Super PACs Keep Zombie Candidates Alive

Jan 11, 2012Mark Schmitt

Candidates used to worry that their funding wouldn't match their support. Now money keeps them shambling forward long after the voters have fled.

Candidates used to worry that their funding wouldn't match their support. Now money keeps them shambling forward long after the voters have fled.

Robert Farmer, a legendary Democratic fundraiser of the 1980s and 1990s, once described how presidential campaigns ended: "People don't lose campaigns. They run out of money and can't get their planes in the air. That's the reality." Most candidates would run out of money long before they ran out of potential votes or plausible paths to victory. The winner of the nomination would often be the candidate with enough financial reserves to keep going when the others couldn't afford jet fuel, and Farmer's skill was in making sure that his candidates -- Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- had that advantage.

That was the reality in 1992, but it's not the reality today, especially on the Republican side. On the day after the New Hampshire primary, we now have a phenomenon in which a number of candidates who really have no possibility of winning their party's nomination will keep going only because they can -- because the money is there, either in their own campaign accounts or in a Super PAC committed to supporting the campaign, such as the pro-Newt Gingrich group into which casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson recently dumped $5 million.

So whereas in the 1990s we had candidates who died prematurely -- they ran out of money while they still had a chance -- we now have, in effect, zombie candidates. They're alive and can spend money and attack Mitt Romney even though their actual political lives are over. Rick Perry is not going to be the Republican nominee for president. (He joins a short list of well-financed Texans, including John Connally in 1980 and Phil Gramm in 2000, who spent many millions of dollars to win one or fewer delegates to the Republican convention.) Newt Gingrich is not going to be the Republican nominee. Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum -- same deal. But they've got money and nothing to lose, and it seems they've all developed a personal distaste for Romney, so they will throw everything they've got at the nominee -- including attacks on his "vulture capitalism" at Bain Capital -- without regard to the consequences.

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In the old system, money really mattered. It made or broke campaigns. Mostly it broke them. But it was the lack of money that really shaped the system. It was an invisible primary in which many candidates were excluded either before it started or soon into it. In the mid-1990s, Gingrich declared in a congressional hearing, "There's not enough money in politics," comparing political spending to the much larger marketing budgets for cereal and toilet paper. It was a declaration as shocking to the right-thinking reformers as the Sex Pistols' version of "God Save the Queen," but Gingrich was right at the time. The perennial gripe about "too much money in politics," or its promise to "get money out of politics," didn't reflect reality -- lack of money shaped politics as much as money itself. This was an era when losing presidential campaigns ran out of juice on $10 million or so, and candidates failed to mount a competitive race for Congress because they couldn't raise $1 million.

But now the cliché of the past -- that there's too much money in politics -- has become a reality. That's probably going to be true on the Democratic side as well, definitely in the presidential race but probably also in many congressional contests. In a way, money matters less -- more candidates will meet the threshold to be competitive. But it's also moved to a scale where everything changes. Money becomes an end in itself. It shapes the behavior of campaign consultants, who can now become very, very rich. It's increasingly disconnected from candidates themselves or the incentives that might make sense for them. And it reaches beyond the campaign itself -- Gingrich is just one example of a candidate who is essentially in the race for money. His renewed prominence will generate speakers' fees, and book and video sales, that will continue to fuel his lifestyle. Politics no longer comes at a cost; it's a fundraising opportunity.

The post-Citizens United world of campaign finance obviously calls for some rethinking of solutions. My own reform preferences, which center on public financing, are best suited for a world in which lack of money matters as much as overwhelming money. And that's still important. But we also need to confront the challenges of a world in which "too much money in politics" is not just a stale cliché, but the reality. A bunch of zombie candidates attacking Mitt Romney with money to burn might be welcome for Democrats, who can use their research and language in the fall, but it's no more the ideal democratic process than was the old one, when candidates had to quit because they ran out of money, not votes. We need a campaign finance system that both limits the excesses and gives real candidates a means to be heard.

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Fellows Program at the Roosevelt Institute.

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One Week in Money in Politics: Two New Solutions, One Big Problem

Jan 6, 2012Mark Schmitt

Iowa put the full power of SuperPACs on display. So now the question remains: what meaningful reforms should we fight for to stem the tide of unaccountable money?

What a week it's been for campaign finance wonks:

Iowa put the full power of SuperPACs on display. So now the question remains: what meaningful reforms should we fight for to stem the tide of unaccountable money?

What a week it's been for campaign finance wonks:

  • On Monday, the Montana Supreme Court went toe-to-toe with their counterparts in Washington, D.C., upholding the state's longstanding ban on corporate expenditures in ballot initiatives.
  • On Tuesday, the Iowa Republican caucus became the "first SuperPAC election," won not so much by Mitt Romney as by an independent committee that filled the airwaves with $4 million in ads demolishing Romney's strongest rival, knocking Newt Gingrich from a solid lead to fourth place in less than a month. For a few days before his aides set up a SuperPAC of their own, Gingrich, the only Speaker of the House to be fined for ethics violations related to campaign finance, sounded like a convert to reform, claiming that he'd been a victim of "Romney-boating," echoing the "Swift Boat" attacks by an independent committee on 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.
  • On Wednesday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo endorsed a public-financing system for New York state elections, modeled on New York City's matching system, exactly the reform I've been pushing for six years. New York City's admirable system stands in stark contrast to the state's. A the state level candidates get a lower percentage of their contributions from small donors than in any other and the corruption of Albany has been taken for granted for so long that few imagined we'd see the day when a sitting governor, at the peak of his power, would take up the cause of reform.

So where do things stand at the end of this week? Let's start with the SuperPAC problem. What did we learn? Not that SuperPACs -- independent organizations formed to support a candidate, which can take unlimited and corporate contributions -- are a big deal and can spend a lot of money. We knew that. The big news was that "independence" is meaningless, even when SuperPACs obey the letter of the law prohibiting "coordination" with candidates.

Gingrich accused Romney in effect of lying about coordinating with the committee that supported him. As the election law professor and blogger Rick Hasen argued, Gingrich is accusing Romney of doing something that would get him in "very serious legal trouble," and that Romney probably didn't do. But that's the point -- there really was no need for coordination. Romney's allies knew what needed to be done, as did the people in charge of Rick Perry's SuperPAC, Rick Santorum's, Jon Huntsman's, and the several that have been formed to support Barack Obama, Senate and House Democrats, and other Republicans.

Once, long ago, there was some hope that the requirement that such committees remain independent of the candidates they supported would provide a small protection from the worst imaginable results post-Citizens United. Candidates, it was assumed, would rather control their own campaigns, would rather speak for themselves than let someone else do it. But perhaps as a result of an arms race -- everyone needs a SuperPAC because everyone else has one -- candidates have happily shifted a large portion of their communication with voters over to independent groups that they can't control. As long as those groups have no interest other than the candidate (unlike, say, an environmental group that might support a candidate but also want to get its own issues on the agenda), the candidates have nothing to fear from independence. Regulations on coordination, then, are irrelevant.

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Once this truth is out there's not much to stop it, and money in politics is going to look very different in 2012 than it did even a few years ago. Not all of this is a result of the letter of the Citizens United decision. Some of it is just the general tone that the Supreme Court set, some of it is a failure of enforcement by the Federal Elections Commission, and some is the abandonment of any enforcement by the Internal Revenue Service of the political use of 501(c)4 non-profits, which cannot have elections as their "primary purpose." As a result, we have a perfect storm of everything you don't want in money in politics: No limits. No limits on sources of money, including corporations. No disclosure. And no accountability -- candidates aren't responsible for negative ads run on their behalf. (The "I stand behind this message" disclaimer that we've all gotten used to, and that was a throwaway provision in the 2002 McCain-Feingold campaign reform law, has demonstrably toned down negative ads.)

So how do this week's solutions stand up to that perfect storm? Montana's court at least reopens the issue of corporate contributions and tells a clear story about the role of corporate money in a state in which a few corporate interests, such as the "Copper Kings" of the early 20th century, have been battling the public interest for decades. Perhaps the decision will embolden other states or force the Supreme Court to reconsider its decision with a set of facts that reflect real corporate power, not the abstract problem it faced when the corporation in question was just a weasely little nonprofit known as Citizens United. It will surely inspire those who advocate an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to either ban corporate contributions overall, redefine the corporation, or do some other, not quite defined, thing to reverse Citizens United.

But the constitutional amendment is really a distraction. It will take years, decades -- actually, to be realistic, forever -- and in the meantime, money will flow. Reformers' energies will be dissipated, and lots of liberals will be hesitant, with good reason, to amend the First Amendment.

The better solution stems from Cuomo's initiative. We have to change the incentives for candidates to look to small contributors. New York City's system provides a 6:1 match on contributions under $175 and encourages politicians to control their own campaigns, rather than let independent fundraisers call the shots. Cuomo's approach is fully constitutional, even under Citizens United principles. Where such matching systems and similar full public financing systems have been tried (Minnesota, Connecticut, Arizona), they work, and outside money or fake-independent sources have had minimal effect.

Is Cuomo's solution sufficient to take on the magnitude of the "SuperPAC election" as we saw it in Iowa? That's the big question. Once we've swung this far to the control of elections by quasi-independent big-money groups, can a few big changes in the incentives swing it back? It's not clear. But we have to get started. Hopefully in a second term President Obama will join Cuomo and once again be a forceful advocate for public financing, and the FEC and IRS will do their part to enforce the law. It will take a lot of work to unravel the mess that we've just created -- and in the meantime, a lot of people will get elected thanks to SuperPACs who won't want to unravel it. But if we are to have any hope of fixing the economy, enacting reasonable banking regulations, or reversing climate change, this is essential.

Mark Schmitt is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Fellows Program at the Roosevelt Institute.

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The Lesson the Left Can Learn on Inequality from Occupy Wall Street

Oct 17, 2011Mike Konczal

The protesters' particular focus on inequality is a perfect starting place for a progressive movement revival.

The protesters' particular focus on inequality is a perfect starting place for a progressive movement revival.

Right now Occupy Wall Street has favorable polling. So did the Tea Party at its beginning. As Seth Ackerman pointed out to me, once people saw that the Tea Party wasn't a new thing but this old, arch-conservative thing, one that wants to take our global historical moment and wage total war against public sector workers and uteri, they turned against it. One symptom that it was an old thing was the books that it circulated: from Hayek's underwhelming Road to Serfdom to Bircher Cold War tracts from the types who thought Eisenhower was a member of the communist conspiracy.

Ackerman noted that it isn't clear what will happen with Occupy Wall Street ideologically, if only because at this point the left-liberal project and progressivism more generally is chaotic and up for grabs. This makes for a fun, fascinating, and scary moment for a potentially insurgent left.

This movement is very focused on inequality. But why? A lot of different ideas have already surfaced. With so much of the debate about the 99% and the 1% framed in the context of extreme inequality, it might be worthwhile to step back and examine the liberal arguments against inequality and discuss what I see of them in Occupy Wall Street.

This is a great cheat-sheet -- a list of objections to inequality resulting from the high liberalism tradition from TM Scanlon's "The Diversity of Objections to Inequality" (article not free online, here's a summary). Liberals, in general, have five objections to inequality:

A sixth point will hopefully be added in the future: A more equal distribution creates a better economy. There's an assumption that the market, instead of creating concentrations of wealth and power that slow growth, assigns resources to where they are best used in both the short and long term. However, it is hotly contested whether income inequality causes crashes; researchers at the IMF found models where it can. And a whole other strain of research finds that equality causes growth to be more sustained (see summaries by Georgia Levenson Keohane and Brad Plumer).

As Scanlon is quick to note, only a few of these are necessarily egalitarian -- you can be concerned with relieving the suffering of the poorest without actually caring about disparity of incomes. And there is usually a huge emphasis on how the power referred to in number three is primarily a problem of electoral politics and policy instead of a problem of dominating, controlling power relations between individuals.

So where does Occupy Wall Street stand on these? What I find fascinating is that there is much more of a focus on forms of power and domination as opposed to the more general concerns of egalitarian liberalism, those focused on stigmatization and fairness. This is a healthy move for the debate.

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One of the major concerns you hear from people in occupations is that the political process has become fundamentally corrupted. This gets right at number three: Money has become so concentrated and such an overwhelming presence in our politics that we need some ways of reforming it at a structural level. The stakes are higher in Occupy Wall Street. The government blurs into the private sector, wealth is no longer a measure of contribution but instead rent extraction, and no party or individual can be trusted to work within the system. There needs to be a reboot. How did we get here? Hacker and Pierson's Winner Take All Politics is a good place to start when looking for the answer.

Another argument is that Wall Street itself is out of control. Having failed quite profitably in its sole responsibility -- allocating capital responsibly, not towards Pets.com, junk mortgage debt, strip-mining companies for short-term gains, and worthless housing stock nobody wants -- and then getting bailed out when it all collapsed, the sheer presence of the financial sector among the top 1% feels like a crime. This power is more ruthless than than that in the normal discussion. It drives the entire economy, and it appears to have just driven it off a cliff. For more, 13 BankersEconnedAge of Greed, and Wall Street from the 1990s all walk readers through this story.

What about the 99%? I've previously looked through the We Are the 99% Tumblr and found that the biggest emphasis was on debt, ranging from student loans to medical debt, and a lack of enough employment to get by month-to-month. Here inequality is less a problem related to the more traditional liberal concerns of fairness or the idea that a few are left behind, and more a problem in which inequality is making indentured peasants of a huge part of the population. Risks are shifted to individuals who are already struggling, opportunities and possibilities are ruthlessly revoked, employment is nonexistent, and month-to-month survival is a battle for more than the just the very bottom. Books such as Graeber's Debt: The First 5,000 Years approach this from an anthropological point of view. Other works include Elizabeth Warren's book on how fixed costs of the middle class drive even two-income families into poverty, as opposed to more general discretionary spending (read: "frivolous" spending), or Tamara Draut's Strapped.

This ties into traditional liberal concerns. Liberals want institutions that allow people to develop their talents and also ones that insure them against the bad luck of health and unemployment. These institutions have been unraveled, and their public nature has been replaced with debt. And when people involved in Occupy Wall Street talk about this phenomenon, they connect how debt functions as a new safety net with the experience of servitude and suffering. Not in a relative sense of inferiority and shame (although that's there too), but in actual deprivation and the feeling of powerlessness against creditors, bosses, and the top of the elite.

Indeed, these concerns are reflected in the format of the general assembly and other current, institutional characteristics of Occupy Wall Street. Without permanent, clear leaders, there is no one to arrest, corrupt, or otherwise take over. That address their concerns about political domination from sources internal and external. The focus on mass participation and consensus derives, in part, from inequality in political access. Resources and responsibilities are distributed in the most egalitarian manner because physical deprivation is just one bad month away for many in the occupations (indeed, in the country). Collective enterprises offer a potential solution to giving workers real power in the workplace, power that can be put into action across the country and isn't dependent on Obama and the Senate.

This strikes me as firmer ground on which to try and build up a resurgent left. What's your take?

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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The CFPB Stands Up to Banks' Overblown Financial Firepower

Sep 7, 2011Bryce Covert

Republicans claim that allowing Richard Cordray to head the CFPB imbues him with too much power, ignoring the immense influence on the other side of the equation.

This week's credit check: The 10 Republicans blocking Richard Cordray's nomination have received over $31 million in campaign cash from the financial sector. The median American family saw yearly earnings fall $5,261 over the past decade.

Republicans claim that allowing Richard Cordray to head the CFPB imbues him with too much power, ignoring the immense influence on the other side of the equation.

This week's credit check: The 10 Republicans blocking Richard Cordray's nomination have received over $31 million in campaign cash from the financial sector. The median American family saw yearly earnings fall $5,261 over the past decade.

The least remarkable part of yesterday's Senate Banking Committee hearing on Richard Cordray, President Obama's nominee to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), was Cordray's testimony itself. In fact, Republicans made it clear that his credentials are not what's up for debate. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) called a recent meeting with him "pleasant" and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) said he has a "good background." Rather, they want to debate whether his post should exist at all. Their reasoning? That having one person in charge of this new watchdog will imbue Cordray with far too much power. As Shelby put it, "No one person should have so much unfettered power over the American people."

But what of the power of the opposition, the banks themselves, who stand to have new oversight and regulation from someone on the side of the average consumer? If we're going to talk about power imbalances, we might want to look at what the financial sector can marshal against the American people. Elizabeth Warren herself, the originator of the idea for the CFPB, estimates that it will police a $3 trillion consumer financial services industry. And Wall Street, along with its other corporate counterparts, is doing pretty well compared to the rest of us. Corporate profits have taken in 88 percent of the raise in national income since the recovery began, while household incomes only took in 1 percent.

It's not just profits banks wield in this fight, however. That money can easily turn into lobbying and campaign contributions. As Ari Berman reported in June, "According to the Center for Responsive Politics, 156 groups -- the vast majority representing corporate interests -- lobbied the government about the CFPB in the second half of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. The list ranged from JPMorgan Chase to McDonald's." The Chamber of Commerce even has an entire division devoted to fighting Dodd-Frank, and it spent $17 million on federal lobbying in the first quarter of this year with a dozen lobbyists focused on just the CFPB.

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Individual Republican Senators are also getting lavish gifts from the financial sector while opposing its newest regulator. The 10 Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee, who signed a letter to Obama in May demanding debilitating changes to the CFPB before any candidate can be confirmed, have received over $31 million in campaign cash from the financial sector during their time in Congress. Meanwhile, Sen. Shelby himself has taken $6.2 million from the financial sector, including about $1 million from commercial banks. His top career donors include JP Morgan ($140,771), Citigroup ($109,199), and Goldman Sachs ($67.600).

Compare all that financial firepower to what's going on for everyday Americans. A new report from the Pew Charitable Trusts shows that nearly one in three Americans who grew up middle-class has fallen out of that group. It's not hard to see why so many people are moving down the ladder when wages have been heading in the same direction. While the financial sector is bringing in $3 trillion, the median American family saw yearly earnings fall $5,261 over the past decade, from $52,388 in 2000 to $47,127 in 2010.

Things are even worse for low-income families. Over the past 10 years, the percentage of children living in poverty has soared, increasing by 18 percent, or 2.4 million more, from 2000-2009. These children and their families are set to fall on even harder times, as states slash vital services to balance their budgets. They face the loss of unemployment benefits, income tax credits, and cash assistance, among other safety net supports.

Those who find themselves in such financial hardship have one place to turn when they can't make ends meet: debt. Credit card companies already employ a variety of tactics to entice middle-class families into debt and keep them there. But those tactics will be under strict scrutiny if the CFPB has its full powers. Low-income families often find themselves prey to unregulated non-banks like payday lenders and check cashers, but those will also come under the supervision of the Bureau.

The CFPB isn't taking on dictatorial powers. It's standing up to the formidable forces preying upon struggling American consumers.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor at New Deal 2.0.

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Rob Johnson: American Dream Can't be Restored with Sky-high Inequality

Aug 30, 2011

At a recent event at the Hammer Forum, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson joined Andy Stern to answer the question: Can we restore the American Dream? In his presentation, Rob pointed out that we can't simply return to our past, particularly given how much has changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. "The challenges are not just simply going back," he points out, "but drawing on the best traditions of our past to create a new vision."

At a recent event at the Hammer Forum, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson joined Andy Stern to answer the question: Can we restore the American Dream? In his presentation, Rob pointed out that we can't simply return to our past, particularly given how much has changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. "The challenges are not just simply going back," he points out, "but drawing on the best traditions of our past to create a new vision."

So what's changed since the boom times of the American Dream? For one thing, the financial system sucks up about 40 percent of corporate profits. "The servant of finance, which is supposed to serve the economy and the economy and markets are supposed to serve social goals, has become the master," Rob says. Another is our staggering income inequality. Between 1917 and 1978, 70 percent of GDP growth went to the bottom 90 percent of our society. Now that equation has all but reversed. Over the past 30 years, the bottom 90 percent has seen its income growth decline, while "one percent of the population is getting two-thirds of the gains," Rob points out.

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This inequality comes with high costs. Rob points to a study that shows a correlation between high levels of income inequality with such tragedies as higher mental illness, obesity, high school dropout, incarceration, infant mortality, and homicide rates, while public trust declines. Unequal societies are also far less likely to foster social mobility. And the U.S. isn't just slouching along with other unequal nations, but is a real outlier toward bad outcomes, Rob points out.

Yet in the face of all of this, the government continues to be in Wall Street's pocket, enforcing an austerity agenda even with soaring unemployment rates. So Rob has some sympathy with some of the Tea Party's motivations. "They look at the government as an insurance agency for the rich and the powerful with the premiums paid by them," he says. "Can you imagine belonging to a golf club where you paid dues but only the rich and powerful got to play the course?" DC should take a hard look at FDR's Second Bill of Rights, particularly given our high levels of unemployment. Otherwise, we have a big problem on our hands.

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Getting What You Pay For: Super Committee's Super-Close Ties to Banking & Finance

Aug 16, 2011Lynn Parramore

Quelle surprise! Bankers and financiers will be sitting pretty when the “Super Committee” decides where spending gets slashed over the next decade.

This just in: The folks at Maplight have released some disturbing numbers on who has been the most generous to the 12 members of the newly-formed Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, fondly known as the "Super Committee."

Quelle surprise! Bankers and financiers will be sitting pretty when the “Super Committee” decides where spending gets slashed over the next decade.

This just in: The folks at Maplight have released some disturbing numbers on who has been the most generous to the 12 members of the newly-formed Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, fondly known as the "Super Committee."

To recap, the Committee was formed by the last-minute debt ceiling increase deal reached by Congress and the Prez earlier this month. It's comprised of the following senators: Pat Toomey (R-Pa.),  Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.),  Rob Portman (R-Ohio),  Patty Murray (D-Wash.),  John Kerry (D-Mass.), and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Reps.  Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas),  Fred Upton (R-Mich.),  Dave Camp (R-Mich.),  Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), and  Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.).

Maplight reports that the 10 biggest organization contributors (this includes PACs and Employees) to Super Committee Members are...

Club for Growth $990,066

Microsoft Corp. $810,100

University of California $629,495

Goldman Sachs $592,684

EMILY's List $586,835

Citigroup Inc. $561,081

JPMorgan Chase & Co. $494,316

Bank of America $349,566

Skadden, Arps, et al. $347,356

General Electric $340,935

Hmm. Club for Growth, the biggest spender, is a rabid anti-tax and anti-government group boasting 9,000 members and dominated by Wall Street financiers and executives. And then we naturally find the big banks --the Goldmans, the Citigroups -- filling out the list. Guess how these folks feel about paying their fair share in taxes? The 6 Republicans on the Committee have sworn to block any tax increases, even on the banks that helped bring on the 2008 crash that caused this freaking deficit in the first place! But obviously their feelings take precedence over those of the American public, a quarter of whom are out of a job, underwater with the mortgage, or in foreclosure.

As Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Thomas Ferguson pointed out yesterday on this blog:

Congress is listening primarily to those who contribute political money, not the public. As a political slogan “No new taxes” was around long before the Tea Party. It is the mantra not of the public, but of a huge swath of super-rich Americans.

That's why when it comes time for action, squeezing pennies from seniors and sick people and socking it to working Americans will be on the table. Raising revenues from fatcats whose taxes are lower than they've been since Hoover was in office will not.

That's democracy in America, 21st-century style.

Lynn Parramore is the editor of New Deal 2.0, Media Fellow and Deputy Director of Communications at the Roosevelt Institute, co-founder of Recessionwire, and the author of Reading the Sphinx.

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Memo to New York Times: Data Shows That 'We' Are Not Responsible for D.C. Deadlock

Aug 15, 2011Tom Ferguson

Pundits should look at data, rather than mirrors, to find the real culprit behind the mess in Washington.

Pundits should look at data, rather than mirrors, to find the real culprit behind the mess in Washington.

After this summer's exhausting budget and debt ceiling follies, everyone who can turn on a TV knows that Congress is sharply polarized along party lines. But most pundits are way off on what causes it.  As I've pointed out repeatedly, too many of them miss political money's pivotal role in creating disastrous deadlock. The evidence for this isn't conjectural. It's in the data for any who care to look.

Virtually all polls, including those of organizations like CBS that poll with the New York Times, acknowledge that public support for cutting Social Security and Medicare is minuscule and that the "no new taxes" posture assumed by Republicans and some Democrats is repudiated even by most members of the Tea Party (for more polls, see here, here, and here). The public is not sharply divided on these issues. Quite the contrary.

But on Sunday, a Times analyst once again tried to lay the blame for D.C. gridlock on the public. Brushing aside the importance of political money, Sheryl Stolberg instead recycled familiar arguments from various analysts who argue that you and I are responsible: "If Americans want to know why their elected officials can't compromise...perhaps they ought to look in the mirror."

Analysts and reporters need to stop looking in mirrors and start scrutinizing data. There is little evidence that Congressional polarization is rooted in sharp differences in public sentiment.

The most popular theory about the origins of polarization is the "cultural wars" approach. In this view, American society has fractured into warring segments over a set of "hot button" issues. Our highly polarized politics, runs the argument, just reflects deep differences over policy and ideology that now separate Americans from one another-- differences that some television commentators profess to believe run deeper than at any time since the Civil War. But this just doesn't hold up. Quite like false 1980s claims that American public opinion had shifted markedly to the right and that Ronald Reagan's magic powers as a "Great Communicator" had established his position as the most popular American president of all time (see Ferguson and Rogers, "Right Turn" and Page and Shapiro, "The Rational Public"), this line is easily refuted by simply aligning data on public opinion over time.

As Morris Fiorina shows in his 2009 book "Disconnect", whether you rely on Gallup, General Social Survey, or National Election Survey data, sharp ideological shifts in American opinion are not to be found. Between 1972 and 2004, for example, even the much-touted shift in the percentage of the population styling themselves "liberal," "conservative," and "moderate" bounced very little. Between the 1970s and the 2000s, the "liberal" label declined slightly in popularity, but only by about 5 points. All through the period the largest category of people who expressed a preference self-identified as "moderates," while the percentage of people thinking of themselves as extreme conservatives actually fell. As Fiorina and Abrams comment in a 2008 study: "The percentage of exact middle-of-the scale placements was 27% in 1972 and 26% in 2004" (see "Political Polarization in the American Public" in American Political Science Review, 11, 563-589).

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Time graphs of the levels of these and similar measurements typically look like near-straight lines. If Americans were really becoming more extreme in their politics, the graphs would look quite different. To the extent any ideological change at all shows, Americans actually appear to be leaning slightly leftward. On some issues, such as same sex marriage, public opinion has moved sharply in that direction.

Given the mass of contrary data, analysts intent on finding electoral explanations for polarization typically appeal to some version of political "sorting" notions. The idea is that even if there is no basic change in the trend of opinion, perhaps the population is somehow shoehorning itself into more homogeneous political units that then battle out their differences. The most obvious suggestion, again much touted in the media, involves the gerrymandering of legislative districts. This is a testable hypothesis. Many have tested it. The upshot is that while some stunning examples of gerrymandering for partisan advantage certainly exist, such as the lurid Texas case that led to former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's conviction, many counter-cases can also be found. In general, redistricting cannot possibly account for the observed degree of polarization. This actually should have been obvious all along: U.S. Senate districts have not changed at all, but the Senate exhibits about as much polarization as the House over the same period.

Many other "sort" theories have been advanced. Everyone knows that Republican strength in the South has surged. But a substantial part of the population was more conservative there to begin with; they didn't change much. It also turns out that the sharpest increases in polarization occurred in the north and east. Most studies of geographic polarization thus end up concluding that geography has been at best a marginal factor.

Complicating the story by adding references to migration -- of African-Americans from South to North and whites to the South -- does not help much, either. The changes in each party's regional strongholds undoubtedly bolster dominant viewpoints in each party by, for example, increasing the ranks of relative liberals in the Northeast and conservatives in the south and west. So differences between the parties should grow more distinct, right?

Wrong. Fiorina's points about the lack of change in Southern opinion on policy and polarization above the Mason-Dixon line remain stumbling blocks. Pointing to all the intensely partisan Republican representatives who come from the Sunbelt is not an answer, but just reframes the question.

The one form of "sort" theory with traction actually undermines the logic of explaining political change over time through it. Studies by Fiorina and Levendusky are persuasive that individuals who hold specific "hot button" attitudes that political parties choose to highlight, such as abortion, gay rights, or stem cell research, tend to migrate toward the party championing those issues. But this research also shows that the phenomenon is miniscule -- usually only a few percentage points. In reality, huge numbers of people holding hot button attitudes continue to affiliate with the "wrong" political party. Most also do not change their broader ideological label when they drift. So the overall ability of labels like "liberal" or "moderate" or "conservative" to predict positions even in most sensitive issue areas is still usually limited.

The conclusion has to be that "sorting" was a minor part of all the sound and the fury that came with polarization; it cannot be the Archimedean lever that moved the American political world. That was political money.

As I recently pointed out in the Financial Times, a tidal wave of political cash that emerged in the 1970s has washed away the remnants of the old seniority system in Congress, drastically changing the way that body operates. In its place, Congress now uses a system of "posted prices" for selecting who serves on committees and assumes leadership positions. Individual members of Congress compete for key slots by raising enormous amounts of money not only for themselves, but for the national congressional and senatorial campaign committees. These are controlled by Congressional party leaders. The leaders' control of these committees, along with the vast fixed investments in research, polling, and media capabilities these committees maintain, gives them more leverage over individual Congressmen and women. It makes crossing party lines far more costly than, for example, in the nineteen fifties.

In dividing so sharply and refusing compromises, Congress is listening primarily to those who contribute political money, not the public. As a political slogan "No new taxes" was around long before the Tea Party. It is the mantra not of the public, but of a huge swath of super-rich Americans. In an op-ed in today's New York Times, Warren Buffett readily acknowledges this simple truth. So should reporters who purport to analyze the roots of America's current political stalemate.

Thomas Ferguson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Boston and Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. This essay borrows from his recent paper, "Legislators Never Bowl Alone: Big Money, Mass Media, and the Polarization of Congress."

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How to Take Our Country Back from the Money Men Who Fund the Tea Party

Aug 2, 2011June Carbone

line-of-american-peopleIf there is a silver lining to the debt limit crisis -- and it's a big if -- it would be that the extremism of Republican agenda has finely become visible to a larger number of Americans. It is time to recognize what it means to face a determined ideological bloc.

line-of-american-peopleIf there is a silver lining to the debt limit crisis -- and it's a big if -- it would be that the extremism of Republican agenda has finely become visible to a larger number of Americans. It is time to recognize what it means to face a determined ideological bloc. And what it means to fight back.

While New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman recently described the Tea Party as an American Hezbollah, Islamic terrorists would not have much clout without their funders in Saudi Arabia and Iran. So, too, the Republican right would be impotent without its behind-the-scenes creators. A small number of incredibly wealthy businessmen -- the principle beneficiaries of the Bush tax cuts -- have created an ideological machine determined to destroy government. Taking our country back, restoring pragmatism over ideology, and making government function requires making the deep pocket money men (and they are mostly men) visible and identifying their cause with the looting of the country.

The debt limit gridlock is simply the latest episode in a war on government that has been thirty years in the making. Many of us dismissed the genial, misguided Ronald Reagan as an aberration. We saw the Gingrich revolution as self-destructive and easily contained. We cheered in 2006 and 2008 as we reached that the conclusion that Bush, with his unnecessary wars and the financial crisis that was the predictable consequence of mindless deregulation, had discredited the Republican brand. Some of us voted for Obama over Hillary because we thought that with Bush and political maestro Karl Rove out of the way, Obama could transcend the partisanship of the Clinton years.

We were wrong. What we failed to recognize is the engine of Republican extremism is not Reagan or the second Bush or Gingrich. Nor is it some authentic voice of the Christian right or the disillusioned working class on the American "street." The engine of conservative ascendance is the ideologically driven money men who have built a single-minded political machine in the United States. In Winner Take All Politics, political scientists Paul Pierson and Jacob Hacker date the conservative rise to 1978, two years before Reagan. They identify conservative success with the ascendance of the Chamber of Commerce, which became a vehicle for right-wing business interests. They report that since the consolidation and channeling of conservative funding, Republicans have won an astounding 85% of closely fought contests.
Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow and New Deal 2.0 pundit Thomas Ferguson, a political scientist at U Mass, Boston, documents the effective sale of Congress to special interests. The Congressmen who raked consumer advocate and should-be populist hero Elizabeth Warren over the coals were the paid shills of the big banks she was willing to confront. Membership on financial services committees is now the product of the right campaign contributions. While public outrage may have led to the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill, it did nothing to contain the alliance of lobbyists and business friendly Republicans (along with more than a few Democrats) working overtime to water it down and block its implementation.

In the meantime, the Republicans have launched a campaign to rig the political system. Their campaign against unions is a campaign against the last remaining source of institutional support for Democrats. At the same time, they are engaged in a wholesale initiative to make it harder to vote. Who is most likely to be affected by these measures? The answer is clear: the poor, the young, the less educated, recent immigrants, in short, those mostly likely to be Democrats and most likely to be the victims of tea party budget cuts.

The Supreme Court is no different. The rule of law is all but dead in America. The same group that funded the Tea Party and the congressional financial services committees has stacked the Court and blocked Obama appointments everywhere else. While commentators focus on issues such as abortion or campaign finance, the Supreme Court reaches its ideological height in its consistently pro-business decisions. Three of the Justices (Scalia, Thomas and Alito) are the most extreme justices since the twenties. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy are only slightly behind. Together, the five have produced a series of nakedly partisan 5-4 votes.

So how are we (everyone to the left of Paul Ryan) to respond? In the New York Times this weekend, pollster Stanley Greenberg depressingly observed that the public gets it -- and the public response has been neutralized by the right wing ideological campaign. The public gets that Wall Street runs the country. The public gets that no one represents their interests. The public gets that both Bush and Obama serve corporate interests first. And the public responds -- incredibly to some of us -- by believing that government is the problem. As Tom Frank explained in 'The Wrecking Crew', the point of this ideological campaign is to prove to the public that government can't work and there is no better way than to make sure it doesn't. So how to respond?

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Greenberg argued that Democrats should adopt sensible policies to limit campaign contributions, tax lobbyist expenses, simplify the tax code, add fees to financial transactions and limit CEO compensation and executive bonuses. I wish! To accomplish these objectives, Greenberg needs a party that is not beholden to the same interests. To get there requires taking a few pages from the Republican playbook. Republican success has come from playing on the fears of the American public, making "liberal" a naughty word, and discrediting government especially when it works. According to independent observers, Obama's stimulus package saved jobs and probably prevented a worldwide depression; yet, most Americans think it was a failure. How do we combat propaganda? The answer requires seeing what we are up against and responding in turn.

First, we need to put a face on the enemies of the Republic. The true powers behind the throne are the money men. The Koch Brothers, leading right wing funders, are finally becoming visible. They own the largest privately held energy company in the country, with over $100 billion in revenues. It is one the country's ten top contributors to air pollution and a "kingpin of climate science denial."  The Koch Brothers fund a largely invisible network of think tanks, political front groups and advocacy organizations that have opposed Obama Administration initiatives from health care to the stimulus package. Charles Lewis, of the non-partisan Center for Public Integrity, reported that the "sheer dimension" of what the Koch Brothers spend sets them apart. "They have a pattern of lawbreaking, political manipulation, and obfuscation. . . .They are the Standard Oil of our times." Where do all those tax cuts go? We should emphasize just how much the tax cuts increase the Koch Brothers' ability to game the political system to insure their unaccountability.

Right up there with the Koch Brothers is Rupert Murdoch. He has finally registered in public consciousness as a result of the scandals in Britain. His minions illegally tapped the phones of the royal family, the opposition Labor Party, missing children and 9/11 victims, all while he supped with the Conservative Prime Minister. What he has done in the U.S. is comparable. He single-handedly funded the creation of Fox News, the primary source of information for 64% of the tea party and the single entity outside of the Bush Administration itself most responsible for the war in Iraq. He subverted the Wall Street Journal from a reputable, conservative, financial publication to an ideological force. Murdoch undermines reputable journalism everywhere he goes and insulates his media empire from effective oversight (or enforcement of the criminal law). His creations are much more effective than Pravda (the Soviet newspaper and propaganda arm) ever was. We must start by making these men and similar funders the face of conservative extremists. Conservative Republican and former Louisiana Governor Buddy Romer is running for the Republican Presidential nomination by disavowing large contributions. He is close to invisible in the polls. We should make visible the obvious -- every other Republican candidate is a stalking horse for the financial sector.

Second, we need to discredit the extremists as extremists. The Ku Klux Klan and the John Birch society are appropriately viewed as wingnuts. The Tea Party should be seen in the same league. Imagine if Democrats threatened the country's credit rating to pursue an unachievable ideological agenda. They would be called traitors; Vice President Joe Biden finally called them "terrorists" but only behind closed doors. The Tea Party has held the country hostage to a manufactured crisis designed to prove their ideological purity. At best, they are partisans who put their ideological commitments ahead of the country's. More systematically, they serve the interests of those who would destroy government effectiveness. John McCain, now that he has been safely reelected for what is likely to be his last term, has been one of the more effective voices against them. They deserve to be discredited permanently.

Third, the only way to discredit them is to link the money men to the extremist policies. Progressives are proud of their video showing the Republican attack on Medicare as the equivalent of pushing Grandma off the cliff. Their far more effective refrain is the one that links sacrificing Grandma to tax cuts for the wealthy. The refrain could be done through fill in the blanks. The Republicans want to sacrifice Medicare to protect tax cuts for the wealthy. The Republicans want to fire teachers to promote tax cuts for the wealthy. The Republicans want to slash Social Security to promote tax cuts for the wealthy. The Republican held the debt limit increase hostage to their efforts to protect tax cuts for the wealthy. The Republicans, whatever they do, are beholden to the money men the country should love to hate.

Fourth, the Democrats need to claim credit for government's genuine accomplishments. The public believes that Social Security and Medicare are successes. Somehow, it thinks that the extension of Medicare to more people is socialism. Obama failed to put an effective government (and Democratic) label on the programs that in fact produced the most results -- the jobs created by the stimulus for government infrastructure, the federal funds that staved off the need for state layoffs, etc. In Kansas, Republican Governor Brownback and Republican Senator Pat Roberts are claiming credit for a new federally funded Bio-Defense Facility even as they bash federal spending. Either the federal government should be getting credit for the facility or it should be on the chopping block.

Fifth, the Democrats need an overriding agenda. An easy one is the need to rebuild community and equality. Impressive empirical studies suggest that inequality necessarily undermines community health. It results in writing off large numbers as chronically unemployed, mentally ill, likely to abuse drugs or alcohol and effectively unmarriageable. It also makes it easy for those with six figure bonuses to escape accountability. The right wing extremism machine is possible only because the Koch Brothers can amass fortunes worth over $35 billion between them.

I am not optimistic. Naomi Cahn and I wrote a book on the family called 'Red Families v. Blue Families'. We expected it to appeal to family law scholars and women's groups. Instead, we received immediate attention from conservative family institutes. We were eventually invited to speak by same-sex marriage advocacy organizations. We never heard much from the feminist left. At first we were mystified. Then we realized that while there is a well funded network of right wing think tanks, the organized left -- and much of the center -- has starved on the vine for lack of funds. Same-sex marriage passed in New York State because Republican funders, who identify with their gay sons and lesbian daughters, supported the cause. Efforts that require limiting the influence of the billionaires we have empowered and insulated from accountability face an uphill struggle.

June Carbone is the Edward A. Smith/Missouri Chair of Law, the Constitution and Society at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She is the co-author, with Naomi Cahn, of Red Families v. Blue Families.

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Thoughts on Dodd-Frank Birthday: Everything is Broken

Jul 21, 2011Robert Johnson

The weakness of Dodd-Frank illustrates a crisis in governance that is sapping the vitality of the country.

The weakness of Dodd-Frank illustrates a crisis in governance that is sapping the vitality of the country.

Legislation is incremental. It is a reflection of compromise. Yet rarely in the history of the United States post WWII has legislation been so revealing. Revealing because, in relation to the velocity of circumstances that revealed the inadequacy of our regulatory framework, and in relation to the damage that was done to lives and living standards across America and around the world, this legislation did very little to rebalance the relationship between finance and larger society.

In essence, it was revealed that in this era of money politics people are basically defenseless against the concentrated power (even more concentrated after 2008!!) of the financial sector. As Senator Durbin exclaimed in a 2009 radio program, "[Banks] frankly own the place". The clarity of that thought was revealed by the contrast between the magnitude of the crisis and the harm that it has done, and the lack of meaningful reform in Dodd Frank. Real balanced legislation would have gone much further to curtail embedded leverage and complexity of instruments. Real legislation would have contained a mortgage modification dimension like the Home Owners Loan Corporation. We do not have those things because they would have threatened reported profits, bonus pools and campaign contributions. This is not just a problem of government, as distinct from the private sector, it is a problem of the governance of the concentrated powerful interests who spent years shaping legislation and regulatory enforcement to unshackle themselves until they imparted great harm to the rest of society and handed it a bill for the cleanup.

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This is not a problem of governance that is confined to the financial services industry. It was also in evidence in the healthcare legislation where insurance and pharmaceutical interests had their way. It is true in the realm of national security where analysts lament that our force structure is still oriented toward a threat paradigm from the cold war and that we cannot respond because of the providers of pork. This is not a problem of the Democratic party. No, the Republican party was feeding at the same fundraising trough throughout the Dodd-Frank deliberations. This is a problem of governance that is harming a broad range of what has been the quality of life and vitality of the United States of America. If Dodd Frank's weakness makes that one point clear by unmasking this ugly process, then it has the potential to be of value. On the other hand, its weak result, which diminished trust in government, may serve to feed the anti-government sentiments. In that case, it could mark a foundational episode in the deterioration of America.

Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Can Money Talk for Women as it Did for Gay Americans?

Jun 30, 2011Lynn Parramore

The legislative victory for same-sex marriage was inspiration. But where's the support for women's fundamental rights?

Alva Vanderbilt Belmont once quipped, "Pray to God. She will help you." Belmont was a suffragette who used her social standing to push for women's rights in the early 1900s. She also had something else to use: money. And she wasn't afraid to throw it around to influence politics, donating big bucks to the suffrage movement and founding the Political Equality League to drum up votes for suffrage-supporting New York State politicos.

The legislative victory for same-sex marriage was inspiration. But where's the support for women's fundamental rights?

Alva Vanderbilt Belmont once quipped, "Pray to God. She will help you." Belmont was a suffragette who used her social standing to push for women's rights in the early 1900s. She also had something else to use: money. And she wasn't afraid to throw it around to influence politics, donating big bucks to the suffrage movement and founding the Political Equality League to drum up votes for suffrage-supporting New York State politicos.

If she were around today, Belmont would have found it pretty exciting to watch Governor Cuomo's fancy footwork on same sex marriage unfold as he mastered the dance of the quid pro quo. The giant photo in the New York Times showing gazillionaires huddled around Cuomo's desk said it all: The passage of the trailblazing law legalizing same sex marriage in New York was the result of Big Money talking to legislators and saying, "do this and ye shall be rewarded."

So how do we make it pay today to be on the right side of women's issues? Part of it is finding common ground. Some of the NY Republican donors had relatives who were gay, which, they said, put a human face on the struggle for equality. Wealthy Republican men also undoubtedly have sisters who have needed abortions, daughters who have faced discrimination, and wives who have required flex time at work when they have children. And, of course, some wealthy Republicans and influential pols are women themselves. In the current world of politics, however, money seems to speak louder than any other language. If we see such inspiring strides for gay Americans while women are under legislative siege, it's because money in support of women's rights is not being heard.

Join us at the Hamptons Institute July 15-17 to hear distinguished speakers take on today's most pressing issues!

Despite notable cases like like Belmont, women themselves have not always been great at pushing money around in politics. But there are bright spots. Today we have Emily's List, the political action committee dedicated to funding and electing pro-choice women. The name is an acronym for "Early Money Is Like Yeast" -- a saying which sums up the idea that getting lots of cash early in a race scares off challengers and lures in donors as the race goes on. Planned Parenthood is another example of an organization dedicated to women's rights that's capable of raising mountains of money.

Still, we have to be more strategic and aggressive in wielding our political clout.  Progressives might start by putting the heat on Republican women who voted to defund Planned Parenthood. Groups supporting women's rights could either organize a campaign against them, or go to such women and offer to support and protect them if they vote against their party, taking a page out of Cuomo's playbook.

Right now, conservative politicians work overtime to wipe out hard-won rights, attack Social Security, and hack away critical social services for children, families and seniors. On the issues critical to women's well-being-- reproductive freedom, equal protections, affirmative action, the Paycheck Fairness Act -- we have to make it costly for politicians to throw us under the bus.

And highly rewarding for those who don't.

Lynn Parramore is the editor of New Deal 2.0, Media Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, co-founder of Recessionwire, and the author of Reading the Sphinx.

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