After the Convention and Election, Obama Must Govern in Reality

Sep 6, 2012Bo Cutter

The conventions are all about having fun, but if Obama wins reelection, he has to get serious about his governing strategy.

The conventions are all about having fun, but if Obama wins reelection, he has to get serious about his governing strategy.

Nowadays, you have to see both parties’ conventions as theme parks or Three Stooges humor. As a viewer, you’re Dorothy in Oz or Alice through the looking glass. Conventions used to be about making a choice of nominee. Then, for a while, they were about making a choice and marketing. Now they're only about marketing. They are not about truth; heck, major campaign spokespeople for Romney have directly rebutted the notion of truth. They are not about policy, and they certainly have nothing to do with governing. They are about wearing funny hats, having some fun, and insulting the other guy. For me the high point of the whole Republican convention was ol’ Clint Eastwood talking to the chair.

Until Bill Clinton showed up, the Democratic convention wasn't a lot different. To alter slightly a phrase President Clinton has used, he "put the corn where the hogs can get to it." No one from the Obama campaign, including President Obama, has ever put the arguments for a second Obama term or against a Romney term so well, or even come close. Having worked for President Clinton, I start out liking the man and in awe of his capacity to hold an audience. But his abilities go beyond that; he takes policy and governing seriously, he deals with his political opponents rather than simply dismissing them, and he respects his audience. His arguments are never simple or trivial. He made this convention by himself, and he made Mitt Romney look small.

Now it's President Obama's turn. I hope he takes a risk and talks about the realities of his very likely second term. The almost entirely substance-free Republican convention gave him the license to do it, and Bill Clinton gave him the political space. We'll see. But in any case, the odds are high that President Obama is going to have to talk for real about his second term in about 60 days.

What we know generally is that conventions rarely affect elections; the average "bounce" is two to four points and even that goes away within days. Romney's bounce looks to have been on the very low end of that range and to have gone away. President Obama will probably see roughly the same result. The truth is there are very, very few truly undecided votes out there to move one way or the other.

And in the absence of a big, sustained bounce, the various oddsmakers say this election is heading toward an Obama win. The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog gives Obama a 75 percent chance of winning, with 307 electoral votes. Nate Silver's analysis says there wasn't any Romney bounce. Election market sites Intrade and Iowa Election Markets give Obama a 59 percent and 64 percent probability of winning. And Real Clear Politics in its "no toss-up states" projection gives the President 332 electoral votes. All of the same sites suggest that Republicans easily hold the House and have a marginally better than 50 percent chance of winning the Senate (in almost any scenario, the Republicans gain seats in the Senate).

Results could be different; if you toss an unbiased coin a million times, there are long runs of either heads or tails. But this doesn't feel like a "change" election to me. We're probably in for another four years of (very) divided government. So we move to reality. How will President Obama choose to manage his presidency under the circumstances he will surely face? More to the point, how will he, from the start of his second term, convince his audience that he intends to manage his presidency?

As I've said a number of times, I do not think this administration has been good at strategic management. Harold MacMillan was right when he said that events were the biggest factor in the success of any prime minister, but there are still choices to be made. There were in President Obama's first term, and there will be in his second. In this administration's first term, there were four critical points at which I see little evidence that a hard-eyed strategic choice was involved: (1) an early over-interpretation of his mandate, (2) the decision to go for health reform and, in essence, drop ownership of the economic story, (3) a decision not to pick a fight with Congress in March 2011 over shutting down the government -- a fight he would have won, and (4) a decision not to endorse some version of Simpson-Bowles or Rivlin-Domenici.

If the president is to accomplish anything, his administration has to be better strategically and harder-edged from the start of the second term. If it is better in these ways, I would argue that the chances of a successful second term are much higher than generally believed for two reasons. First, after the Republican far right indulges in a post-Romney-defeat ritual bloodletting, the party as a whole is going to realize that it has been taken down a blind alley and has to find a way back. Republicans will have to make some sort of deal. Second, the U.S. economy is about to start performing better than we expect.

The basic choice the president faces is either to clear the underbrush and set the stage for focusing on our real future, or continue today's protracted standoff between the current left's and right's version of the 1950s as the ideal society. The current squabbling about debt, deficits, taxes, spending, and entitlements is mostly about the underbrush and is preventing us from looking at the future. And the squabbling is occurring mostly around the contours of an agreement everyone knows has to be reached.

I do not in any sense mean these issues are unimportant, and I certainly do not mean they aren't hard. But we are not Spain or Greece; reasonable solutions exist, and we have time if we act. If we put ourselves on a path that plausibly solves these problems -- within the range of what "solve" means in politics -- over a decade, then we can move on. But we have to start. The president would do himself -- and us -- a big favor if he put these issues in his rear view mirror by endorsing Simpson-Bowles, or something as close to it as he can get, on November 7. To generalize that point, the president needs a strategy to win during the impending post-election lame duck session of Congress and to avoid looking like just another creature in that zoo.

If he does this -- which is undeniably difficult -- he can then spend his entire second term focusing on another truth that becomes increasingly apparent: America has a very bright future if we can somehow avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic Presidents.

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Romney's Missing Link: What Caused Our Economic Crisis?

Sep 4, 2012Richard Kirsch

Mitt Romney wants voters to blame Barack Obama for mishandling the crisis, but he'd also like you to forget who caused it.

Mitt Romney wants voters to blame Barack Obama for mishandling the crisis, but he'd also like you to forget who caused it.

In his acceptance speech, Mitt Romney tried hard to communicate how much he empathizes with the economic squeeze on middle-class families. Last Thursday in Tampa, he talked about a symbolic worker who lost one good paying job and replaced it with “two jobs at nine bucks an hour and fewer benefits.” And twice he emphasized that a majority of Americans no longer believe that our children will do better than we have done.

But one thing was missing. Romney made absolutely no attempt to explain how families ended up in such precarious financial straits. Not a word referring to what happened before 2008, other than “this president can tell us it was someone else's fault.” For Mitt, the recession was a spontaneous event. It just happened; Obama inherited it and hasn’t been up to the task of fixing the crisis. So it’s time to give Romney, the job creator, a chance to fix it.

Romney knows that any reference to the recent past will evoke toxic memories of George W. Bush. The last thing he needs to do is to remind voters that the last Republican president triggered the nation’s economic crash. Instead, he wants Americans to start the script they are bringing into the voting booth this year on November 2008. It’s okay, he’s telling us, to accept our disappointment with President Obama, and give the businessman – who really does understand our plight and what it takes to create jobs – a try. After all, when things are this bad, what do you have to lose?

The missing link in Romney’s story is a huge invitation for President Obama to fill in the blanks. It provides an opportunity for him to convince hard-pressed Americans that they should stick with him through tough times. It is a story that President Obama knows how to tell powerfully. But it’s not one that he has been telling on the campaign trail.

President Obama is not starting the clock in November 2008 like Romney did. He is reminding people that they don’t want to “go back.” But the references in his campaign speeches to the Bush years are fleeting; most of his speeches are contrasts between his agenda and Romney-Ryan vision. He absolutely needs to make that contrast, but the problem for swing voters – those Americans who are feeling the intense financial pressure and loss of hope – is that they don’t have a way of understanding which candidate’s program will work better for them. These are people who aren’t ideological and who respond to personalities, which is why Obama has been attacking Romney’s Bain record so hard and why Romney is telling voters that you can like the president but still not vote for him.

What would help move these voters to embrace the Obama agenda and keep them from voting for Romney out of desperation is a story that links how we got into this financial mess with why the Obama agenda is the better way forward. That is what the most powerful political narratives do. The right has a broad and easily understood story about limited government and free enterprise. But the left has a powerful story too, and when he wants to, as he did last December 6th in Osawatomie, Kansas, the president tells it as well as anyone. Here are sections from Obama’s speech last year that lay out how we got into this mess, and in doing so, set up why we need to go forward with him:

Long before the recession hit, hard work stopped paying off for too many people. Fewer and fewer of the folks who contributed to the success of our economy actually benefited from that success. Those at the very top grew wealthier from their incomes and their investments -- wealthier than ever before. But everybody else struggled with costs that were growing and paychecks that weren't -- and too many families found themselves racking up more and more debt just to keep up….

When middle-class families can no longer afford to buy the goods and services that businesses are selling, when people are slipping out of the middle class, it drags down the entire economy from top to bottom. [Emphasis added.] America was built on the idea of broad-based prosperity, of strong consumers all across the country.…

Inequality also distorts our democracy. It gives an outsized voice to the few who can afford high-priced lobbyists and unlimited campaign contributions, and it runs the risk of selling out our democracy to the highest bidder. It leaves everyone else rightly suspicious that the system in Washington is rigged against them, that our elected representatives aren't looking out for the interests of most Americans.…

Finally, a strong middle class can only exist in an economy where everyone plays by the same rules, from Wall Street to Main Street.

In his acceptance speech this past Thursday, Mitt Romney left a huge hole to be filled in our economic narrative. Let’s hope that this Thursday in Charlotte, President Obama fills it as eloquently as he did in Kansas last December. By doing so, he will tell a powerful story that will show those swing voters that he’s not only a nice guy doing his best, but that he understands how we got into this mess and will keep working to get us out of it. 

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a Senior Adviser to USAction, and the author of Fighting for Our Health. He was National Campaign Manager of Health Care for America Now during the legislative battle to pass reform.

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The New New Deal and the Little-Known Transformation of American Government

Aug 31, 2012Mark Schmitt

The New New Deal isn't just another book about the White House or Congress. It tells the story of what happens when laws are passed and governing begins.

The New New Deal isn't just another book about the White House or Congress. It tells the story of what happens when laws are passed and governing begins.

What's the best book about the Obama administration, particularly on domestic policy? A few months ago, I would have recommended Noam Scheiber's The Escape Artists, but The New New Deal, by Michael Grunwald of Time, is not only the best book about the administration and its immediate challenges, but perhaps the only one that will (and should) continue to be read long after 2016. This post isn't a full review of the book (for that, I recommend Michael Cohen in The Guardian, but others are forthcoming) – rather, I want to highlight two aspects of the book that both made me feel a little guilty and got me thinking.

The narrative takes place in three locations: at the White House, in Congress as it interacts with the White House over the stimulus, and deep in the executive branch of government. Grunwald is very good on the drama in the White House, as economic advisors including Larry Summers, Christina Romer, and Jared Bernstein struggled to find a formula to contain the economic disaster that was also politically viable in an environment where neither politicians nor the public fully appreciated the depth of the crisis or the logic of Keynesian stimulus. If his book has none of the contrived Oval Office melodrama of Ron Suskind's Confidence Men, it's because Grunwald understands the subject, and thus knows that the range of options – and the range of real disagreement -- was not that wide.

He amply demonstrates that the great alternative-universe fantasy -- in which the stimulus could have been much, much larger and only political malpractice held it back – is exactly that, a fantasy. The miracle is that the economic stimulus, even if inadequate to fully restore the economy's lost output, was as large as it was, and managed to contain such a multitude of new ideas. Nonetheless, Grunwald acknowledges and digs deeply into the errors that the White House made, such as asking Romer and Bernstein to put forth a projection of unemployment rates with and without the stimulus – which may have been accurate in estimating the difference between the two, but not the overall employment picture.

The New New Deal also shines in its accounting of the legislative response, particularly the Republican opposition to the stimulus -- or, more correctly, to Obama. Grunwald offers a good model for journalists that it's possible to do more than just transcribe something like, “Senator X said he opposed the stimulus because it didn't contain enough tax cuts and infrastructure spending.” When a politician's stated positions make no sense and are glaringly inconsistent, a real journalist can say just that. His parsing of Senator Judd Gregg's shifting logic on the stimulus as he flirted with becoming Obama's Secretary of Commerce is masterful, as is his interview with former Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, a moderate Republican whose amiable rationales make even less sense than those of conservatives.

But The New New Deal made me feel guilty in two big ways. First, I've on occasion made the argument that progressives don't really have an adequate set of new ideas, especially about the future of the economy. But as Grunwald shows, not only are there ideas, but many of them are being put into place as we speak, from the Race to the Top education reforms to the birth of an American solar energy and battery industries to the mundane work of weatherization of millions of homes and businesses to save energy. I didn't fully appreciate the scope of the changes to the Unemployment Insurance system, for example. It's far from sufficient to offset the lost potential from the recession; there's a lot more to be done to rebuild the foundations of a broad and secure middle class, and some of it can't be done by government. But the germ of the ideas that will build the future are there.

Why has it been so easy to overlook that? That's the second point on which I feel guilty. Like most writers about public affairs, I tend to focus somewhat on electoral politics and on legislative politics and policy. Most media coverage is grossly overweighted toward electoral politics – that's why there are 15,000 reporters in Tampa to cover a fully scripted non-event. But even those of us who try to focus more on policy and legislation often overlook the big third dimension, which is government. Virtually nothing is written about the actual implementation of policy in the executive branch or in the states. Newspaper coverage is limited to a watchdog role that seeks out stories like the failed loan to Solyndra, which is how that one failure (which Grunwald shows was already underway in the last days of the Bush administration, under an existing loan program) could become the proxy for the entire stimulus, or as they call it in Tampa, the “failed stimulus.” Most federal agencies have no journalists at all covering them on a daily basis, other than reporters for specialized publications and industry newsletters.

While there are books comparable to Grunwald's about legislation (The Bill, by Steve Waldman, about the early Clinton public service and education initiatives, Showdown at Gucci Gulch, about the 1986 tax reform, and the classroom classic, The Dance of Legislation, by Eric Redman, which is about the 1970s), very few continue to look at what happened in government after the legislation passed. The richest sections of Grunwald's book open up the internal politics of government: one great set piece tells the story of the Department of Energy's office responsible for administering weatherization assistance for low-income families, one that had been a “turkey farm” (a term commonly used in public administration to refer to an unimportant office to which useless employees are assigned) and couldn't even get funds out the door. Given an impossible assignment in the stimulus – to weatherize 600,000 homes – an entepreneurial young leader, Claire Broido Johnson, turned the office around and exceeded the goal.

Such stories, along with accounts of the ARPA-E clean-energy research program and the Race to the Top education program, show that the Obama administration is changing government in ways that go much further than the “Reinventing Government” initiatives of the Clinton-Gore era, which focused mainly on government's relation to citizens, who would be treated more like customers. Creative, ambitious leadership is encouraged, and real competitions, like Race to the Top, are replacing the formula- or earmark-funded programs of the past. It took a while to get started (which is why some of it was ineffective as short-term Keynesian stimulus), but its long-term effects on both government and the economy are likely to be profound.

To restore confidence in government, it is necessary to do all these things – to make government more responsive, imaginative, tough on failure but supportive of promising ideas. But it won't do any good if people don't know about it, and the phrase “failed stimulus” goes unchallenged. The New New Deal is not only one of the two best books ever written about government (the other is Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner), but an acute reminder to every journalist, political writer and political analyst to pay more attention to real stuff of government, which doesn't happen at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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What Could Romney's Secret Housing Plan Look Like?

Aug 24, 2012Mike Konczal

Josh Barro, writing from his new column at Bloomberg, wonders if Mitt Romney has a secret economic plan to fix housing: "But where I think a big improvement from Romney is likely is on housing policy. While Romney has been conspicuously silent on housing, one of his top advisers, Glenn Hubbard, advocates an aggressive plan to restructure mortgages.

Josh Barro, writing from his new column at Bloomberg, wonders if Mitt Romney has a secret economic plan to fix housing: "But where I think a big improvement from Romney is likely is on housing policy. While Romney has been conspicuously silent on housing, one of his top advisers, Glenn Hubbard, advocates an aggressive plan to restructure mortgages. The Hubbard plan would lower mortgage rates and reduce principal for underwater borrowers, both of which would stimulate the economy. That's a tough sell to Republicans in Congress -- but they would be much more open to it under a Republican president than a Democratic one."

As David Dayen noted in a great, comprehensive Salon piece, none of this matters if Congress doesn't extend a special law put into place during the crisis that keeps principal reduction, even reduction from a short sale, from being treated as income, and thus requiring it to be taxed. The law is set to expire on Dec. 31, 2012. Extending it has bipartisan support in the Senate, but none in the House so far. I can't emphasize how much this matters - homeowners would get a giant tax bill under any relief program, making them difficult to do. It isn't clear what Romney would do about this.

It's worth noting that the Hubbard plan is very similar to the ongoing Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) in that it uses the GSEs to refinance underwater mortgages. HARP was revamped earlier this year to HARP 2.0, which removed a 125 percent loan-to-value limit and waived certain representations and warranties for lenders. It's still early, but it looks like there is a big increase in the number of underwater mortgages refinancing (FHFA data). Over 40 percent of the HARP refinances in July were from mortgages with an LTV over 125 percent. As will become relevant in this post, their proposal is GSE driven and avoids bankruptcy reform, as "moving mortgage debt into bankruptcy courts could well reduce future credit availability and hamper long-run economic growth and homeownership."
 
(The original Hubbard plan from 2008 featured mandatory principal writedowns for negative equity, with the losses shared equally by the lender and the government. In exchange, the government gets a lien on the home worth 20 percent of any increase in value. This is much different than current HARP policy and constitutes a really bold approach. However, this negative equity and shared appreciation part is entirely missing from the current 2011 version of the proposal. I'm not sure why Hubbard dropped that section; certainly it's not because the housing market has done better than expected.)
 
How can we analyize what potential solutions a Romney presidency could embrace? There's normally one dimension we think of in terms of housing crisis policy, and that is how aggressive we are in dealing with underwater debt and foreclosures. Should we refinance underwater mortgages to create lower monthly payments and take advantage of low interest rates? Should we go further and reduce principal debt, either outright or in exchange for some form of equity claim?
 
But there's another, equally important dimension, and that's the mechanism through which these policies are enacted. What is the vehicle that will be used to execute policy? There are four general cases that can be put into play.
 
The first policy mechanism tries to go through the financial sector and the mortgage servicing system as it currently exists. This takes the market as it is and tries to nudge agents to act a different way with various incentives. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) program does this by trying to nudge the industry with payments to make modifications that lower interest rates and payments. HAMP was consciously not designed to do principal reductions, though it does have a very small, limited program now. 
 
There's a second policy vehicle driven by the fact that the GSEs are in conservatorship under the FHFA. The FHFA's mission is to "Provide effective supervision, regulation and housing mission oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks to promote their safety and soundness, support housing finance and affordable housing, and support a stable and liquid mortgage market," which can support a variety of policy ideas. As mentioned above, HARP is responsible for refinancing GSE loans, and the Hubbard plan focuses on refinancing through the GSEs. Timothy Geithner's recent effort to get the FHFA to support principal reduction through a program called Home Affordable Modification Program Principal Reduction Alternative (HAMP PRA) was recently rejected by FHFA acting director Ed DeMarco. Several progressives responded by calling for DeMarco to be fired.
 
There's a third policy vehicle designed to change the basic legal framework for how bankruptcy works. Bankruptcy law could be modified, even temporarily, to deal with the consequences of the housing bust. The mass modification program (also see here at Slate) proposed by Eric Posner and Luigi Zingales, for instance, worked through bankruptcy law. The failed effort to pass a "cramdown" or lien-stripping amendment was entirely about letting judges write down mortgage debt in bankruptcy.
 
And then there's the fourth mechanism of direct government policy. Here the government actively goes out and purchases and manages mortgages. The New Deal created the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) to directly purchase mortgages; we could recreate such a mechanism today. Both John McCain and Hillary Clinton argued for such programs during the 2008 campaign. Senator Merkley's recent plan would do this for refinancing; eminent domain proposals would do this for principal reduction.

Let's grid out those two dimensions:

With this grid in mind, let's re-examine the high-level critique of the Obama administration's housing policy. During the debate over the second round of TARP, the then-incoming Obama administration promised to take action on bankruptcy reform and hinted toward direct government action, or the top two rows in the grid. Larry Summers wrote to Harry Reid promising action on "reforming our bankruptcy laws." Donna Edwards wrote that she "appreciate[d] the personal commitment that Senator Obama" would look "at a program such as one that existed in the 1930s to 1950s to work directly with homeowners."

This did not happen. Timothy Geithner was against direct government action from the beginning, as this letter he wrote to Brad Miller shows. The administration was publicly silent and privately pushed against reforming bankruptcy. The administration also seemed asleep at the wheel when it came to pushing for big action through the GSEs, making no recess appointments and only updating HARP and pushing for principal writedowns this year.

Their main effort was to work through the already existing mortgage framework. This effort has largely been seen as a failure. This isn't surprising, as there are well-documented problems with our current mortgage servicing system. The same problems with Wall Street slicing and dicing mortgages that were present when the housing bubble was inflating are still there now that it has collapsed.

We often don't get second chances in life, but the Obama administration had a second chance at a serious reform of this broken system when news of the scandals surrounding financial fraud started breaking. Though there's still a taskforce out there somewhere, I think it is safe to say the administration wanted to remove these problems rather than take them on directly, which would have opened up a space to reform the current system. They succeeded. This only leaves working through the system.

Maybe your eyes roll when you read the term "neoliberal hegemony," but there's something to the idea that the Obama administration simply felt that the only legimate way to try and deal with the foreclosure crisis was by nudging the incentives of various markets this or that way. The market is the ultimate, efficient arbiter of value, and policy should only seek to adjust some incentives here and there. Measures to intervene directly by the government, or measures to change the way property is regulated through bankruptcy, were ignored right away. Those actions require the government to act as a force in the marketplace directly, or to acknowledge that the economy is created through law and can be adjusted accordingly, both of which are taboo under neoliberal economic ideology.

Working within a system, no matter how aggressive your actions are, means you don't ultimately have to challenge that system. As Harper's wrote back in 2009, in a great essay on President Obama as Hoover, "The common thread running through all of Obama’s major proposals right now is that they are labyrinthine solutions designed mainly to avoid conflict." In a practical sense, for Romney to go bigger than Obama on housing would require either adjusting the bankruptcy code, running a government program that directly intervenes in the marketplace in a big way, or firing DeMarco. In the theoretical sense, it would likely require challenging the reigning paradigm in political economy as well as challenging the current financial system. Are these actions realistic for Romney?

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. Follow or contact the Rortybomb blog:

  

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New Deal Numerology: The Not-So-Mighty Middle

Aug 23, 2012Tim Price

This week's numbers: 51%; 85%; 2.3%; 87%; 62%

51%... is a diminished number. That’s how many Americans were part of the middle class in 2011, according to the Pew Research Center. That’s down 10% since 1971 and represents the only way the U.S. has slimmed down in the middle since then.

This week's numbers: 51%; 85%; 2.3%; 87%; 62%

51%... is a diminished number. That’s how many Americans were part of the middle class in 2011, according to the Pew Research Center. That’s down 10% since 1971 and represents the only way the U.S. has slimmed down in the middle since then.

85%... is a struggling number. That’s how many middle class Americans say their lifestyle is getting harder to maintain. Keeping up with the Joneses presents new challenges when the Joneses are underemployed and underwater on their mortgage.

2.3%... is a middling number. That’s how much the median net worth of middle class households has grown since 1983. The trickle-down effect Republicans started touting around then has turned out to be an awfully slow drip.

87%... is a bountiful number. That’s how much the median net worth of the wealthiest households has grown during the same period. Instead of lifting all boats, the rising tide seems to be lifting the luxury yachts and capsizing the canoes.

62%... is a frustrated number. That’s how many middle class Americans blame Congress for their hardships. But policymakers haven't completely ignored the problem; they’ve spent years discussing how their opponents aren’t doing anything about it.

Tim Price is Deputy Editor of Next New Deal. Follow him on Twitter @txprice.

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A Brief History of the U.S. Government and the Economy

Aug 15, 2012

Check out this Prezi highlighting 16 of the most significant contributions government has made to the U.S. economy over the last 200 years:

http://prezi.com/srpyvqqn8bff/rediscovering-government/

Check out this Prezi highlighting 16 of the most significant contributions government has made to the U.S. economy over the last 200 years:

http://prezi.com/srpyvqqn8bff/rediscovering-government/


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Social Security’s Enduring Legacy: Adaptability

Aug 14, 2012Mark Schmitt

On the 77th anniversary of Social Security, we're celebrating what has made the program so important and why it continues to be vital today. Mark Schmitt lauds it for its ability to provide security throughout tectonic shifts in our economy and society. Read the rest of our coverage here.

On the 77th anniversary of Social Security, we're celebrating what has made the program so important and why it continues to be vital today. Mark Schmitt lauds it for its ability to provide security throughout tectonic shifts in our economy and society. Read the rest of our coverage here.

If Franklin D. Roosevelt rejoined the living tomorrow, he probably wouldn't recognize Social Security, his greatest domestic legacy. That might sound like something a critic or skeptic of the program would say, as if it had broken faith with Roosevelt's vision or expanded far beyond its original intent.

But, in fact, what Roosevelt would see would be Social Security's greatest virtue: its adaptability to changing circumstances. Social Security has survived, thrived, and continued to provide a base level of economic security not only through big macroeconomic shifts (such as the inflation of the 1970s) but also the transformations and uncertainties in our individual and family lives. That adaptability and continuous reexamination and improvement is the quality most in keeping with the experimental, pragmatic nature of the New Deal.

Between 1935 and 2000, there were 30 major legislative changes to Social Security, roughly one every two years, under Republican and Democratic administrations. In 1939, it expanded its focus from the individual worker to the family, adding benefits for surviving spouses and young children. In 1950, it expanded to cover domestic and farm workers, whose omission was the atrocious compromise FDR had made to secure the support of Southern conservatives. In successive changes from 1954 through 1960, a disability program was created, and in the 1970s, benefits were indexed to inflation. Changes in 1977 and 1983 adjusted the financing of the program, changing the formula for benefits to reduce costs and build up more of a reserve (the Trust Fund) so that future retirees financed some of their own benefits. In 2000, the earnings test for Social Security recipients was eliminated. And while Social Security was created with the assumption of a male breadwinner, over 77 years it has been adjusted to account for the changing role of women in the workforce and the family.

The point of this history is a reminder that Social Security is not a fixed, unchanging thing, a jewel of the New Deal to be worshipped. Rather, it is an incredibly adaptive, responsive structure on which we've been able to build several different forms of economic and family security and adjust to radical changes in the economy, family, industry, education, and expectations over the years.

It's become routine to say that Social Security is an industrial age program that's ill suited, or at least needs to be modernized, to deal with information age challenges, but it's telling that this cliché never gets to specifics. It's true that the current era presents dramatic new challenges to economic security: household debt far larger than in the 1930s, 1950s, or even the 1980s (when most households didn't even have access to consumer credit); the rapid decline since 1979 in the number of defined-benefit pension plans; the disappearance of lifetime employment at a single employer; and, most recently, the high rates of long-term unemployment among people in their late 50s and early 60s. But for almost every one of these changes, there's an answer within Social Security that's as good as any other. We could address the insecurity around pensions by creating a universal 401(k) account, but we could do exactly the same thing, with far less complexity and hassle, simply by expanding Social Security. We could construct some new form of economic security for those who have lost their jobs in their late 50s and may never work again – or, as James K. Galbraith has proposed, we could make it less costly for people to take Social Security at age 62 (which a majority of recipients do anyway) and open up opportunities for younger workers.

There are also liberals who hold the position “never touch Social Security.” They, too, should recognize the record of adaptability and change throughout the history of the program. There are bad changes to the program (such as an abrupt increase in the eligibility age) and less bad ones. But one way or another, it's worth putting Social Security on a path that won't require a significant cut in benefits, or hike in payroll taxes, in 15 or 20 years. I'm not endorsing any specific plan here, but just pointing out that resisting any and all changes to Social Security is really a betrayal of the program's greatest strength.

There are programs that really are locked into a particular era and model of employment. Unemployment Insurance, for example, reflects some of the assumptions of the industrial era economy, such as a business cycle in which dips last about 26 weeks and workers return to their previous employer. But Social Security has a seamless versatility that has made it adaptable to all the massive shifts in the economy and our society since 1935. That, rather than any specific component of the program, is its greatest virtue and the reason that Social Security will endure. 

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Ignore the Deficit Hawks. Social Security is Easy to Fix.

Aug 14, 2012Jeff Madrick

On the 77th anniversary of Social Security, we're celebrating what has made the program so important and why it remains vital today. Jeff Madrick explains why Social Security's so-called fiscal crisis has been overblown and looks at the many simple solutions on the table. Read the rest of our coverage here.

On the 77th anniversary of Social Security, we're celebrating what has made the program so important and why it remains vital today. Jeff Madrick explains why Social Security's so-called fiscal crisis has been overblown and looks at the many simple solutions on the table. Read the rest of our coverage here.

Little is as distressing in the public discourse as the linking of the financial problems of Social Security and Medicare. It is a favorite ploy of the deficit hawks to claim we must reform our entitlement programs without distinguishing between the two. I am at a loss to explain this. It is clearly ideological -- small government no matter who gets hurt. But Social Security payouts will rise from roughly 5 percent of GDP to 6 percent at worst down the road, while Medicare will rise by much more.

Nevertheless, poorly educated pundits, willing to believe the self-proclaimed centrist view that we cannot tax our way to solvency, demand Social Security reforms from selfish baby boomers. Monique Morrisey of the Economic Policy Institute does good work on this. Moreover, there is even a detailed Senate report on the issues that requires only a little updating. Maybe journalists should read it before they write about the subject. Its title is rather self-explanatory: “Social Security Modernization: Options to Address Social Security Solvency and Benefit Adequacy from the Senate.” 

First, remember that Social Security provides nearly 60 percent of the elderly more than half of their income. Seventeen percent receive all their income from Social Security, mostly households headed by elderly women. Most remarkably, and it would be nice for young people to register this, the poverty rate measured by the federal government for the elderly was 35 percent in 1959. As Social Security became more generous, it was reduced to 10 percent, about where it stands today. This is one of the great social achievements of our time.

Now for that future financing gap. It's true that payroll taxes won’t cover all the benefits to be paid in 25 years or so, as the ratio of the elderly to workers rises and life expectancy grows. But a more important and lesser known cause of this future gap is inequality of income. Tax revenues are reduced because incomes have stagnated for so many. Due to an earnings cap above which taxes are not collected, now about $110,000 a year, combined with the rapid rise of incomes for high-end earners, some 17 percent of aggregate earnings are not covered by the payroll tax. In 1980, only 10 percent were not covered.

But the solvency gap, as we might call it, is not very large, amounting to only 2.67 percent of GDP. How can that be closed? Pretty darned easily. For example, the cap can be eliminated. This would close almost the entire gap if high-end earners do not receive higher benefits. It will still close four-fifths of the gap if they do.

Another way to close the gap would be to raise payroll taxes by 1.1 percentage points, from 6.3 percent to 7.6 percent. This would entirely close the solvency gap. Or the tax could be raised by a little more than 1 percentage point in 2020 and another percentage point in 2052, also eliminating the solvency gap.

A combination would also work. If the cap were raised to cover 90 percent of all workers, for example, it would close about 25 percent of the gap. Thus, a tax increase to close the rest would be smaller. Alternatively, the payroll cap on employees could be limited to 90 percent and eliminated altogether for employers. This would just about eliminate the gap.

There are many other options and permutations, but any claim that a pragmatic increase in taxes cannot close the gap is utterly wrong. 

Let’s also keep in mind that Social Security solvency is based on a 75-year forecast. Any increase in the rate of growth over what is expected will reduce the gap significantly. Now to really be pie in the sky, there is also the possibility of investing in the economy to enable it to grow faster—investing in infrastructure, education, and so on. More equality of income would also reduce the solvency gap. For those eager for major benefit cuts because we can’t be sure about growth, well, they can be quite modest if coupled with tax increases. But they are not necessary now!

Medicare is a different issue. In sum, the nation pays about twice as much for what it gets from health care than it should compared to other countries. This is the domestic problem of our time. I think Obamacare may start us down the road to control these costs, especially if we ultimately add a public option at something like Medicare rates. That’s where pundits and deficit hawks should focus their attention. Instead, they like picking on Social Security, our single greatest achievement. Why?

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the Director of the Roosevelt Institute’s Rediscovering Government initiative and author of Age of Greed.

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Romney's Failed Unemployment Strategy and the Bizarro Stimulus of Paul Ryan

Aug 13, 2012Mike Konczal

Mitt Romney aired an ad last summer titled "Bump in the Road." It attacked President Obama's record on mass unemployment by linking it to a comment he made about there being bumps in the road to economic recovery. A group of people stood on a road in a desert, holding signs explaining their years of unemployment, their student debts, and their struggling families (something not dissimilar to the We Are the 99% Tumblr that started later that year).

Mitt Romney aired an ad last summer titled "Bump in the Road." It attacked President Obama's record on mass unemployment by linking it to a comment he made about there being bumps in the road to economic recovery. A group of people stood on a road in a desert, holding signs explaining their years of unemployment, their student debts, and their struggling families (something not dissimilar to the We Are the 99% Tumblr that started later that year). They pointed to the real suffering that goes on beyond numerical aggregates like the unemployment rate.

I remember this ad, because I remember several liberals being worried about this type of Romney campaign. Why? Because the liberals in question basically agreed with it. President Obama was trying to make a Grand Bargain with unemployment above 9 percent. The weak recovery was accepted as a given by the administration instead of the problem that had to be tackled. There was a lot of debate over what could be done and how, but at that point unemployment was off the table. President Obama would pivot back to jobs that fall, but it would remain a quiet priority, especially after so much time had been wasted. And it was a worry that if Mitt Romney ran a campaign that was all about unemployment all the time, President Obama would lose. I thought this was correct at the time.

That has changed with Paul Ryan now announced as Romney's vice presidential running mate. This appears to signal that the Romney campaign will move away from the previous focus on unemployment towards arguing for the conservative transformation of the federal government and the social safety net. This move is being interpreted as a sign of weakness from the campaign, one where they are worried that their previous strategy was failing. But why was the unemployment message failing? The economy isn't much stronger, so it hasn't lost its potency. Mitt Romney's job creation record was being attacked, but that only gets you so far. I think a major reason why is because of an odd contradiction one can see from the recent "Romney Program for Economic Recovery, Growth, and Jobs" released by Romney's economics team. Romney has no actual interest in trying to bring unemployment down faster, which blunts the ability to really say anything about unemployment, but his economics team also wasn't signing off on the far-right's bizarro stimulus plans.

There's already been a lot written on how the paper distorts the research it cites. The paper claims to "speed up the recovery in the short run." How? "By changing course from the policies of the current administration and ending economic uncertainty." What are the bold policies to help those unemployed people President Obama ignored? Tax code reform, block-granting Medicaid, and repealing Dodd-Frank and Obamacare while making "cost-benefit analysis important features of regulation."

Which is to say that Romney wanted to focus on unemployment, but had no real serious plan on how to get unemployed people jobs. I can, quickly, come up with a set of conservative stimulus ideas on how to get the economy going again, but the wide range of these programs are missing from Romney's economics report. They aren't going to hire market monetarists to run the Federal Reserve. Mitt Romney just publicly said the Federal Reserve shouldn't go ahead with another round of quantitive easing [1]. There isn't the argument that the government should just not collect taxes for a year or two with borrowing costs so low, which will also make it that much harder to raise taxes to Clinton-era rates afterwards. There's nothing in the paper about housing, even though one of Romney's advisors is well known for his mass refinancing program to help boost demand. And there's no conditional lending to states to prevent layoffs on the condition that they dismantle public sector unions, or privatize certain government services, or whatever.

Ideas have consequences, and the fact that Romney has no actual ideas for how to get the unemployed jobs means that making unemployment a big issue is only going to have so much traction with the electorate. "The long-term unemployed should vote for me so I can go after financial regulations," or "Vote for me, because I'll just ignore mass unemployment outright rather than not do enough and then pivot away" aren't political strategies that capitalize on the big vunerability Obama has on economic weakness.

Given the number of policy entrepreneurs on the right, it's almost shocking how little effort I've seen to get creative with getting unemployment down. The policy for unemployment is just a set of conservative reforms conservatives would want to see anyway regardless of the economy. And the general message seems to be that unemployment is unfortunate, but the downside risks of trying to combat it are far too high. Better to just get through this period and focus on the long-term economy. The unemployed are, in fact, just bumps in the road.

But the Romney Program document is interesting because it avoids embracing something I'll call "bizarro stimulus." These are arguments that doing things traditionally thought of as the opposite of economic stimulus will be the real stimulus and help bring unemployment down. Romney's economics team doesn't seem to want to go in that direction, yet that is the direction of the House Republicans and of Paul Ryan.

Many economists believe that the Federal Reserve should lower rates, but that a "zero lower bound" holds conventional monetary policy in check. The debate is whether and how unconventional monetary policy can help. In bizarro stimulus, the problem is that the rate is at zero. If you were to raise that rate, you would get capital going again. Here's Paul Ryan from Summer 2010, arguing that "I think literally that if we raised the federal funds rate by a point, it would help push money into the economy, as right now, the safest play is to stay with the federal money and federal paper." This is usually thought of as incorrect by most economists, but that's why it is bizarro stimulus. Ryan has also promoted bills to drop the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, even though the problem is the Federal Reserve not taking its dual mandate seriously enough.

When the economy is weak and we are far away from full employment, we should run a larger deficit in order to boost demand. Austerity and the slashing of government spending will actually make the economy worse in these times. Unless you are in bizarro economics, under which austerity can expand the economy. David Brook wrote back in 2010, in an article called "Prune and Grow," that “Alberto Alesina of Harvard has surveyed the history of debt reduction. He’s found that, in many cases, large and decisive deficit reduction policies were followed by increases in growth, not recessions.” Though this research has many serious problems, it became part of the core of the new conservatives in the House, a group Paul Ryan is influential with. Republicans' economic policy in 2011 was all about expansionary austerity, with their JEC report making several references to the possibility of austerity being offset by confidence and certainty. Romney actually pointed out the absurdity of expansionary austerity back in May of this year, noting "I don’t want to have us go into a recession in order to balance the budget." Nobody could tell if Romney was going off message with that statement.

It's interesting that Romney's advisors don't touch either of these ideas, yet they are an important part of how the House Republicans approach the economy. Will the Ryan pick also signal that Romney will move much further to the right on economic issues? We've rarely ever had to ask if a presidential candidate agrees with the views of his vice-presidential running mate, rather than the other way around, but that is now a relevant question.

[1] Can you imagine the debate and coverage that would happen if President Obama encouraged Bernanke to move with QE3? Yet Mitt Romney calling out against QE3 doesn't get noticed, and certainly isn't thought of as "politicizing the Federal Reserve," even though it obviously is.

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. Follow or contact the Rortybomb blog:

  

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America's Future in an Enduring Recession

Aug 9, 2012Herbert J. Gans

Americans have been taught to hope for the best, but to avoid a bleak future, we need to push for policies that support job creation.

Americans have been taught to hope for the best, but to avoid a bleak future, we need to push for policies that support job creation.

America's national optimism is so pervasive that not much public thought has yet been given to the possibility that the Great Recession could endure for many years. Even if GDP, the Dow Jones, and other standard economic indicators suggest that the overall economy is healthy once more, labor markets may not recover. Thus, all employment-related indicators could remain low to the end of the decade and beyond, justifying a guess about the social and political effects of an enduring recession. (Guess must be underlined because many unexpected happenings can always wreck predictions.)

If the country faces a continuing labor market recession, short- and long-term unemployment are likely to rise. So will underemployment, such as involuntary part-time work and shorter work weeks for full-time workers. Discouraged workers will continue to drop out of the labor market, older ones will head for involuntary retirement, and some young people may not obtain a steady job during the entire period. The total number of labor market victims will rise well above the current official estimate of close to 15 percent of the labor force. And this estimate leaves out other victims of the recession -- people brought down by foreclosures, humongous debt, and lost pensions, as well as poor people driven into more severe poverty. 

If the numbers rise sufficiently, the social effects of the enduring recession, which are now still mostly hidden, will become apparent. High levels of depression and other emotional illnesses and related physical ones will multiply, as will family conflict and breakup, interpersonal and criminal violence, and other kinds of self and social destruction. Militant extremists threatening bodily destruction of immigrant and other vulnerable populations may increase in number as well. The medical community and the media are likely to be talking about post-traumatic economic stress disorder. America will be full of very unhappy people.

Of course, November 6, 2012 could bring a Democratic victory of sufficient proportions so that the advocates of serious government action to revive the economy could get their way. If the Democratic majority in the Senate is filibuster-proof and the president is prepared to be transformative, only the conservative House Republicans can effectively sabotage their agenda. If all went well, a new, large, and targeted stimulus, complemented by tax reforms and related policies, would enable the federal government to help create decent jobs and provide sufficient income support for the still-jobless victims of the recession. In the process, consumer demand would be stimulated and the consumer economy would be revived.

But in the event that government continues to be polarized and dysfunctional, politics could worsen economic victimization. In hard economic times, even the economically secure citizens tend to become less generous toward victims, worrying that government funds for the suffering would be taken out of their income and wealth. Some will fear that they will become economic victims too. The greater the shrinkage in public generosity, the greater also the readiness to demonize the economy's victims. The better off and even some not so well off are already describing the needy as moochers or takers and the jobless as too lazy to work. The recession's victims will be described as undeserving of help. Since the better off are more likely to be white and the economic victims disproportionally nonwhite, the latter will probably also experience more intense racial antagonism.

Since many Americans still see no difference between family and governmental budgets, and since recessionary times require familial belt-tightening, many people even outside the GOP base might support additional governmental belt-tightening as well. As a result, elected officials who are required to cut their budgets can further reduce the welfare state and welfare programs without suffering political consequences. And despite what people tell the pollsters about the desirability of higher taxes on the rich, the citizens that matter politically do not seem to contest the GOP argument that the wealthy need further tax reductions so that they can be "job creators."

So far, my long range guessing has emphasized the dark side of the future, but some corrective measures could take place, too. Three such developments seem most likely.

The first is new economic growth. All recessions and depressions, great or small, must end some day, and presumably so will the present one. They could end as a result of the pent up demand that is unfulfilled during deflationary times; for example, as people's necessities wear out and the population increases.

Demand may also return as a result of unpredictable new economic growth resulting from technological and other innovations. New products resulting from cyberspace breakthroughs, including robots as standard equipment at work and at home, are possible examples. So are new industries and businesses to help people survive 105 degree summers.

To be sure, American innovations that can be copied by lower wage economies are eventually copied, and even correlations that once existed between a high GDP and a healthy labor market can no longer be guaranteed. If global competition and an expensive dollar, high U.S. worker productivity, employer reductions in wages and working conditions, and other current impediments to job security and a "middle class" income remain in place, America's standard of living will not return to past levels.

The Great Depression was ended by World War II, which eventually brought about full employment at high wages. Although possible future wars are presumably on the Pentagon's drawing boards, they will not be labor-intensive and can no longer rescue a crippled labor market.

The second possibility is business community protest. Despite the business community's never-ending demand for reductions in taxes and "onerous" regulations, one could imagine that eventually at least the big corporations that earn their profits from consumer demand will begin to hurt. As a result, they might support the public pressure on government to stimulate that demand. They might even do so while continuing to ask for lower taxes and less regulation; giving up such a once profitable ideology will take time. However, some might be ready to trade, supporting stimuli, infrastructure projects, and anything else that provides purchasing power to the people they need to buy their goods and services.

If the business community's economic pain is sufficient, it might support a revival of the moderate Republican wing. Under such conditions, the rest of the party may agree to direct stimulation of the country's purchasing power. Conceivably, such a GOP might even initiate some of the economic policies they have long prevented Democrats from implementing. One must remember that nearly half a century ago, President Nixon was able to persuade his party to let him initiate relations with Communist China.

The third possibility is popular protest. Although the Left has traditionally believed that eventually the general public will demand economic relief, America's voters have only rarely pressed for such change. Right now, they seem to be angered more by social and related issues than economic ones. Or maybe they suspect that demonstrating for economic change is unlikely to be successful.

Moreover, mainstream America has become more diverse, more spread out, and harder to organize than in the past, and the radical unions that mobilized workers during the Great Depression no longer exist. New sociopolitical movements that fit the times are conceivable, but so far only some of the remaining Occupy groups are working toward economic goals, and none yet look as if they could turn into national movements. The victims of the current economy remain politically passive, if only because they must devote themselves to surviving economically and emotionally. In addition, they may feel (rightly) that they have nowhere to turn. Trust in government is at an all-time low, and other political organizations of the needed magnitude do not exist. Liberals and the left stand ready to offer help, but they have not shown that they can transcend the class and ideological differences that separate them from the economy's victims.

Historians still do not agree about the political effects of the popular protests that occurred during the Great Depression. The ghetto uprisings that took place in the 1960s, some simultaneously all across the country, did not produce immediate economic results. Since then, the de facto national incarceration policy has helped to keep the ghettos "quiet," and in recent years, the poor young men not (yet) in jail seem to have more often taken their discontents out on each other.

Perhaps effective political responses to the recession will emerge when more affluent sectors of the population are seriously hurt by the economy, notably the professional and managerial classes that have flourished economically in recent decades. They are politically skillful and know how to make themselves heard. Even Republicans might pick up their ears if the Tea Party and related groups, as well as the evangelicals who have previously concerned themselves only with "social" issues, indicate they now also need economic help. What if they hinted strongly that they will now have to vote their pocket books? Then it is even possible to imagine an election that unites many of the economically victimized and brings them together with liberals and liberally inclined independents, at least temporarily. If they can coalesce with others who stand to gain from a healthier labor market, they might be able to persuade the incumbent president to turn into a contemporary FDR or LBJ.

One would think that if a recessionary or deflationary economy endures, eventually something has to give. Although a dystopian welfare state in which the economy's many victims will live at bare subsistence level is conceivable, perhaps America will instead elect a government devoted above all to saving and creating jobs. However, such ideas are credible only in a country in which ordinary people exercise more political clout than entrepreneurs and speculators.

Herbert J Gans is the Robert S. Lynd Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Columbia University. His most recent book is Imagining America in 2033 (2008).

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