Mike Konczal on “Fireside Chats”: Tough Times make Liberal Reform Tougher

Jun 5, 2012Danielle Bella Ellison

In the latest episode of “Fireside Chats,” Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal talks with David Frum, Daily Beast writer and author of the new novel Patriots. In the clip below, they take on why Democrats have had trouble gathering support for stimulus programs during the current recession. “We’ve gone from Speaker Pelosi and the new Obama presidency and the idea of this wave of progressive energy to really trying to fight between the center and the center right,” Konczal notes.

In the latest episode of “Fireside Chats,” Roosevelt Institute Fellow Mike Konczal talks with David Frum, Daily Beast writer and author of the new novel Patriots. In the clip below, they take on why Democrats have had trouble gathering support for stimulus programs during the current recession. “We’ve gone from Speaker Pelosi and the new Obama presidency and the idea of this wave of progressive energy to really trying to fight between the center and the center right,” Konczal notes.

As Konczal explains, “The real New Deal that we think of – the core economic security and managing the business cycle and so on – occurred in ’35,” when the economy was expanding. Meanwhile, “the conservative agenda to roll back the Great Society and the New Deal” unfortunately becomes more feasible in tough economic times like ours. The public becomes more risk averse and prefers austerity policies to big and potentially risky spending programs. Major liberal reforms, however necessary and beneficial they may be, are just very hard to pass during bad economic times.

The current grim economic condition, as well as the increase in media culture and accelerating ethnic change, have caused a transformation of American politics. Watch the full conversation below in which Konczal and Frum discuss this transition, what a Romney budget would look like, and the future of Obamacare.

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Bloomberg's Soda Ban Recalls New Deal-era Nutrition Programs

Jun 1, 2012David Woolner

Despite conservatives' recoiling at food and nutrition standards set by the government, they have a long and important history.

Despite conservatives' recoiling at food and nutrition standards set by the government, they have a long and important history.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s recent announcement that his administration plans to ban the sale of large size sugary drinks to combat the growing problem of obesity has once again brought the question of the government’s role in nutrition and public health to the forefront of the nation’s discourse. In a similar move earlier this year, the Obama administration announced that it was issuing new rules for the nation’s subsidized school meal program, which would add more fruit and green vegetables to school breakfasts and lunches, also as a means of combatting the growing problem of obesity among our nation’s youth.

Most Americans are highly supportive of these moves and regard the school meal program—formally the National School Lunch Program—with favor. But like so many of the social programs that we now take for granted, few Americans probably realize that its history and its relationship to concerns over the nourishment of the nation’s children is rooted in the New Deal.

Prior to the New Deal, at the beginning of the 20th century, it had become more and more obvious that millions of Americans were suffering from malnutrition. This fact was confirmed by the initiation of the military draft in World War I, where it was determined that a shocking number of young men across the country were ineligible for military service due to their poor physical condition. Equally important was the simultaneous realization that widespread malnutrition among the nation’s school children was having an enormous negative effect on the ability of millions of young people to achieve basic academic standards. Armed with this alarming information, an emerging class of experts trained in the science of nutrition began to argue that it was time to instigate programs aimed at alleviating this critical problem.

One of the suggested reforms was the initiation of a national school lunch program designed to help lessen the problem of hunger among the nation’s youth. The idea of serving hot lunches to hungry students in the nation’s public schools was in fact not new, as many progressive-minded reformers had been advocating for it for some time. One result of these early efforts was the establishment of privately funded school lunch programs in a number of American cities, including New York and Chicago, which by the early 1920s had been partially embraced by their local school boards. However, it would not be until the onset of the Great Depression and the subsequent arrival of the New Deal that we would see direct federal involvement in the issue.

Like many of the locally based public or private relief programs that were in place by the early 1930s, most establshed local and state school lunch programs found it impossible to continue in the face of the crisis that now confronted the nation. The devastating drop in local revenue due to the drastic downturn in the economy was one reason; a second was the inability of the millions of impoverished students to pay even the meager “at cost” fees that many districts charged in exchange for school lunches.

The economic collapse also meant that a good share of the nation’s farm production went begging for a market. Moreover, as surpluses of farm products continued to mount, their prices declined to a point where farm income provided only a meager subsistence. It soon became apparent that one way to tackle the growing problem of malnutrition among Depression-era young people was to link it to agricultural aid through the school lunch program. In 1935, therefore, under the auspices of an Amendment to Agricultural Adjustment Act, Congress passed Public Law 320, which created the Commodity Donation Program. Under its terms, the Secretary of Agriculture was provided the funds and charged with the responsibility for removing “price-depressing surplus foods from the market through government purchase” and disposing of this surplus “through exports and domestic donations to consumers in such a way as not to interfere with normal sales."

Needy families and school lunch programs became constructive outlets for the commodities purchased by the Department of Agriculture under the terms of this legislation. And as the food used for school lunches would not otherwise be purchased in the marketplace, farmers benefitted by obtaining an outlet for their products at a reasonable price. The purchase and distribution of the food was assigned to the Federal Surplus Commodities Corporation, which had been established in 1933 as the Federal Surplus Relief Corporation to distribute surplus dairy products, pork, and wheat to the needy. By March 1937, nearly 4,000 schools were receiving food and serving 342,031 children daily. Two years later, the number of schools participating had grown to just over 14,000 and the number of children being served had climbed to 892,259.

As was the case with many New Deal programs, the Federal Surplus Commodities Corporation employed special representatives in each state to work with state and local school authorities, parent teacher associations, and similar organizations in an effort to expand the school lunch program. These efforts were enormously successful, and by 1942 the number of schools participating increased by over 75,000 and the number of pupils participating exceeded 6 million.

As a further benefit to the economy, many of the individuals involved in preparing and distributing the school lunches were employed by the Works Progress Administration (WPA). The Community Service Division of the WPA employed thousands of needy women in nearly every city, town, and rural community of the country. The supervisory staff chosen to spearhead the effort to prepare and distribute the lunches was most often chosen from people who had special knowledge in the preparation of food. In addition, manuals were developed at the state and district supervisory levels, which did much to improve the quality of the meals served as well as to set standards for equipment, sanitation, and safety in the lunch program. A further benefit of the WPA’s involvement in the program was that much of the labor was provided without cost to a school district. As such, lunch prices were held to a minimum and more children were able to participate, with the result that the program expanded rapidly throughout the nation.

Not surprisingly, the onset of World War II had a significant effect on the school lunch program. The rise of defense industries, for example, resulted in a sharp drop in the number of people employed by the WPA, and in early 1943 the agency's activities came to a close. In the meantime, the enormous amount of food required to support the U.S. Armed Forces and the Allied war effort soon depleted farm surpluses, and the quantities of food available for the school lunch programs declined sharply. But by this point federal government support for the school lunch program had gained enormous popularity, both among the public and in Congress, and in 1943 the latter voted to authorize the funding needed to continue the program for another year. Similar laws were enacted in 1944 and 1945, so that the school lunch program continued in spite of the demands of the war.

Congress finally decided to make the program permanent with the passage of the National School Lunch Act of 1946, which among other things declared that “as a measure of national security, to safeguard the health and well-being of the Nation's children and to encourage the domestic consumption of nutritious agricultural commodities” the federal government would provide assistance to the States to provide “an adequate supply of food and other facilities for the establishment, maintenance, operation and expansion of nonprofit school lunch programs.”

The national school lunch program that emerged from the New Deal is just one more example of how the sensible use of nation’s national resources—including government revenue—may be used to improve our nation’s economic and physical well-being. In the years since the New Deal, however, the school lunch program has often come under assault from conservatives as too expensive. One result was an effort to privatize much of the program in the 1970s and '80s. As a result, many districts adopted “kid friendly” fast foods menus of pizza and fries while allowing vending machines – which dispensed the very sugary drinks Mayor Bloomberg is now limiting – to be placed within school buildings. Most experts now agree that this was a mistake and that, as was the case in the 1930s, it is critical for those in a position of responsibility to ensure that the food served to our young people meets basic nutritional standards.

Given all of this, it would appear that attacks on government nutrition programs follow the same pattern of our abandonment of the Glass-Steagall Act, our move away from proper regulation of the banking and financial sector, and our refusal to recognize the short- and long-term benefits of a massive infrastructure building program. We turn away from the common-sense ideas of the New Deal at our peril.

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute. He is currently writing a book entitled Cordell Hull, Anthony Eden and the Search for Anglo-American Cooperation, 1933-1938.

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Why the Unemployed Are the "Forgotten Man" of 2012

May 31, 2012Tim Price

Instead of finding a solution to the jobs crisis, today’s politicians are making life harder for the unemployed.

Instead of finding a solution to the jobs crisis, today’s politicians are making life harder for the unemployed.

The “Forgotten Man” may be most commonly associated with Amity Shlaes’s book of the same name, an alternate history in which the New Deal made the Great Depression worse. But back in the spring of 1932, while campaigning against incumbent President Herbert Hoover, FDR invoked the phrase in a now-famous radio address. In it, he called for a policy response to the Great Depression that would “rest upon the forgotten, the unorganized but indispensable units of economic power,” policies that would “build from the bottom up and not from the top down, that put their faith once more in the forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid.” The un-Shlaesed among us will recognize that the programs he launched once elected did exactly this, lifting up millions of Americans who had fallen to the bottom of the economic ladder – much to the chagrin of those still clinging jealously to the top rungs. But it seems there’s no such help coming to today’s forgotten men and women, the millions of unemployed Americans who our policymakers alternately overlook or actively punish for their misfortune.

It probably sounds strange to say that the unemployed have been forgotten when the state of the economy is the centerpiece of this year’s elections. But while politicians on both sides of the aisle talk a lot about the economy and jobs in the abstract, they’re easily distracted by minutiae and rarely seem to give much thought to the unemployed as living, breathing people. President Obama’s current economic plan seems to consist of reminding voters that Bain Capital once bankrupted a steel mill in Kansas, while Mitt Romney uses 8 percent unemployment as a cudgel against the incumbent but offers no solutions of his own besides something something tax cuts blah blah confidence.

Meanwhile, as Shaila Dewan reported in the New York Times this week, “Hundreds of thousands of out-of-work Americans are receiving their final unemployment checks sooner than they expected, even though Congress renewed extended benefits until the end of the year.” Over 5 million Americans fall into the category of long-term unemployed, meaning they have been out of work for over six months. Yet by next month, Dewan notes that over half a million of them will have prematurely lost their unemployment benefits this year thanks to cutbacks at the federal level.

At the same time, state governments are forcing new applicants to jump through more and more hoops to get out of paying them the benefits they deserve. Though 27 percent of all unemployed Americans received state benefits last year, Florida Governor and Observer-lookalike Rick Scott cut the number in his state to 15 percent last year by imposing particularly onerous requirements. The most extreme of these efforts was his attempt to subject unemployment applicants to a mandatory drug test, which was blocked (for now) by a federal judge. Florida may not give you your unemployment benefits, but by God, you’re going to give the Sunshine State your urine.

Given how many Americans are out of work, they would seem to form a natural constituency for politicians eager to win over swing voters. (That sounds cynical, but let’s assume for the sake of argument that altruism isn’t a major factor here. I know, it’s a stretch.) Yet instead of courting their support, policymakers are treating them like misbehaving puppies who need to be whacked over the nose with a newspaper. What gives? In part, this is due to conservatives’ knee-jerk opposition to government intervention and their belief that UI benefits can prolong high unemployment by discouraging recipients from seeking work. Studies have shown that UI benefits may be responsible for a fraction of a percentage point of our current unemployment rate, but Mike Konczal has a good rundown of why extending them provides a net economic benefit anyway. Aside from these policy differences, politicians in general just aren’t responsive to the needs and desires of anyone except for their richest constituents and Super PAC funders, who aren’t very concerned about whether some laid off factory worker in Ohio can feed his kids this week.

But there’s more to this conservative opposition than ideology or apathy. Cutting back on benefits is one thing, but why should they go out of their way to denigrate and humiliate the jobless? Mark Schmitt argues that Republicans found themselves adrift after they succeeded in passing welfare reform, since the “specter of the non-working poor could no longer be reliably evoked, and nothing with a similar power to divide voters has emerged to take its place.” But the economic crisis has proven to be a goldmine, providing them with a new underclass of jobless Americans whom they can portray as modern-day welfare queens. Look at these lazy slobs buying flat screens and diamond necklaces with their lavish unemployment benefits while the rest of us slave away at our hedge funds to make ends meet! “Much like arguments blaming the financial crisis on ACORN, Fannie Mae, and the push for low-income homeownership,” Mark notes, this approach “shifts the responsibility for unemployment onto the unemployed themselves.” For many politicians, this is the perfect one-two punch: it gets them the votes they need to win office, and once they’re in office, it takes away their responsibility to actually do anything about the biggest problem facing the country.

Back in 1932, FDR told voters that the Hoover administration had either “forgotten or it does not want to remember the infantry of our economic army.” Today’s Republicans, heirs to the Hoover legacy, would also like to obfuscate the crisis and make us forget the real circumstances of its victims. They know that if Americans see it clearly, they’ll also recognize that the only moral and practical response is one that provides more and better government aid rather than less. If progressive policymakers stop playing dead and start fighting back hard against these cuts to unemployment benefits, they may be surprised by how many troops they can rally to their side.

Tim Price is Deputy Editor of Next New Deal. Follow him on Twitter @txprice.

 

Empty pocket image via Shutterstock.

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Toward More Market-Oriented Financial Reforms

May 29, 2012Mike Konczal

In Joe Nocera's editorial today, "The Simplicity Solution," he calls for financial reforms to be more focused on solutions that are both simple and market-based. He draws on recent writing by Sallie Krawcheck who "lays out a handful of market-oriented ideas that would almost surely pare back the complexity risk posed by banks." Nocera goes through Krawcheck's reforms, which are focused on corporate boards and dividend policy for financial institutions.

In Joe Nocera's editorial today, "The Simplicity Solution," he calls for financial reforms to be more focused on solutions that are both simple and market-based. He draws on recent writing by Sallie Krawcheck who "lays out a handful of market-oriented ideas that would almost surely pare back the complexity risk posed by banks." Nocera goes through Krawcheck's reforms, which are focused on corporate boards and dividend policy for financial institutions.

I think people have a good sense of the arguments for simple rules in financial regulation. The clearer the lines are drawn, the less likely they are to be gamed, financially engineered-around, or ignored by regulators. As Elizabeth Warren noted in an interview with Ezra Klein, financial institutions "want layers and layers of complexity because it’s in complexity that there are loopholes. That’s where it’s possible to back up regulators who are not quite certain about the ground they stand on. And it’s a larger problem with our regulatory structure: Complexity favors those who can hire armies of lobbyists and lawyers." This is part of the big battle over the Volcker Rule.

But what about market-oriented reforms? What about reforms designed to make financial markets work better, more transparently, and in a way that prevents both cronyism and instability? The Roosevelt Institute's big financial reform program was named Make Markets Be Markets because we think that a focus on markets will be essential to the future of financial reform. There are two things worth noting: first is that the best parts of Dodd-Frank build on this insight, and secondly the first wave of battles brought by financial institutions were over smaller parts of Dodd-Frank, but parts that embraced market-based reforms.

If you look at the derivatives component of Dodd-Frank, it builds on the core essentials of New Deal financial reform for traded instruments: transparency, disclosure, clearing, capital adequacy, the regulation of intermediaries, anti-fraud and anti-manipulation authority, and private enforcement. The insight and practice is to set up the financial markets so that private entities regulate each other through transparent prices and adequate capital. Regulators need a gentler touch because they empower other parties to regulate the financial institutions in question. Clearing institutions make sure that counterparties are properly capitalized, something that was missing in the financial crisis; exchanges make sure that price information gets into the market broadly.

The same happens with the Consumer Financial Protection Bereau. The idea is to provide simple, clear rules across all firms for consumer financial products, regardless of banking charter, and let them compete against each other on price and product. Rather than racing to the bottom in terms of fees and mangled contracts, standardization of terms allows real market competition to take place. This extends across large parts of Dodd-Frank.

What's interesting is that, as I read it, the first two major battles over Dodd-Frank were precisely over these types of reforms. The first major lawsuit against Dodd-Frank, from September 2010, run by the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, was against proxy access. Proxy access allows "[a]ny investor, or a group of investors, with at least 3 percent of a firm's shares for three years...to nominate directors." It re-balances the relationship between dispersed shareholders and boards: it allows shareholders to hold ineffectual boards accountable for everything from business practices to executive pay.

Notice that no regulator is necessary here. Shareholders are granted the power to take these actions on their own, which they'll use their their advantage as necessary. Indeed, just the threat forces boards into action, even if no proxy access is formally held. And shareholders, representing their own money and interests, are going to be more forceful as de facto regulators than a handful of actual regulators staring at and trying to regulate board composition.

The other big initial fight was over "interchange fees." On the urgent lobbying of financial firms, Congress came very close to repealing the part of Dodd-Frank that dealt with these fees in 2011, but that ultimately failed. Interchange balances the relationship between vendors and financial firms in regard to the fees charged on credit cards. It allows vendors to price discriminate between credit and debit cards, and it moves debit cards to clear at par so that people's money actually reflects their transactions. Again, no regulator is needed here. Every small business owner who feels squeezed by financial firms' fees becomes a regulator in this case. Their ability to price discriminate helps keep interchange on credit cards from spiraling out of control in a way a handful of regulators sitting in Washington DC could never pull off.

Going forward, we need Dodd-Frank implimented in the simplest, clearest regulatory way. But we also need to make sure that it makes financial markets work the way they are supposed to and allows the market itself to be the best regulator. Financial lobbyists know this, and will respond accordingly.

 

Wall Street image via Shutterstock.

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How Long Will Grads Be Stuck Working In Cafes, Restaurants, and Unpaid Internships?

May 25, 2012Elena Callahan

Without government action, a generation of college graduates will continue to flounder in unemployment or minimum wage jobs.

Without government action, a generation of college graduates will continue to flounder in unemployment or minimum wage jobs.

While reading Robert Reich’s post the other day about the horrible economy the Millennial generation is graduating into, I wondered what my life would have been like had I graduated in 2008. That year, almost three-quarters of graduates found a job within a year. I was supposed to graduate in 2008, but I ended up switching majors, taking time off, and graduating in 2010. And what a difference two years makes. Now, like so many of those who graduated with me, I’ve yet to land a full-time job and have been lucky enough to string together part-time work and internships. Too many graduates face un- or underemployment and will continue to languish unless the government acts.

My graduation date was delayed because I was a dance major my freshman year, but I realized I wanted to make a difference in the world and felt that switching to the social sciences and humanities would be the best way to do that. As it turns out, though, the arts and humanities are some of the worst areas to study in this economy. According to an A.P. report last month, those who graduated with degrees in zoology, anthropology, philosophy, art history, and the humanities were among those least likely to find jobs. Those who studied nursing, teaching, accounting, or computer science were better off. These things matter when 53.6 percent of college graduates under the age of 25 were jobless or underemployed last year.

These overeducated students are now occupying temp positions and taking jobs in the service and retail industries for a lack of better options. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in March that retail salespersons and cashiers were the occupations with the highest employment in 2011, and not far behind were general office clerks, food preparation, and serving workers like waiters, waitresses, and customer service representatives.

Those are some of the lowest paying jobs out there. Yet many students graduate with huge debt loads they need to pay off right away. According to the New York Times, the average load in 2011 was $23,300.

I don’t regret having chosen sociology as my major. It completely changed my perception of the world and broadened my understanding of why social problems exist. But it definitely didn’t employ me. Since I’ve graduated, I’ve applied to tons of jobs and internships, worked seven different part-time jobs, and volunteered and organized events when I’ve had the time. These jobs have included cafes, a bagel place, a bar, a restaurant, a boutique, and four different babysitting gigs. A lot of my friends have similarly worked at cafes, restaurants, and nanny jobs to pay the bills.

How will graduates succeed if they’re busy making lattes, mixing martinis, or helping customers try on clothes? Some, like myself, have decided that volunteering and interning is the next best thing. But not everyone can afford to take an internship, since most don’t pay and if they do it’s not very much. This ends up making the competition for finding a job even more skewed toward those who have the financial means to take the time away from other jobs. I may not come from a rich family, but I have the opportunity to take an internship where others don’t. As Tim Price recently pointed out, unpaid internships are not just bad for individuals but for the economy too.

So what’s the solution? According to another Pew Research Center study, the Millennial generation, more than any other, believes that government could do more to address our problems. Franklin Roosevelt implemented the Works Progress Administration during the Great Depression to employ individuals of all professions and education levels. We need an updated version of the WPA that can give everyone an equal opportunity to enter the workforce and live a dignified life. Over its duration from 1939-1943, it provided almost 8 million jobs. They mostly went to those who suffered long-term unemployment and 90 percent of the jobs went to those who were classified as needy. A program like the National Youth Administration, another result of the WPA, would also be effective in employing teenage and college aged kids with little education and opportunity. Employing those with and without a college degree is absolutely necessary for a healthy economy. 

I know a lot of inspired young Millennials who would be doing more if they had the opportunity, money, time, and resources. Getting everyone back to work, particularly the young, is a step in the right direction.

Elena Callahan is an intern at the Roosevelt Institute.

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The Insane Idea Hidden in the Debate Over Obama's Spending

May 24, 2012Mike Konczal

Instead of debating whether Obama is responsible for a spending surge, we should ask why anyone expects the ratio of spending to GDP to remain constant in a recession.

Instead of debating whether Obama is responsible for a spending surge, we should ask why anyone expects the ratio of spending to GDP to remain constant in a recession.

There's a recent debate about whether or not a federal government spending boom has happened on President Obama's watch. This was kicked off two days ago by Rex Nutting's post at MarketWatch, "Obama spending binge never happened." Nutting notes that "federal spending is rising at the slowest pace since Dwight Eisenhower brought the Korean War to an end in the 1950s." He argues that the 2009 fiscal year, outside the stimulus spending, belongs to President Bush, as it was four months into that budget when Obama entered the presidency. He draws on OMB's numbers, which you can access here.

As you can imagine, the right wing has gone into action. Here's "Actually, the Obama spending binge really did happen" by AEI's James Pethokoukis, which argues that you must look at the government spending as a percentage of GDP to see the increase. Now there's a technical debate about how to approach the numbers in the 2009 fiscal year, and there's a fair debate on how to understand the increase in automatic stabilizers, such as unemployment insurance. Do they "belong" to Obama, given that they were already starting up due to a recession that started in December 2007? And then there's the economic debate: shouldn't the proper response have been to run a much larger federal government spending program?

But underneath it is an insane debate about an insane idea -- that the government should keep a consistent ratio of government spending to GDP in a recession. The attack on Obama is focused on this number without acknowledging the crazy part of what this number actually does in a recession.

Let's run through a quick example to show why I think this is insane. Imagine a government spends 20 percent of GDP this year, there is no expected GDP growth in the next year, and the government will spend the same exact amount of money next year. And then imagine that GDP drops 2.7 percent for the year, as it did from 2008-2009, for this hypothetical economy.

Now even though there is no additional money spent, government spending as a share of GDP will go up. The number goes up if the numerator increases (governments spend more) or the denominator decreases (GDP falls in a recession). It goes up to 20.6 percent in this hypothetical example. If the government wanted to keep the 20 percent ratio consistent, it would have to cut spending. But in a weak economy, in the middle of a recession, the last thing you want to do is cut government spending -- that will make the recession worse, which will decrease GDP further. Then you have to cut government spending even further, which creates a nasty loop.

Federal government spending as a percentage of GDP went from 20.8 percent in 2008 to 25.2 percent in 2009. How much was GDP falling? If GDP had grown 3.4 percent as it had done the year before, instead of dropping 2.7 percent, spending as a percentage of GDP would have gone to 23.7 percent. That means a third of the rise in government spending as a percentage of GDP is a mechanical effect of GDP falling in the Great Recession. And if GDP didn't fall in the Great Recession, automatic stabilizers wouldn't have kicked in and there wouldn't have been the stimulus bill, meaning less spending.

It is worth noting that one reason why the Great Recession wasn't a Great Depression was likely because of the increased size of government spending in the economy compared to the 1920s.  Here's Josh Mason in a great post:

We always ask, why was the Great Recession so deep? But you could just as well turn the question around and ask why, despite initial appearances, did it turn out to be not nearly as deep as the Depression?
 
I can think of four families of answers....The second answer would be that the sheer size of government makes a Depression-scale collapse of demand impossible, regardless of policy. In 1929, with government final demand only a couple percent of GDP, autonomous spending basically was investment spending, especially if we think at the global level so exports wash out. Today, by contrast, G is significantly larger than I (about 20 vs 15 percent of GDP), so even if private investment had collapsed at the same scale as in 1929-1933, the percentage fall in autonomous demand would have been much less. (And of course that fact alone helped keep private investment from collapsing.) Interestingly, despite Hyman Minsky's association with stories about finance, this, and not anything to do with the financial system, was why his answer to the question Can "It" Happen Again was, No. Policy is secondary; big government itself is the ballast that stabilizes the economy.

And, for the record, it's a massive shame that government spending didn't go up more, reducing unemployment, getting the economy back on track, and ultimately really bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Curing the Causes, Not the Symptoms, of the Job and Debt Crises Facing Today’s Graduates

May 24, 2012David Woolner

The country is doing little to make college an affordable and realistic goal for American families.

We have believed wholeheartedly in investing the money of all the people on the education of the people. That conviction, backed up by taxes and dollars, is no accident, for it is the logical application of our faith in democracy.

The country is doing little to make college an affordable and realistic goal for American families.

We have believed wholeheartedly in investing the money of all the people on the education of the people. That conviction, backed up by taxes and dollars, is no accident, for it is the logical application of our faith in democracy.

Man's present day control of the affairs of nature is the direct result of investment in education. And the democratization of education has made it possible for outstanding ability, which would otherwise be completely lost, to make its outstanding contribution to the commonweal. We cannot afford to overlook any source of human raw material. Genius flowers in most unexpected places; "it is the impetus of the undistinguished host that hurls forth a Diomed or a Hector." –Franklin D Roosevelt

As has been widely reported in the press of late, students graduating from college this spring are not just facing a jobs crisis; they are also facing a debt crisis. The New York Times recently reported, for example, that the average debt burden for graduating college seniors is now approaching $25,000, with ten percent of all graduates owing more than $50,000 and three percent owing more than $100,000. Taken together, total student loan debt in the United States now exceeds $1 trillion—more than all credit card debt in the country.

Equally daunting are the job prospects that current graduates face. It is estimated that more than half of all 2012 graduates will still be out of work a year from now, as was the case for the 2010 and 2011 graduating classes. What is more, even those graduates lucky enough to find a job will earn wages far below their counterparts who graduated in the years before the Great Recession, making it all the harder for them to keep up with—much less pay down—their student loans.

Facing high debt, bleak job prospects, and low wages, many students (and parents) are asking themselves if the high cost of education is really worth it. Current statistics suggest that pursuing a college degree is still a good investment. The unemployment rate among 21- to 24-year-olds with a college education is roughly half what it is for those with only a high school diploma, and the lifetime earnings of a college graduate still exceed the earnings of those without a four-year degree. But if—as some economists argue—our economic problems are more structural than cyclical and high unemployment and low wages will be with us for some time, then taking on a significant debt burden in the pursuit of higher education may in fact be a mistake.

In light of growing concerns about student debt, the Obama administration is pushing a proposal that would require schools to provide straightforward, standardized information on how much debt students should expect to incur over the course of their tenure in college. In addition, a bill has been put forward in the Senate that would require lenders and college financial aid officers to provide students with better information about their borrowing options, including the difference in cost between federal loans and private loans.

While these are welcome steps, they really boil down to treating the symptoms, not the disease. The real issue confronting students today is not the value of a higher education, but the cost. President Obama alluded to this in his 2012 State of the Union address, when he argued that our nation’s colleges and universities should do more to bring down the price of tuition. He also urged the states to make education a higher priority in their budgets. But the truth is that over the past ten years, state support for higher education has declined by about 25 percent, while the cost of tuition and fees at state schools has increased 72 percent.

Like the growing disparity in wealth and income that has emerged in this second Gilded Age, this combination of the decline in state support coupled with the rise in fees for both public and private colleges has rendered the dream of higher education less and less affordable for working families. And, as we have seen, those who do choose to pursue their educational ambitions do so at a huge cost, a cost that is becoming more suspect in a society where good jobs with decent wages are becoming a thing of the past.

In the middle of the 1930s, Franklin Roosevelt confronted a society that was equally burdened by the perils of structural inequality. But he was not content to merely provide relief to those suffering from the despair of unemployment or the scourge of poverty. Indeed, FDR often characterized the relief measures he initiated as temporary. What really concerned him was the far deeper question of structural reform: how to rid America of the one-third the nation that was “ill-clad, ill-housed, ill-nourished.”

It was this motivation that led to some of the most profound pieces of legislation that came out of the New Deal, including the Social Security Act, the National Labor Relations Act, the Fair Labor Standards Act, and the National Housing Act. It also gave us such critical financial reforms as the separation of commercial and investment banking and the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation under Glass-Steagall, as well as the establishment of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Roughly ten years later, as the Second World War was drawing to a close, FDR returned to this theme with his call for “a second bill of rights”—an “economic bill of rights”—that would include not only the right to “a useful and remunerative job” with an adequate income, but also the “right to a good education.”

To make good on the latter, the Roosevelt administration passed the “G.I Bill of Rights” later that year. The G.I. Bill represents one of the most significant government-led commitments to higher education and job training in our nation’s history. Under its terms, returning veterans received a host of benefits, including full tuition and book and living expense payments for those wishing to pursue a higher education. For those not wishing to go to college, the act also provided support for vocational training. The impact of the G.I Bill on postwar America was tremendous. In the next seven years, approximately 8 million veterans would take advantage of the education benefits. As a result, millions of Americans who might never have dreamed of going to college were able to do so, Millions more enhanced their earning power and job prospects through the vocational training and other educational benefits.

Of course, the G.I. Bill was not free; it required serious expenditures on the part of the federal government. But for FDR and his generation, this was an investment in America’s future well worth making. It was, as Roosevelt liked to say, an investment in our nation’s most precious resource, its “human capital.” To neglect America’s human capital, to cut back on our support for education, was simply not an option, for in FDR’s view if “we skimp on that capital, if we exhaust our natural resources and weaken the capacity of our human beings, then we shall go the way of all weak nations.”

If we are serious about the need to improve our economy, keep America competitive, and provide a hopeful and prosperous future for our children, then perhaps it is time we confronted the real issue that stands at the root of the student debt and jobs crisis: the woefully inadequate level of public support for higher education. No doubt the deficit soothsayers in Congress and elsewhere will tell us that we cannot afford such an investment. But the legacy of the 1930s and 40s suggests quite the opposite. Thanks to the G.I. Bill and the many other provisions of the New Deal, the better educated and better paid work force that emerged in the decades after World War II made the American economy—and the American worker—the envy of the world.

FDR warned us that “no country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources.” Yet the unfair burden we have placed on this generation of Americans—a generation that increasingly sees little reason to pursue post secondary education at such high costs and falling gains—suggests that we have chosen to abandon this lesson. In doing so, we have done much more than merely turn our backs on the millions of young people who dream of going to college. We have turned our backs on America.

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute. He is currently writing a book entitled Cordell Hull, Anthony Eden and the Search for Anglo-American Cooperation, 1933-1938.

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Demand, Deficit, and Denial: A Simplified Case Against Austerity

May 17, 2012Robert Leighninger

President Roosevelt's legacy of public works programs offers insight into the importance of increased government spending to create jobs and restore the economy.

President Roosevelt's legacy of public works programs offers insight into the importance of increased government spending to create jobs and restore the economy.

It’s good to hear more economists talking about the foolishness of austerity in Europe and the United States. Some, including Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman, have been saying it for a long time, but the chorus has gotten louder recently. Still, I have yet to hear anyone put the argument in terms simple enough for the average citizen (including the average Republican not too tied in ideological knots) to understand. I’d therefore like to take a shot.

To reignite the economy, we need more people to buy things. For that to happen, we need to keep people in their present jobs, re-employ people who have lost jobs, and employ those just entering the job market. Once people are buying things, those who make the goods and services being bought will have reason to invest, hiring new workers and buying new machines that make things. They have no reason to invest now; there is no likely return on their investment.

Republicans have things backwards. They assume that investors will invest if we give them more money. But they already have lots of money. Why assume that giving them more will change their behavior? They’re not stupid (at least most of them aren’t). What they need is a prospect of profit.

Tax breaks aren’t any incentive. What good are lower taxes on income that you don’t have? What’s the point of hiring another worker if he or she will have nothing to do? Fewer regulations are equally irrelevant. This is why “uncertainty” and “confidence” (the claim that investors won't invest because they are uncertain what their taxes might be in the future or what new regulations they may face) are smokescreens.

What do you suppose investors would do if there were customers pouring through their doors? If goods and services were in demand and inventory was disappearing? They would not say, “No, I don’t think I’ll take advantage of this. I’ll forgo making a profit now because I don’t know what my taxes and regulations will be next year.”  More likely, the response would be, “Wow, we can sell more widgets now; let’s crank up production!”  

In the language of economists, this is a demand-side problem, not a supply-side problem. Republicans have been looking at the world through supply-side lenses for over 30 years and can’t see the total economy. They are blind to common sense.

So how do we get people to buy things? We can save good middle class jobs by aiding states so they can stop laying off teachers, police officers, firefighters, and other public workers. We can create new jobs with large infrastructure projects. There are so many things on the landscape in need of repair or replacement that it shouldn’t be hard to employ or re-employ millions of people. In 1933, the Civil Works Administration (CWA) put 4 million people to work in two months. 

But good heavens, this will cost money! Yes, it will drive the deficit to new heights, and deficits are worth worrying about. But a stagnant economy will not reduce deficits. Putting people out of work through an austerity campaign only decreases revenues and cripples our ability to deal with deficits. A robust economy will handle the problem much more quickly. Restarting the economy will be expensive, but we need to spend the money. If your house is on fire, you don’t tell the fire department, “Don’t use too much water, I want enough for my morning shower.”

If Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package hadn’t been weighed down with so many useless tax cuts, we might not be having this conversation. The experience of the New Deal is relevant here. At its beginning, 25 percent of workers were out of work; when World War II started, it was down to 10 or 12 percent. That is significant progress. And there would have been even greater progress had President Roosevelt not twice stalled the recovery he had created. In March of 1934, after it was only four and a half months old and employing 4 million people, he pulled the plug on the CWA in spite of the fact that even the Wall Street Journal noticed its effect on the economy. He just didn’t want to believe that it was going to cost so much money to end the Depression. 

Once he had replaced the CWA with the Works Progress Administration (WPA), and after his other giant public works programs—the Public Works Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps—were fueling the recovery, Roosevelt again cut back. Despite the crisis, he still believed in a balanced budget. This return to orthodoxy produced a recession that by early 1938 was looking like 1929. His advisors finally persuaded him to restore the works programs, and thus he ended the recession. Had it not been for these two crises of confidence, the employment rate at the start of the war may have been lower than 10 percent, and we wouldn’t be hearing these claims that it was the war that ended the Depression.

Once demand is stimulated through public jobs, private investment will return and private jobs will increase. A healthy economy can then deal with deficits. It will be costly to regain that economy, but if we don’t, we will have both stagnation and deficits. 

Robert Leighninger is faculty associate in the School of Social Work at Arizona State University, and author of Long Range Public Investment: The Forgotten Legacy of the New Deal.

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J.P. Morgan Will Keep Gambling with “Other People’s Money” Without a New Glass-Steagall

May 17, 2012David Woolner

FDR recognized that our financial system -- and our economy -- depend on a stable banking sector.

When I speak of high finance as a harmful factor in recent years, I am speaking about a minority which includes the type of individual who speculates with other people’s money…and also the type of individual who says that popular government cannot be trusted…

FDR recognized that our financial system -- and our economy -- depend on a stable banking sector.

When I speak of high finance as a harmful factor in recent years, I am speaking about a minority which includes the type of individual who speculates with other people’s money…and also the type of individual who says that popular government cannot be trusted…

High finance of this type refused to permit Government credit to go directly to the industrialist, to the business man, to the home owner, to the farmer. They wanted it to trickle down from the top, through the intricate arrangements which they controlled and by which they were able to levy tribute on every business in the land.

…They did not want Government supervision over financial markets through which they manipulated their monopolies with other people’s money.

And in the face of their demands that Government do nothing that they called "unsound," the Government, hypnotized by its indebtedness to them, stood by and let the depression drive industry and business toward bankruptcy. –Franklin D Roosevelt, 1936

The recent news that the nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, has lost $ 2 billion in trades over the past six weeks and is likely to rack up losses in excess of $3 billion before the dust settles has led to increasing calls for the resurrection of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act. Passed in the wake of the 1929 financial crisis that led to the onset of the Great Depression, the Glass-Steagall Act established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which virtually ended 1930s-style bank runs, and also separated commercial from investment banking as a further guarantee of the average American’s savings.

The latter provision was put in place because of the widespread consensus among lawmakers at the time that a) it would be a mistake to allow investment bankers access to funds that were guaranteed by the government, and b) that giving investment bankers access to federally insured deposits would undermine the whole purpose of the FDIC. The FDIC was meant to provide the average American and small business person with access to stable and secure banking services for savings, mortgages, and commercial loans. In layman’s terms, this meant that financial speculators would not be able to get their hands on working Americans’ money or mortgages.

Of course, much like today, a good share of the financial sector vehemently opposed those reforms. The president of the American Bankers Association, for example, insisted that the bill’s provisions for deposit insurance were “unsound, unscientific and dangerous.” But other prominent bankers, including Winthrop Aldrich, the president of the Chase National Bank of New York and precursor to JPMorgan Chase, argued in favor of the bill, including its call for the separation of commercial and investment banking. Aldrich even went so far as to insist that the “spirit of speculation should be eradicated from the management of commercial banks, and commercial banks should not be permitted to underwrite securities.”

Flash forward to today. The likes of former Citigroup Chairmen John Reed and Richard Parsons have admitted that the repeal of Glass-Steagall contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. The current Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon himself, has admitted that Chase made “a terrible, egregious mistake” in engaging in what he termed “sloppy” and “stupid” activity in the past six weeks. Isn’t it time we recognized that common sense regulation of the banking and financial sector is vital to the overall health of our economy?

Contrary to what free market fundamentalists have been telling us again and again this campaign season, the basic banking and financial structure that was put in place in the early years of the Roosevelt administration was not put in place to strangle the free market. It was put in place to protect the free market—and it did so with great aplomb for over half a century.

If we truly wish to restore the confidence and integrity of our financial system and protect ourselves from another financial disaster, then we will need to do more than merely instigate the Volcker Rule and the other half-measures contained in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Reform Act—half-measures, which we should note, Jamie Dimon and other titans of Wall Street have so vehemently opposed.

It would be far better to heed the advice of Elizabeth Warren, Robert Reich, and a growing number of economists and members of the business community that it is time to do what the British government is essentially about to do: resurrect the Glass-Steagall Act. Doing so would not only help protect the commercial banking industry from the vicissitudes of Wall Street. It would also reduce this size of the too-big-to-fail behemoths like JPMorgan Chase, who seem quite content to gamble with what FDR called “other people’s money” in their endless pursuit of greater and greater wealth and power.

David Woolner is a Senior Fellow and Hyde Park Resident Historian for the Roosevelt Institute. He is currently writing a book entitled Cordell Hull, Anthony Eden and the Search for Anglo-American Cooperation, 1933-1938.

 

Financial crisis image via Shutterstock.

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JP Morgan Proves That Size Does Matter

May 15, 2012Mike Konczal

Breaking up the big banks might not be the whole solution, but it could make resolution authority more credible.

Breaking up the big banks might not be the whole solution, but it could make resolution authority more credible.

Before we start talking about the advantages and disadvantages of introducing size caps and restricting business lines through a new Glass-Steagall, it is important to understand how very big the five biggest banks are. If you need a sense of how big JP Morgan is and why it is hard for it to "hedge" without moving the market, the graph below gives you a sense. This is a graph I put together during Dodd-Frank based on data that was floating around at the time:

When bills restricting size of a large financial institution have been introduced they usually put size in the context of deposit liabilities (what we provide a backstop for and what reflects consumer savings, expressed as a percent of all deposits) and non-deposit liabilities (what reflects a blunt measure of size and potential for shadow banking runs, expressed as a percentage of GDP). The SAFE Banking Act, which has been reintroduced, mostly impacts the six firms listed above. The original SAFE Banking Act had a cap of 3 percent of GDP for non-deposit liabilities for financial firms (2 percent for actual banks) -- a space that ignores over 8,000 banks to just focus on the biggest six.

Yesterday Elizabeth Warren sent out an email with PCCC calling for a new Glass-Steagall. Let's back up: what kind of regulation do we have in the financial sector? First, there's the background regulation that structures and forms the financial markets. How are derivatives treated in bankruptcy? How is capital income and debt taxed? How are contracts and corporations set up and enforced? And so on.

The second level of regulation is "prudential" regulation. Prudential regulation of financial institutions is the various ways regulators regulate banks. Capital requirements are one example. So is prompt corrective action, restricting dividends for troubled firms, etc. One reason to do this for regular banks is to act as a coordinator for dispersed depositors who are unable or unwilling to perform these functions. Another is that financial firms have serious macroeconomic effects on the economy. And another is to intervene in issues of asymmetric information. The everyday libertarian case against regulating a restaurant is "who would want to poison their customers?" As we saw in the last 20 years, Wall Street is comfortable not only selling their customers poison at a high margin, but taking out life insurance on them through the credit swaps market.

The third level is blunter, and that's strict prohibitions, either on businesses or on size. What are the advantages and disadvantages of adding prohibitions? One factor is simplicity compared to other forms of prudential regulations, but what else is there?

Resolution

Adding prohibitions can help ensure the end of Too Big To Fail. In this sense it works to amplify, rather than replace, Dodd-Frank's resolution authority.

A common response is that the problem with Too Big To Fail isn't that the firms are too big or too complex, but too interconnected. Matt Yglesias notes that in the context of resolution, prohibitions aren't that important: "we can't put investment banks through the bankruptcy process because it's too systemically chaotic. In that case, Glass-Steagall is irrelevant and what we really need is a new legislative mechanism for the resolution of investment banking enterprises. That's what Dodd-Frank is supposed to do. This all just backs in to the point that even though the phrase 'too big to fail' has caught the public imagination, it's never been clear that size is relevant."

But here's Martin J. Gruenberg, Acting Chairman of the FDIC, in a big speech last Thursday:

While there are numerous differences between a typical bank resolution and what the FDIC would face in resolving a SIFI, I want to focus on a few key differences...

In addition, the resolution of a large U.S. financial firm involves a more complex corporate structure than the resolution of a single insured bank. Large financial companies conduct business through multiple subsidiary legal entities with many interconnections owned by a parent holding company. A resolution of the individual subsidiaries of the financial company would increase the likelihood of disruption and loss of franchise value by disrupting the interrelationships among the subsidiary companies. A much more promising approach from the FDIC's point of view is to place into receivership only the parent holding company while maintaining the subsidiary interconnections.
 
Another difference arises from sheer size alone. In the typical bank failure, there are a number of banks capable of quickly handling the financial, managerial, and operational requirements of an acquisition. This is unlikely to be the case when a large financial firm fails. Even if it were the case, it may not be desirable to pursue a resolution that would result in an even larger, more complex institution. This suggests both the need to create a bridge financial institution and the means of returning control and ownership to private hands.
Resolution authority is an untested solution for a financial firm, particularly one as large and complex as JP Morgan. Size and complexity make a difference. If financial firms were smaller and more siloed, there is an argument that resolution authority, which is one of the core mechanisms of Dodd-Frank, would work more smoothly and be more credible.
 
Market Power and Competition
 
As Barry Ritholtz noted on the JP Morgan loss, "Simply stated, once you are the market, you are no longer a hedge." Size makes a difference in these markets, and by breaking up the largest firms you'd see reduced market power. In terms of size, Andrew Haldane argues that economics of scale in banking top out at around $100 billion, or signficantly less than a 3 percent GDP liabilities cap. Beyond market power, the largest banks represent a large amount of political power as well.
 
And in terms of business lines, Kevin J. Stiroh and Adrienne Rumble, in "The dark side of diversification," look at financial holding companies as they absorb different business lines in the late 1990s and 2000s. "The key finding that diversification gains are more than offset by the costs of increased exposure to volatile activities represents the dark side of the search for diversification benefits and has implications for supervisors, managers, investors, and borrowers." New business lines introduce new profits but also introduce new volatility. The more volatile a firm is, the harder it is for it to fail without bringing down the financial system.
 
Mike Konczal is a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute.
 
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