the MICC will move to protect its hi-tech cold-war rice bowls at the expense of its people and readiness. But we are in the middle of at least two wars -- which of course will generate effective counter-pressures, because we "must to protect the troops!" -- and so in the end very little will happen beyond a few cosmetic swipes. This is one of the benefits of perpetual small wars or the perpetual threat of small wars (explained more fully in my essay, The Domestic Roots of Perpetual War. A more extensive discourse on the MICC's game will be found in the soon to be released anthology, The Pentagon Labyrinth, which will be freely available in hard copy as well as electronic form).

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So, get ready for a GOP run on Social Security (and Medicare?), which conveniently is not even mentioned in the Politico "report." Obama made Social Security more vulnerable with his recent "temporary" 2% cut in withholding tax. My guess is that little will happen to Social Security in the near term, but the "phony solvency issue" was strengthened by the cut, and we should expect it to be reinforced endlessly in the looming political debate. Liberal economists who recently welcomed Obama's tax cut by arguing that it will clarify the real "pay as you go" nature of economic debate over Social Security may be in for a nasty surprise.

So, without saying so, this superficial report helps us understand how war between the MICC and Social Security is being joined, where the politics of fear (national insecurity versus personal insecurity) will be the weapons of choice. Fasten your seat belt.

Chuck Spinney is an American former military analyst for the Pentagon and has been a fierce critic of wasteful defense spending.

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The Egyptian Revolt Goes Back to its Roots -- in the Soil

Feb 8, 2011Jon Rynn

egypt-flag-wall-150A change in agriculture, industry and employment must accompany a change in government.

egypt-flag-wall-150A change in agriculture, industry and employment must accompany a change in government.

Egypt, which was once the breadbasket for the Roman Empire, is now one of a growing number of food basket cases. A thriving center of trade and industry centuries ago, it is now marked by unemployment and dependence on tourism. Instead of dealing with these mounting problems, the Mubarak regime has swept everything under the rug and skimmed billions from the country. No wonder the population is in revolt.

Egypt has always been dependent on the Nile river, which was the foundation of what may have been humanity’s most ecologically sustainable agricultural system. In dry regions like Egypt and the Middle East, and even in areas with inadequate rainfall like much of the American West and northern China, irrigation is required to produce a large crop, normally of grains like wheat or rice. The problem, which is becoming more and more ominous, is that irrigation can destroy the soil and water on which agriculture depends. Too much water for too long a period in the wrong kind of soil, and the soil becomes salty, which doomed another ancient center of Middle Eastern civilization: the Sumerians. Or the water for irrigation might use up ancient reservoirs of water called fossil aquifers. This depletion is threatening food production from the American plains to India to China.

The Nile, on the other hand, always flooded the Nile valley annually, thus depositing nutrients and water at just the right time to grow plants but receding at just the right time to prevent too much salt from accumulating. It did this, that is, until the Aswan Dam was built in the 1960s, which prevents the Nile from flooding. The benefit is that the flow of water is dependable, because the Nile would often over-flood or under-irrigate, and the Dam can be used for electrical generation. The problem is that many areas are now becoming salty, the nutrients, or silt, are building up behind the Dam, and now Egypt is dependent on fossil fuel-based fertilizers for its agriculture.

Even with the Dam, Egypt has become the world’s biggest importer of grain, requiring foreign grain for 40% of its needs. Since it doesn’t have much industry, it has to trade tourism and some fossil fuels for this grain, and as a result, even university graduates have a 30 percent unemployment rate and only 3 percent of the population consumes 50 percent of goods. Meanwhile, instead of creating an industrial base that could be used to produce the goods to trade for food, the current regime either takes the money itself or spends it on useless military equipment (although much of that money comes from the US, but that’s another story). Egypt therefore has become dependent on the global economic system for its survival; it needs the food, industrial goods and fossil fuels from the global system, but it has very little to give back. This is one reason that 3 million Egyptians work outside the country, sending back badly needed money to families at home.

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It is quite possible that if the Aswan Dam was actually torn down and a different water storage and drainage system was constructed, and if Egypt took advantage of the massive amount of sunlight that falls on the deserts near the Nile to generate its electricity from solar power, it could create a sustainable economy. It would have to do all of this, just to add another wrinkle, while it created a sustainable plan for the use of the Nile’s waters.

At least 80 percent of the water that reaches Egypt actually comes from Ethiopia, where most of the Nile originates, and most of the rest comes from Sudan. There has been a long and varied history of tension among these nations concerning the use of the Nile’s rivers, as told by Steven Solomon in his book “Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilization”. So an ecological solution to Egypt’s problems requires coordination with its neighbors to the south. On the other hand, if it is to industrialize it would probably be greatly aided if it partnered with Israel and with other Middle Eastern nations, all of which have similar problems. Together, they could all create a Middle Eastern common market, to use a term from the European Union’s past. This idea of an integrated, industrializing Middle East was the vision of Yitzhak Rabin, the Prime Minister of Israel who was cut down by a fundamentalist Israeli.

I don’t think that the current regime can pull off this balancing act. Mubarak’s choice for vice president, Omar Suleiman, has been directing the notorious “rendition” program whereby people that the United States wants to torture are “taken care of." This policy led to the false information that provided the “proof” of an Al Qaeda-Iraq connection; as James Ridgeway explains, “our loyal ally Egypt provided the fake information used by the United States to justify going to war in Iraq." The regime is so accustomed to using force and violence as a means of governing that it hatched the plot that fizzled to have “pro-Mubarak supporters” literally beat the protesters out of Tahrir square. As the New York Times explained, “Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt has long functioned as a state where wealth bought political power and political power bought great wealth." A regime based on corruption and violence cannot pull off the feats of industrializing, spreading the wealth, working with its neighbors, and most importantly, insuring that its unique ecosystems survive. It will require a regime that has real legitimacy, one that is elected democratically.

Egypt is not the only country facing the problem of an ecologically unsustainable path, the need for industrialization, the replacing of fossil fuels, and in many cases, the need for democratization. As Lester Brown has pointed out recently, there is a global food crisis emerging. It is being driven by the abuse of agricultural ecosystems and water; by using grain for ethanol and for livestock; by the inefficient use of water; and oh yes, by climate change. Let us hope that Egypt's example will not only spur change in the Middle East but create change around the entire planet.

Jon Rynn is the author of Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The power to rebuild the American middle class, available from Praeger Press. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the City University of New York.

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Refuting the Reagan Legacy: Progressive Taxation is the Key to Prosperity

Feb 7, 2011Frank L. Cocozzelli

tax-chalkboard-150After marking Reagan's 100th birthday this weekend, a blueprint for how reclaim the narrative about the tax code he distorted thirty years ago.

tax-chalkboard-150After marking Reagan's 100th birthday this weekend, a blueprint for how reclaim the narrative about the tax code he distorted thirty years ago.

Many of us were disenchanted with President Obama’s compromise that kept the Bush tax cuts in place until 2012. But while it's easy to fault the president for failing to fight for increasing the tax rate for those earning over $250,000, the reason the GOP prevailed goes well beyond the intestinal fortitude of the current administration. This was a capitulation thirty years in the making.

Ever since the beginnings of the Reagan presidency, Americans have been bombarded by conservative mantras that consistently bemoan the supposed evils of progressive taxation. It is impugned with the pejorative description “confiscatory” or derided as a system that “penalizes success.” And at the heart of this message is an appeal to an atomistic impulse that constantly -- and needlessly -- pits the interest of the self against the interests of we as an American people.

But beyond refuting these stock conservative narratives, liberals have failed to articulate cogent arguments that frame progressive taxation in economically efficient and morally authoritative terms. The permanent extension of the Bush era tax rates is looming as a central issue in the 2012 presidential election. It is therefore not only critical that several foundational arguments be put forth in opposition, but that they also be part of a wider argument in support of progressive taxation as a vital component of wealth creation for both the individual and society.

Below are a few memes that if successfully injected into the public discourse would help transform the tax issue from being a losing discussion of confiscation into a winning question of basic fairness.

Progressive Taxation As An Antidote to Miserliness

As was the case during the Great Depression, we are currently experiencing an economic crisis of abundance, not poverty. There is great wealth out there, but it is increasingly being concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. Yes, uncertainty plays a role in decreased investment activity. But so does the signature behavior of the miser: hoarding.

Large corporate entities are hoarding profits to pay bloated dividends and executive salaries or simply sitting on them instead of investing back in their businesses or paying their workers a better wage (thus stimulating demand). This is the scenario of savings exceeding investing that the economist John Maynard Keynes warned us about. Only government has the ability to prevent corporate miserliness. It alone can unfreeze credit and get capital circulating again.

When such hoarding takes place, the threat of taxation is a handy device to get money circulating again. A truly progressive system should present such hoarders a choice: either invest a portion of those profits in non-executive salaries and purchasing equipment or pay a premium tax.

The tax compromise of 2010 was a lost opportunity. While the GOP was harping about the national debt, Obama should have used progressive taxation to call the opposition on its campaign of misinformation. Instead of caving in, the president should have used the bully pulpit of his office to explain the economic inefficiency of extending the lower tax rates for our wealthiest citizens. We give tax cuts to those making less than $250,000 because they are more likely to spend it, while those earning above that income line (and especially those earning seven figures and more) are more likely to sock it away, taking money out of circulation. There is little or no stimulus effect to giving millionaires a four percentage point tax break; there is no economic benefit offsetting the widening national deficit that results.

The frame of the miser is a powerful image. More importantly, it is one that is easy to understand. It is Scrooge before his Christmas Eve epiphany; Henry Potter trying to shut down the old Bailey Brothers Building and Loan Association. More importantly, the concept is well grounded in Keynesian economics, defined by the master economist as “unreasonable but insistent inhibitions against acts of expenditure as such.” Indeed, it is a highly emotional term. But unlike many of the inflammatory epithets hurled by the right (“socialist,” “Marxist”), it is an authentic economic term of art.

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Equalizing Sacrifice

Perhaps the weakest link in the right’s tax argument is the idea that progressive taxation is based upon a system of confiscating wealth from the useful only to be given to a lazy rabble. This is nothing more than the old tactic of divide and conquer, injecting an “us versus them” aspect into the discourse.

Last year when some of the already wealthy heard that their federal tax rate should be adjusted a mere four percentage points up to 40%, they overreacted by complaining about the costs of nannies and gardeners. In 2003, Michael Novak tapped into this high-end sentiment. He equated progressive taxation with "confiscation" while quite recently his fellow neoconservative Robert P. George argued that taxes must remain low for moral reasons. Both arguments perfectly echo the conservative claim that higher tax rates on the wealthy constitute "a penalty for success."

This idea has gained more traction than many of us would like to believe. Just recently I spoke with two friends who repeated the claim when I suggested that the well-to-do could handle a modest increase on their federal tax rate -- especially those corporate CEOs who either hoard their companies' profits instead of investing in new equipment or, better yet, workers' salaries.

But such notions as "confiscation" and "penalizing success" have little to do with the realities we face as a people. "The goal of progressive taxes," historian Harlan Beckley observed of the economist Monsignor John A. Ryan’s argument on the subject, "…was to equalize sacrifices, not to achieve equality. Taxes should never be so progressive as to discourage socially useful activity or deny rewards for productive efficiency." To put things into a contemporary context, imposing a 40% tax rate upon an unmarried CEO earning seven figures a year is a bit more just than a rate of 35% -- especially when a married laborer earning $35,000 a year pays a federal tax rate of 25%. Even at the higher rate, the former should have more than enough superfluous income left over to meet his daily needs.

And a 40% top federal rate is far from onerous. Writing in the early 1960s when the maximum federal tax rate exceeded 90%, the conservative writer Willmoore Kendall declared that if the top bracket were to be lowered to 40%, it would allow anyone to become "smacking rich." Kendall’s words should be part and parcel of any argument in support of progressive taxation.

But beyond admissions made against interest by conservative thinkers, the original arguments in support of progressive taxation are as valid today as they were almost a century ago. Again, as Monsignor Ryan observed in 1916:

The reasonableness of the principle of progression has been well stated by Professor [Edwin R. A.] Seligman: "All individual wants vary in intensity, from the absolutely necessary wants of mere subsistence to the less pressing wants which can be satisfied by pure luxuries. Taxes in so far as they rob us of the means of satisfying our wants, impose a sacrifice upon us. But the sacrifice involved in giving up a portion of what enables us to satisfy our necessary wants is very different from the sacrifice involved in giving up what is necessary to satisfy our less urgent wants."

It is not merely the percentage of taxes paid that defines justice, but the payment in proportion to wealth created by each individual after which the basic necessities of life have been first satisfied. The working poor and the lower echelons of the middle classes should not be forced to pay a “flat tax” rate equivalent to wealthier members of our society; the overwhelming majority of the former’s income goes to basic needs such as food, clothing and shelter. They have little or no superfluous income. Thus, their tax burden should be the lightest.

Those who espouse the evisceration of such useful taxation are frankly arguing on behalf of an oligarchic few. It must be pointed out that there are top tax bracket Americans such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and others who understand the discrepancy in sacrifice reduced tax rates for the wealthiest of us produces. With this in mind, those who call for flat rate taxation (Steve Forbes immediately comes to mind) would also be those whose contribution to the common good would be decreased. At the same time, the benefits they derive from that same common good remains unchanged: greater access to power, police and military power protection of their higher amount of treasure, and greater economic opportunity. It is nothing less than the notion that certain individual citizens give less simply because of their higher income status.

The complaint about the cost of nannies and elite private schools for their children not withstanding, progressive taxation does alleviate burdensome national debt; it does finance job-creating infrastructure construction; it does control inflation and it does prevent the concentration of economic power in the hands of the few -- all while expanding the ability of more Americans to prosper.

Indeed, the dogmatic opposition to progressive taxation is the economic mindset that elevates the wealth of a few fortunate individuals while the other 98 percent of their countrymen have their right to create wealth impeded. That, in no uncertain terms, is not the American way.

Frank L. Cocozzelli writes a weekly column on Roman Catholic neoconservatism at Talk2Action.org and is contributor to Dispatches from the Religious Left: The Future of Faith and Politics in America. A director of the Institute for Progressive Christianity, he is working on a book on American liberalism.

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Breaking Records: High Pay on Wall Street, Low Wages on Main Street

Feb 3, 2011Bryce Covert

While Wall Street fat cats give themselves million dollar bonuses, the rest of us are more and more squeezed.

Last year sucked, didn't it? The recession dragged on, unemployment kept rising, wages fell... It turns out, though, there was one place where the streets were lined with gold: Wall Street.

While Wall Street fat cats give themselves million dollar bonuses, the rest of us are more and more squeezed.

Last year sucked, didn't it? The recession dragged on, unemployment kept rising, wages fell... It turns out, though, there was one place where the streets were lined with gold: Wall Street.

Yup, pay on Wall Street broke a record last year, hitting $135 billion -- up 5.7%. Revenue for firms is up to $417 billion, another record, rising 1%. And executives are seeing fit to give themselves a big pat on the back for that achievement, whether their firm saw such profits or not -- million dollar back pats. Even though Goldman Sachs' earnings are down 37% from 2009, pay is way up: head honcho Lloyd Blankfein will get $13.2 million in compensation for 2010. He's also getting a raise, with his base pay going from $600,000 to $2 million, and the base pay for all 470 partners will go up, the first time it's been raised since the company went public in 1999. Blankfein's not the only one seeing green: Blackrock CEO Laurence Fink is getting a bonus of $13 million, one of the largest for this season. But let's not forget: bankers still aren't getting paid enough.

Times are great! If the banking sector, which supposedly does so much to grease the gears of the economy, is doing so well, we must be too, right? Not quite. Average wages in 2009 (the last full year data is available) fell 1.5%. Adjusted for inflation, medium family income declined 5%, from $52,388 to $49,777, from its peak in 1999 to 2009.

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As outrageous as all of this is, it's really nothing new. Financial sector pay has been outpacing what the rest of us make for a long time -- ever since, surprise surprise, 1980. The recent FCIC report included this graph (h/t David Frum):

fcic-compensation-chart

Hmm. Wonder what could possibly have coincided politically with that departure point? Could it be the demise of Glass-Steagall? Free market obsession? Declining union power? Nah. It's probably just a coincidence.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor at New Deal 2.0.

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The Millennial State of the Union

Jan 31, 2011Hilary Doe

flag-150Young people are taking matters into their own hands and working to effect change across a number of issues.

flag-150Young people are taking matters into their own hands and working to effect change across a number of issues.

This past Sunday would have been Franklin D. Roosevelt's 129th birthday. During this jobless recovery, we should remember that, beyond simply being the 32nd President of the United States, FDR was a fearless leader who redefined the role of government during our country's darkest hour. How? Roosevelt used an active government to create jobs, provide relief to disadvantaged citizens, build our country's infrastructure, win World War II, and, more broadly, address the needs of the American people. He advanced a values-laden, progressive vision for the everyday American.

Thousands of young people across the country are carrying on his legacy by putting forth their own progressive vision. The Roosevelt Institute Campus Network is releasing a New Deal for the Millennial America -- a blueprint for the progressive future that we, young people born between 1980 and 2000, are determined to inherit. Each generation designs its own path, and each American generation redefines the American dream. With the launch of the Campus Network's Blueprint for the Millennial America, the Millennial Generation is declaring their vision for America's future and imploring our leaders to take note, grab a shovel, and start building it with us.

So what will 2040 look if we have our way?
Over the past year, the Campus Network convened thousands of students from across the country in Think2040 conversations, asking them to define their vision, values, and priorities for our shared future. The results were compiled in our Blueprint for Millennial America. The report details how we plan to change the system from inside, employ ourselves, think long-term, and create a more equal, accessible, empowered, and community-minded 2040 America. Want specifics? In the Millennial America, our priorities are:

1. Educational Attainment

Our generation sees educational attainment as the key to opportunity and abundance. And we recognize that to remain competitive in the Next American Economy we will have to out-educate the rest of the world. Providing equal access to quality education is also a pathway to closing our country's growing wealth disparity. We need to improve K-12 education and increase college access and affordability to do that.

The best part? Millennials have already started moving toward this goal. Innovative young people, like Roosevelt Campus Network alum Kirsten Hill, have envisioned and implemented student-generated education programs like the SILA project. SILA (Students Improving Literacy Abound) is a university-partnered reading program in New Orleans that has paired over 100 Tulane students acting as mentors with second and third graders to decrease the achievement gap and increase literacy rates.

2. Green Living, Working, and Innovating

We recognize that to build a green economy, our generation will have to win the energy race with an effort that mirrors the Apollo program of the 1960s. The cost of fossil fuels is going to increase as countries like China and India compete for limited resources. We need to be innovation hawks and invest in green technology and infrastructure now to ensure that the windmills, solar panels, and fuel cells we use tomorrow are manufactured in the United States.

We need to cultivate healthier food systems. By supporting urban agriculture and other alternatives we can secure access to fresh and healthy food for all Americans. This will increase the security of our communities by ensuring that food comes from local sources.

Millennials aren't leaving their future to chance. We're creating a greener America today with a call for proposals to ensure our energy security and local movements to build community gardens, like the effort led at Arizona State University by Joshua Judd and other Roosevelt members.

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3. Wellness and Coverage

Our American Dream is more often a loft in the city with diverse people, food, culture, work, and a hybrid than a McMansion in the suburbs. It includes our wellness, and this New Deal for the Millennial America includes the guarantee that livable cities provide access to healthy food for all American people. The Millennial Generation -- the most under-insured of any alive right now -- also demands insurance coverage for all and innovative efforts to ensure access to preventative care.

We'll get there by 2040, starting with groundbreaking efforts to provide care to some of our most vulnerable. A Roosevelt member from Colorado College, David Silver, for example, is helping to pave the way to health care access for rural American using excess T.V. bandwidth to provide preventative care via "telehealth."

4. Entrepreneurship and a Social Safety Trampoline

Why are Millennials moving back to the forgotten places in America: post-industrial centers like Detroit, New Orleans, and Cleveland? So they can create a sweeping impact and experiment with new forms of entrepreneurship and social innovation. They are organizing employee-owned businesses, starting co-ops, and, in the case of Roosevelt alums Joe Shure and Rohan Mathew, creating successful nonprofits like the Intersect Fund to empower would-be entrepreneurs through microloans and start-up support.

But in order to pursue our innovative ideas, we need security; a flexible social safety net. And we need financial institutions that are responsive to their communities. Wages have stagnated. Benefits have decreased. As government protection of our social insurance has been cut over the last 30 years, the income inequality in our country has also significantly increased. Millennials demand equal access and equal opportunity. Our safety net should inject funding into the system when it's needed, provide retraining opportunities, ensure health care and unemployment insurance, and, instead of catching people near the bottom -- like a net -- function like a trampoline and bounce everyone back into high-functioning roles in society.

To reduce the socioeconomic gap in this country, everyone should pay taxes on their income, even if they make a lot of it -- their fair share. By just repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans, we could move substantially closer to lowering the barrier to entrepreneurship by investing in a strong safety net and providing this essential economic security to all Americans.

5. America as a World Super-Partner

Millennials want the United States to continue to act as a global leader. But they envision the U.S. as a "super-partner" in world affairs. They favor a proactive U.S. foreign policy that stresses the use of "smart power" to achieve global security through active diplomacy, efficient development, and sharing defense responsibilities with its allies. Young people are already working to prove the effectiveness of this approach. Roosevelt member Jacob Helberg, for example, is working directly with Haitian NGOs to implement his idea to build a micro-community in Haiti reflective of the best practices learned by other nations.

If you're skeptical that our generation can accomplish all of this, we're working to prove you wrong. Because we're committed to fiscal responsibility in addition to the list of priorities above, we recognize that our priorities have the burden of cost, and, at a time when the nation is locked in heated debate over the budget, we're answering the call. While organizations from across the spectrum are rushing to put forth their plans, the Campus Network is designing our own ‘Budget for Millennial America' as we speak.

Want to help?
The greatest lesson to be learned from examining this list of Millennial values, priorities, and initiatives is that young people nationwide are prepared to design the innovative solutions and campaign for the change required to achieve our vision.

Do you have your own ideas for change? Contact one of our student policy strategists so that you can get involved in our national policy initiatives. Get published in our 10ideas series. You can even get paid to work with us over the summer in Washington, DC or Chicago through our Roosevelt Summer Academy program. We're designing and achieving the future that we want to inherit.

Thanks for paving the way, FDR. Happy Birthday, and we hope we're making you proud.

Hilary Doe is the National Director of the Roosevelt Institute Campus Network. Reese Neader is the Roosevelt Campus Network's Policy Director.

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Detroit: An American Ghetto Where a House Costs Less Than a Car

Jan 12, 2011Bryce Covert

What used to be a symbol of middle class prosperity now lies in ruins.

Detroit's history tells the story of the rise of manufacturing and economic prowess in the US. It is the story of the American middle class, built on the back of a booming industrial sector. But today it's become an omen of the struggles for middle- and lower-class Americans and the manufacturing jobs they once relied on. And the city itself is turning into a ghetto.

What used to be a symbol of middle class prosperity now lies in ruins.

Detroit's history tells the story of the rise of manufacturing and economic prowess in the US. It is the story of the American middle class, built on the back of a booming industrial sector. But today it's become an omen of the struggles for middle- and lower-class Americans and the manufacturing jobs they once relied on. And the city itself is turning into a ghetto.

Convenient to transportation on rivers and rail, Detroit became a hub of industry as far back as the late 1800s, leading to a nouveau riche class of wealthy industrialists. But its real claim to fame would come when Henry Ford piggybacked on the city's established carriage trade and built his first car manufacturing plant in 1899. Ford was the epitome of an American self-made man -- the son of an immigrant farmer who left to apprentice with a machinist and go on to become an engineer and an industrialist. Soon after Ford's plant opened up, GM, Chrysler and American Motors would follow suit, and the city quickly became the world's car capital. The booming automobile industry sucked in labor, and the city's ranks swelled from 265,000 in 1900 to over 1.5 million in 1930. With the workers -- who came from the South as well as Europe -- came labor disputes and the rise of union activism. It became the fourth largest city in the country. This period was the city's gilded age, during which skyscrapers, mansions, and historic buildings all cropped up, as well as apartment buildings aimed at middle class workers from the factories. This was the American Dream.

Now look at the city today: it is literally falling apart. It has shed roughly 1 million residents since the 1950s, and as the 2010 census showed Michigan was the only state to lose population, some analysts estimated that it would also show a drop to 150,000 people living in Detroit, down from 951,000 in 2000. The median price of a home sold in Detroit in 2008 was $7,500 -- less than the price of a car -- and the proportion of vacant homes to occupied ones almost tripled since 1999 to 28%. The city's unemployment rate just fell, but from a dismal 13.3% to a still-pretty-dismal 12%. Median household income dropped nearly 25% to $28,730 between 1999-2008. The auto crisis allowed the big car companies to force two-tier payment systems in GM and Chrysler plants and labor's influence is taking a huge blow in the recession. And those beautiful buildings built with booming auto profits lie in shambles, which look straight off the set of a post-apocalyptic movie. (I highly recommend clicking through and taking in these devastating, striking photos.)

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Living in this city is tantamount to living in a lawless state. Just ask Johnette Barham, who stuck it out through more than 10 burglaries and break-ins before her place and most of what she owned were torched. "I was constantly being targeted in a way I couldn't predict, in a way that couldn't be controlled by the police," she told the WSJ. The empty houses that surround her can no longer act as a buffer against crime, and she and many other middle-class people are fleeing the city in droves. Wealthy neighborhoods have resorted to hiring private security firms to police their streets. Why? The Detroit Police Department is down about 700 officers, according to Warren Evans, who was appointed police chief in July 2009. There's no one he can send to take care of crimes like petty theft when they're working round the clock to bring down homicide rates.

It's not just the police force that's feeling the pain from budget cuts. As fires raged through the city in September, which destroyed 85 homes and structures, the level of damage was directly connected to cutbacks. They've led to 8-12 fire company "brown outs" each day, meaning the companies are temporarily unavailable to fight fires, and one of the decommissioned stations was reported to be closest to a neighborhood that went up in flames. The city's public school system is considering a GM-style restructuring to deal with its $327 million deficit and avoid bankruptcy. As Mayor Dave Bing grapples with the city's $300 million budget gap, he's looking to cut services in the emptier parts of town in an effort to shrink the city, which means many areas will be left without basic services such as water and sewage. On top of the cuts at the city and state level, cuts at the federal level also imperil Detroit's economy -- take Defense Secretary Robert Gates' recent announcement to cut the defense budget, which will mean layoffs in Michigan defense companies. Not to mention that just Friday Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve won't be helping out any state or local governments saddled with debt. All of these trends are likely to continue or worsen as the recession drags on and cutting budgets and services is in vogue.

And while Detroit's troubles are gruesome, it's not the only city in America that's falling to shambles. Take Baltimore. Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Tom Ferguson recently took to the city's streets to explain how it's caught in a housing Catch-22. When cheap loans pushed on the population went sour, they brought down many communities' housing prices, and now without a steady tax base no one is interested in making loans to a city that is desperate for funds. It's no wonder Ferguson tells this story outside boarded up houses.

And it's no wonder that images of Detroit ended up on a blog called Ghetto America. Once our pride and joy, Detroit now reminds us of how far off track our economy has gone and how downtrodden the middle class is. As Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson said to me:

Detroit is the canary in the coalmine of America's harsh, unbridled economic adjustment. It can happen anywhere with a violence and swiftness that is only tolerated by suppressing these horrid images and neglecting the human consequences. Such an unnecessary loss of grand creations.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor at New Deal 2.0.

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American Train Wreck: Hope Fades as Political System Fails

Jan 10, 2011Marshall Auerback

How can Obama rally the nation in the midst of a growing political crisis?

Historically, our elected leaders have risen to the occasion in moments of national trauma. President Bill Clinton conspicuously did so after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. But it is unclear whether the current president can respond in comparable fashion, particularly since his cynical (and now patently insincere) embrace of the mantra of change also fueled much of the anger now permeating the country.

How can Obama rally the nation in the midst of a growing political crisis?

Historically, our elected leaders have risen to the occasion in moments of national trauma. President Bill Clinton conspicuously did so after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. But it is unclear whether the current president can respond in comparable fashion, particularly since his cynical (and now patently insincere) embrace of the mantra of change also fueled much of the anger now permeating the country.

Symptomatic of the President's failed vision are the appointments of Gene Sperling and Bill Daley. Both figures represent more conclusive evidence (as if we needed more) that the progressive agenda is currently dead. Shipping in a JP Morgan executive to be White House Chief of Staff, as Obama did with Bill Daley, isn't a cause of any of this. It's just a nice symbol of what our political culture has become -- now more than ever in the era of "change you can believe in." It is, as Roger Hodge eloquently phrased it, "the mendacity of hope." Along with the appointment of Jacob Lew, Sperling and Daley simply represent the other side of the revolving door. That's the door that sent Peter Orszag to his multi-million-dollar a year reward at Citi for his 18 months in an administration that lavished the bank will all sorts of generous gifts and subsidies from taxpayers, many of which continue to this day.

The public essentially made its bed in the midterm elections, as irrational as that response might have seemed to many. The Republicans will consequently hold court for a while. They will determine the agenda for the media. Meanwhile, the electorate has become irrelevant again because they don't write checks. Yes, the polls will show that they don't like anything their elected Republican officials want to do. But so what? What can they do or say? MSNBC will cite the polls. The Republicans won't care. The banksters won't care. They've already won.

The "two Americas" theme will continue. Stock market participants won't be particularly disturbed by growing anger and hopelessness in the country because, by and large, all they care about are the markets and their bonus checks. The electorate's increasing dissatisfaction will be a side show. They voted (at least some of them did) and now have to live with the consequences of that vote.

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Meanwhile, Obama will try to govern via more Clinton-style "triangulation" and "compromise" (although "compromise" is actually a charitable way of looking at it, since he has already capitulated to Wall Street). He wants to bring big business into his administration. Why? Business profits are sky-high. Contrary to the rhetoric, this has not been an administration that has been particularly "anti-business". The administration's instinct for solving a problem of fraud or criminality is to wish the problem away or "move forward" without any consequences for bad behavior.  But it is also a manifestation of our political system's impotence to respond to the problems of long-term unemployment and a general hopelessness about the system's ability to craft sensible long-term solutions to our longstanding structural problems.

Businesses themselves do not want to see the income distribution go the other way. We have a Russian-style oligarchy emerging in our midst. Our president could take a populist line for the next election, but he won't, because that's not who he is. He will hope that by wooing business the economy will do a little better. That is what he thinks he needs. So he too will set the agenda.

And so it will go on. Neither party will change its ways a whit, and there is nothing any one can do about it. We appear to be experiencing a slow-moving train wreck in the making, but as my friend Tom Ferguson taught me ages ago, if you want to have a happy ending, go see a Disney movie.

**For more on the growing crisis in the American political system, see Lynn Parramore's interview with Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Thomas Ferugson: "Are the Parties Over?"

Marshall Auerback is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator.

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FDR's Four Freedoms, 70 Years Old and Still Strong

Jan 6, 2011

<p></p>It was on this day 70 years ago that FDR gave one of his most important speeches: known as the Four Freedoms speech.

<p></p>It was on this day 70 years ago that FDR gave one of his most important speeches: known as the Four Freedoms speech. To get a sense of the context surrounding this speech and its implications, check out Roosevelt historian David Woolner's explanation of how his words changed the way the world thinks about human rights. You can also read the full speech and hear a recording of it here. These are the Four Freedoms as FDR spoke of them 70 years ago:

In the future days, which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.

The first is freedom of speech and expression -- everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way -- everywhere in the world.

The third is freedom from want -- which, translated into world terms, means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants -- everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear -- which, translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbor -- anywhere in the world.

That is no vision of a distant millennium. It is a definite basis for a kind of world attainable in our own time and generation. That kind of world is the very antithesis of the so-called new order of tyranny which the dictators seek to create with the crash of a bomb.

To that new order we oppose the greater conception -- the moral order. A good society is able to face schemes of world domination and foreign revolutions alike without fear.

Since the beginning of our American history, we have been engaged in change -- in a perpetual peaceful revolution -- a revolution which goes on steadily, quietly adjusting itself to changing conditions -- without the concentration camp or the quick-lime in the ditch. The world order which we seek is the cooperation of free countries, working together in a friendly, civilized society.

This nation has placed its destiny in the hands and heads and hearts of its millions of free men and women; and its faith in freedom under the guidance of God. Freedom means the supremacy of human rights everywhere. Our support goes to those who struggle to gain those rights or keep them. Our strength is our unity of purpose.

To that high concept there can be no end save victory.

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The Philosophies That Put People Behind Bars

Jan 5, 2011Mike Konczal

mike-konczal-2-100Two conservative ideologies are at work behind the huge prison population.

Following Lynn Parramore's piece on on solitary confinement, it's important to note that criminal sentencing reform will be on the table in 2011. Collapsing state budgets and ever-increasing prison populations (and the costs associated with them) will force the issue. Republican Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has recently endorsed a plan to help reduce the prison population.

As this issue unfolds, it is important to understand how we got here in the first place. First, having so much of our population behind bars is a new phenomenon, going back to 1980.

Two conservative ideologies are at work behind the huge prison population.

Following Lynn Parramore's piece on on solitary confinement, it's important to note that criminal sentencing reform will be on the table in 2011. Collapsing state budgets and ever-increasing prison populations (and the costs associated with them) will force the issue. Republican Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has recently endorsed a plan to help reduce the prison population.

As this issue unfolds, it is important to understand how we got here in the first place. First, having so much of our population behind bars is a new phenomenon, going back to 1980.

(Sources: onetwo.)

The widespread acceptance of two strains of conservative thought have led to this. The first is the school of thought known as the incapacitation theory, a theory that says, in the words of James Q. Wilson: "Wicked people exist. Nothing avails except to set them apart from innocent people."

The second is known as the broken windows theory, the idea that a neighborhood could be separated into orderly and disorderly people. As disorder sets in, orderly people flee or retrench from the neighborhood, and new disorderly people are emboldened to enter and take over. It also includes the idea that a police force doesn't solve crimes but rather maintains order. In this vision, the police don't investigate and present evidence to a prosecutor, who then presents evidence to a jury.

There’s an important rhetorical trick that the broken window ideology brought to the table, one that caught progressives off guard and brought in liberals hook, line, and sinker. As Bernard Harcourt has noted, it transforms the idea of offensive acts into harmful acts. Public drinking and loitering aren’t harms, but they are offensive to some. Broken windows allowed people to believe that offensive behavior leads to (by creating the potentials for and inevitability of) legal harms. It also became backwards compatible, allowing people to think that harmful acts were obviously preceded by an offensive act; criminalize and ruthlessly prosecute the offensive acts, and you can prevent the real harms from taking place.

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It's worth noting how broken windows, instead of acting as an alternative to incapacitation theory, acted as a supplement. But how did we get to incapacitation in the first place? In the law and economics approach of the Chicago School of Becker, Posner, Coase, etc. it is hard to balance the idea that crime is committed after an estimate of costs and benefits. Risking 30 years in prison to rob a store for $80 can't really be squared away. So what the incapacitation school argued is that it can't, unless you consider that criminals have a cognitive makeup that makes them impulsive and "present-orientated." Wilson makes reference to this in his 1975 book "Thinking About Crime": "Lower-class persons...immediate gratification...inclined to uninhibited, expressive conduct." This is the idea that delayed gratification is an essential part of the social contract and that those who are incapable of it are likely to become disorderly and commit crime.

Here's Edward C. Banfield, a professor of Urban Government at Harvard and the chairman of President Nixon's task force on the Model Cities Program, who was a mentor to James Q. Wilson:

[T]he many traits that constitute a "patterning" are all consequences, indirect if not direct, of a time horizon that is characteristic of a class... The lower-class individual lives in the slum, which, to a greater or lesser extent, is an expression of his tastes and style of life... [T]he indifference ("apathy" if one prefers) of the lower-class person is such that he seldom makes even the simplest repairs to the place that he lives in. He is not troubled by dirt and dilapidation and he does not mind the inadequacy of public facilities such as schools, parks, hospital, and libraries; indeed, where such things exist he may destroy them by carelessness or even by vandalism... [T]he slum is specialized as [a site] for vice and for illicit commodities generally...

[S]ince the benefits of crime tend to be immediate and its costs (such as imprisonment or loss of reputation) in the future, the present-oriented individual is ipso facto more disposed towards crime than others... The fact is, that no one knows how to change the culture of any part of the population... [T]he policy maker usually must take certain cultural and psychological traits as given... If he is to change a city's potential for crime it must be by manipulating situational factors, which is to say inducements...either by raising the cost of crime or by raising the benefits of noncrime... [Society must] abridge to an appropriate degree the freedom of those who in the opinion of a court are extremely likely to commit violent crimes. ("Unheavenly City Revisited", 1974)

[A] cohort of present-oriented persons could as a rule be expected to commit a good many more crimes of certain types than a matched cohort of persons who are not present-oriented. ("Present Orientedness and Crime", 1991)

There are two things to note about this. The first is that, even if it isn't self-conscious, this is an appeal to use thicker psychological descriptions in order to supplement economic models. The cost-benefit analysis of why someone would commit an armed robbery doesn't make sense unless you also assume the robber weighs current gains much more than future losses. In this sense, we would call this "behavioral economics." It's ironic, since many assume the turn towards thicker psychological descriptions in economics will naturally lead towards more progressive outcomes. But here a behavioral turn has been used to justify a massive expansion in the punitive aspects of the government alongside a massive buildup in the carceral state apparatus.

The second is that we should all become more familiar with Charles Karelis' arguments in his excellent book "The Persistence of Poverty". It's a slim volume and makes a great afternoon read. Karelis proposes we start to distinguish between pleasure goods and goods that are relievers, and realize that some goods can act as both. His thesis is that there is diminishing marginal utility in pleasure goods, but that relievers have increasing marginal utility. “…[P]aying the first bill in a stack of overdue bills does little to relieve a guilty conscience.”

Karelis takes a moment to do some intellectual history digging and finds that the current economic obsession with decreasing marginal utility comes from Jeremy Bentham equating happiness with the absence of unhappiness. Bentham, as well as the Mills, thought of happiness as reciprocal to unhappiness, like the relationship between tall and short. So increasing happiness is the same as decreasing unhappiness. Maybe, maybe not. But the problem is that this relationship is carried over to the goods that effect happiness and unhappiness.

People in a state of increasing marginal utility will display things that look like pathologies from a more secure footing -- binging and not smoothing, low and high extreme work output instead of constant labor -- but are perfectly rational given a state where every good has a reliever quality.

I'll continue in future writing about a new liberal vision of crime and punishment.

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Repealing Health Care Reform Will Kill 32,000 People a Year

Jan 5, 2011Richard Kirsch

Dems must tell the truth about a repeal's devastation on Americans' lives.

Dems must tell the truth about a repeal's devastation on Americans' lives.

Why are we beating around the bush? Yes, there are a lot of good benefits in the health care law that would be lost if it were repealed. But there's also a basic truth: health insurance saves lives. A study by doctors from the Harvard Medical School calculated that about 1,000 people will die for every one million people who are uninsured. Since the health care law is expected to cover 32 million currently uninsured people, a vote for repealing reform is a vote to kill 32,000 people a year.

Who are these people? They are people like Tifanny Owens, the Seattle mother of the 11-year-old boy who stood next to President Obama when he signed the health care law. Tifanny died after she lost her job and her health insurance because her illness was making it hard for her to get to work. Without health insurance, she couldn't get the treatments she needed to stay alive.

They are people like Billy Koehler, the Pittsburgh man who died when he couldn't afford to replace his pacemaker because he lost his health coverage when he was laid off from his job.

While Tifanny and Billy are dramatic examples, most others are everyday tragedies. Many of the uninsured people who die early die because they don't get early diagnoses and treatments for chronic diseases like high blood pressure, asthma and diabetes. Instead, they end up being given expensive emergency treatment when their medical condition is advanced, too often leading to early death.

The 32,000 deaths don't include all the "insured" people who die because they have lousy insurance. Like Melanie Shouse of Missouri, who didn't get the treatment that she needed for breast cancer because her insurance had a very high deductible and didn't cover much of her care. And then there are people who are maimed because they are uninsured, like Marcus Grimes of Virginia, who lost his eyesight when he couldn't afford eye-saving surgery because his job didn't include health coverage.

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Somehow, it's not politically acceptable to talk about the truth -- repeal will kill and maim tens of thousands of people. When Florida Rep. Alan Grayson said that the Republican health care plan was for people to "die quickly," he was roundly attacked by Republicans and the right-wing media. Why did the right go after Grayson so hard? Because they realize that a real debate about how opposing health reform means sentencing working families to death would cut through all their horse manure about a "government takeover" of health care. Unfortunately, most Democrats were cowed by the vitriol of the Republicans' personal attack on Grayson -- just what the right hoped would happen. Instead, Democrats should have defended him and amplified his truth-telling.

Dr. King said, "Of all the forms of injustice, inequality in health care is the most shocking and inhumane." The key word here is "inequality." We spend twice as much per person on health care as any other developed country, while those nations provide good coverage to everyone with almost no out-of-pocket cost. We have the most unequal health system in the world, and it kills tens of thousands of people every year -- that's the shocking and inhumane part.

So as the Republicans rant about repealing reform to stop a government takeover, Democrats should do more than just remind people that repeal will take away real benefits, let the insurance industry off the hook, and increase the deficit while cutting a decade off the solvency of the Medicare trust fund. Democrats should make it crystal clear that repeal will end "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" for 32,000 Americans a year.

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute and is writing a book on the progressive campaign to enact health reform.

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