Debt, Unemployment, and Income Inequality are Public Health Issues

Oct 26, 2011Bryce Covert

The economic problems facing the average American can affect much more than a bank account.

One loud message from Occupy Wall Street is an outcry against income inequality. The flipside of that issue, and another grievance of the movement, is sky-high levels of personal debt. When working Americans are taking home less during the recovery, and have seen their share of national income falling for three decades, they must turn to debt to plug the holes and cover the basics. And there are millions of Americans who aren't even lucky enough to have a job right now.

The economic problems facing the average American can affect much more than a bank account.

One loud message from Occupy Wall Street is an outcry against income inequality. The flipside of that issue, and another grievance of the movement, is sky-high levels of personal debt. When working Americans are taking home less during the recovery, and have seen their share of national income falling for three decades, they must turn to debt to plug the holes and cover the basics. And there are millions of Americans who aren't even lucky enough to have a job right now.

All of these grave economic concerns also are also issues of public health. Striklingly, it turns out that each of the protest's main causes -- income inequality, unemployment, and high levels of debt -- are all making us unhealthier.

Foreclosure is now shown to not just be a financial strain, but a mental and physical one. As Craig Pollack and Julia Lynch write in the New York Times, "A growing body of research shows that foreclosure itself harms the health of families and communities." The authors cite a paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research that found people who live in places with high rates of foreclosure -- New Jersey, Arizona, California, and Florida -- are at significantly more risk of being hospitalized by diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart failure. The authors found that in their own survey, 32 percent of people facing foreclosure in Philadelphia reported missing doctor's appointment and 48 percent had let prescriptions go unfilled, which is "significantly higher" than other people in the area.

It's not just a risk to physical health, but also greatly affects mental health. More than one-third of those in their survey had symptoms of major depression. The NBER study found a higher number of suicide attempts. And for every 100 foreclosures, that study found a 12 percent increase in anxiety-related hospitalizations and emergency room visits.

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It's pretty clear that foreclosures, as Mike Konczal says, are a lose-lose-lose situation financially. Neither the borrower, the lender, nor the community benefit -- they all suffer. It's also clear that they're a lose-lose situation in terms of health.

It's not just foreclosure that's affecting our health. Unemployment also takes its toll. As the Washington Post reported, "A 2009 survey by Mental Health America, a mental health advocacy group, concluded that the unemployed were four times more likely to report symptoms of mental illness than a working individual." Another study by Rutgers University's John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development found highly increased levels of stress for the jobless, and 11 percent sought professional help for depression in the past year. These findings are corroborated by larger research, which finds a strong correlation between high levels of unemployment and suicide, an a recent CDC study found that "the U.S. suicide rate has ticked up every time the economy has fallen into recession since the 1929 stock market crash."

And last but not least, the very issue of income inequality itself, a phenomenon starkly on the rise for the last three decades, is making us sick. More than income or absolute wealth, inequality that has the biggest impact on health, Time reports. This plays out across the globe:

At a basic level, a country's overall economic success does predict its people's well-being, but the healthiest and happiest countries in the world are not the richest. Rather, they are countries where wealth is shared widely and more equally... Indeed, in country-to-country comparisons, researchers find that the greater the difference between the richest and the poorest in a society, the worse off everyone in that society seems to be.

Japan and Scandinavia, which have more equal societies, also experience "greater life expectancy, lower infant mortality, reduced obesity, heart disease and mental illnesses, and lower rates of murder and addictions."

These financially related health problems will end up creating a vicious cycle, as many people do not have the money to treat them and may even turn to credit cards to pay for health care, landing themselves in more debt. Not to mention that health issues can even come in the way of finding a job for those who are unemployed. It's important to keep in mind that the economic problems facing so many Americans today have impacts far beyond their wallets.

Bryce Covert is Editor of New Deal 2.0.

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Why the 99 Percent is Crying Out

Oct 5, 2011Bryce Covert

Occupy Wall Street is right to be angry. Americans are falling farther and farther behind.

The biggest controversy over Occupy Wall Street is about what they stand for. Are they a bunch of dirty hippies with no agenda? Do they really think they can change the entire system? Why won't they just put out a concrete list of demands and policy prescriptions?

Occupy Wall Street is right to be angry. Americans are falling farther and farther behind.

The biggest controversy over Occupy Wall Street is about what they stand for. Are they a bunch of dirty hippies with no agenda? Do they really think they can change the entire system? Why won't they just put out a concrete list of demands and policy prescriptions?

While signs at the protests have many, many messages -- from BP to Iran to capital punishment -- the affiliated Tumblr, We Are the 99 Percent, exposes what's motivating people to get on the streets. With over 700 submissions at this point, Americans from all over have been writing down personal stories to explain their frustrations. While those protesting on Wall Street have grievances that are far ranging, those on the Tumblr are almost all sparked by a combination of a few common things: joblessness, debt, and low wages. They are the stories of those who can't make ends meet. These days, that covers a lot of us.

Here's a sampling just from the most recent page (my bold):

My mother (leader in her field of pathology, MA) is upside-down on her house. My father (multiple PhD's) lives in his car so that he can do what he loves for a living rather than be a slave to the system.

I am 45 years old. I was laid off twice in 18 months... I am "unemployable" because of layoffs. I have not worked since November 2008.

I am 27 years old with $100,000 in debt. I was laid off in 2009 and have been struggling ever since then. I have not made more than $10,000 a year since then.

My husband and I have $80k in student loan debt. I am in the process of being diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis, a hard enough thing in and of itself. I also have over $30,000 in medical debt because of that... We own cheap cars, live frugally, have a roommate to help, and try hard to keep up... I work when I'm not too sick, and he works full time.We have a combined annual income of less than $40k annually.

I have an MS from a top state university- & $135k in student loans (& growing). I've lost 2 jobs in 3 months.

Lost my job in 2006. Sold my home and moved in with my 87-year-old mother.... Cancer survivor. Need medical care. Can't afford health insurance... TOO YOUNG TO RETIRE. Watching my retirement funds and savings shrink.

As a newer, less established member of the faculty I was out of work when my college cut classes. Over a year later and I still can't find work... Because of deferments my $41,000 loan has become $62,000.

Adjusted for inflation, a smaller American reality than that of my dad -- a civil servant who dropped out of college... My son is learning to speak Mandarin.

I am 29 years old. I have a Master's degree. I am $120,000+ in student loan/medical debt. In the past 18 months I: was diagnosed with cancer, lost 2 jobs, worked 70 hours/wk and unable to keep up. I get more calls from creditors than I do friends... I have $4 in my bank account and no job.

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And I find this one perhaps the most emblematic of the average American's experience:

We live within our means, we own our cars, yet cannot accumulate much savings. We live responsibly, and consider ourselves "citizens" and not "consumers." We find it troubling that living simply can still accrue so much debt... We are one emergency away from financial ruin.

"Living simply can still accrue so much debt." That's been the American experience for years now. As Ezra Klein put it, the Tumblr is full of "small stories of people who played by the rules, did what they were told, and now have nothing to show for it."

For those who are lucky enough to work, the money we take home has been either stagnating or decreasing, and it's getting worse in the aftermath of the recession. As reported by Bloomberg:

Take-home pay, adjusted for prices, fell 0.3 percent in August, the third decrease in five months, and personal income dropped for the first time in two years, the Commerce Department reported last week. The declines followed news from the Census Bureau that median household income in 2010 fell to $49,445, the lowest in more than a decade, and the poverty rate jumped to 15.1 percent, a 17-year high.

That figure, $49,445, isn't going to cut it. A recent report showed that a household with two working parents and two young children needs to earn $67,920 to meet basic needs without relying on public support. It only drops to $57,756 for a single parent with two young kids. Not to mention that rent, food, and health costs are rising. On top of this, 14 million Americans don't even have jobs. When we don't bring in enough money to pay for the basics, the next place we have to turn is debt. Our total revolving debt comes to $796.1 billion, with the average household carrying $14,743 in credit card debt. Household debt is currently 90 percent of GDP, up from 70 ten years ago. It's no wonder, then, that despite making some headway in paying down our debt loads, consumers are still struggling to do so.

And student debt is a whole other story. The total is on track to reach $1 trillion this year, more than our combined credit card debt. Alongside this surge is a rise in delinquencies post-recession. This is partly fueled by the government, schools, and hard-pressed parents pulling back on support. It is also certainly fueled by the dismal job market and graduates' unemployment rate -- which will have ramifications for their earning capacity for years to come.

I'm not surprised that people are at their wit's end over personal finances. I'm not surprised that they're blaming the banks that make money from keeping us in debt. I'm just surprised it took this long for the anger to find its voice.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor of New Deal 2.0.

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It's Time to Stop Tinkering with the Economy

Sep 28, 2011Bo Cutter

The solutions being offered by both sides are too small and small-minded to meet the challenges we face.

The solutions being offered by both sides are too small and small-minded to meet the challenges we face.

I liked the president's jobs speech, but I was deeply disappointed with his budget speech on September 19. The president is missing an immense opportunity, and what may have been the last chance of his first term, to build a workable economic strategy. The undeniable truth is that nothing currently on the political agenda comes close to being sufficient to meet our problems.

When President Obama gave his jobs speech, I thought he would follow it with a budget speech that would change both the budget and the tax game, and then with an infrastructure speech that would provide a genuine bridge to long-term economic growth. There's a lot more to do than jobs, budgets, and infrastructure, but those three are not a bad start, and I thought there was an opening to build a real strategy -- one a president could both run on and govern by.

I may or may not have been right about the opening for a strategy; we will never know. But President Obama doesn't seem to be looking for that opening, and I was wrong about the path he was on. I think we are about to waste a year debating trivialities.

There is a fundamental mismatch today between the issues we are debating and the problems we are facing; between the issues the two parties are willing even to consider and what is developing as a grinding, long term economic crisis. We are still in the relatively early stages of what Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have called the "Great Contraction," an excruciatingly long period of slow growth and high unemployment that -- unless we act -- could easily become America's very own lost decade. We may be facing a European-led double dip recession. But wait, there's more: When this period -- this "Great Contraction" -- is over, we will not simply return to the world of the past. We are losing competitiveness, the middle class is hollowing out, we are not creating the right kinds of jobs, we are not preparing the next generation, and inequality continues to grow.

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In the face of these impending waves of real crises, both parties are displaying an instinct for the capillary, not the jugular. They are retreating to their core ideologies and refusing to budge from their different received wisdoms. Meanwhile a huge potential force is gathering in the center and looking around for a real set of solutions.

What is a "real set of solutions?" To characterize them in general, I agreed completely with what David Brooks wrote yesterday in the New York Times: "Try to reform whole institutions... there are 6 or 7 big institutions that are fundamentally diseased... The Simpson-Bowles report on the deficit was an opportunity to begin a wave of institutional reform." To say this another way, we should stop tinkering.

Here are more specific thoughts that take us beyond tinkering:

  1. Move now toward a combination of Simpson-Bowles/Rivlin-Domenici;
  2. Establish an infrastructure bank with a capitalization of $500 billion;
  3. Reform the income tax code; bring personal and corporate rates way down; create a super rate for super high personal earnings -- say above $5 million;
  4. Introduce a consumption tax and/or tax "bads" (fuel, green house gases);
  5. End the current employer tax exclusion for employee health care costs; put a ceiling on costs by converting it to a credit; move employees to the health exchanges which should be the central feature of President Obama's health insurance program;
  6. Require much higher capitalization -- say 15 percent -- of major banks;
  7. Create a jobs tax credit focused on small new businesses, which create the vast percentage of America's new jobs.

That's enough for starters. These are the kinds of big changes we need. They derive from ideas of both the left and the right. All of them land squarely on some "third rail" of American politics. None of them will actually be proposed by either of the current major parties. Together they show the need for a force or party of the radical center. But despite that word "radical," none of these are truly radical; we could do all of them. Together, they would together be a project for American renewal.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Bo Cutter is formerly a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm. Recently, he served as the leader of President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He has also served in senior roles in the White Houses of two Democratic presidents.

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Preventative Action: Redirecting Post-9/11 Zeal Toward Our Health Care Crisis

Sep 9, 2011Rajiv Narayan

health-care-money-150We could redirect fervor and resources to prevent deaths through the health care system.

health-care-money-150We could redirect fervor and resources to prevent deaths through the health care system.

September 11th marked a political coming-of-age for many young Americans. Where we could once afford to be blissful in our policy ignorance, the realities of terrorism required a far more adult understanding of the issues. It's in the aftermath that I first began to notice the zeal for a particular brand of post-terror policy. It seemed as though every American, and their corresponding representatives in Washington, D.C., would do whatever it took, spend whatever was needed, to prevent the next attack. The commonsense perception dictated eliminating the threat before it could grow into a crisis. I like to imagine applying that standard to the problems I see in health care.

But consider first the extent to which preventing terror dominated the first resulting policy changes. A network of rules and regulations that encroach on civil liberties seek to prevent explosives and weapons from making it onto airplanes. A nation was controversially invaded to prevent its leader from using weapons of mass destruction. A broader war was declared to level Al Qaeda in another country to avenge the attacks and prevent future terror plots. An undisclosed, but certainly astronomical, amount of money was afforded to a top secret government agency to carry out unknown tasks to prevent potential terror threats.

Let's check in on these change: Individuals have found ways to bring weapons and explosives anyway. It is still unclear what threats, precisely, were prevented by invading and then occupying Iraq. Al Qaeda is largely decimated, but the conditions prevailing in Afghanistan can foster a new generation of radicalized anti-American sentiment. And we continue to chase terror plots to this day.

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Now consider a similar zeal for preventative policy, this time applied to health care. A network of rules and regulations could seek to eliminate a growing epidemic of obesity already affecting a third of Americans. We could go into Africa instead of Afghanistan, this time with $3 billion a year in targeted aid (what the Pentagon spends in two days) to end malaria and save those at risk. A disclosed and comparably lesser sum of money could task the federal government with reorienting our health care system around preventative medicine to stop the 900,000 American deaths each year from preventable causes.

A decade later, the results of these initiatives would be a little different. Ending obesity could save $147 billion each year in its associated costs. Our invasion of good will in Africa could save more than a million lives a year, the results of which would be met with a markedly higher level of international admiration, respect, and cooperation. Of course, some will still regrettably fall victim to preventable health problems. But we would know for certain where our dollars are going -- to our health.

There are many legacies and takeaways from 9/11. What I've learned is the power and reach of passionately driven policy. I've also learned that It should not take an attack, or any catastrophe, to ignite zealous action where it is needed.

Rajiv Narayan is a Senior Health Policy Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute | Campus Network and a student at the University of California, Davis.

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Obama's Speech as a Thermometer for Our Sick Democracy

Sep 7, 2011Robert Johnson

Can our society reward politicians for doing the right thing to stop a crisis?

Can our society reward politicians for doing the right thing to stop a crisis?

President Obama's speech on Thursday comes at a very difficult time. He pivoted toward deficit reduction in 2010 and alienated his base with validating "fist bumps" for Eric Cantor and golf outings with John Boehner while the latter pair were doing their debt ceiling game of chicken. Now he is either 1) expected to restore his base's enthusiasm with a vigorous vision of economic recovery or 2) pander to the Chamber of Commerce with supply side gimmicks that will have little impact on employment but create mini windfalls for donors. Romantics and cynics are equally inclined to project onto the event.

As observers, I sense we would be better to watch this speech and ask the question, "What can we infer about the structural deformations of our democracy when a smart man like Obama is saying [whatever he says] when heading toward an election campaign?"

We are in effect taking the temperature on the sickness of our democracy. We have two currencies of power in America: votes and dollars. The episode of TARP, a month before the 2008 presidential election, gave us evidence that dollars are the more powerful currency even at election time. We will learn where Obama thinks the balance lies from this speech.

When demand is stagnant and 16 percent of the population does not have full-time work, we are in an obvious and profound crisis. The vigor with which both parties embrace deficit reduction contrasts violently with the helpless timidity with which they address the challenge of jobs.

The fact is, we do not have a society that is stable and functional when our politics is insensitive to a crisis of this magnitude. As Jared Bernstein said last week on his blog:

...Have we, as a nation, lost the ability to self-correct?

Any system, whether it's biological, political, or economic, must be able to diagnose and fix its problems if it is to survive. I don't mean to be gloomy or dramatic, but I'm wondering if our political/economic system is up to that task.

Are we up to the challenge as a society? The question is not whether Obama is up to the task but whether our society, as it is structured in a post-Citizens United world, is capable of responding to the needs of large segments of our population. Can Obama pursue healthy policies and believe he can be re-elected for doing so? If not, we have real work to do in reforming our politics. I suspect that it is the case or we would already see the White House and Congress on a constructive path toward demanding stimulus and employment relief.

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So what do I want to hear from Obama?

1. Corporate profits are at their highest level since the Korean War. Corporations need no more incentives to hire. Just more confidence in demand growth.

2. All this long-term deficit reduction we are planning to do is to buy space for a profound short-term stimulus over the next three years or so, until the unemployment rate is below six percent.

3. Stimulus should be focused on projects that will have lasting productivity benefits for the nation for years to come. Education investment, science spending, and infrastructure modernization all help.

4. We have to look seriously at how we subsidize foreign direct investment and change the tax code to support domestic investment. Subsidies for outsourcing and offshoring have to be terminated.

5. Single payer health insurance and negotiated drug prices are not only the essence of good budget policy in the long term, they are good policies for jobs and competitiveness because no other society has such ridiculously high prices, and employer-based health costs deter hiring.

6. Public financing of elections, and requiring our networks to donate public service time for elections, would be the best way to reduce pork and realign our incentives and would be great for budget policy and social balance in the long term.

If several of those six themes are addressed, I will be encouraged. If I see Obama make a stand and work diligently to make them into policy and openly take issue with officials in either party for opposing them, I will be inspired. It has been a long time since I have been inspired by the actions of the President of the United States.

Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Is Work-Life Balance An Economic Necessity?

Sep 2, 2011Joan Williams

women-and-moneyWhen given an ultimatum between children and career, many women go with the latter.

In the debate over work-life balance, there's one argument we can't seem to move past: Women have made a choice to have kids. Now they have to live with their decision and all of its consequences.

women-and-moneyWhen given an ultimatum between children and career, many women go with the latter.

In the debate over work-life balance, there's one argument we can't seem to move past: Women have made a choice to have kids. Now they have to live with their decision and all of its consequences.

But this argument rests on an underlying assumption that, when challenged, just doesn't hold up. If faced with a stark choice between work and family, the Jack Welches of the world seem to think women are going to choose family, while men are going to choose work. Otherwise the idea of a workforce that doesn't need time off for childbearing doesn't make sense. Kids need to come from somewhere. It follows, therefore, that the expectation is that women will "opt out" to raise families rather than pursue a career. (We're not even going to talk about the opt-out debate in this post, as Joan's been over that already.)

But what happens if women don't choose family? What happens if they choose career? The cover story in this week's Economist illustrates what happens when women are given a stark choice between having children and a having a successful career. It turns out -- surprise! -- that a lot of them don't choose children.

The article, titled "The Flight from Marriage," documents a trend among Asian women who marry and have children later in life -- or not at all. The article indicates that non-marriage rates for women in their mid-thirties are pushing 20 percent in the wealthiest countries in Asia, including Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. And unsurprisingly, the non-marriage rate rises with education level. In Thailand, 13 percent of women with a high school education are still single by age 40, compared with 20 percent of university graduates.

The decline in marriage rates has also led to a dramatic dip in the fertility rate, to as low as 1.1 in Hong Kong -- fully half of the replacement rate. (Unlike in, say, Scandinavia, very few Asian births take place out of wedlock.) The overall fertility rate in East Asia has fallen from 5.3 in 1960 to 1.6 today. That's obviously not sustainable, and many of the countries affected are scrambling to offer incentives to persuade women to have children. Among the benefits being offered? Better work-life balance, including subsidized childcare and parental leave for both mothers and fathers. As the Wall Street Journal noted a few months ago, affordable child care has a significant effect on a country's fertility.

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See that, Mr. Welch? That's work-life balance -- as an economic necessity. If it comes down to it, career women in the United States could always pull a Lysistrata and stop having babies until the men come around. But come on. We shouldn't need to get to that point.

Now, the reasons for the low marriage and birthrates in Asia are manifold, as the article describes, and include not only poor work-family polices but also inflexible divorce laws and rigid adherence to traditional social roles. (According to the article, the average Japanese woman does 30 hours of housework to a man's three -- talk about Chore Wars!) Because the tradition is for Asian women to "marry up," it's more difficult for educated and successful women to find a husband whose status matches or exceeds her own.

But the relationship between work-life policy and birthrate holds elsewhere as well. Take a look at Europe. The countries with the worst work-family policies are also, by and large, the countries with the lowest birthrates. Germany, for example, has notoriously bad work-life policies -- and a birthrate around 1.41 children per woman. Those countries with the highest birthrates, including Norway, Sweden, and France, tend to provide parents with the most support.

Business in a capitalist society has one goal and one goal only: to make money. This is often given as a justification for denying the value of policies that help employees achieve (or even attempt) work-life balance. But fertility trends show that this attitude is hugely shortsighted. There's no question that a career is now an option for most women. And the trends show that, when given an all-or-nothing choice between career and family, many women will choose career.

An aging population is a huge financial burden. It makes no sense to disincentivize reproduction. We simply can't afford to.

Joan Williams is the author of Reshaping the Work-Family Debate and Unbending Gender. She and Rachel Dempsey are co-writing an upcoming book about gender bias against professional women.

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Impact of Job Numbers Goes Far Beyond the Jobless

Jul 12, 2011Jeff Madrick

 

The high rate of joblessness suggests a deep malaise in America that begs for strong leadership.

A New York Times article on Sunday by the fine journalist Catherine Rampell suggested that a reason the jobs crisis in America (my phrase) is not getting sufficient attention is that the unemployment rate, even if a very high 9.2 percent, still means that nearly 91 percent are employed.

 

The high rate of joblessness suggests a deep malaise in America that begs for strong leadership.

A New York Times article on Sunday by the fine journalist Catherine Rampell suggested that a reason the jobs crisis in America (my phrase) is not getting sufficient attention is that the unemployment rate, even if a very high 9.2 percent, still means that nearly 91 percent are employed.

But we need to take a moment to clarify what high unemployment really means, and how broad its implications are. It is an indicator of overall economic weakness, not merely a number about those without jobs. And as such, it suggests that much is seriously wrong. It does not mean that 14 million are hurting people and the other 125 million are not.

First of all, we of course know that millions are looking for jobs and have given up or have taken part-time jobs when they want full-time jobs. That adds another 7 or 8 percent to the unemployed or underemployed. We are now are getting to the point where one out of six workers or so is having employment disappointments. We also know many have been unemployed for a very long time -- a record number, in fact.

Second, these people have relatives and friends who increasingly realize they may also get the axe. Their families, not only themselves, suffer.

Third, when you lose a job you now usually lose your health coverage -- or have to pay up big time to retain it. That adds to the misery.

In fact, far more people than 9.2 percent are upset by the high unemployment rate. About a quarter say in surveys it is our number one problem.

But high unemployment also implies little or no wage growth for most employees. There are two theories about this. One is the classical theory that when labor markets are loose, there is more supply and the price will not rise readily -- that is, the wage. The other is a little more Marxian in orientation. When people are losing their jobs, they get scared -- and they don't ask for a raise, they work more hours if asked, and on.

Since mid-2009, when the recovery technically began, there has been almost no increase in wages and salaries. But profits have soared by hundreds of billions of dollars.

That's almost never been the case before. Indeed, the relationship between job creation and GDP growth seems to have changed some time ago. Many people, including Nobel laureate Michael Spence, hardly known as a progressive economist, worry that something is deeply wrong -- and a lot of it may be about globalization.

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But when you consider that salaries and wages have risen slowly, stagnated, or fallen for almost all workers except those at the top for forty years, the American economic condition gets pretty frightening.

I think the unemployment rate suggests there is growing malaise in the nation. More and more people are pessimistic. Are Americans giving up on the future?

And yet both political parties talk far more about budget deficits than jobs. Obama has fallen into one of the great political traps of all time. On average, the media follow meekly behind. Yet Americans have long fallen for the deficit scare, back in the 1930s and even before that. That is an issue worthy of more discussion.

I wrote a few weeks ago on New Deal 2.0 that Obama should sound the jobs alarm. Leadership matters in America. That is the problem. Right now, we don't have it. Leaders have to tell Americans the economy is weak and the deficit is necessary right now.

But in sum, a high unemployment rate does not merely mean that 14 million Americans, and they alone, are suffering. It suggests far broader pain and suffering. And disappointment may turn to anger before we know it. The Tea Party is the first manifestation of this. What's next?

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of Age of Greed.

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What's Wrong with the Obama Administration's Cuts to Medicaid

Jul 6, 2011Richard Kirsch

President Obama's proposed Medicaid cuts won't address the source of rising costs, but they would be a major step backward for public health care.

President Obama's proposed Medicaid cuts won't address the source of rising costs, but they would be a major step backward for public health care.

While the public debate about the Republican budget focused on the sharp reactions against Paul Ryan’s Medicare privatization scheme, the other big “M” in health care, Medicaid, hasn’t received the attention it deserves. As a result, the Obama administration has proposed cuts in Medicaid. These will undermine the achievements of its own historic health care law and harm access to health care for tens of millions of women, children and seniors.

Unlike Medicare, our national health insurance program for seniors and the disabled, Medicaid comprises 51 different state programs (including Washington DC) operating under a set of federal rules, financed by both the federal and state governments. As a result, it’s much harder for the feds to control Medicaid costs through policy changes. The Ryan/Republican budget doesn’t even try; it simply limits the amount that the federal government will spend on Medicaid and shifts the rest of the costs to the states, while weakening the rules so that states can dump people out of the program.

Unfortunately, most of the proposals that have been made by President Obama in the debt-ceiling negotiations are a kinder and gentler version of the same wrong-headed policy of shifting costs to states, and through them to American families, rather than dealing with the underlying reasons that Medicaid costs are rising.

It’s true that Medicaid costs are increasing, but that’s not because Medicaid has done a poor job of controlling health care costs, at least compared with the rest of the nation’s health care system. For example, from 2000 to 2009 private health insurance companies spending per person increased by 7.7% each year while Medicaid spending on acute care health services –- doctor, hospital, prescriptions, tests, mental health – increased by 5.6% a year. Medicaid did an even better job controlling spending on long term care, which went up an average of just 3% a year per beneficiary, the same rate at which the economy grew and lower that the overall rate of medical inflation (4.1%).

To really see where Medicaid spends it money, you only need to look at the 5% of Medicaid beneficiaries who are responsible for more than 50% of the costs. These are people with very serious, chronic health conditions and serious disabilities. President Obama knows this –- in fact, he raised the issue at the National Governor’s Association in February.

The other major factor in Medicaid spending is increased enrollment –- particularly when the economy tanks. For example, enrollment of families was flat from 2004-2007 but spiked sharply once the recession began. Enrollment jumped by three million from June 2008 to June 2009 alone, the biggest increase since the early day of the program.

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Rather than dealing with the root causes of high Medicaid spending, the Obama administration proposes to cut $100 billion from Medicaid over the next decade, mostly by changing the way it pays states for the program. The biggest change would be to reimburse states at the same rate for all their Medicaid patients, unlike now, where states get a different rate for different populations, such as children or seniors. The new so-called “blended rate” would be set at a lower amount than current health spending. Like the Ryan plan, the proposal is simply a cut to states, albeit a much smaller one than Ryan proposed and without the loosening of rules on who and what to cover included in the Republican budget. States would still cut back on who and what it covers, if only to the extent allowed within the current rules. States would also cut payments to providers, which in many cases – particularly physicians, dentists and hospitals in some states – would make it harder for patients to get needed medical care.

The “blended rate” proposal also strikes a blow at the Affordable Care Act, which is counting on Medicaid to provide care to more than half of the 33 million uninsured who will be covered under the new law. Under the Affordable Care Act, the federal government will reimburse states 100% of the cost of these new enrollees for the first three years and gradually reduce that to 90%. Compare that to the average 57% now that the federal government pays as its share of Medicaid. The blended rate would result in states having to pay a lot more for people who become eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. As a result, states will throw up more barriers to enroll these working families and will scream more loudly about how the ACA is hurting their budgets. That later charge has almost no basis in fact now, but will become true under the blended rate proposal.

A second Obama administration proposal would close off one source that states now use to finance Medicaid, taxes on health care providers. Since states would be reluctant to replace these taxes with other taxes, they would also cut their spending on Medicaid, lowering federal spending.

In fact, only 10% to 15% of the cuts in Medicaid spending in the Obama proposal would come from rational savings in the system – increased efficiencies in providing medical equipment and prescription drugs – as opposed to simply giving states less money and making it harder for them to raise money for Medicaid.

The Affordable Care Act was a huge step toward a more rational health system, but the Obama proposals for Medicaid in the budget take us backward. Instead, the President should accelerate reforms that focus on the handful of high cost patients that drive most of the costs, by requiring states to implement care coordination programs which provide systems and incentives for health care providers to improve the care of the chronically.

Early this June, Senator Jay Rockefeller announced that 41 Democrats had pledged to “stand united against any efforts to slash Medicaid." Their action was aimed at the debt-ceiling and budget talks. Unfortunately, their resolve will be tested soon, in the Medicaid proposal made by their Democratic President.

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, whose book on the campaign to win reform will be published in 2012. He was National Campaign Manager of Health Care for America Now during the legislative battle to pass reform.

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Lenny Mendonca: "National Emergency" to Bring Innovation and Growth to Public Sector

May 26, 2011

At a recent breakfast event put on by the Roosevelt Institute's Next American Economy project, Senior Fellow Bo Cutter invited Lenny Mendonca, Director of Firm Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, to discuss what he calls the US' "dual-speed economy." One the one hand are globally traded sectors "that are subject to competition... are innovating, are productive," he says. On the other hand is the public sector, which is "creating a drag on the economy that is the equivalent of... an annual de-stimulus program," he says. The solution? Bring innovation and productivity growth the public sector.

At a recent breakfast event put on by the Roosevelt Institute's Next American Economy project, Senior Fellow Bo Cutter invited Lenny Mendonca, Director of Firm Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, to discuss what he calls the US' "dual-speed economy." One the one hand are globally traded sectors "that are subject to competition... are innovating, are productive," he says. On the other hand is the public sector, which is "creating a drag on the economy that is the equivalent of... an annual de-stimulus program," he says. The solution? Bring innovation and productivity growth the public sector.

In order to do so, we have to "create a kind of pressure that ensures there is productivity and innovation in those sectors," he says, by bringing "transparency around performance" and getting citizens to apply "pressure on elected officials to ensure that government is performing." While the public may not always get every detail of the federal budget right, they are correct in thinking that much of government isn't performing as well as other parts of the economy. "This is a national emergency to ensure that these portions of the economy work," he says.

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Watch the full interview here:

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Why Policymakers Should Ignore the Debt Ceiling

May 23, 2011Marshall Auerback

Beyond being self-imposed, the debt ceiling may not even be constitutional. Why hamstring spending because of it?

Beyond being self-imposed, the debt ceiling may not even be constitutional. Why hamstring spending because of it?

Pat Toomey has called the Democrats' bluff by indicating that a failure to extend the debt ceiling does not automatically mean a default. He is making the point that because debt payments are an executive priority, and tax receipts are more than sufficient for interest payments, the government can continue to make them to bondholders. It will simply mean shutting down other parts of the government to offset those payments. This is in fact the dream of the Tea Party supporters and other fiscal hawks, who have long fantasized about ways to substantially reduce the size of government and roll back programs dating from the time of the New Deal.

The reality is that Senator Toomey is probably correct in his assessment that failure to raise the debt ceiling would not be tantamount to default. In fact, the debt ceiling is merely a foolish, self-imposed limit that severely constrains the efficacy of fiscal policy. What's more, there are arguments that it may even be unconstitutional. The best course is to simply ignore it or have the President challenge its constitutionality in the Supreme Court. But if Democrats continue to endorse "fiscal austerity lite" while subscribing to the notion that the US must "get serious" about reducing the government's deficit, they'll only make it easier for Republicans to get spending cut concessions and ultimately lose the argument.

Budget deficits per se have no ideological implications. They are accounting statements, plain and simple. The size of these deficits are non-discretionary in the sense that they are largely beyond the control of the government. Which is to say, the size of deficits is largely a function of private spending and saving decisions, not government spending, precisely the opposite way that most people view the process. To put it another way, the more the private sector spends, the lower a budget deficit the government will have (typically). So when budget deficits rise significantly -- as they have in recent years -- we know that this is because private spending is weak and output growth is contracting or weak. This is precisely when more government spending is needed, not the time for cutbacks.

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In the event that the debt ceiling isn't raised, the government might, as Senator Toomey suggests, simply prioritize payments to bondholders and begin to reduce payments to seniors, Medicare recipients, etc. It would constitute another erosion of our democracy, in effect using a silly self-imposed constraint to do an run-around the budget process. Having failed to make the case for shrinking Medicare, Social Security and a host of other government programs, the fiscal austerians and radical conservatives (who are ideologically against any kind of government initiative) are now using the debt ceiling to achieve the same goal. Given the traction Senator Toomey's arguments are now gaining within the GOP and mainstream economics, it is clear what is going to happen: the debate will once again shift to how much government spending should be cut back, which will almost certainly create the very double dip recession conditions that Secretary Geithner is now warning about.

The irony is that the debt ceiling itself might be unconstitutional. Consider the analysis set forth by former Reagan official Bruce Bartlett, who has argued for some time that the statutory debt limit raises constitutional issues. If this sort of analysis gets broader traction, we could be in for some very interesting times:

The president would be justified in taking extreme actions to protect against a debt default. In the event that congressional irresponsibility makes default impossible to avoid, he should order the secretary of the Treasury to simply disregard the debt limit and sell whatever securities are necessary to raise cash to pay the nation's debts. They are protected by the full faith and credit of the United States and preventing default is no less justified than using American military power to protect against an armed invasion without a congressional declaration of war.

Furthermore, it's worth remembering that the debt limit is statutory law, which is trumped by the Constitution which has a little known provision that relates to this issue. Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says, "The validity of the public debt of the United States...shall not be questioned." This could easily justify the sort of extraordinary presidential action to avoid default that I am suggesting.

In support of his constitutional arguments, Bartlett cites Garrett Epps, a law professor at the University of Baltimore School of Law, who agrees that Section 4 precludes the debt ceiling. "'If a statute requires something that requires violating the Constitution,' Epps says, 'the Constitution always trumps a statute.'"

If Bartlett is correct, this should be viewed as a huge opportunity for the Democrats, not a source of hand-wringing. Indeed, progressives everywhere should celebrate it as the death of one more stupid constraint on our ability to help groups in society who benefit from government programs, such as universal health care, free education, and a job guarantee. Democrats who oppose the Republicans resisting an elevation of the debt ceiling should in particular avoid diminishing the force of their arguments by embracing a form of deferred fiscal chastity in which they fight over how much to cut in exchange for securing GOP acquiescence to raising it. By adopting this strategy, the Democrats inadvertently make common cause of the anti-tax tea partiers and threaten the very programs they claim to champion, such as Medicare and Social Security.

Today, we need government spending now more than ever. With the external sector in deficit (and likely to stay that way) and the private sector deeply indebted, the national government has to run a deficit to support growth. Deficit hawks will invariably be frustrated in their goal of shrinking the deficit because as the federal government tries to run a surplus (the stated policy aim), it will end up running a deficit anyway -- courtesy of the automatic stabilizers. Ultimately, though, it will oversee an even sicker economy than it already exists today.

Marshall Auerback is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator.

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