Carl Camden: Full-Time Employment May Give Way to a Free Agent Economy

Jul 23, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Kelly Services CEO Carl Camden speculates about a future workforce dominated by temporary employees.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. In today's video, Kelly Services CEO Carl Camden speculates about a future workforce dominated by temporary employees.

The CEO of employment firm Kelly Services speculates that in 20 years, less than a third of the American workforce will be directly employed by corporations or governments. Rather, the majority of the population will work as free agents. Kelly Services placed 540,000 temporary employees in 2013, and can serve as a model for human resources firms of the future. In place of government or full-time employers, firms like Kelly Services will become the purveyor of social services on behalf of the freelancers they represent, including insurance, education, and retirement benefits.

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Daily Digest - July 23: It's Been a Good Year for Financial Reform

Jul 23, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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Ignore the Naysayers: Dodd-Frank Reforms Are Finally Paying Off (TNR)

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Ignore the Naysayers: Dodd-Frank Reforms Are Finally Paying Off (TNR)

The past year has seen important successes, like higher capital requirements, writes Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal, and the next steps for financial reform are getting clearer.

We’re Arresting Poor Mothers for Our Own Failures (The Nation)

Bryce Covert points to the policy failures of welfare reform, which requires parents to work or look for work to receive benefits but hasn't provided for child care, leading to recent high-profile arrests.

Obama to Sign Bill Improving Worker Training (Time)

In the first significant legislative reform to job training in a decade, Maya Rhodan says the Obama administration and Congress put training programs on a more forward-looking path.

SEC Is Set to Approve Money-Fund Rules (WSJ)

The new rules target institutional investors over individuals, says Andrew Ackerman, aiming to train investors to accept fluctuations and prevent panicked mass sell-offs.

TaskRabbit Redux (New Yorker)

Adrienne Raphel writes that TaskRabbit's recent relaunch makes it more clear that for all their marketing, online tools for hiring labor or transportation are about commerce, not community.

New on Next New Deal

Dr. Strangelove and the Halbig Decision

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal points out the fallacy in right-wing claims that there is a "doomsday machine" in the Affordable Care Act: doomsday machines only work if you tell people about them.

Full-Time Employment May Give Way to a Free Agent Economy

In his speculation on the future for the Next American Economy project, Carl Camden, CEO of Kelly Services, suggests that temporary employment firms like his will become the purveyors of social services.

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Althea Erickson: What if the Etsy Economy Prevails?

Jul 22, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. Their goal: not to provide a researched analysis, but to stimulate debate on critical questions.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. Their goal: not to provide a researched analysis, but to stimulate debate on critical questions. In today's video, Etsy Public Policy Director Althea Erickson imagines a future economy based on digital entrepreneurship.

Althea Erickson, Public Policy Director for Etsy, describes a possible future in which the "Etsy economy prevails." Over the next 20 years, she says, as the costs of entrepreneurship decline, more and more people will leave low-wage jobs for the gig economy. After an initial period of intensive price competition on market platforms like TaskRabbit and Etsy, the platforms will start serving as organizing institutions and will drive incomes up. Eventually, market platforms will begin to provide services to reduce the economic uncertainty of the gig economy -- the kind of benefits once offered by steady employers, such as retirement savings, health care options, training opportunities, and so on.

"Overall, we will live in the utopian dream of a micro-gig economy where people are self-actualized," Erickson speculates.

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Daily Digest - July 22: Why Net Neutrality is All or Nothing

Jul 22, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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All Aboard for Net Neutrality (In These Times)

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All Aboard for Net Neutrality (In These Times)

Cole Stangler quotes Roosevelt Institute Fellow Susan Crawford as he makes the case that the FCC should stop dancing around net neutrality and embrace common carrier regulation of the Internet.

Are Auto Insurance Companies Red-Lining Poor, Urban Drivers? (The Guardian)

Auto insurance rates are frequently determined by zip code, and risk factors like crime don't fully explain the price differences. Devin Fergus says redlining, or charging higher prices to minorities, may be to blame.

Obama Signs Historic LGBT Non-Discrimination Order (Slate)

Mark Joseph Stern calls the order, which prohibits federal contractors from discriminating based on sexual orientation or gender identity, Obama's biggest gay rights achievement since ending "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

Businesses Need to Spend More. The Future of the Economy Depends on It. (NYT)

Increased capital spending by businesses would create jobs, and would also generate the productivity gains that make the economy more competitive over the long term, writes Neil Irwin.

Fed Researchers Optimistic on Long-Term Unemployment Drop (Bloomberg News)

Jeff Kearns reports on the Federal Reserve's reasons for optimism, which include signs that the long-term unemployed are still connected to the labor force and don't have significantly more trouble finding jobs.

New on Next New Deal

Lifelong Roosevelt Connections Help Students Lead Policy Change

Meeting alumni in her role as the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network Special Initiatives Intern has shown Madelyn Schorr that students' ideas benefit from alumni input and assistance.

The Etsy Economy Prevails

In her speculation on the future for the Next American Economy project, Althea Erickson, Public Policy Director at Etsy, imagines a gig-based economy in which market platforms provide benefits like health care.

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David Autor: Why Technological Innovation Could Increase Inequality

Jul 21, 2014

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind.

The Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Their assignment: be bold, and leave the conventional wisdom -- and their own opinions -- behind. Their goal: not to provide a researched analysis, but to stimulate debate on critical questions.In the debut entry in our new video speculation series, MIT economist David Autor talks about the future of economic polarization.

There is a long-running debate between those who worry robots are taking our jobs and those who scoff at that “lump of labor fallacy” as just another version of Luddite thinking. In the video below, Professor David Autor, the MIT economist famous for his description of how technology has helped hollow out the middle class, outlines the debate and describes how it might be possible that both sides are right.

Professor Autor discusses a scenario in which technological innovation continues to reduce the need for low-skilled labor while increasing the demand for higher-skilled workers, thus increasing wages at the top while reducing wages at the bottom.

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Daily Digest - July 21: What Young Women Voters Want

Jul 21, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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Not Your Father's Electorate (Richard Heffner's Open Mind)

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Not Your Father's Electorate (Richard Heffner's Open Mind)

Roosevelt Institute Vice President of Networks Taylor Jo Isenberg discusses the issues that young female voters are focused on today, zeroing in on economic concerns like paid leave.

The FCC Wants to Let Cities Build Their Own Broadband. House Republicans Disagree. (Vox)

Timothy B. Lee draws on Roosevelt Institute Fellow Susan Crawford's work to explain why municipalities should be allowed to build publicly-owned high-speed Internet networks.

The Bad Boss Tax (In These Times)

Sarah Jaffe looks at the "bad business fee" plan developing in Minnesota, which would fine employers for the de facto subsidies they receive when their workers are on public assistance.

Republicans Want to Control, Not End, the Fed (WaPo)

A GOP proposal would force the Federal Reserve to choose a mathematical rule for setting interest rates, but Matt O'Brien says that would be a hugely ineffective way to create policy.

Rep. Keith Ellison Wants to Make Union Organizing a Civil Right (MSNBC)

Ned Resnikoff reports on the Congressman's planned bill, which would allow workers to individually sue their employers for anti-union retaliation.

Part-Time Schedules, Full-Time Headaches (NYT)

Continuing his look at the problems that on-call schedules create for part-time workers, Steven Greenhouse emphasizes the near-impossibility of getting ahead without regular schedules.

The Last Hope for Extending Long-Term Unemployment Insurance May Have Just Gone Poof (MoJo)

Patrick Caldwell writes that with the GOP using a bit of budget trickery called pension smoothing to pay for highways, Democrats have to find a new option for funding long-term unemployment insurance.

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What Will the American Economy Look Like 26 Years From Today?

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter introduces a series of speculations on the future of the American economy, with a focus on changes in technology, cities, and labor.

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What Will the American Economy Look Like 26 Years From Today?

Jul 21, 2014Bo Cutter

Earlier this summer, the Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Find out what they had to say.

Participants in our recent convening speculated:

Earlier this summer, the Next American Economy project brought together 30 experts from various disciplines to envision tomorrow's economic and political challenges and develop today's solutions. Find out what they had to say.

Participants in our recent convening speculated:

“The post-WWII model of full-time, permanent employment proved itself the historical aberration we predicted: in 2040, only 12 percent of the American workforce is directly employed by corporate enterprises or government departments, and the average length of time spent on any one job is under six months.”

“New platforms and services will spring up to solve the problems of the micro-gig economy using distributed, peer-to-peer models of social insurance that will be hyper-local, but not based on geography. They will be based on the micro-niche identities that we build online -- accountants for bacon. Latinos who play Dungeons & Dragons. What have you.”  

“In the late '20s, the Know Everything Party assumed their final national political victories of mandating every American household be limited to three robots, one 3D printer, and own a minimum of three guns would be enough to secede and be left alone. After 15 years of explosive growth in income and wealth inequality, unimaginable to us in 2014, it all came to a head in our second Civil War, or what historians are calling the Bloodless War.”

Guided by the belief that we are on the precipice of fundamental and lasting economic change, the Next American Economy project gathered a group of 30 academics, business leaders, organizers, and technologists, and asked them to envision the long-term economic and political future of the United States. We gave our participants free rein to be bold in their speculations – to deviate from data, the conventional wisdom, or even their own expert opinions. The goal was not to predict the future, but to debate a series of critical questions: (a) Are we at an inflection point in the nature of innovation and technological change? (b) How will the rise of cities change the geography of economic activity? (c) How will economic trends alter the nature of work and employment? (d) Is the trend of widening income inequality likely to continue or stagnate?

What followed was a series of prescient, thoughtful, and often hilarious three- to four-minute speculations on topics ranging from the gig economy to the future of finance, from imminent civil war to the transformation of Google into a car company, and many more. Each speculation on its own could foster a day of debate and a sea of responses. For this reason, we will release one video speculation a day for the next three weeks, starting with David Autor’s description of economic polarization.

Our recent meeting was a first step toward our broader goal of identifying the trends likely to shape the future in order to identify the policy interventions needed to ensure the best possible outcome. The group identified key topics for further investigation and also found some areas of broad consensus.

  • 79 percent of participants believe “technological change will persist and will be big enough to disrupt business-as-usual."

  • 42 percent believe “a new paradigm of work is emerging and will change the nature of jobs for a large percentage of the population” and an additional 29 percent believe “a new paradigm has already emerged and you East Coast intellectuals are way behind the times.”

  • A total of 74 percent believe that even if an entrepreneurship booms leads to productivity growth it will not lead to job creation.

  • Nearly half (48 percent) believe that if inequality trends continue, the political backlash will be so extreme that our current system will change drastically in the next 25 years.

You can learn more about our project and find our forthcoming research on our website.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is Director of the Next American Economy project. He was formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm, and served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

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Daily Digest - July 18: BRICS Bank Shifts Balance of Power in the Global Economy

Jul 18, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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Nobel Economist Joseph Stiglitz Hails New BRICS Bank Challenging U.S.-Dominated World Bank & IMF (Democracy Now)

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Nobel Economist Joseph Stiglitz Hails New BRICS Bank Challenging U.S.-Dominated World Bank & IMF (Democracy Now)

Roosevelt Institute Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz says this bank will support the developing world's needs, and reflects fundamental shifts in global economic power.

Port Trucking Industry Rips Off Drivers, Responsible Employers, and Taxpayers (The Hill)

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Richard Kirsch looks at the port truck drivers' strike in California as evidence of the need for stronger policy on independent contractors.

Help a City, Write Its Budget (Bloomberg View)

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Susan Crawford endorses participatory budgeting as one of the best ways to build strong civic engagement, and says technology can help.

The Economy’s Big Mystery: Why Workers are Disappearing From the Job Market (WaPo)

Zachary Goldfarb looks at two theories from the White House Council of Economic Advisors that attempt to explain the drop in labor force participation since the recession began.

Stop the Tax Inversions of Free-Riding Corporations (AJAM)

By failing to pass laws that prevent companies from reincorporating aboard to avoid taxes, David Cay Johnston says Congress is supporting their shirking of responsibility.

What Happens When Detroit Shuts Off the Water of 100,000 People (The Atlantic)

Rose Hackman writes that Detroit residents have been forced to pay bills beyond their means or turn to illegal means to access water. The UN has declared this a human rights violation.

States with Better 'Business Climates' Also Have Higher Inequality (CityLab)

A new study finds an unfortunate connection between policies that encourage business and economic growth and rising inequality, writes Richard Florida.

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Daily Digest - July 17: Are We Building a Sustainable Future?

Jul 17, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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Why This One UN Report on Sustainable Development is Different from the Rest (UN Dispatch)

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Why This One UN Report on Sustainable Development is Different from the Rest (UN Dispatch)

Campus Network Senior Fellow for Defense and Diplomacy Nehemiah Rolle says the Global Sustainable Development Report incorporates a broad array of both science and policy data.

Will a Fox, Time Warner Deal Be Approved? (Bloomberg TV)

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Susan Crawford says the Federal Communications Commission has an interest in regulating these big mergers to protect the future of U.S. communications.

Imagining Economic Policy Focused on Women (Real News Network)

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson points to minimum wage, work sharing, and paid family leave as key policies for improving women's opportunities and thus the economy as a whole.

Punish the Executives, Not Just the Banks (New Yorker)

The short-term incentives for individuals on Wall Street continue to encourage risky and destructive business practices, writes James Surowiecki, which is why bank settlements aren't effecting change.

America’s Unrequited Corporate Love Affair (MSNBC)

Timothy Noah says the trend toward reincorporating abroad to avoid U.S. taxes is only part of a larger negative shift in the relationship between American corporations and the state.

Hobby Lobby's Harvest: A Religious Exemption for LGBT Discrimination? (LA Times)

Michael Hiltzik looks to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. to explain why President Obama should not allow a religious exemption in his executive order barring discrimination against LBGT workers.

New on Next New Deal

Fighting Bad Science in the Senate

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Andrea Flynn says that even when they won't pass, strongly pro-choice bills like the Women's Health Protection Act are a means of fighting anti-choice falsehoods.

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Daily Digest - July 16: Flawed Models for Understanding the Wage Fight

Jul 16, 2014Rachel Goldfarb

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A Biased Report on the Minimum Wage? (East Bay Express)

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A Biased Report on the Minimum Wage? (East Bay Express)

Darwin BondGraham speaks to Roosevelt Institute Fellow Annette Bernhardt, who says a study criticizing plans for a $12.25 minimum wage in Oakland used bad methodology.

Obama Administration Urges Immediate Action on 'Inversions' (WSJ)

The administration has asked Congress to put an end to these reincorporations abroad for tax purposes, and called instead for "economic patriotism," reports John D. McKinnon.

House Votes to Pay for Roads With Underfunded Pensions (The Wire)

Arit John explains the latest short-term plan for funding the Highway Trust Fund, which he says involves spending future tax revenue now and will lead to more shortfalls in the long run.

Hobby Lobby: A New Tool for Crushing Workplace Unionization? (MSNBC)

Ned Resnikoff explains how the Hobby Lobby decision could play out if an employer claims religious opposition to collective bargaining, as is already permitted for religious schools.

A Push to Give Steadier Shifts to Part-Timers (NYT)

Steven Greenhouse looks at the momentum behind laws that aid part-time workers by requiring further advance notice, extra pay for on-call work, and preference for more hours.

New on Next New Deal

Search Models, Mass Unemployment, and the Minimum Wage

Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal looks at what's wrong with the models some economists are using to understand high unemployment and prolonged job vacancies.

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