Is Simpson-Bowles Balanced? Take a Look at its Supporters.

Nov 18, 2010Jeff Madrick

The enthusiasm from moderate to hardcore conservatives for the deficit reduction plan underscore what's wrong with it.

The enthusiasm from moderate to hardcore conservatives for the deficit reduction plan underscore what's wrong with it.

I didn't quite believe my eyes this morning when I read an op-ed piece by Martin Feldstein in The Wall Street Journal. Obama caused the growing debt levels, he says. For you non-believers, here's the quote: "Much of the projected doubling of the national debt between now and 2020 reflects the spending and tax proposals in the president's fiscal plan this year."

Professor Feldstein, former Reagan economist and head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, is known for his sleight of hand. But this one is a beauty. How does he pin this on Obama? He basically calls the Bush tax cuts the Obama tax cuts. "The $5.1 trillion gross cost of the Obama proposals reflects the cost of making the Bush tax cuts permanent for individuals with less than $250,000..."

Does Feldstein really support a tax increase in this economy by rescinding the Bush tax cuts? He doesn't bother to take that on.

But he has more up his sleeve. He doesn't mention war spending at all. He doesn't mention the tax-plunging consequences of the recession, which Obama inherited from Bush. He doesn't note that the Obama stimulus package helped stop a recession and will probably result in a much lower deficit in 2011 and 2012, as Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi's model shows (Zandi was an adviser to John McCain).

The more honest Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has it basically right. The growing debt levels out to 2020 are due to the recession, war spending, and the Bush tax cuts.

The thrust of the Feldstein piece was a fairly warm endorsement of the proposals put forward by the co-chairmen of the Obama fiscal commission, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson. Glenn Hubbard wrote a still warmer endorsement in The New York Times earlier in the week. Both are members of the conservative team of Harvard economists -- students and faculty -- who now dominate the department. Their friendly endorsements suggest how ideologically right-wing the proposals basically are.

Feldstein does say the proposals don't cut social programs enough -- or soon enough. But both Feldstein and Hubbard like the proposal to sharply cut marginal tax rates. Hubbard, formerly George Bush's chief economist, never saw a tax cut he didn't like. He of course ignores the intrusive fact that the Bush tax cuts he oversaw resulted in a mediocre economic expansion, with falling wages and fairly tepid capital investment. Martin Feldstein has long been the clever godfather of the Harvard group, where Hubbard got his Ph.D. He must be smiling at the sharp cuts in marginal tax rates -- from 25 percent to 23 percent for top earners, some 15 percent in the middle and 8 percent at the bottom.

Alice Rivlin, a member of the Obama commission, and Pete Domenici, have also come up with a plan to cut marginal rates. You'd think there was some serious economic evidence to support the case. Feldstein, of course, warned vociferously that the Clinton tax hike on upper income Americans would be a disaster for the economy back in 1993. Austan Goolsebee, the politically moderate economist, now Obama's chief economist and formerly at the University of Chicago, showed how wrong Feldstein was. So did the booming economy that followed.

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No matter. On we go. Helped by little response from the press. Bowles-Simpson and Rivlin-Domenici claim we will grow more rapidly by cutting tax rates. They claim the cuts will not reduce tax revenues because they also propose to close tax loopholes and "broaden the base." Of course, closing loopholes is one of the perennially unfulfilled political promises of all time. If anything happens, we will get tax cuts and retain loopholes.

Rivlin-Domenici at least propose a VAT, a sales tax, to make up for some of the tax cuts. Some point out that in Europe, progressive income taxes account for far less tax revenue than they do here. Their high VAT does much of the heavy lifting. But Europe spends that money on highly egalitarian social programs, including free -- or nearly so -- health care, higher education, childcare, and adequate retirement programs.

Feldstein insists we must get the debt-to-GDP ratio down to 40 percent, and mischievously says the Bowles-Simpson proposal doesn't do it fast enough. I say "mischievously" because he must know that pulling still further right is good politics when it is time to compromise. But he must quietly love the 21 percent cap on government spending as a percent of GDP proposed by Bowles-Simpson.

With this limit, we have the excuse to cut social programs, notably Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. More than two thirds of the budget balancing is accomplished through spending cuts, less than one third by new revenue raising. The limit is an outrage. It is the average over the last forty years -- before there were soaring health care costs, two new wars, and the retirement of the baby boomers. And there is utterly no evidence that a 21 percent economy will growth faster than a 22 or 23 percent economy.

There are some good ideas in these plans, such as cutting military spending and tax expenditures, like the home mortgage interest deduction. But some of it is charade. Peter Orszag, the former Obama budget chief, made a case for the Social Security cuts of the Bowles-Simpson plan because they are "progressive." They raise benefits to the poor and cut them for the better off. This is blowing smoke. The very low end of Social Security recipients will be put up all the way to 125 percent of what is already a very low poverty line. Meanwhile, recipients merely earning in the high $30,000 a year bracket will have to give up benefits. Those in the middle, around $43,000 a year, will see benefit cuts of 15 to 20 percent over the years. This is progressive reform?

These plans are basically government bashing, especially the Bowles-Simpson trial balloon. Yet the media simply doesn't see the ideological take. As usual, they bend over backwards to give credibility to these ideas. The best example was a column by moderate conservative Ross Douthat in The New York Times, claiming the Democrats were now the Party of No for not supporting the good side of the Bowles-Simpson proposals.

These are not balanced proposals. If they were, Hubbard and Feldstein would never have been as supportive as they are. They'd be railing at the Obama commission. Of course, the final recommendations are still to come.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of The Case for Big Government.

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Schakowsky's Deficit Plan Shows How to Get Things Done

Nov 17, 2010Richard Kirsch

It's time for progressives to take the offensive on the deficit.

It's time for progressives to take the offensive on the deficit.

Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a member of the President's deficit reduction commission, put out a straight-forward plan yesterday that demonstrates what you can do if you believe that we need a strong middle class to build a strong economy. Unlike the recommendations of the commission's chairs, Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowls, which would hurt growth and long-term recovery by cutting supports to the middle class and increasing the wealth gap, the Schakowsky plan is aimed at spurring economic growth and closing our growing inequality chasm.

Schakowsky's plan has three components: cutting the deficit, investing in growth immediately, and closing the long-term funding gap in Social Security. Taken together, the plan would help short-term recovery, reduce long-term budget shortfalls while encouraging growth, and assure that Social Security is in good shape for the foreseeable future.

Schakowsky would cut the deficit through a combination of actual cuts in waste and inefficiency, such as eliminating a program that helps McDonald's market overseas and introducing energy savings to federal employees' computer usage. It finds savings from elimination or reduction in 20 specific defense programs. It reduces the amount that the federal government pays for prescription drugs and includes a robust public option in health reform. It also cuts farm subsidies.

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On the revenue side, she goes after corporate tax subsidies and wealthy individuals. Her biggest proposals would discourage corporations' over-reliance on highly leveraged financing and tax capital gains and dividends as ordinary income. She also includes raising revenues from cap and trade, with protections to help low-income consumers, which helps to reach another major policy goal: tackling climate change.

On Social Security, she firmly rejects proposals to cut benefits and instead proposes changes that would not only put the program on a firm financial footing for decades, but allow some benefits to be improved. She does this by raising the amount of income that is applied to Social Security and introducing a legacy tax on earnings above the cap, which would make the tax system a lot more progressive.

Finally, to help get the economy going now, Schakowsky's plan would invest in immediate job creation and protect against growth-killing cuts like shutting off unemployment compensation or federal funding to states for Medicaid.

Is her proposal dead on arrival with this deficit commission and Congress? Maybe so, but that's not the point. You can't win a debate with nothing. So next time someone says that we can't get out of this financial mess without "sacrifice," point to the Schakowsky plan and ask: Sacrifice for who? Here's a plan that will close the deficit by telling big corporations and the wealthy that it's time they pay their fair share. Plus, it will spur the economy, protect average taxpayers, keep Social Security's promise, and while we're at it, help prevent coastal cities from sinking into the ocean.

Time to take the offense. Let's run with that.

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute and is writing a book on the progressive campaign to enact health reform.

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Rob Johnson on Deficit Commission Report: Class War from Above

Nov 15, 2010

This Saturday, Rob Johnson took to the airwaves to discuss the deficit commission co-chairmen's mark and what it says about the current state of politics. He puts it bluntly: "I think it's class war from above." He goes on to explain that while it goes after spending caps and Social Security, it doesn't even begin to address two big issues: the military budget and soaring health care costs.

This Saturday, Rob Johnson took to the airwaves to discuss the deficit commission co-chairmen's mark and what it says about the current state of politics. He puts it bluntly: "I think it's class war from above." He goes on to explain that while it goes after spending caps and Social Security, it doesn't even begin to address two big issues: the military budget and soaring health care costs. He notes that the US spends nearly as much as the rest of the world combined on our military, some of it on outdated forts and weapons used in the Cold War. Plus we spend almost double what other countries pay per capita for health costs, yet we rank 38th in the world for health care. "You got to face down the military budget, you got to face down the health care industry, or the American people are not getting value for their money," Rob says. And it all goes back to the trail of money in politics. "We're in a situation where money drives things and people are even collectively somewhat powerless," Rob says. And in some ways this is pragmatic on Obama's part -- after all, Rob notes that "it costs nearly a billion dollars to run for president. In essence you have to sell policy in order to be able to garner enough funds to be reelected."

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The polarization is about the real underlying argument, Rob says: the right size of government. Unfortunately, "with the TARP bailouts... and large bonuses to people who were bailed out, the people who say government is part of the problem got an awful lot of very tangible fuel for their fire," he says. Check out the entire interview (starting around the 22:10 mark):

Saturday Morning Talkies - November 13, 2010 at 9:00am

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Banks Get Bailouts, We Get Shared Sacrifice

Nov 13, 2010Marshall Auerback

marshall-auerback-100If the government follows the deficit commission's early report, we really will saddle our grandchildren with burdens.

marshall-auerback-100If the government follows the deficit commission's early report, we really will saddle our grandchildren with burdens.

It all started so innocently: deficit hawks wanted to restore their credibility in the face of the global financial crisis and the comprehensive discrediting of their ideology. They slowly emerged from their caves, trying to re-engage in the policy debate by appearing reasonable. They started saying that "now we should have deficits," but soon (unspecified) "we will need surpluses" to "pay back the excesses."

As time progressed, however, the comeback attempts became outrageous and outright distortion entered the picture. Figures such as Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan (along with a whole host of Wall Street economists, whose employers had been large, albeit misdirected, beneficiaries of government largess) began to launch revisionist efforts to deny that fiscal policy had any positive impacts. Some went as far as asserting that government intervention actually worsened the recession by virtue of creating great "uncertainty", which allegedly held back business investment.

This latter development has now gathered pace and found its fullest expression through the US National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (an Orwellian title if ever there was one) established by President Obama. The Commission has proposed a $3.8 trillion deficit cutting plan that would trim Social Security and Medicare, reduce income-tax rates and eliminate tax breaks, including the mortgage-interest deduction. Yes, there are token cuts in Defense spending in the interests of "fairness", but the cuts are heavily skewed toward middle class entitlements. (Which is a deceiving word because it implies that we're just a bunch of weak supplicants, dependent on the graces of the government. Why don't we call these programs "enablements"?) The priorities laid out by the Commission are truly symptomatic of the degeneracy of our governing class compared to the days of the Great Depression. Grand projects started then are still delivering value to communities and private business interests some 80 years after their completion.

The financial crisis delivered significant empirical blows to mainstream economics, which has consistently downplayed the effects of fiscal policy. Along with the usual ideological hatred of government spending (except, of course, when it favored their particular industries), most of the supporters of this commission continue to trot out the usual fantasies of excessive government spending "crowding out" the private sector. They also cited the perverse idea of "Ricardian equivalence", which says the reason that the private sector is not spending is because it expects higher taxes in the future due to budget deficits, which will have to be paid back sometime -- so they are saving up to pay those bills. And anybody who has the nerve to challenge their ludicrous assumptions is castigated as being "stridently opposed" to any reforms at all.

Yes, some of us remain strident in our opposition to stupid, irrational policy that invokes financial, rather than real, resource constraints. What we need is a policy that puts unemployed people to work to produce output needed by seniors. Providing adequate Social Security benefits to retirees will generate effective demand, which will put labor to work. Just as the rapid growth of effective demand during the Clinton boom allowed sustained growth in the employment rate, even as productivity growth rose nearer to United States long-term historical averages, tomorrow's retirees can provide the necessary demand to allow the United States to operate near full employment. This is a "virtuous combination" of the high productivity growth model followed by Europe and Japan from 1970-95 and the high employment model followed by the United States during the 1960s, as well as during the Clinton boom.

Instead, we now have a commission where people are invoking a bogus "national solvency" argument to justify cuts in Social Security. They fail to understand that resource availability in the future will be enhanced by the fiscal outlays that are done now. Mainstream remedies to perceived budget blow-outs typically manifest as cuts to education, for example. Nothing could be more counterproductive to growth.

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As far as the national debt itself goes, those who want to paint the scariest picture possible use the larger gross debt to GDP ratio, which is around 90% of GDP. But that is highly misleading, because it includes the debt held in federal government accounts -- in other words, debt the government owes itself. This includes securities held in civil service and military retirement funds, Social Security, and Medicare, as well as unemployment and highway trust funds.

And Social Security has run large budget surpluses since the early 1980s. It has used those surpluses to accumulate treasury debt. In the future, the program will sell the bonds back to the treasury when Social Security revenues are less than its benefit payments. To all intents and purposes, Social Security's treasury holdings really amount to internal record keeping -- a sort of reminder that someday the treasury will have to cover Social Security's shortfall. The relevant debt figure is the treasuries held by the public.

The rationale for creating this actuarial accounting fiction can be questioned, but it helped establish the program's political legitimacy in its early days, by creating the illusion that Social Security was a "pay as you go" system, in which you take out what you pay in. In fact, it bears no reality to a private sector social insurance scheme. Those who argue, for example, that the debt owned by Social Security should be counted as part of our overall debt levels do so because it reflects a future obligation of government to future beneficiaries. However, as Randy Wray and Yeva Nersisyan have pointed out, the government has that obligation whether or not Social Security owns treasuries, and it will meet its obligations in exactly the same manner whether or not it holds treasuries, by electronically crediting bank accounts. That assertion might seem controversial to many (including the members of the Presidential commission on the deficit), but no less than the Chairman of the Federal Reserve himself has conceded the point. Ben Bernanke has long claimed that there are no technical limits to government spending (or, more specifically, to financing the fiscal components of monetary policy). In a now famous 2002 speech before the National Economists Club, he argued that the central bank can always finance government spending at no cost, under modern monetary arrangements:

Under a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero. . . . The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent) that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

Bernanke recognizes that the Fed finances government spending by electronically injecting reserves into the system and that there is no limit to its ability to do so. The Commission, however, persists in perpetuating the idea that the American government has run out of money. Meanwhile, American families have spent the past several years facing tough choices in their own lives because the market system failed. This was all due to lax government regulation and dishonest, irresponsible, and indeed fraudulent behavior on the part of the private sector, notably the financial sector, which stands to benefit from any attempt to privatize Social Security.

The deteriorating position of most American families has been exacerbated by the failure of fiscal policy to ensure there was enough spending to support their jobs and, hence, generate increased revenues (which would REDUCE the budget deficit). There are no consequences for the people who helped drive us into the ditch that the President loves to talk about. In fact, to extend the President's metaphor, the very car that veered off into the ditch has run over the people trying to climb out of it. Those victims, in turn, are being blamed for having dug the ditch in the first place. To repeat: the private sector should never spend more than they can afford. That means they should only run sustainable debt burdens and probably not be in debt overall as a sector. But the US government has the unique ability to support spending and employment while the private sector restructures its balance sheet. Policies that maintain high employment and minimize unemployment (both officially measured unemployment, as well as those counted as out of the labor force) are critical to maintain a higher worker-to-retiree ratio. Policy can also encourage today and tomorrow's seniors to continue to participate in the labor force. The private sector will play a role in all of this, but there is also an important role to be played by government.

Even on today's payouts, the vast majority of people will have almost nothing but Social Security with which to support themselves on retirement. The value of their homes has declined, their 401(k)s have been decimated, many have lost their jobs. Yet these are the very people being called upon to make sacrifices to preserve our "national solvency", even as the people largely responsible for this crisis sustain their jobs and lifestyle on the back of huge government bailouts. It is a mark of the degeneracy of our political and economic system that it looks set to succumb to the maniacal protests of the deficit hawks, who urge yet more destructive public spending reductions (how's that work out for Ireland, by the way?), which will drive millions more workers out of jobs. If one really wants to talk about "intergenerational theft" (a theme well beloved by the leading actors of this Commission), then it's fair to say that the government that adopts the recommendations of the commission will truly be guilty of crimes against our children and grandchildren.

Marshall Auerback is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator.

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Rob Johnson on Deficit Commission Recs: We Gotta Get Out of This Place

Nov 12, 2010Robert Johnson

The report is as fair a shake for everyday Americans as a rigged football game is for defense.

The Deficit Commission co-chairmen's report came out on Wednesday. The number of pundits and editorial boards who are trying to declare their first proposal as courageous or bold or balanced is testament to how silly the ritual has become. Many commentators are reveling in the fact that both the Left and Right are screaming.

The report is as fair a shake for everyday Americans as a rigged football game is for defense.

The Deficit Commission co-chairmen's report came out on Wednesday. The number of pundits and editorial boards who are trying to declare their first proposal as courageous or bold or balanced is testament to how silly the ritual has become. Many commentators are reveling in the fact that both the Left and Right are screaming.

What seems sad to me is how disappointing the analysis is. The scale of defense spending in the USA, as Chalmers Johnson has repeatedly pointed out, is beyond what any other citizen base in the world shoulders as a percent of GDP and adds up to approximately the defense spending of the rest of the world combined. So a little nip and tuck here is considered significant. Why do these commissions never ask what it is that all of this defense spending does for America?

The suggested Social Security cutbacks are similarly amazing. We are fretting over some problems that occur beyond 2037!!! This collection of wise men are ones that could not see the financial crisis right before their eyes in 2007, but somehow they are clairvoyant about the train wreck of 2037. Some, including leading progressive thinkers, have suggested that this will be good for market credibility. Since when do we need to appease markets that are charging 2.5 percent for 10 year debt?

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Raising the age of social security payouts seems fine until, as Paul Krugman points out, you see that life expectancy has only improved for those in the upper reaches of the income distribution.

Overall, this is predictable.

David Sirota may have said it best: "If you can admit the two real parties in Washington are not the Republicans and Democrats but the Money Party and the People Party, then you can admit that this commission is not a bipartisan commission -- it's purely partisan for the Money Party." These are money party recommendations from a Commission appointed by two money parties that survive on money to conjure votes through media expenditure in a money politics distorted framework. Commissioners are being treated as if heroic. Yet they take little real risk. Nothing surprising here. Shared sacrifice is the buzz phrase. Sorry, but in the money-takes-all American political system, this sacrifice is fair like giving the opposing team the ball on the 3 yard line and saying we have a fair game when they are nine feet from the end zone and 47 yards from mid field at the start. Sirota's People's Party is on defense.

As Eric Burdon and the Animals once sang:

We gotta get out of this place

If it's the last thing we ever do

We gotta get out of this place

Girl, there's a better life

For me and you

Rob Johnson is a Senior Fellow and the Director of the Project on Global Finance at the Roosevelt Institute.

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Jeff Madrick Blasts Deficit Commission's "Extreme Proposals"

Nov 11, 2010Jeff Madrick

Deficit Commission recommendations are a disaster in the making.

The draft proposal released as a surprise yesterday by the two chairmen of president Obama's fiscal commission is conceived and written in panic. It is a profoundly ideological set of policy prescriptions. The co-authors are counting on national alarm over the current budget deficit to make extreme proposals seem reasonable. It is an outrageous, misleading document, unsupported by evidence.

Deficit Commission recommendations are a disaster in the making.

The draft proposal released as a surprise yesterday by the two chairmen of president Obama's fiscal commission is conceived and written in panic. It is a profoundly ideological set of policy prescriptions. The co-authors are counting on national alarm over the current budget deficit to make extreme proposals seem reasonable. It is an outrageous, misleading document, unsupported by evidence.

The current deficit of $1.5 trillion is no reason for alarm. It is the result of the recession, which created large reductions in tax revenues, as well as increases in automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance. The Obama stimulus of $800 billion also is part of the deficit. But as a modeled by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, the deficit would have been higher without the stimulus.

The longer term deficit is also too often attributed to "big government." The projection of the Congressional Budget Office, adjusted for some realistic policy changes, such as the extension of the Bush tax cuts, is that the deficit will actually fall substantially to 4 percent of GDP and stay there for some time. Debt rises to 77 percent of GDP.

This increase is hardly trivial and a 4 percent deficit may not be sustainable. But increases are not the result of rising outlays for Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid, contrary to what many, including members of the media, seem to think. The higher deficit and debt levels are overwhelmingly the result of three factors: recession, war spending, and the Bush tax cuts of the early 2000s.

In the 2020s and 2030s, Medicare and Medicaid outlays will at last begin to rise rapidly because overall healthcare costs without serious reform will likely rise rapidly-by 2 percentage points a year more than GDP per capita. This compounds to high levels quickly. Social Security, however, adds rather little to this deficit, rising from roughly 5 percent of GDP to 6 percent over the years. Medicare and Medicaid rise from 5 percent to 13 percent of GDP and higher. Along with interest, the debt can mount to 200 and 300 percent of GDP. Healthcare costs are what America must deal with.

But the White House commission draft proposal goes far beyond focusing on healthcare. First, it wants to reduce radically the income tax rate on Americans. One option is to reduce the top rate of 35 percent to 23 percent, or at the least to 28 percent. This is simply right wing ideology at work, and has nothing to do with deficit issues. To the contrary, the authors are using deficit alarms to present a new tax agenda. Is Obama really going to stand behind it? There is no commonly accepted evidence that current marginal tax rates, or even higher ones, suppress economic growth.

Second, the proposal will also reduce to and maintain federal outlays at 21 percent of GDP. The CBO expects them to be about 24 percent. Why the reduction? There is no reason at all to do so, except an ideological one: less government is always better. Again, there is no absolutely commonly accepted evidence that higher levels of government suppress growth. Yet the proposal is willing to make painful cuts in programs to meet this spurious goal. And it will leave no room for more public investment.

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Third, the proposal's goal is to reduce debt levels to 60 percent of GDP and eventually 40 percent. To do so requires a deficit on average of 2.2 percent of GDP. Again, there is no evidence that debt levels of 60 percent are better than levels of 70 percent, for example. Reducing the debt levels to 40 percent is simply Draconian. One argument is to keep them low to be able to respond to emergencies, as the nation just did. It would be far better to devote attention to avoiding the extreme emergencies.

In fact, American can easily live with a debt-to-GDP level of 70 percent and a long-term average budget deficit of 3 percent. With that as a framework, sensible compromises on spending cuts and tax increase can be reached.

But most dangerous part of this toxic package is that it urges cutting federal spending substantially in fiscal year 2012. At best, the unemployment rate will be in the range of 7.5 percent at that time, which many will fairly still consider recessionary. That is not time to administer austerity. A far better tool, if one had to be deficit minded, is to start reigning in spending or raising taxes (my preference) when unemployment is around 6 percent. I'd wait until it is well down into the 5s. That may take more time.

This proposal is not likely to carry the day. But the surprise publication is a calculated political gesture to win support. And it may surprise the doubters. There are in fact some good ideas in it. The mortgage deduction would be reduced. It calls for a higher gasoline tax. The cap on Social Security taxes would be raised. Large cuts in military spending are proposed.

But these are made palatable only by painful cuts in social programs, far lower taxes on income and corporate profits, aggressive pruning of federal employees, and no talk at all of more investment in infrastructure, education or energy technologies.

In fact, the priority now is to get the economy moving again with a stimulus. Once that is accomplished, the nation must turn its attention to reforming healthcare, and raising tax revenues to support the public investment that will truly prove a foundation for future prosperity.

The current White House proposal is not merely preposterous, it will be a disaster economically if anything remotely like it is passed. It is a nation running backward in defeat, not looking forward to the challenges of a new century and rising competition around the world.

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick is the author of The Case for Big Government.

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No Year of the Woman: Female "Reagan Seniors" Reject Dems, Women May Lose Seats

Nov 10, 2010

At a post-election forum at Demos, "Will More Women Candidates Lead to More Women in Office?", four speakers analyzed the results and what they mean. Celinda Lake, President of polling firm Lake Research Partners, discussed data on women voters: the gender gap, the difference between the number of men and women voting Democrat, still remained substantial, she said.

At a post-election forum at Demos, "Will More Women Candidates Lead to More Women in Office?", four speakers analyzed the results and what they mean. Celinda Lake, President of polling firm Lake Research Partners, discussed data on women voters: the gender gap, the difference between the number of men and women voting Democrat, still remained substantial, she said. And despite the pre-election worry that women wouldn't show up the polls on the 2nd, they made up 53% of the electorate, which is about their average. So all of that pre-election worry may have been for naught.

But Lake pointed out some striking changes in voting patterns. Unmarried women went heavily for the Democrats this year, with 61% in their favor, while married women voted for Republicans by 43%. But even unmarried women's support for Dems shrunk -- in 2008, 70% of unmarried women voted that ticket. Meanwhile, fewer unmarried women showed up at the polls, making up 19% of the electorate, down from 23% in '08. As an example, that margin of difference would have delivered Alex Sink into the governorship of Florida, Lake pointed out.

Seniors were the group least impressed by Democrats all around. This isn't so much a new phenomenon, Lake says. "The Roosevelt seniors are gone. We've been with Reagan seniors for some time," she pointed out. So Obama lost the senior vote in 2008. But this year was even more brutal -- there was a 21-percentage point defection for the GOP, the biggest in decades. Indeed, while 61% of 18-29-year-olds went for Dems, 56% of women 60 and older went for the GOP -- the only female age group to go red.

Meanwhile, C. Nicole Mason, Executive Director of the Women of Color Policy Network, added that women of color voted overwhelmingly Democratic this year, even if fewer showed up than in past elections. The numbers back her up: 94% voted blue. Latino women in particular made a huge impact in the West, she said, carrying Democratic candidates to power particularly in Nevada and Colorado.

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Why did unmarried women stay home? Why are seniors upset? I've said it before, and Lake echoed the point: "It's the economy, stupid." Women are discouraged, she explained. They've seen their hours, wages, and benefits cut while their families rely more and more on their income. They express feeling stretched the max and their ability to roll with the punches has run out. In the midst of all this, a solid economic narrative never emerged to prove Dems were focused on building economic security for families. Instead, women felt that the discussions were all at the macro level and in favor of Wall Street. So, as Marie Wilson, President of The White House Project put it, "Voters aren't partisan, they're pissed." And women had a reason to be ticked off.

But while men may believe they won't need to rely on the social safety net, women know that it's very likely either they or someone in their family will, Lake explained. They see a role for government in protecting their economic security. They're concerned about Social Security -- women now start worrying about retirement at age 35 as their families raid their retirement funds, she pointed out. And they care about how health care reform will pan out. Eighty percent of women are the decision makers in their families on health care matters (a fact few men dispute).

Meanwhile, the story wasn't any better for women in office than it was for those at the polls. This is clearly not a year of the woman. For the number of women in Congress and governorships, the best outcome seems to be maintaining the status quo, while some undecided races may prove to actually lower the headcount, said Debbie Walsh, Director at the Center for American Women and Politics. That's the first time in 30 years that there won't be an increase. With an overall Republican sweep, the GOP missed the opportunity to catapult more women into office by not running enough of them and by conservatives voting out the more moderate GOP women in primaries, she added. But women disproved the notion that they would vote for a conservative woman because she was a woman. Walsh noted that of the six "marquee" female conservative candidates -- Christine O'Donnell, Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Sharon Angle, and Nikki Haley -- only Haley saw victory. It was not about the gender of the candidate, she notes; it was about the party of the candidate.

Check out the video from the event for full presentations:

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Why Republicans are So Intent on Killing Health Care Reform

Nov 8, 2010Richard Kirsch

It's not just about expanded care. It's about proving our government can be a force for the common good.

It's not just about expanded care. It's about proving our government can be a force for the common good.

Why are John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell so intent on stopping health care reform from ever taking hold? For the same reason that Republicans and the corporate Right spent more than $200 million in the last year to demonize health care in swing Congressional districts. It wasn't just about trying to stop the bill from becoming law or taking over Congress. It is because health reform, if it takes hold, will create a bond between the American people and government, just as Social Security and Medicare have done. Democrats, and all those who believe that government has a positive place in our lives, should remember how much is at stake as Republicans and corporate elites try to use their electoral victory to dismantle the new health care law.

My enjoyment of the MLB playoffs last month was interrupted by ads run by Karl Rove's Crossroads front group against upstate New York Rep. Scott Murphy, who was defeated last Tuesday. Rove's ads rained accusations on Murphy, including the charge of a "government takeover of health care." Some might have thought that once the public option was removed from the health care legislation, Republicans couldn't make that charge. But it was never tied to the public option or any other specific reform. Republicans and their allies, following the advice of message guru Frank Luntz, were going to call whatever Democrats proposed a government takeover.

There's nothing new here. Throughout American history, health care reform has been attacked as socialist. An editorial published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in December 1932, just after FDR's election, claimed that proposals for compulsory insurance "were socialism and communism -- inciting to revolution." The PR firm that the American Medical Association hired to fight Truman's push for national health insurance succeeded in popularizing a completely concocted quote that it attributed to Vladimir Lenin: "Socialized medicine is the keystone to the arch of the Socialist State."

In 1961, Ronald Reagan made an LP recording for an AMA front group called Operation Coffeecup entitled "Ronald Reagan speaks out against SOCIALIZED MEDICINE," in which the future President says that Medicare will be the foot in the door to a totalitarian takeover. Almost half a century later, Sarah Palin quoted Reagan's words during her speech accepting the Republican nomination for Vice-President.

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The famous "Harry and Louise" ads that helped sink the Clinton health plan railed against "new mandatory government health alliances run by tens of thousands of new bureaucrats" and concluded "if we let the government choose, we lose."

The Right has always understood how high the American view of the role of government would be lifted if people came to rely on government for something as essential to a person's well-being as health care. This year, the animus that the Right maintains toward the New Deal and Great Society programs and philosophy -- Social Security, Medicare, the constitution allowing the federal public to regulate commerce -- has become visible in the Tea Party movement. The last thing that the corporate and ideological Right want is for health care to be a new pillar added to the foundation of government social insurance.

While Republicans are wrong to call the Affordable Care Act a government takeover of health care, they understand more than many critics on the Left that the new law does profoundly change the relationship between Americans and the government and health care. The heart of the law is a government promise that health coverage will be affordable to almost all Americans, through expanding Medicaid to the poor, providing subsidies for private insurance to working and middle class families, or placing responsibility on medium and large employers to help pay for coverage for their employees. If the ACA is fully implemented, Americans will come to see they will no longer have to worry about going bankrupt, or being locked into a job, or going untreated for serious illness. And they will see that government, and Democrats, did that.

Now that Republicans control the House, they will do everything in their power to delay, defund and disrupt implementation of the Affordable Care Act. They will be assisted in that by another huge wave of advertising and Astroturf lobbying funded by groups like Rove's Crossroads, which will now have to spend as much on lobbying as they spent on political ads in order to maintain the tax status that allows them to operate in the dark, without disclosing donors.

President Obama and Democrats in Congress understood the historical importance and profound moral underpinnings of the new health care law when they enacted it earlier this year. And they knew that the right-wing attack had soured the public in swing Congressional districts and states on reform. They stood up then. They will have to stand up again, understanding that if they give way to Republicans, they lose more than the expansion of health coverage. They lose the best opportunity in half a century to prove to Americans that government can be a force for the common good.

Richard Kirsch is a Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute and is writing a book on the progressive campaign to enact health reform.

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Rob Johnson: Obama Must Heal the Economic Pain

Nov 8, 2010

In the wake of Democratic losses in Tuesday's elections, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson talked with the Real News Network about the results and the message voters sent to the president. Many areas, Rob notes, have been in "too much pain for far too long," and that will "register at the voting booth." He recalls an adage from his father, a retired physician: "When people are in pain, the way you heal them is first and foremost convince them it's transient." Obama needs to send a clear signal to the American public that he's going to find the cure for our economic diseases.

In the wake of Democratic losses in Tuesday's elections, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Rob Johnson talked with the Real News Network about the results and the message voters sent to the president. Many areas, Rob notes, have been in "too much pain for far too long," and that will "register at the voting booth." He recalls an adage from his father, a retired physician: "When people are in pain, the way you heal them is first and foremost convince them it's transient." Obama needs to send a clear signal to the American public that he's going to find the cure for our economic diseases.

Rob admits that Obama was dealt a tough economic hand when he took office. But the stimulus wasn't big enough or long enough, and the bailouts made it look like large institutions benefited over middle class and poor people, he says. So what's the solution? "I think he should be pushing very, very strong domestic infrastructure plan," Rob says. That $50 billion plan? Rob notes, "That's maybe one fifteenth of the size of what he needs. Maybe one twentieth."

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Meanwhile, the GOP has gained more power. Obama is now faced with a situation that pits "the philosophy of the New Deal versus the philosophy of the time before that with very little government involvement," Rob notes. The arguments over the size of stimulus spending is really about the size of the government. But Rob points out FDR "convinced people that government could make a difference and could be a positive influence in their life... The bailouts convinced people that Ronald Reagan was right when he said government was not the solution." He'll have to find his inner FDR pretty quickly.

Meanwhile, China's shadow looms large over the US, and scare tactics about its power are working. But perhaps we're taking away the wrong lessons. "The US economy is struggling and the Chinese are doing very, very well," Rob notes. "But the Chinese are investing in themselves, in their infrastructure, in high speed trains, in education, and the US is allowing these things to wither in large part so that wealthy people don't have to pay more taxes." This will only lead to workers' skills atrophying and more economic ruin, he concludes.

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Why Won’t Women Vote? It’s the Economy, Stupid.

Oct 29, 2010Bryce Covert

Men might be fired up, but many women only see how much more work needs to get done.

You can now count the hours until Election Day. In this home stretch, pundits, politicians, and people of all ages are trying to read the tea leaves. That the GOP will make big gains -- very possibly taking one, if not both, of the houses of Congress -- seems like a given. And that loss may very well be due in part to the lack of enthusiasm among women voters, who historically vote in large numbers for Democrats.

Men might be fired up, but many women only see how much more work needs to get done.

You can now count the hours until Election Day. In this home stretch, pundits, politicians, and people of all ages are trying to read the tea leaves. That the GOP will make big gains -- very possibly taking one, if not both, of the houses of Congress -- seems like a given. And that loss may very well be due in part to the lack of enthusiasm among women voters, who historically vote in large numbers for Democrats.

The polls don't look good. A recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 23% of women described themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" -- versus 38% of men. In September, Gallup found that 31% of women are giving a lot of thought to the midterms, versus 45% of men who are paying close attention. And a New York Times/CBS News poll found that not only are men tuned in and fired up about the midterms, but they are motivated by a sense of anger, whereas women are stuck feeling hopeless. All of this points to large swaths of women sitting it out on November 2nd.

Why are women staying at home, despondent, and men so angrily rushing to the polls? It's all about the economy. In a new paper for Public Opinion Quarterly, The Macro Politics of a Gender Gap, authors Paul M. Kellstedt, David A. M. Peterson and Mark D. Ramirez decided to study the gender gap in voting over time to see what makes it change. They first looked broadly at what affects "policy mood", or which direction voters are poised to vote in, and laid out a general trend:

When economic times are expected to be good, the public becomes more willing to take on the burden of higher taxes and spending on welfare. In times when the economic future looks bleak, though, the electorate becomes less willing to underwrite liberal policy and will move to the right.

Simple enough: when you have money in your own pocket, you feel more concerned with what others need. This could go a long way in explaining the anti-spending Tea Party craze gripping the country. But despite this trend, women tend to support what the authors call "compassion issues" such as social welfare, education, health care, racial issues and the environment. So, the authors conclude, "A policy change that might be seen as too liberal for the average man might seem like the correct amount of spending to the average woman." The gender gap increases when domestic spending becomes more liberal, and men are more prone to change their minds than women, who stay more stable in their party preference over time -- both facts pointing to men swinging to the Republicans faster than women in reaction to liberal spending agendas.

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Why might women be concerned with social programs? "Men tend to be less economically vulnerable than women, and they are less pessimistic than women about the economy," the authors note. Thus, we start to see a pretty clear picture of hopelessness. Women aren't feeling angry about a large deficit or stimulus spending in the trillions; quite the opposite, women tend to see how large the need is for more to be done to help those who are struggling. And many women are struggling themselves. Two-thirds of US families rely on a woman's earnings, burdening women workers, and women are suffering from unemployment -- the rate for single mothers has more than doubled since 2007 to hit the highest level in 25 years. Almost 14 percent of women are now officially living in poverty, which is the highest rate in 15 years.

And it's not just those who suffer the most that stand to benefit from the Democrat's policies. Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Ellen Chelser pointed out to me, "Dems are challenged to make voters, and especially women, understand that it's not others but they themselves that benefit from generous and just public policy." An example? "Health care reform has huge benefits for all women in terms of accessing affordable health care," she says. Both lower-income and middle class women stand to benefit economically. But that message seems to be lacking.

Meanwhile, this has been a brutal political climate. Talk of witchcraft and masturbation have crowded out nuanced discussions of how to fix our economic mess. As Sara K. Gould, President of the Ms. Foundation for Women, and Susan Wefald, EVP, noted in an op-ed for CNN, "What's missing, for most women, are the political narratives about the things that matter to them: good jobs, clean air, health care and what it will really take to rebuild our national economy." While hot air about a Muslim community center a few blocks from Ground Zero may motivate some voters, women want economic answers. "What our decades of work with thousands of grass-roots leaders across America have taught us is that women are impressed by solutions, not sound and fury," Gould and Wefald note.

The NYTimes spoke with one woman who probably summed up many women's feelings: "I just don't know who I can count on to move us in the direction I'd like to see the country go. Frankly, the financial problems are beyond our understanding." So when women don't show on Election Day, we may know the reason why.

Bryce Covert is Assistant Editor at New Deal 2.0.

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