Following Walmart and Black Friday

Nov 21, 2012Mike Konczal

My colleague Dorian Warren describes what is going on with Walmart in the video above and here.

Here's a list of events and ways to particpate by standing with Walmart on Black Friday. I encourage you to check it out.

Josh Eidelson has been a must read on this topic. Read him at his new Nation blog here, and follow him on twitter here.

Also, I enjoyed reading Sarah Jaffe reporting at the Guardian, and Seth Ackerman talking about Walmart via Hostess here.

My colleague Dorian Warren describes what is going on with Walmart in the video above and here.

Here's a list of events and ways to particpate by standing with Walmart on Black Friday. I encourage you to check it out.

Josh Eidelson has been a must read on this topic. Read him at his new Nation blog here, and follow him on twitter here.

Also, I enjoyed reading Sarah Jaffe reporting at the Guardian, and Seth Ackerman talking about Walmart via Hostess here.

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Obama's Second Term Could Mark the Return of the Four Freedoms

Nov 21, 2012David Woolner

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a call to return to a foreign policy based in FDR's vision of shared peace and prosperity.

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a call to return to a foreign policy based in FDR's vision of shared peace and prosperity.

Even though we come from different places, we share common dreams: to choose our leaders; to live together in peace; to get an education and make a good living; to love our families and our communities. That’s why freedom is not an abstract idea; freedom is the very thing that makes human progress possible — not just at the ballot box, but in our daily lives.

One of our greatest Presidents in the United States, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, understood this truth. He defined America’s cause as more than the right to cast a ballot. He understood democracy was not just voting. He called upon the world to embrace four fundamental freedoms: freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear. These four freedoms reinforce one another, and you cannot fully realize one without realizing them all.—Barack H. Obama, University of Yangon, November 19, 2012

In his historic visit to Burma, also referred to as Myanmar, President Obama spoke at length about the journey Burma is taking from dictatorship to democracy, a transition he said has the potential to inspire people the world over as “a test of whether a country can transition to a better place.”

President Obama made it clear that his journey to Burma—the first by an American president—was inspired in part by his own desire to encourage the people and government of Burma to press ahead with their democratic reforms so that the “flickers of progress” that the world has seen will not be extinguished. The president’s visit was also notable for his repeated insistence that America was a “Pacific nation,” whose “future was bound to those nations and peoples to our West.” But perhaps the most significant aspect of his speech was his decision to frame his remarks around a concept first articulated by Franklin D. Roosevelt at one of the darkest moments of the Second World War—the need to build a world founded on four fundamental human freedoms.

At a moment when Adolf Hitler had proclaimed the onset of “a new order” in Nazi-occupied Europe, and when Japanese militarists had seized much of China and were poised to expand their grip on Southeast Asia, Franklin Roosevelt proposed “a greater conception,” a “moral order” that represented the very antithesis of the “tyranny which the dictators seek to create with the crash of a bomb.” FDR’s order was based on the idea that all people—“everywhere in the world”—deserved the right to enjoy freedom of speech and expression; freedom of worship; freedom from want; and freedom from fear.

He articulated this vision in part because of the critical need to gain the support of the American people and Congress for the passage of the Lend-Lease Bill that was pending on Capitol Hill. But the enunciation of the Four Freedoms and initiation of Lend-Lease—which would make it possible for the United States to provide arms and munitions to Great Britain free of charge—was also inspired by a much deeper conviction: that the security of the United States was tied directly to the health and well-being of other nations.

For many Americans today, World War II and the Great Depression are two separate events. But for the generation that lived through these unparalleled crises, nothing could be farther from the truth. In their minds, and in the mind of Franklin Roosevelt, the two were inextricably linked. The Great Depression, after all, was not confined to the United States, but represented a worldwide economic crisis that helped inspire anti-democratic forces in both Europe and Asia—anti-democratic forces that helped give rise to the fascist movements in Germany and in Japan that would initiate the most destructive war in human history.

In light of this, Franklin Roosevelt remained convinced that the Second World War had economic causes. Moreover, as the war progressed, he became more and more convinced that America’s security was tied to the security of the rest of the world. As such, it was not enough for the United States to rely solely on the strength of its armed forces to provide for the nation’s safety; we also had to concern ourselves with the political, social, and economic health of other regions of the world since, as FDR put it in 1944, “true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence”…and “people who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.”

It was this basic idea that inspired not only the Four Freedoms, but also the many institutions and practices that were put in place during and after the war to foster international cooperation and a more prosperous, healthy, and peaceful world. Many of these institutions and practices—like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank. and multilateral trading regime—are with us still, so that much of the world we live in today is the world shaped by the vision of Franklin Roosevelt.

In recent years, however, we seem to have moved further and further away from this vision to a foreign policy that is dominated largely by the use of military force—no doubt inspired in part by the advent of modern technology, such as drone aircraft. This is unfortunate, for even though President Obama has shown willingness to use other means to pursue America’s interests abroad, his foreign policy to date has remained highly militarized.

His eloquent speech in Burma may indicate that he has decided to pursue a more progressive foreign policy agenda in his second term, one based on the recognition that the best means to keep America safe in the long term is to ensure that the hopes and aspirations of people the world over to enjoy freedom of speech and expression, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear stand not, as Roosevelt said, as some “vision of a distant millennium,” but as “a definite basis for a kind of world attainable in our own time and generation.”

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute. He is currently writing a book entitled Cordell Hull, Anthony Eden and the Search for Anglo-American Cooperation, 1933-1938.

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The GOP's Holiday Gift Guide: Pain for the Poor, Ponies for the Rich

Nov 21, 2012Tim Price

Republicans are using the fiscal cliff to extract payback for all the "gifts" President Obama has given to Americans.

Republicans are using the fiscal cliff to extract payback for all the "gifts" President Obama has given to Americans.

Before Americans have even finished digesting their Thanksgiving turkey, the holiday shopping season will have officially begun. But according to Mitt Romney, Christmas came early for those who voted for Barack Obama. The failed Republican presidential nominee and latter-day Scrooge told donors last week that President Obama had won reelection by “giving targeted groups a big gift.” And what generous stocking-stuffers they were! For the young and the poor, health coverage under the Affordable Care Act. For Hispanics, an executive order halting deportation of the children of undocumented immigrants. For women, free contraception for use in all their filthy lady activities. If Malia and Sasha don’t find a pair of baby unicorns under the White House Christmas tree this year, they have a right to feel jealous.

Romney’s comments met with disapproval from fellow Republicans who hope to have a future in elective office, but the truth is that they reflect an understanding of the American public and its relationship with government that is widely shared among conservatives. Paul Waldman argues that it fits right in with their “makers vs. takers” ideology, the notion that the country is divided between “the brave individualists needing nothing from anyone, and the blood-sucking parasites who rely on government.” But Republicans don’t just want to reset policy to some sort of neutral state where everyone gives and receives his or her fair share (slow down there, Karl Marx). Instead, they seem to view the fiscal cliff as an opportunity to impose austerity measures that would redistribute the gifts to their Nice List and punish those who have been spoiled by Obama’s socialist Santa. 

The fiscal cliff is in fact better described as an “austerity bomb,” a term coined by TPM’s Brian Beutler and echoed by Paul Krugman. Despite what the cliff terminology might suggest, the problem isn’t that the federal deficit is about to explode, but that conservatives who have spent years demanding swift and substantial deficit reduction are about to get exactly what they wanted. If this mix of scheduled tax increases and spending cuts is allowed to take effect, it will carve $560 billion out of the budget next year – so why are deficit scolds suddenly terrified of the consequences? Krugman argues that they’re implicitly conceding that “Keynesians were right all along, that slashing spending and raising taxes on ordinary workers is destructive in a depressed economy, and that we should actually be doing the opposite.”

But are Republicans really worried about the plight of the working man? You wouldn’t know it based on the alternatives they’ve proposed, which involve swapping one set of austerity measures for a slightly different set of austerity measures. Their real concern is what the fiscal cliff will mean for their friends and supporters, not what it will mean for the broader economy. Sure, the poor will take the hit first, as is their lot in life, but taxes will go up on rich people, too! That’s money coming straight out of the 2014 campaign coffers. And what about those poor defense contractors who will suffer from cuts to the Pentagon’s budget? They have mouths to feed, too.

The terms that Republicans have set for the fiscal cliff negotiations provide clear evidence of this favoritism. Chastened by President Obama’s reelection, they keep claiming they’re open to compromise, but they steadfastly refuse to raise tax rates on the rich. Instead, they insist any new revenue must come from “closing loopholes,” a hoary Beltway cliché that means nothing in particular, and they’ll only concede that much if Democrats agree to “reform entitlements,” which is even less specific but more ominous. Oh, and they also want “changes” to the Affordable Care Act to be on the table. In fact, if Barack Obama would just go ahead and resign from office, it would be a real show of good faith and bipartisan spirit.

Proposing to cut Social Security benefits or raise the retirement age as part of a fiscal cliff deal is a non sequitur at best. With all due respect to financial masterminds like Lloyd Blankfein, it’s hard to believe that anyone could be told that Congress is about to pull the rug out from under the fragile recovery and honestly conclude that the solution is to make old people work longer. It’s the equivalent of the president being told that we’re on the verge of nuclear war and replying, “I’ll have the soup.” As Jeff Madrick has explained at length, Social Security is not in crisis, and there are plenty of easy fixes available for its future financial shortfall. (Medicare is a thornier problem, but one that probably shouldn’t be dealt with on a timer.) Senator Mark Begich, for instance, has proposed to cover the gap and pay for more generous benefits by eliminating the payroll tax cap. But don’t expect that plan to be taken very seriously by the Very Serious People, because it asks the rich to sacrifice more instead of inflicting some character-building pain on everyone else.

Aside from being unnecessary, such cuts would have a disproportionate impact on the poor. The right’s claim that Social Security wasn’t designed to handle increased life expectancies is based on a serious misunderstanding of history and human biology, but it is true that life expectancy has risen dramatically – for the rich. Workers on the lower rungs of the economic ladder haven’t been so lucky, so a higher retirement age is just a massive benefit cut for them. Of course, any such changes would only be phased in for younger workers, who (purely coincidentally) don’t vote Republican, not current retirees who do. That will teach those spoiled little punks. Er, I mean, preserve the promise of Social Security for future generations.

The same logic, if you can call it that, applies to demanding changes to the Affordable Care Act. The current law will save $109 billion over the next 10 years, so in theory, the deficit hawks should love it, right? Well, there are two problems with that theory. The first is that those cost savings are based on CBO projections, which, like Nate Silver’s electoral analysis, fall into that category of “liberal math” that Republicans find inherently suspect. The other is that the ACA achieves those savings while helping poor people -- that’s what makes it a gift, according to Romney. But deficit reduction isn’t supposed to make life easier; it’s supposed to be tough love that forces people to fend for themselves in a harsh and unforgiving world. Like exercise, the pain means it’s working. Or maybe you just tore a tendon. You should probably check with your doctor, assuming you can afford health insurance.

This barely concealed impulse to punish the undeserving is the source of Republicans’ internal conflict over the fiscal cliff and the biggest hurdle they must overcome in their efforts to become viable contenders for the White House again. They may not see it as punishment; to them, it’s just a teaspoon of unpleasant medicine that will eventually make the country much healthier. But things like government-funded health care, education, and retirement security only look like gifts from the perspective of the man who has everything. What Republicans see as unaffordable luxuries, the rest of us see as essential to a basic standard of living. Until they realize that, we might be able to reach a compromise on the fiscal cliff, but we’ll never really find common ground.

Tim Price is Deputy Editor of Next New Deal. Follow him on Twitter @txprice.

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The Missing Living Wage Agenda

Nov 20, 2012Annette BernhardtDorian Warren

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a long-term plan to provide justice on the job for all workers.

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a long-term plan to provide justice on the job for all workers.

Now that the election is over, our hope is that we can finally move beyond the vacuous invocations of an imaginary middle class where everyone is in the same boat. It’s time to get real about the concrete policies needed to take on the multiple inequalities that run deep through the U.S. labor market. And we’re not talking about the “skills mismatch,” another red herring routinely flung into this debate by both sides (including by President Obama as recently as the last week of the campaign).

What we’re talking about is a broad, multi-year agenda to give America’s workers a living wage and voice on the job and to take on the continuing exclusion of workers of color, immigrants, and women from good jobs. The media may have discovered inequality last year with the surprise emergence of Occupy Wall Street, but in truth, there is a 30-year backlog of policies to fix the extreme maldistribution of wages and opportunity in the labor market.

First, we have to make our core workplace standards much stronger – whether it’s in terms of wages, health and safety, or voice on the job. That means raising the minimum wage so that it’s a meaningful floor again (some good news: voters in Albuquerque, San Jose, and Long Beach raised theirs last week). It means updating health and safety regulations written in the 1970s. And it means restoring the right to organize, because at this point, virulent employer opposition and retaliation has rendered U.S. labor law obsolete. Fifty-eight percent of U.S. workers say they would like to be represented by a union, but only 11.8 percent actually are. This is what happens when one out of four workers is fired illegally for attempting to organize a union while employers face minimal penalties.

Second, we have to take on the profound reorganization of the American workplace. The poster child for precarious work is temp jobs – but subcontracting has had a much broader impact, as janitors, laundry workers, warehouse workers, security guards, food service workers, and millions of others have been outsourced to low-wage firms. A good model for a solution is California’s recent law making companies liable for minimum wage and overtime violations by their subcontractors, recognizing that end-user firms such as Walmart exert considerable control over working conditions down their supply chains.   

Third, we have to double down on enforcement. A 2008 study of Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York found that 26 percent of low-wage workers were paid less than the minimum wage and 76 percent were underpaid or not paid at all for their overtime hours. Yet the number of federal wage and hour inspectors is still below 1980 levels, and it would take 131 years for OSHA investigators to inspect each workplace just once. Until employers face substantial costs to their bottom line (as is true in other bodies of law, such as environmental regulation and employment discrimination law), practices like wage theft, retaliation against workers trying to organize a union, and independent contractor misclassification will continue unabated.

Fourth, we have to do a better job of leveraging the government’s capital. Public money touches millions of private-sector jobs, whether by purchasing goods and services for the government or by funding everything from schools and bridges to health care and social services. There are plenty of innovative models to ensure that this money results in good jobs, whether it’s responsible contracting policies (in California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Illinois), living wage laws (in more than 140 cities and counties), or accountable economic development policies (in Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and New York City, among others).

Fifth, we have to explicitly break down systemic labor market exclusions of people of color, immigrants, women, the unemployed, and people with criminal records. For example, advocates are pushing the U.S. Department of Labor to finally end the exemption of home care workers from minimum wage and overtime protection, and cities across the country are passing “ban the box” policies to reduce hiring barriers for people with arrest or conviction records.  

But we also have to challenge de facto exclusions. A good example is targeted hiring and training programs on publicly funded projects, which in our mind will be crucial to solving the escalating (and chronically under-reported) economic crisis in communities of color. A great example is Portland’s 2009 residential retrofitting program, which mandated living wages and local hiring from designated training programs. As of last year, the program’s workers earned median wages of $18 per hour; fully 84 percent were local residents, nearly half of them people of color. While unemployment is still at Depression-era levels in many black communities, we know what works to employ those still excluded from access to the labor market.

A final word on why we think these policies (and many others; see the long-form version here) are politically viable. In communities across the country, there is an undeniable thirst for justice on the job and investment in local communities. This is true not just for raising the minimum wage, which consistently polls in the 70-80 percent range, but also policies such as paid sick days, increased funding for elder care and child care, cracking down on wage theft, using taxpayer money to create living wage jobs, and restoring the right to organize.

(If you doubt support for organizing, consider the recent wave of strikes by Walmart workers, or New York’s taxi workers organizing for better pay even though they are independent contractors, or Palermo’s pizza workers in Wisconsin staying out on strike for three months and now pressuring Costco to boycott their employer.)

The real question is whether President Obama and Democrats in Congress understand that raising taxes on the top 2 percent is only the first step on a long road toward building a sustainable living wage economy in the U.S. Our hope lies in the growing recognition among progressives that it will take the pressure and power of social movements to convince him to walk that road with us.

Annette Bernhardt and Dorian Warren are Fellows at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Obama Can Thank Women Voters By Supporting Real Economic Equality

Nov 15, 2012Bryce Covert

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a way to recognize the economic needs of the women who helped re-elect President Obama.

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," a way to recognize the economic needs of the women who helped re-elect President Obama.

Both candidates spent a lot of time and energy courting women’s votes this cycle. But as predicted, the gender gap yawned on Election Day and pushed Obama to victory with a 10-point gender gap between him and Romney. How can President Obama thank the women who voted for him as he starts shaping the agenda for his second term? There are a variety of general economic policies that will benefit everyone, including women, such as spending federal stimulus money to kick-start a sluggish economy, ensuring the jobs being created in the recovery pay enough to support workers and their families, and bolstering a failing safety net to support the most vulnerable among us.

But while women hold down half of the jobs in our economy, they still face unique challenges and obstacles to full economic equality. If President Obama cares about women’s economic welfare as much Candidate Obama indicated, there are some important issues he can take on in the next four years.

  1. Truly equal pay for equal work: President Obama often talks about the fact that the first bill he signed into law was the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which helps address the gender wage gap. The act gives women more time to file a claim alleging discrimination since the truth may take a long time to surface. But while the act gets talked about like a panacea, it’s far from it. The number of pay discrimination complaints filed with the EEOC fell since the signing of the act while the pay gap widened. This is because the gap is caused by a complex array of factors: occupational segregation, hostile courts, and plain old discrimination. A first step to supplement the Lilly Ledbetter Act would be prohibiting salary secrecy, forcing employers to allow employees to talk about their pay with each other, something half of all workers cannot currently do. It will be next to impossible for women to address discrimination if they don’t even know it’s happening. But we also have to talk about how to move women into nontraditional fields, appoint judges to the courts that will stand by women when they sue for discrimination, and raise pay for the service sector jobs that women already dominate. These are large issues, but without putting them on the agenda they’ll continue to hamper women’s equality.
  1. Paid time off to care for family: We are one of just three countries among 178 that doesn’t guarantee any paid maternity leave benefits. Fifty countries go further to offer leave for fathers. Among the 15 most competitive nations, we’re the only one that doesn’t have a paid sick days policy. The reality is that the work of caring for children – when they’re very young, sick, or not in school – still falls mostly to women. Yet they can still lose their jobs when they need to miss work for this important caretaking. And without offering paid benefits, we force many women to take on debt or go hat in hand to loved ones and friends to get through. Not only will paid family leave benefit women, it will benefit men and help to change the care work equation. Men are more likely to take time off to be with a new child if the leave is paid – unsurprisingly, since families have such a hard time financing the lost income. And when men do take leave, they become more involved in their children’s lives. Universal, paid leave policies improve quality of life for all workers while leveling the playing field for women.
  1. Significant support for child care: There are two sides to child care. On one are those who need help caring for family and as mentioned above, they are almost entirely women. On the other are the caregivers, also almost entirely women. Our support for child care is pretty dismal and getting worse. The cost of putting two children in center care exceeds median rent in all 50 states. At the same time, the majority of states have pulled back on child care assistance for two years in a row. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit that gives parents who are paying for child care a tax break has only increased once in the last 28 years. The government needs to invest heavily in supporting working parents, men and women alike, with skyrocketing child care costs, allowing all who can and want to go to work to leave their children with quality caretakers. This is also a way to begin ensuring that these caretakers are well paid. In a national survey of in-home child care providers, the most common answer to how much they make in a week is $500, or $26,000 a year – a pitiful amount, not to mention that many don’t receive any benefits. Given how much families struggle with the cost and how many domestic workers don’t make enough to live on, the government must step in.

American women have flooded the labor market in the last half-century. But our economy and society haven’t changed enough to meet them halfway. President Obama won’t be able to fix all of these problems in his second term. But he can begin to address them and put a spotlight on these societal problems that we still think of as private concerns. I’m sure women voters would be grateful.

Bryce Covert is Editor of Next New Deal.

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Going on the Offensive Against Poverty in America

Nov 14, 2012Georgia Levenson Keohane

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," suggestions for how Obama can get serious about combating poverty.

As part of our series "A Rooseveltian Second Term Agenda," suggestions for how Obama can get serious about combating poverty.

Hurricane Sandy’s violence was a tragic reminder of some important truths in American life: climate change matters, government matters, and caring for the vulnerable – for those severely afflicted by circumstances beyond their control – not only matters, it is the essence of who we are as a people. Today, our country’s vulnerable include the 46 million people – nearly one in six – who live in poverty, and 16 million of those are children. This deprivation is particularly grievous in context: earnings for the wealthiest continued to grow last year, while income for the rest stagnated or fell. These levels of poverty and inequality are not only unconscionable, they threaten our economic security.  When it comes to fighting poverty, what do we make of the Obama team’s record and, more importantly, what should be its priorities for the next four years?

The Poverty of the Debate on Poverty

Poverty’s notable absence during the campaign season disappointed and galvanized many progressives who hoped to insert the issue into the election platform and political debates. Those concerns echoed earlier remonstrations that that the president had failed to address poverty over the last four years with the passion or federal muscle promised in his 2008 campaign. “Barack Obama can barely bring himself to say the word ‘poor,’ Bob Herbert wrote this spring in The Grio. Paul Tough, Herbert’s public conscience heir at the New York Times, explains the political conundrum behind the administration’s focus on the economic woes of a broader set of struggling Americans rather than on the poorest per se: “how do you persuade voters to devote tax dollars to help the truly disadvantaged when the middle class is feeling disadvantaged itself?”

While we may long for the soaring rhetoric of 2008, the fact is these broad-based policies have worked. They have not eradicated poverty, but many important domestic programs – the stimulus, in particular, which included new and expanded tax credits, enhanced unemployment insurance, and increased eligibility for food stamps – kept an estimated seven million out of poverty and cushioned against even greater hardship for more than thirty million people already below the federal threshold. Not to mention that health care reform extended coverage to tens of millions of uninsured Americans (in part by expanding access to Medicaid). The federal poverty measure does not take into account non-cash transfers, including food stamps, housing subsidies, and health care benefits like Medicare and Medicaid. When these are factored in, it appears as though poverty has not increased under Obama’s tenure.

Pivot from Defense to Offense

When it comes to a new kind of war on poverty, the Obama administration must recognize that it now has the freedom – and, arguably, an electoral mandate – to address need in this country in ways that serve the struggling middle class and target programs and policies to help the poor. This is not an either/or proposition. And of course job creation is the primary lever: there is no better way to help all Americans in the next four years and beyond.

In terms of programs to address persistent poverty, however, Obama’s second term agenda must pivot from defense to offense, graduating from “could have been worse” blood staunching to an even greater commitment both to long-term investments in human capital and interim supports that shield children and families from some of the most severe privations of life in poverty.  Here are three places to begin:

(1)  Redouble investment in comprehensive and community-wide approaches to fighting poverty. Tough laments that, while in 2008 Obama called for “billions” for programs like Promise Neighborhoods that are modeled on Harlem Children’s Zone’s and provide a broad swath of interventions for poor children and their families, the administration to date has spent just $100 million on pilot programs in 37 communities across 18 states. Ongoing and expanded support for these kinds of holistic programs in cities across the country would make for a sound investment in human potential, using federal structure and funds to support local and community generated solutions.

(2)  Commit more fully to investments in high quality early childhood education and childcare, which yield substantial returns in the school success and life prospects of low-income children and their working parents. This means expanded tax credits and other financial supports for families paying for childcare. It also means increased funds for proven programs like Head Start and Early Head Start, particularly when state governments across the country, with budgets in crises, have been forced to cut Pre-K programs. Head Start and Early Head Start are chronically underfunded and therefore do not reach many eligible families.

(3)  Reform welfare reform, so that it provides real ‘safety’ for poor families in tough economic times. Although it has long been touted as a success of the Clinton administration, the 1996 welfare reform, which devolved much of TANF to the states and linked cash assistance to stringent work requirements, was structurally flawed. First, it was not indexed for inflation (and is funded at its 1996 level). Second, as a block grant it leaves poor people dependent on (now) cash-strapped states for support. Third, the original work requirements were predicated on the existence of work, not on the stubbornly high unemployment rates of this recession. The federal government must reclaim a greater role in the redesign and provision of temporary assistance for needy families to help keep them out of extreme poverty in the way it has done with other critical strands of the safety net like food stamps and unemployment insurance.

With this second term, the Obama administration has the chance to broaden opportunity and to make vital advances in the fight against poverty.  

Georgia Levenson Keohane is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Showing Leadership By Putting Graduates to Work

Nov 13, 2012Joshua McKinney

As part of the "Millennial Priorities for the First 100 Days" series, a recognition of the need to address student debt levels and unemployed graduates.

As part of the "Millennial Priorities for the First 100 Days" series, a recognition of the need to address student debt levels and unemployed graduates.

In 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt was faced with a widespread catastrophe. The Depression had given birth to shattering rates of unemployment, bank failures, and a widespread loss of confidence in government. From the start, FDR knew that what the people needed most was reassurance that under his leadership, they could weather the storm. In his inaugural address on a gloomy March morning, FDR said, "This nation asks for action, and action now. Our greatest primary task is to put people to work. I am prepared under my constitutional duty to recommend the measures that a stricken nation in the midst of a stricken world may require." Soon thereafter, he set a high standard for new presidents during his first 100 days, launching a raft of New Deal reforms over his first three months in office.

With a laundry list of issues and a divided congress, President Obama faces hurdles in acting and acting quickly. In the three months following his second inauguration ceremony, his actions need to provide the country with reassurance that this ship is moving in the right direction under his leadership. Perhaps his most important task will be addressing this through the lens of education policy.

Education has long been the primary driver of upward mobility in America, a fact that is truer now than ever before. Yet as the demands on schools to impart 21st century skills have increased, school quality has not kept pace across the country, resulting in an ever-widening achievement gap. Our primary and secondary schools are tested to death but provide little to no growth in our national education numbers. According to NPR’s Claudio Sanchez, “the class of 2012 scored the lowest average SAT reading scores since 1972” while also managing to take a nine-point dive in writing. The only area where we saw a national improvement was in math, where it stands only five points higher than 40 years ago. Overall, College Board, which commissions the SAT, reports that six in ten college students are not ready for college work. Students are now faced with the decision to enter college unprepared or not enter college at all. The ACT reported even more dismal numbers: only a quarter of the high schoolers who took the test were college ready.

What comes of those students who enter into college unprepared? According to Complete College America, about 41 percent of the high school graduates who enter college are required to take remedial courses when they start college. Even more alarming is that two-thirds of these students fail to earn their degree in six years, some accumulating unreasonably high amounts of college loan debt.

What happens to the students who pass on college altogether? Armed with a high school diploma and little to no marketable skills, these students all to often face unemployment.

Is graduating college in four years the remedy, as many proclaim? It helps, but many college students are unemployed as well. The common problem for all three sets of students is the lack of skills – a problem which has also become a crisis in America.

To expect President Obama and Sec. Duncan to address every aspect of the system as a whole within the first hundred days is unreasonable. We can, however, expect them to address the increasingly alarming student loan bubble and the skills crisis.

Since 1978, average college tuition has skyrocketed by over 900 percent, while grants and scholarships continue to be slashed and only given to a select group of students. The result? Students are forced to mortgage their futures with student loan debt. This, accompanied with dismal job numbers for college graduates, has many worried that graduates will default on their loans, causing the bubble to burst and result in seismic shocks through every facet of American life. It is paramount that this bubble be addressed by the national government or the effects could cripple the already fragile economy.

One way to address this would be to get more young people to work. This could be done by revitalizing our skills training across the nation and investing in current skills training organizations such as yearup. If the president uses this approach, he can simultaneously address the skills crisis and the student loan debt crisis. But this project is more complex than simply increasing funding. It would have to begin with a role change for many of the community colleges around the nation. This is not to call for them to become full-fledged technical schools, nor should they carry identical curriculums to that of four-year institutions. They should, however, increase the number of classes available for training local people in the skills they need to do the jobs available in the area around them. Since the budgets of many community colleges are strained already, President Obama could provide tax incentives to companies that send trained workers to teach classes at their surrounding community colleges. This is imperfect in many ways, but could very well work if the nuances are worked out. 

President Obama has 100 days to reassure the people that his leadership will move this country in the right direction, just as FDR did in 1933. If he can solve the student loan debt bubble while addressing the skills crisis, he will send a solid signal to the American people that this country is really moving forward. 

Joshua Mckinney is the Senior Fellow in Education Policy for the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network and a political science and philosophy double major at Morehouse College.

 

Barack Obama image via Shutterstock.com.

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Mitt Romney, Reactionary Keynesian

Nov 6, 2012Mike Konczal

I meant to develop this into a larger work on the Right and economic stimulus but it never happened, and with the election today favoring President Obama, it is likely I won't get a chance. So here's part of it for the blog.

I meant to develop this into a larger work on the Right and economic stimulus but it never happened, and with the election today favoring President Obama, it is likely I won't get a chance. So here's part of it for the blog.

In December 2008 Mitt Romney wrote "A Republican Stimulus Plan" at the National Review, announcing "this is surely the time for economic stimulus." What should be in a Republican stimulus plan? First up, tax cuts. Tax cuts for capital income and corporations, and tax cuts overalls. But tax cuts aren't sufficient to the task, and some sort of direct spending will be required. However, since most infrastructure takes too long to get off the ground, "[s]pending to refurbish and modernize our military equipment is urgently needed, and it has a more immediate impact on the economy."

In 2008 Mitt Romney wanted to stimulate the economy with tax cuts and military spending. It's worth noting that two of the central planks in Mitt Romney's currently underdeveloped economic policy are a series of tax cuts and a dramatic $2 trillion dollar increase in military spending. But don't call it stimulus! Mitt's National Defense Plan wants to "modernize and replace the aging inventories of the Air Force, Army, and Marines," as in the stimulus plan, but this is now to address "Obama's failure" in foreign policy.

Mitt Romney's tax plan is meant to offset tax cuts by cutting tax expenditures. But the tax plan currently looks like an unassembled game of Mousetrap where you know several of the pieces are missing. It could work, but it isn't clear how it would. But even if Mitt Romney did offset his tax cuts by cutting expenditures, those expenditure cuts would likely be put into place over a period of years, years where the deficit would balloon further. (The Ryan Plan also balloons the deficit in the short term dramatically.) This would still work as stimulus.

So Keynesianism through tax cuts and the military. The military stuff really does add to what John Kenneth Galbraith referred to as "a new and reactionary form of Keynesianism with which to contend" where "Tax reduction would then become a substitute for increased outlays on urgent social needs." Or as Michael Harrington wrote, in a 1966 Encounter article titled "Reactionary Keynesianism," "in the United States it is quite possible to envisage a conservative Keynesian policy which substitutes tax cuts for social investments, increases the maldistribution of income (the rich and the corporations gain more from tax cuts than the workers and the poor) and maintains a prosperity as that term would be defined by business."

Liberals like to point out the contradiction of Republicans attacking economic stimulus while arguing that defense cuts will tank the economy, and they are right to do that. But I'm still having difficulty thinking through where the distributional impact of various ways of managing the economy, the type of society it builds, connects into the political ideology. I imagine we'll have more opportunities to see this in the aftermath of the election.

 

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Guest Post: Heather Boushey on Inequality and Growth

Nov 6, 2012Mike Konczal

Mike here: Special guest post by Heather Boushey of the Center for American Progress, responding to a recent citation of her work with Adam Hersh on inequality and growth (work we discussed here). The launch of this post was delayed on my end as a result of Sandy-induced work/email chaos.

Mike here: Special guest post by Heather Boushey of the Center for American Progress, responding to a recent citation of her work with Adam Hersh on inequality and growth (work we discussed here). The launch of this post was delayed on my end as a result of Sandy-induced work/email chaos. Hope you check it out, as well as their excellent report that is discussed within.

Inequality does appear to affect economic growth

by Heather Boushey

It is now a well-known fact that the United States has the highest levels of inequality among developed countries. Increasingly, the economics profession is questioning how this affects our economy, not only in terms of what it means for those at the bottom of the income distribution, but in terms of how high inequality affects economic growth and stability.

The New York Times recently published a thoughtful piece on the relationship of rising U.S. inequality to long-term economic growth. In the wake of that article, they published a Room for Debate online forum on this topic and Scott Winship, a scholar a the Brooking’s Institution was among those participating. Mr. Winship cites our report on the topic to discuss what he argues is inadequate evidence linking inequality and growth.

We are grateful that Mr. Winship acknowledges CAP's central role in this debate, but grossly mischaracterizes our conclusions. The quote he pulled from our report gives the false impression that our research supports the conclusionthat inequality is not a problem for economic growth.

Our argument is that we need to look specifically at the channels through which inequality affects economic growth, specifically in the U.S. context. For example, there is evidence that documents how the rich don’t spend as much of their income as the non-rich. If inequality keeps rising and the rich pull in a larger and larger share of national income, this stunts demand, the lifeblood of the economy.

Another mechanism is through entrepreneurship, which is often portrayed as the dynamic force in a capitalist economy. Yet, most entrepreneurs come from the middle class. The middle class provides both the economic security and access to education and credit that entrepreneursneed.

If inequality is due to the top pulling far away from the rest of the economy,which creates a very wealthy elite, this is often associated with a well-known economic phenomenon of “rent-seeking.” The wealthy will tend to use their outsized resources to garner a bigger piece of the pie, rather than on investments that will increase productivity and make the whole pie bigger. And, there is growing evidence that this is exactly what is happening to our economy, threatening long-term growth. For example, economists have been finding that as money has flowed into the financial sector, that industry has increasingly used its resources to promote policies that benefit itself only.

In opposition to Mr. Winship’s claim, the preponderance of evidence does supports the conclusion that inequality can hamper economic growth. We conducted a thorough review of the literature and in the quote he took, we were highlighting methodological limitations in a specific class of empirical studies. We also pointed out that cross-country panel data studies look at reduced form equations for growth and we argue that we should be thinking instead about a structural model.

Others have found our report to be data-driven. Jim Tankersley, journalist with the National Journal encouraged his readers to consume the report “in its entirety,” describing is as a “The bulk of Boushey and Hersh's sources aren't partisan in any way - just detailed, data-driven analysis from top economists.” This blog called it “the best up-to-date arguments that progressives discussing inequality should understand inside out.” And in a lengthy discussion on the subject last month by Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to the vice president, our work was used to frame a summary of the latest research on this topic. 

We are typically pleased to have our research cited in the paper of record, the New York Times. However, it is no fun to have our work grossly misrepresented.

 

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Transition Tasks: Commit to a New Model of Economic Growth

Oct 31, 2012Bo Cutter

The global economy is heading toward a huge transformation. Can America rise to the challenge?

Neither of our two major political parties have at their cores a commitment  to economic growth. In his second term, President Obama has an extraordinary opportunity to grab the golden ring, make a genuine commitment to sustainable, equitable growth, and follow that up with a credible, plausible entrepreneurial growth model.

The global economy is heading toward a huge transformation. Can America rise to the challenge?

Neither of our two major political parties have at their cores a commitment  to economic growth. In his second term, President Obama has an extraordinary opportunity to grab the golden ring, make a genuine commitment to sustainable, equitable growth, and follow that up with a credible, plausible entrepreneurial growth model.

But aren't both parties pro-growth in their platforms and their various position statements? Of course they are. It's a necessary ritual of political life. But for both the left and the right, growth is a residual - it's what you're for, after you get everything else you want. Moreover, both parties are wedded to whole sets of client groups whose agendas don't include economic growth at all.

The right wants austerity, low taxes, budget surpluses, preferably no government but at the most a small and passive government, no abortion, a Christian nation, and no immigrants - all before it wants growth. There will certainly be those who argue that some of these elements are essential aspects of an economic growth strategy, but I've yet to see a serious and specific growth model from the right and I've heard nothing about equitable and sustainable growth. In any case, the problem is that you can't just get elements of this list; holding today's right-wing coalition together requires that you get the whole package.

The left favors large active government almost as a principle, rather than a tool for something. By far it's highest priority is the current social safety net, unchanged forever. It does not regard debt or deficits as issues that matter. It is deeply contemptuous and dismissive of business, suspicious of markets, and is far more concerned about income distribution than about income expansion. It is very concerned - as it should be - about the short- and long-term effects of unemployment and it wants a sustainable and equitable world but sees no particular connection between these good things and economic growth. As with the right, one searches in vain for any useful theory or model of long run growth in the writings of the left.

The central attitude toward growth of both party philosophies is similar to the foreman on the loading dock who said, regarding his company's attitude toward quality, "It's in the slogan, and the vice president talks quality at least four times a year. But the assistant vice president talks shipping cases several times a day."

Other than playing whack-a-mole with each other over the short-term growth rate right now, the view of both the left and right is that the economy is a perpetual motion machine that will just keep rumbling along. But it isn't. Not ever and particularly not now. 

Economies have rhythms. They don't just march along forever at some preordained rate of growth. Big economies respond over decades, generations, to big impulses: revolutions in the cost of power, or transportation, or information; revolutions in the applications of these big cost shifts. These impulses spread throughout an economy, driving higher rates of economic growth, and then, as they become pervasive, lose their force. America has experienced such impulses, or waves, at least five times in the last 200 years. We are in the end phase of one such impulse and the very early stages of the next.

The "golden era" of the 20th century between roughly in 1950, and 1980 represented the full flourishing, the height of one such era and growth impulse. In these 30 years, the economy was dominated by large companies, managerial capitalism, and a financial system that evolved to meet those particular needs. The success of this era importantly shaped our expectations, our sense of how the world works, our institutions, and our politics. But as successful as this era was, the most important thing to know about it now is that it is over. Both parties - and both America's left and right - believe or at least act as though it is returning again, it's just around the corner. And it's the other guy's fault that it hasn't rearrived yet.

But it's not coming back. One reason among others is that we will never again see a world in which our economy dominates the world's economy. Beginning in the 1970s, as colonial empires collapsed and economic philosophies were revolutionized, major new nation states entered the same world economy we were in along with billions of new workers and households. At first that represented a boost to us, but as the economic sophistication of these economies evolved this new world meant vast and hard structural shifts for us. As Michael Spence makes clear in his book "The Next Convergence," much of the structural change we see and don't like comes from this changing shape of the world. Falling manufacturing employment, the 20-year slowdown in income growth, a large piece of income inequality, and the polarization of our labor force are all due in part to the changing shape of the global economy. (Just to be clear, the other major factor in all of these structural shifts is technological change.) 

We can't do anything about the shape of the world, but we can figure out how to change and thrive in this new environment. Which means we have to have a new growth model.

Fortunately, another technological revolution is occurring now and all of the elements of a new growth model are coming together. The model plays to American strengths and is there for us develop - unless we choose to be stupid. The model will require entrepreneurial capitalism, independent capital, high levels of private sector investment, equally high levels of infrastructure investment, mayors who see their cities as platforms for growth, and an educational revolution. It requires us to see that technological change can, uniquely, work for us. I've called it an era of mass specialization; it can be much more equitable and environmentally sustainable than the golden era.

And here lies President Obama's second transition task and a huge opportunity. He has to start immediately making this new growth model clear and comprehensible to Americans. He has to offer the hope that there is more to the future than just a repeat of the trends of the past. And he has to begin to propose the public policies that will allow the next growth era to be born. But above all, this will require that President Obama sees equitable, sustainable growth as the core of his governing philosophy for the second term.  Two good places to start with would be to put his endorsement of Simson-Rivlin-Dominici-Bowles in the context of a focus on growth and to make this the theme of his January 2013 State of the Union.

President Obama told me once at a very small breakfast in New York - long before he was president - that he wanted to be a transformational president. I believe him, but I don't think he's achieved that yet. Here's the chance. What could be more transformational, and more truly progressive, than to change America's governing political philosophy, wrench our politics away from its infatuation with wedge issues and a return to the 1950s, and usher in a new era of growth? As I started by saying, the golden ring is out there and the merry-go-round is heading toward it. 

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

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