Nine Government Investments That Made Us an Industrial Economic Leader

Sep 8, 2011William Lazonick

flag-150The U.S. does have an investment problem, but the blame lies with Big Business, not Big Government.

flag-150The U.S. does have an investment problem, but the blame lies with Big Business, not Big Government.

Remember when the United States led the world in industrial technology? The peak of U.S. supremacy was back in the 1960s, when the "military-industrial complex" was in full force. Then in the mid-1970s the Japanese mounted a successful economic challenge to the United States in a range of industries, including steel, machine tools, memory chips, consumer electronics, and automobiles. Since then, among Asian nations, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and India have become major global competitors in industries that the United States used to dominate. In historical retrospect, U.S. industrial power has never been quite the same.

A prominent explanation for the competitive success of Japan and other Asian nations, first argued by the late Chalmers Johnson in the 1980s, was the crucial support for industrial investment provided by the "developmental state." In contrast, Johnson and others characterized U.S. government involvement in the economy as merely "regulatory." The United States was no longer number one, so the argument went, because its government would not invest sufficiently in the physical infrastructure and human capital that global competition now required.

The history of U.S. government support of industry, however, presents a very different picture. Far from eschewing a developmental role, it is plausible to argue that from the 19th century up to the present the United States has possessed the world's foremost developmental state.

Let's look at some highlights of that history:

  1. Railroads: Under the Pacific Railroad Acts of 1862 through 1866, the U.S. government handed railroad companies 103 million acres of public land that could be sold or used as loan collateral to finance the construction of transcontinental railroad lines. These land grants were equivalent to 5.34 percent of the size of the continental United States and greater than the size of California.
  2. Universities: Under the Morrill Land-Grant Act of 1862, the U.S. government gifted every state in the nation 30,000 acres of land as an endowment for an institution of higher education for the "agricultural and mechanical arts." Besides many eponymous state universities, Cornell, MIT, Purdue, and Rutgers all originated as land-grant colleges. The Morrill Act of 1890 provided each state with annual federal financial support for the colleges. By the early 20th century, the success of "mechanical arts" education within this public system compelled elite private universities such as Harvard and Yale to launch engineering courses and degrees.
  3. Agriculture: The Hatch Act of 1887 provided federal funding for agricultural experiment stations, most of them set up in proximity to land-grant colleges, to engage in state-of-the-art research that could increase the productivity of the nation's farms. The Smith-Lever Act of 1914 funded cooperative extension services, including the employment of thousands of "county agents," to diffuse the latest knowledge to farmers.
  4. Aircraft: In the 1920s, the U.S. government played the leading role in not only supporting aeronautics research but also promoting air mail services. Under the Contract Air Mail Act of 1925, the U.S. Postmaster General gave subsidized air mail contracts to a select number of commercial airline companies to encourage the airlines to demand safer, quieter, and larger planes from aircraft manufacturers so that passenger travel would increase. Five years later, when little progress in the development of passenger-friendly aircraft had been made, the Air Mail Act of 1930 changed the subsidy from the amount of mail carried on a plane to the size of the plane in which mail was carried, even if the plane carried only one letter. This generous government incentive scheme worked: By 1933, plane manufacturers Boeing and Douglas had each developed the modern all-metal, two-engine monoplane for the airlines, and air travel for people took off.
  5. Jet engines: The turbojet engine, invented in Britain in the mid-1930s by Royal Air Force officer Frank Whittle, was given to the U.S company General Electric (GE) in 1942 to develop for use in World War II. GE was not in the aviation business, but, as the leading producer of electric power equipment, had been doing gas-turbine research since 1903. The jet engine was not put into service during World War II, but after the war GE continued to develop it for the U.S. military and also shared the technology with Pratt & Whitney, the leading producer of commercial airplane engines. In 1974, GE entered the commercial jet engine business through a joint venture, CFM International, with SNECMA, a French state-owned company, to provide engines to midsized Airbus planes. GE is now the world's leading producer of commercial jet engines.
  6. College-educated labor force: While the land-grant college acts created a national system of higher education in the late 19th century, it was only in the aftermath of World War II that a large proportion of the population gained ready access to it. In 1944, Congress passed the Serviceman's Readjustment Act, popularly known as the G.I. Bill of Rights, which provided funding to U.S. veterans of World War II to obtain college educations, buy homes, and start businesses. By the time the initial program ended in 1956, almost 50 percent of the 16 million veterans of World War II had received education and training benefits under the G. I. Bill.
  7. Interstate highway system: Under the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, the government committed to pay for 90 percent of the cost of building 41,000 miles of interstate highways. President Eisenhower justified this expenditure on the grounds that the highways were needed to defend the United States in case of a military attack on U.S. soil. Whatever the rationale for this investment, the system has provided businesses and households with a fundamental physical infrastructure for civilian purposes.
  8. Computers and the Internet: A 1999 study, "Funding a Revolution: Government Support of for Computing Research," stated, "Federal funding not only financed development of most of the nation's early digital computers, but also has continued to enable breakthroughs in areas as wide ranging as computer time-sharing, the Internet, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality as the industry has matured." Among other things, the study details the now well-known role of the U.S. government in developing the ARPANET and the NSFNET for over three decades before it became available commercially as the Internet.
  9. Life sciences: The 2010 budget of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for life sciences research was $30.9 billion, almost double in real terms the budget of 1993 and triple in real terms the budget of 1985. From the founding of the first national institute in 1938 through 2010, NIH spending totaled $738 billion in 2010 dollars. The 2011 budget is $30.9 billion, and the request for 2012 is $32 billion. In addition, federal and state governments provide many subsidies to the medical field. For example, the Orphan Drug Act of 1983 has been critical to the development of the biopharmaceutical industry.

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One could go on to talk about the U.S. government's support for nanotechnology and renewable energy, among other programs. None of these government programs is a secret. Indeed, prominent corporate executives lobby for them (and you won't find the Tea Party attacking them). Yet there is a widespread belief that the U.S. government plays at most a regulatory role in the economy.

Recent research has exposed this myth. In "State of Innovation: The U.S. Government's Role in Technology Development," based on a project funded by the Ford Foundation, Fred Block and Matthew R. Keller have thrown the spotlight on the "invisible" developmental state. Also attacking the myth is a pamphlet, "The Entrepreneurial State," produced by Mariana Mazzucato, my colleague in projects funded by the European Commission and the Institute for New Economic Thinking. In a similar vein, the Breakthrough Institute has documented the history of U.S. government support for technology and innovation. Based on research on the microelectronics and biotech industries, I have argued that entrepreneurial ventures such as those found in Silicon Valley and many other U.S. high-tech districts could not exist without the U.S. developmental state.

So why has the role of the state in the development of the U.S. economy been hidden from view? No doubt, many leading free market ideologues are just ignorant of U.S. history. But it's more than that. Back in the 1950s and 1960s, often with the Cold War as a motivation, business interests both provided a fairer share of taxes to support developmental expenditures by the U.S. government and invested complementary corporate resources in physical equipment and human capital in the United States. Today, business interests remain happy to have the government spend this money, but they refuse to pay a fair share of the taxes to support it, while the business investments in productive capability that build on U.S. government spending on science and technology are increasingly being made overseas.

Meanwhile, the prime type of corporate investment within the United States over the past two decades has been the stock buyback. Trillions have been spent jacking up stock prices and, in the process, inflating executive pay. Yes, America has an investment problem. But the problem is big business, not big government.

William Lazonick is director of the UMass Center for Industrial Competitiveness and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network. His book, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States (Upjohn Institute 2009) was awarded the 2010 Schumpeter Prize.

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We Won't See Mass Prosperity Until We Rebuild Manufacturing

Sep 6, 2011Jon Rynn

workers-200No matter how large a jobs effort the government puts forward, revitalizing the manufacturing sector holds the key to long-term success.

workers-200No matter how large a jobs effort the government puts forward, revitalizing the manufacturing sector holds the key to long-term success.

While there are many similarities between our time and the Great Depression, there is a crucial difference: In the late 1930s, the United States produced over one-third of the world's manufactured goods, while in 2008, the American manufacturing share was down to 18 percent after being trashed by outsourcing and imports. By increasing demand for products through government action, FDR was able to set the country up for the "Great Prosperity" from the end of WWII until the 1970s. Now, even with a large second stimulus, we will not be able to experience a new era of prosperity until we rebuild the manufacturing sector.

Recently, a crop of articles has appeared that argue that "our economy will thrive only when we make what we invent," as Susan Hockstein, President of the Massachussetts Institute of Technology, recently concluded in a New York Times op-ed. Hockstein is challenging the idea that the United States can somehow be a world-class source of innovation without actually producing the new products. As she points out, in the past, "with design and fabrication side by side, insights from the factory floor flowed back to the drawing board." She echoes the research of Professors Pisano and Shih, from an article in the Harvard Business Review, in which they wrote, "The U.S. has lost or is in the process of losing the knowledge, skilled people and supplier infrastructure needed to manufacture many of the cutting-edge products it invented." When engineers could go down to the factory floor and look at the results of their design decisions, it was much easier to create yet more innovations. A major criticism of a corporation (such as GM) used to be that the design engineers would take their designs and "throw them over the wall" to the factory floor without worrying about how the designs fared in a factory setting. Now we throw the designs over the Pacific Ocean to China.

By contrast, as John Gertner writes in the New York Times Magazine, "As the former White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers put it, America's role is to feed a global economy that's increasingly based on knowledge and services rather than on making stuff." The benefits of separating production and innovation have been accepted as conventional wisdom for the past few decades, exemplified by Summers's statement.

But reintegrating innovation -- that is, science and engineering -- with production -- skilled production workers and operations managers -- is necessary. Back in the Great Depression, the Russians bought American factories and imported American engineers to create their industrial system. (Germany also helped, much to their later regret.) Now, after decades of closing down factories, throwing engineers and skilled production workers out of work, re-orienting those professions to military work and much of the educated class to finance, the U.S. is in the position of a developing country. We must try to catch up to Europe and Asia in any way that we can.

It won't be easy. On the one hand, Hockstein points out that "to make our economy grow, sell more goods to the world and replenish the work force, we need to restore manufacturing -- not the assembly-line jobs of the past, but the high-tech advanced manufacturing of the future." On the other hand, Gertner reports that advanced electric car battery makers are forced to buy Korean companies and import Korean engineers in order to get up to speed with cutting-edge technology. A battery maker tells him, "That's where the know-how was -- it was nonexistent in the U.S."

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While the increasing recognition of the importance of manufacturing is encouraging, we are still witnessing the very beginning of the effort to tackle solutions. Hockstein calls for more research dollars from the Federal government and support for more graduates and skilled workers in advanced manufacturing fields. While these are a good start, they won't solve the underlying problem. What we need is an industrial policy, a coordinated set of initiatives that the government pursues to make up for the many market failures we are currently experiencing. But as Gertner points out, "Even now, as unemployment ravages the country, so-called industrial policy remains politically toxic. Legislators will not debate it; most will not even speak its name."

Further to the left on the political spectrum, writers such as Leo Hindery recognize that "America's manufacturing sector must be a cornerstone of the nation's economy and thus one of the essential drivers of the recovery we are still searching for." He calls for a requirement that government purchase goods made in America, a tax credit for rebuilding existing American factories, eliminating the tax credit for off-shoring factories, and enacting a temporary trade tariff, among other policies. He also advocates for a national infrastructure bank and extending various programs to help with the creation of a green energy economy. In a similar vein, Dave Johnson of the Campaign For America's Future writes about a multi-pronged set of policies to revive manufacturing: deal with the trade imbalance with China by pushing it to stop making its currency artificially weak, have the government purchase American-made goods, implement a price on carbon in order to encourage a transition to a green economy, and create an industrial policy, for instance with tax incentives and training programs. He also argues that the president could embark on many of these policies now.

While all of these proposals would be a giant step forward politically, and in fact are probably beyond the limit of feasibility in this age of rabid Republican opposition, unfortunately they only begin to put us on the path to a world-class manufacturing system. The Koreans, Chinese, and Japanese directly subsidize companies, make it easy for scientists and engineers to get degrees, aid the import of technology, help companies work together, and engage in many other techniques for building manufacturing industries. According to the New York Times, a partial cause of China's rise as a solar energy producer and the simultaneous decline of the United States comes from "free or subsidized land from local governments, extensive tax breaks and other state assistance... China has focused on building the competitiveness of the country's manufacturers." Since labor is a small part of solar panel costs, cheap labor has not been a key to success in China.

We could combine the ideas of a second stimulus, building a green infrastructure, and rebuilding the manufacturing economy by creating environmentally sustainable transportation, energy, and urban national systems, as I have argued. There are myriad examples of countries pulling themselves up the ladder of manufacturing competency, including the United States. The reality is that in order to be wealthy in the long-run, an economy must be based on manufacturing. As hard as it will be to move the politics of this country toward that reality, in the end it will be easier than making pretend that manufacturing is not important.

Jon Rynn is the author of the book Manufacturing Green Prosperity: The power to rebuild the American middle class, available from Praeger Press. He holds a Ph.D. in political science and is a Visiting Scholar at the CUNY Institute for Urban Systems.

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All the Cars in China: How American Workers Can Gain from Chinese Growth

Aug 25, 2011William Lazonick

CB013130

CB013130

In the latest installment of his “Breaking Through the Jobless Recovery” series, economist William Lazonick explains how the US needs to take a lesson from China and align the interest of its multinational corporations with the interests of the country.

If you want to talk job creation, let's talk China. While the United States suffers through a prolonged jobless recovery, with another recession on the horizon, the Chinese economy has continued to boom. In the second quarter of 2011 the China's GDP growth rate slowed to 9.5% year-on-year, down from 9.7% in the previous quarter and 11.9% a year earlier.

Double-digit growth rates are nothing new for China. Since launching  game-changing economic reforms in 1978, China's GDP has grown at an average of almost 10 percent per year. One driver of that growth has been vast additions to China's productive capacity. For example, in 1979 China accounted for 4.6% of world crude steel production compared with 16.6% for the United States and 15.0% for Japan. China surpassed the United States in steel production in 1993 and Japan in 1996. In 2010 China's crude steel production was 6.6 times its level 15 years earlier, and represented 44.3% of the world total, compared with 7.7% for Japan and 5.7% for the United States.

China's growth has been also been sparked by technology transfer from the advanced economies. A prime objective of the 1978 economic reforms was to build the nation's science and technology infrastructure, which was especially in need of modernization after the tribulations of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). In addition to launching a massive educational effort to increase the supply of scientists and engineers, from 1985 the Chinese government invited multinational corporations to invest in joint ventures with Chinese state-owned enterprises under the policy of "trading markets for technology" (TMFT). As the phrase suggests, the lure for multinationals was the potential to gain access to burgeoning product markets in a rapidly growing nation with one-sixth of the world's population.

Quick to grasp the opportunity was the German automaker Volkswagen, which entered China in a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive International Company in 1985, followed by another one with First Automotive Works in 1987. By 2000 Volkswagen produced 52% of the passenger cars in China, most of them for government and taxi fleets. At the time, however, China's car production represented only 1.5% of world production, and China ranked a distant 13th among all national car industries.

The past decade has changed all that. In 2010 China produced 13.9 million cars, 23.8% of the world total, about 37,000 cars greater than the combined production of Japan (8.3 million) as number two and Germany (5.6 million) as number three. Volkswagen produced 1.7 million cars in China in 2010, 2.8 times its production a decade earlier but now representing only 2.9% of total Chinese production. In the Chinese market Volkswagen was now second to (guess who?) the much maligned General Motors.

Back in 2000 GM produced just 30,000 cars in China, one-tenth of Volkswagen's China output, and just one-third of one percent of GM's worldwide production. By 2006 GM had surpassed VW in China, and in 2008 produced just over one million cars there, 17% of its worldwide total. Then in 2009 came GM's bankruptcy, with its worldwide car production falling by 17%, even though its Chinese production rose by 69%! In 2010 GM boosted its worldwide car production up to 6.3 million, about a quarter of a million more than in 2008, before it went bankrupt. The 2010 total now included 2.2 million cars produced in China, 1.2 million more than in 2008 and 35% of GM's worldwide production.

Bottom line: Without China, GM would still be in bankruptcy, and maybe even out of business.

At the same time, GM, VW, and other multinational corporations face lots of indigenous competition in the Chinese car industry. In 2010 no indigenous Chinese companies were represented among the top 15 car producers in the world, although combined the top 15 companies (six Japanese, three German, two each American and French, and one each South Korean and Italian) produced 8.6 million cars in China. Of the next 25 largest car producers in the world, however, 17 were Chinese, with a total output of 5.9 million cars, or 42% of China's car production. (Note: There is some double-counting between foreign and indigenous producers because of joint ventures.)

These indigenous Chinese companies are the ones to watch. According to research by Kaidong Feng in his recent Sussex University Ph.D. dissertation on indigenous innovation in China, it is the indigenous Chinese car companies, and in particular nongovernmental enterprises such as Geely, Chery, and Brilliance, that have not been involved in joint ventures with multinational corporations, that are the most innovative in the industry, particularly in product innovation. Why?  In joint ventures, domestic companies give up strategic control to multinationals. While under TMFT, multinationals are supposed to transfer technology to the Chinese, but they tend to keep the latest developments to themselves. When, as has typically been the case in joint ventures, the Chinese partners are state owned enterprises, the strategic mandate from the government has been to expand production capacity (stressing process innovation) rather than generate higher quality products.

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In contrast, the nongovernmental enterprises can tap into the state-funded science and technology infrastructure for knowledge and people. They can access the national banking system for finance capital while maintaining their strategic autonomy from the government in the allocation of resources and returns. These indigenous companies, some of which succeed and many of which fail, seek to set themselves apart from the competition through innovation.

Dr. Feng has found similar results for the communications equipment industry, in which Huawei Technologies and ZTE are the most prominent examples, as well as, in collaboration with Qunhong Shen of Tsinghua University, for the electric power industry. A just completed study on the development of the Chinese semiconductor industry by UMass student Yin Li shows similar results. This recent research builds on and confirms the pioneering work of the late Qiwen Lu. In his book, China's Leap into the Information Age, published in 2000, Lu documented and analyzed indigenous innovation in the rise of China's first successful computer electronics companies during the 1980s and 1990s, including Legend (now Lenovo) and Founder (for a summary of Lu's findings, see my paper, "Indigenous Innovation and Economic Development"). Going forward, state-of-the-art work on the subject will be the focus of a workshop on "Chinese ways of innovation" in Los Angeles in October.

As both response and encouragement to these developments in China's technological capability, in 2006 the Chinese government made the promotion of indigenous innovation central to its Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (2006-2020). China's progress in indigenous innovation is apparent in its advanced technology product trade with the United States. In 2000, 5.5% of US advanced technology product imports came from China, while 17.8% came from Japan and 10.4% from Canada. A decade later China's share of US advanced technology imports had ballooned to 32.6%, compared with 6.6% from Japan and 3.6% from Canada. Among the ten advanced technology product categories, US imports from China are highly concentrated in information and communication technology (88%  in 2010). China alone accounted for 50% of all US information and communications technology imports. Over the past decade China has also become much more important in US advanced technology product exports, rising from a share of 2.4% in 2000 to 7.9% in 2010.

These advanced technology product imports and exports reflect the globalization of production since they include international trade in value-added components and work-in-progress along the global value chain. Through these production relationships, the economies of China and the United States are tightly intertwined, although with very different impacts on national economic performance. While China is leaping ahead, the United States is falling badly behind.

As William Greider warned in his best-selling book of 1998 on "the manic logic of global capitalism", we live in "One World, Ready or Not". In 2011 China's innovative trajectory is ascendant, while the United States faces tough times. And don't wait for China to implode: it won't for a long time. Instead Americans should be thinking about how the United States can respond to the new competitive challenge.  For a start, we need to invest the massive profits from globalization of US multinationals back in the United States.

That means not only policies for the repatriation of a substantial proportion of the foreign profits of US corporations, but also a coordinated and concerted national strategy for how these profits can be invested in innovation and job creation to get the United States back on track. The United States needs a national program of business-government cooperation to recreate what Harvard Business School professors Gary Pisano and Willy Shih have called the "industrial commons". Or to echo Ralph Gomory, former president of the Sloan Foundation and head scientist at IBM, America's response to the Chinese challenge requires an alignment of the interests of its companies with the interest of the country.

William Lazonick is director of the UMass Center for Industrial Competitiveness and president of The Academic-Industry Research Network. His book, Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States (Upjohn Institute 2009) was awarded the 2010 Schumpeter Prize.

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The English Riots: Just Meaningless Sound and Fury?

Aug 23, 2011Tom Ferguson

Zizek misses the point: Austerity politics is a social and economic disaster.

Zizek misses the point: Austerity politics is a social and economic disaster.

In a recent essay, Slovenian theorist and literary provocateur Slavoj Zizek attempts to unpack the political meaning of the riots in England. These broke out in response to the shooting of Mark Duggan by the Metropolitan Police and then spread rapidly from London to other cities. Zizek argues that the riots amounted to an exercise in sound and fury signifying nothing -- symptoms of an "ideological-political predicament" in which opposition can only be expressed through meaningless bursts of violence. This is the essence, he suggests, of global capitalism. He takes issue with both conservative and liberal responses, calling out the former for promoting an authoritarian crack down and the latter for trying to find "deeper meaning" in the social and economic conditions faced by the rioters.

The essay strikes me as similar to a lot of Zizek's other work: too clever by a half, with strained echoes of fashionable appeals across ideological divides reminiscent of, for example, Barack Obama. The difference is that Zizek is a theorist. Thus the discussion is framed in terms of High Theory: an abstract nod first to the left, then another equally ethereal gesture to the right, followed by the claim that both are plainly inadequate.

Alas, the thinner the ice, the faster Zizek skates. He is impatient to get a theory of resistance going, but the fact is that we are only three years into the Great Recession, so his efforts are a bit premature. If you look back at the Great Depression, you will see that distinctively new patterns of resistance usually took three to four years to form. Until then, there was discontent aplenty, but electorates in advanced countries mostly sullenly voted out the conventional politicians in office and replaced them with one or another of the existing moderate "out" parties. Occasionally, there were riots, and in peripheral countries, much worse. But only after the 1931 European financial crisis (sense a pattern?) dragged the whole world down another notch did real swamp creatures swarm out, as unbearable budget cuts and falling national incomes forced progressive social groups to organize more seriously. So I suspect it will be this time.

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In contrast to what Zizek proposes, I doubt that what we see now reveals the inner essence of global capitalism or anything else. It's probably not accidental that he finds political movements in Greece and Spain more constructive -- they are further into the crisis than the Brits, whose turn to the right is brand new. The British riots probably reflect the despair and anger of marginalized populations staggering under early shocks of austerity while local authorities themselves reel from cuts in their own budgets. The world has a lot more experience with macroeconomic austerity than most of the media or social science cares to talk about. The social disasters that sweeping budget cutbacks bring in their wake are plain to anyone who wants to see.

Zizek is right about one important fact: Repetition is a basic feature of social history. Unfortunately, it's not, as St. Augustine thought, the mother of learning. Its deadly spiral now mostly reflects the indifference of elites, the realities of political power, and wretched theories of free market fundamentalism. Zizek probably knows as well as anyone what Hegel's students reported he said in his famous lectures on Reason in History: "What experience and history teach is this: peoples and governments have never learned anything from history and acted according to what one might have learned from it." The euro crisis and the disastrous G20 Toronto Consensus in favor of austerity will churn world politics for a long time.

Thomas Ferguson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Boston and Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. The International Journal of Political Economy has just published a revised version of his paper with Robert Johnson on "A World Upside Down: Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession."

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Egypt's Future Lies in Empowering the Working Class

Aug 16, 2011Reese Neader

In the first part of a two-part series, Reese Neader reports back from a recent trip to Egypt training opposition leaders on how they must engage and assist all Egyptians if they hope to succeed.

In the first part of a two-part series, Reese Neader reports back from a recent trip to Egypt training opposition leaders on how they must engage and assist all Egyptians if they hope to succeed.

Stepping into Tahrir Square at night, the citizen guards who block the entrances showed me through. These men stand by to check for weapons being smuggled into the square. Despite the conflicting political groups that are vying for control of the country, and how much is at stake, the citizens of Egypt refuse to let the scene of their greatest victory be degraded by violence. Tahrir Square is a place of peace that honors the spirit of the revolution of the Egyptian people.

In mid-July I visited Egypt as the guest of a US State Department grant program and a representative of the Roosevelt Institute Campus Network. My mission was to train youth opposition leaders in grassroots policy campaigning, political communications, and civic engagement. My status as an independent member of U.S. civil society afforded me the ability to have open, one-on-one exchanges with Egyptians who might otherwise be distrustful of American-sourced information. Over the course of a week, I traveled through Cairo and Alexandria, giving trainings to groups that included members of Egyptian political parties, activist groups, and advocacy organizations.

The faces of the revolution are young, tech savvy activists who are college educated and have traveled abroad. But their "Facebook and Twitter Revolution" is a myth perpetuated by U.S. media. The reason that the Egyptian revolution (and the Arab Spring) has frozen is as much about a communication gap between protesters and the working class as much as it is the result of the interim government dragging its feet with reforms and prosecution of the former leadership. The poor Egyptian economy and its lack of social services are important drivers of revolution. But ultimately, what happened in Egypt, and what is happening across the Arab world, is about dignity. The people of Egypt want control over their own lives. To create a functioning democracy, the elites shaping the course of the new political system will have to engage and empower the working class.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been providing social services in the streets of Egypt for the past 60 years. They have handed out bread and provided education and medical care to desperate populations. This is how extremism in the developing world wins the game. This is how Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Taliban gain supporters. They provide social services in places where governments do not and therefore gain support where democratic governments should.

To defeat the Muslim Brotherhood, and to defeat extremist groups across the developing world, citizens of failing states will have to beat them at their own game. To build political support, parties need to engage in grassroots political campaigns much deeper than the lip service that we pay the term in the United States. Secular elites, the Facebook and Twitter generation that we celebrate in the media, will have to engage the constituencies they want to represent in the new government: the rural poor, the people in the slums, and middle class professionals who have protested for human rights. They will have to build local policy programs block by block, using existing resources from the community and including citizens and civil society in the decision-making process to provide social services. There are already two shining examples from the Egyptian Revolution: the street cleaning that was organized by protestors in Tahrir Square, and the neighborhood security groups that organized locally during the breakdown of the rule of law. Instead of giving someone food for a vote, these parties will have to teach someone how to grow food for a vote. That's how real democracy can be built in Egypt.

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The Campus Network's Think Impact model of engagement is a strong tool for communicating that message to young leaders. Communities that are dislocated from their government know what issues they face and how to solve them; what they don't have is the access to resources that can properly address those issues. Through Think Impact, grassroots policymakers connect these communities to the resources they need to address systemic challenges and blaze a trail towards shared prosperity. Campus Network students are using the Think Impact model to generate progressive change across the U.S., and it's a model that young leaders across the world, especially in emerging democracies, can also use to build responsive political platforms, craft democratic institutions, and cultivate civic engagement.

Social responsibility can only occur when people feel they have ownership over their own lives and are productive members of society. When they grow up with no belief that they will ever get a good job, get a good education, have the opportunity to afford a decent standard of living, or be able to provide for their families, they have no stake or sense of responsibility for what happens in their communities. They do not care and have no reason to. They do not trust their government or the institutions supported by that government to treat them with respect and dignity. To have real democracy, to give a sense of social responsibility to every citizen, Egypt's political parties will have to find a way to include every citizen's voice in their party platforms and policy campaigns.

We are lucky in the U.S. We can argue loudly about tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling, but when we wake up every morning we know our armed forces will not be staging a coup. The brave protesters in Egypt don't have the luxury of a stable democracy. They have their first elections coming up "soon" (still undetermined) and their constitution is going to be rewritten. But by whom? If the protesters cannot find a way to rally together and bring working class Egyptians into their fold, the future of Egypt will look a lot like the past. If the protesters succeed, there is unlimited potential to unlock the economic and social power of the Egyptian people.

The bravery of the protesters in Egypt and across the Arab world is stunning. It was a deeply humbling experience to walk through Tahrir Square and experience a place where revolution is happening. It will serve as an inspiration for the continued advancement of the mission of the Campus Network. Perhaps the young people of Egypt and America have much to learn from each other. And perhaps we can learn from the courage of the Egyptian people, by realizing that when our government refuses to act for us, it is our duty as citizens of a democracy to exercise our rights.

Reese Neader is the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network’s Policy Director.

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Real News Network: Rob Johnson and Tom Ferguson talk about Austerity

Aug 12, 2011

In back-to-back recent appearances on The Real News Roosevelt Senior Fellows Rob Johnson and Tom Ferguson both made compelling cases for government spending aimed at job creation, not austerity, during times of economic distress such as we currently experiencing.

In back-to-back recent appearances on The Real News Roosevelt Senior Fellows Rob Johnson and Tom Ferguson both made compelling cases for government spending aimed at job creation, not austerity, during times of economic distress such as we are currently experiencing.

In his appearance, Johnson paints a bleak picture of a world economy where we are so interconnected that one country failing can cause the world economy to spiral out of control. He speaks to the political failing of Obama to argue for more (and more effective) job-creating government spending.  He also speaks to the way that the very wealthy (think billionaires) can benefit from this crisis by buying everything at "half-off" while their competitors, who are not quite as liquid as them, begin to fail. Ultimately, he exhorts progressive politicians to stand their ground and advocate for government spending programs that create jobs instead of towing the austerity line. Johnson worries that if they don't we may fall into another deep recession.

Similarly, Ferguson argues that the problem is one of Keynesian economics.  He points out that when people are uncertain of the markets and are not investing, government becomes the most important source of spending that stimulates the market and aggregate demand.  But what do we see happening now? Ferguson asks. Austerity throughout the west. The government is one of the biggest spenders in each of these economies, and as each government pulls back its spending, each economy must contract as well.  So it makes perfect sense, Ferguson notes, that we would see economic recessions under these circumstances. The only workable response, Ferguson argues, is the Keynesian one -- namely to increase government spending on job creation which will increase aggregate demand.

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Johnson and Ferguson both make clear now is a time for government-sponsored job creation, not austerity. Their appearances are must-watch TV.

Rob Johnson:

Tom Ferguson:

Also, if you want to see them on the Real News you can press here for Tom Ferguson and here for Rob Johnson.

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A Modern-Day Marshall Plan: The Case for Global Debt Restructuring

Aug 11, 2011Sander Tordoir

money-globe-150Debts are simply commitments. It's time to renegotiate those deals to free up the world economy.

money-globe-150Debts are simply commitments. It's time to renegotiate those deals to free up the world economy.

In the wake of the recession, the global economic debate should be about jobs, poverty, and inequality. Nevertheless, as the (seemingly failed) brinksmanship in Europe and S&P's downgrade of the United States have made clear, debt is unmistakably a serious issue. What can be done about the high levels of debt carried by so many countries around the globe?

It sometimes helps to revisit history. In the wake of World War Two, before its golden age of economic growth, Europe was faced with a range of political and economic obstacles. Barry Eichengreen has written an insightful analysis of its predicament. Amid a host of other obstacles, Eichengreen explains that Europe was facing a problem with its balance of payments. To improve it, public deficits, soaring to unprecedented levels due to the war, had to be reduced. Yet in order to avoid choking off growth, an increase in private investment had to offset the decline in aggregate demand.

The Marshall Plan provided a way out of this dilemma by supporting European private investment while facilitating technology transfers from the United States to Europe. This essentially amounted to a foreign aid investment, the size of which has rarely been seen, specifically targeted at the rebuilding of capital goods in Europe such as production machinery. Part of that effort was executed by enticing American companies to share their technologies and management practices with European companies, most notably the introduction of assembly line production all over Europe. Consequently, European countries were able to greatly reduce their public deficits and monetary overhangs without decreasing aggregate demand or slowing growth.

In some senses, the European economy today has strong parallels with that post-World War Two scenario. While the EU in its entirety does not face a problem with balance of payments today, the regional imbalances are enormous, with the PI(I)GS countries at the bottom of the ladder. Of course, because they are all using the euro, PI(I)GS countries cannot devalue their currencies to offset their imbalances, decrease the value of their debt, and export their way out of their trouble. The only way to overcome their debt problems is to increase private investments in the hope of stimulating growth. But the large fiscal deficits throughout the continent, as well as the substantial overhang from the monetary expansion undertaken by the ECB in 2010 and beyond, are strongly limiting economic recovery. These large deficits are crowding out private investment.

In sum, this creates a similar dilemma to what Europe faced after World War Two. Europe has to grow itself out of its debt problems, yet it is the very public debt that is crowding out private investment and holding back growth.

The question is: where is Marshall in 2011? Unfortunately, Marshall -- the United States -- finds itself in a similar predicament as Europe. If there is a new Marshall it would be China, but China doesn't have the same ideological rationale that the U.S. had in 1945 to invest in the United States or Europe. Furthermore, despite the alleged financial power of China, it is nowhere near as economically preponderant as the United States was in the wake of World War Two. Based on 2010 estimates, China's economy comprises around 13.5% of global GDP compared to the staggering 46% of worldwide GDP that the United States economy represented in 1945. It would seem that there is no modern-day Marshall.

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But there may be an answer: all Western countries are Marshall. The only way to free up Western economies so that they can grow out of this crisis is to organize a Western, if not worldwide, round of debt cancellations. The only bright spot in this whole situation is that all Western countries are facing the same debt problems, though to varying degrees. We are in it together, whether we like it or not. With debts reaching dangerous levels in many Western countries, a global round of debt restructuring and debt cancellations would be by far the best way to reduce crippling and increasing interest payments, free private investment, and restore the confidence of financial markets.

Needless to say, sacrifices would have to be made. The burden of these actions would not be fairly distributed. Different countries are in debt to widely different degrees, with Germany seen as the best situated and Greece as the worst. Many financial institutions would have to accept large losses on their holdings of sovereign debt. And to make matters worse, these institutions are not by any means concentrated equally across all Western countries. In other words, the interests of stakeholders are dispersed and diverse.

The diplomatic effort required to negotiate a multinational round of debt reductions would therefore be unprecedented. It is a seemingly insurmountable challenge. However, despite the fact that the burden would be carried unequally, all would benefit from freeing up global financial markets from a large share of debt and inducing economic growth. More importantly, though: we do not have a choice. The debt of many Western countries, including some of the largest economies like Italy and even the United States, is approaching unsustainable levels. We need to take on the insurmountable challenge now while we still have the time to go through these complicated negotiations. If we begin this process when the global financial system is in an even more unstable state, we may not have the time to bring it to a fruitful end. We may no longer have the choice.

Furthermore, the challenge of organizing a round of debt restructuring can be facilitated by organizing a first round that includes only the United States and European countries. Yes, emerging Asian markets, notably China, own a fair portion of Western debt. However, people forget that another large part is owned by European countries and the United States itself, including their financial institutions. To illustrate that point, Britain already owns over half a trillion dollars in United States public debt. American banks, for example, own 269 billion euros in Italian debt. Overall, in terms of external assets held, the United States (32 trillion), Germany (4.7 trillion), the United Kingdom (4.7 trillion), France (3.8 trillion), and even Italy (3.5 trillion) still rank far higher than China's total external assets (3.4 trillion). While a large amount of those external assets are invested in stocks and other financial products at home, a substantial part of it is also invested in foreign bond markets, leaving ample room for negotiations on global debt reduction.

On the most fundamental level, debt is nothing more than a commitment from one party to another to pay it back at some point in the future. These commitments are never meant to be crippling. As difficult as it may seem, they are nothing but commitments in the end, and can therefore be renegotiated. It is time to initiate a global round of debt negotiations, before it is too late.

Sander Tordoir is a summer research intern from Amsterdam for the Roosevelt Institute. He is involved with the development of a mesoeconomic development foreign aid strategy for the Campus Network's Millenial Grand Strategy Project.

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Hamptons Institute Takes on the Unfolding Story in the Middle East

Aug 10, 2011

The Roosevelt Institute recently teamed up with Guild Hall to present the third installment of the Hamptons Institute, a symposium that brings political, economic, and cultural thought leaders together to let the intellectual sparks fly. Karen Greenberg lead a discussion about the various issues plaguing the Middle East with Jane Harman, CEO of the Woodrow Wilson Canter, Daniel Yerkin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Resource Association, and Hisham Melhem, Washington Bureau Chief for Al Arabiy.

The Roosevelt Institute recently teamed up with Guild Hall to present the third installment of the Hamptons Institute, a symposium that brings political, economic, and cultural thought leaders together to let the intellectual sparks fly. Karen Greenberg lead a discussion about the various issues plaguing the Middle East with Jane Harman, CEO of the Woodrow Wilson Canter, Daniel Yerkin, Chairman of Cambridge Energy Resource Association, and Hisham Melhem, Washington Bureau Chief for Al Arabiy.

While the U.S. has been preoccupied with our financial disaster, there have been a lot of changes taking place in the Middle East. The word on the street is no longer "terrorist" but rather "Arab Spring." While the Middle East is still caught up in almost any conversation about U.S. national security, it appears that there are a host of other issues that are relevant to our future security concerns as well as the region's prosperity.

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The panel acted as a primer for anyone who hasn't been closely following new trends in the region. The discussion ranged from Hisham Melhem's pessimistic commentary on the future of the Arab Spring movements, to Daniel Yerkin's stark description of the resource challenges facing the Middle East, to Jane Harman's explanation of the different ways in which the U.S. could be more strategic in our Middle East policy. Harmon pointed out that an internal "counter Jihad" could be influencing the hearts and minds of people in Middle Eastern countries against the radical terrorists that we often talk about in the U.S. They all agreed that the Middle East is an unfolding story with an uncertain future.

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"Europe is a Political Bubble": Rob Johnson Talks About Austerity Fallout on Real News Network

Aug 5, 2011

In an interview with the Real News Network on the European crisis, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson explains how austerity policies are crushing Europe and "deforming democracy".

Will the dysfunctional state of affairs lead to a total breakdown and the rise of ultra-nationalist forces? Will the banks be saved? Why does it matter to North America?

Watch the segment to find out:

In an interview with the Real News Network on the European crisis, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson explains how austerity policies are crushing Europe and "deforming democracy".

Will the dysfunctional state of affairs lead to a total breakdown and the rise of ultra-nationalist forces? Will the banks be saved? Why does it matter to North America?

Watch the segment to find out:

If you want to see it on The Real News Network press here.

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Candidate Obama Vs. President Obama On Trade

Aug 4, 2011Zaid Jilani

question-mark-150What happened to the candidate in sympathy with human rights advocates and labor unions?

question-mark-150What happened to the candidate in sympathy with human rights advocates and labor unions?

President Barack Obama recently stood before the nation and addressed the dismal jobs report that showed unemployment was now hovering around 9.2 percent. As a part of his address, he called on Congress to "advance trade agreements [with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia] that will help businesses sell more American-made goods and services to Asia and South America, supporting thousands of jobs here at home."

Astute observers will note that Obama said these agreements would support thousands of jobs in the U.S. -- not that it would create them -- which is the traditional political parlance for supporting a policy. One reason the Obama administration has used this rhetoric around the trade agreements is because there is very little data to show that these three agreements will actually create a net surplus of jobs in the United States. In fact, the Economic Policy Institute estimated in 2010 that the Korean and Colombian trade agreements will result in 214,000 jobs lost in the United States.

What's interesting about the Obama administration (joined nearly at the hip by conservative business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and congressional Republicans) taking these positions on trade is they represent a significant departure from what candidate Obama campaigned on.

While it's true that candidate Obama never endorsed a complete about-face on U.S. trade policy -- the only candidate in the Democratic primary who did so was Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who advocated for ending the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and returning to bilateral trade -- he did engage in serious critiques and indicated that he would oppose the legacy of neoliberal trade policies.

While campaigning in the key battleground state of Ohio, Obama repeatedly called for reforming NAFTA, claiming that it cost the country up to a million jobs. By the spring of 2009, Obama's trade representative Ron Kirk openly admitted that the administration will not seek to renegotiate any part of NAFTA.

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But Obama's about-face on NAFTA isn't the only trade flip-flop the president has had. While on the campaign trail in April of 2008, then-Senator Obama said he would oppose a new free trade agreement with Colombia "because the violence against unions [there] would make a mockery of the very labor protections that we have insisted be included in these kinds of agreements."

While the administration is now busy downplaying concerns of human rights and labor advocates about the situation in Colombia, it's important to note that the levels of violence in the country now are actually no different than where they were when Obama made that statement. According to data from the International Trade Union Confederation's (ITUC) Annual Survey of Violations of Trade Union Rights, Colombia in 2010 had 49 assassinations of labor officials -- more than the rest of the world combined. That's a major jump over 2007, when ITUC numbers show that there were only  37 assassinations, and 2008, when there were also 49 assassinations.

One has to wonder if Obama would not think that these continued high levels of violence would not make a "mockery" of any labor protections that would be included in an upcoming Colombia trade deal.

Candidate Obama certainly did not promise to upend U.S. trade policies in ways that many Americans sympathetic to the global labor and human rights movements would want -- which would involve a more direct repudiation of the NAFTA and WTO trade regime models. Yet he was a sharp critic of unfair trade agreements and expressed sympathy towards human rights concerns. Candidate Obama appears to have vanished and President Obama appears to have more sympathy with the views of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and congressional Republicans than human rights advocates and labor unions.

*Note: According to the latest news, the trade deals discussed in this piece may go up for a vote around September.

Zaid Jilani is a Reporter-Blogger for ThinkProgress and The Progress Report at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

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